Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

[Jason]

does that mean there might be difficulty hiring a president of the greek central bank, on account of all this stuff is going to happen again next year?

I would think anyone in a political or banking role in Greece has thought about their exit route. Private jet? Fast yacht in the marina?

I do like the idea of accommodating the EU representatives 40 miles from Athens. Where is that? Thebes? Corinth? Are we re-enacting Sophocles' Theban plays or the history of the Peloponnesian War?

 

[ConanTheBarber]

The dispute isn't about the price, quality or who has to pay it... it's even more silly.

Both sides, Greece and the institutions, agreed to negotiate IN Athen. But the hotel, organised by the greek government for the institutions, is 40 miles outside of Athen - and some say Greece already brakes the rules, before the negotiations begin.


More interesting are the plans for a "grexit" made by varoufakis and the former minister for energy...
In the case Greece would go default, they planed to hack Greek banks - to get control of all bank accounts - and arrest the president of the Greek Centralbank - to get access over all Greek assets.
A second bank system, with a second currency should get installed, to pay the pensions and salaries...
Only tsipras refused to realised the plan - I guess that's why right after the agreement for a third program varoufakis stepped down and the energy minister lost hos job

Do you have a source for all this, Perados?

 

[Perados]

@ConanTheBarber
Haven't read them, but the headline fits - if not, I only can offer german sources
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...Plan-B-for-Greece-awaits-treason-charges.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...exit-plan-not-so-secret-after-varoufakis-slip
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timwors...roufakis-had-a-scheme-all-along-a-secret-one/

 

[dandelion]

Presumably varoufakis is telling Greece they still have an option. And he still thinks they should take it.

 

[Jason]

Presumably varoufakis is telling Greece they still have an option. And he still thinks they should take it.

Have we considered that he may be right?

Greece is now an economic colony with a collapse in basic facilities, and the EU plan to continue this indefinitely. This cannot be right.

 

[dandelion]

I think we have considered it, yes. At length.

 

[Jason]

I think we have considered it, yes. At length.

I mean going beyond the consideration of this thread. The idea that a government wanting to escape the euro might hack its own central bank, arrest the head of the bank (on what charge?), default on all debts and for just fun call Juncker a terrorist. Are there times when revolutions are justified? Have Syriza been far too centrist in their approach, too conciliatory?

 

[rbkwp]

dont give up on Greece boys
thats how they got in the shit in the first place ..

Greece and the European Union: First as Tragedy, Second as Farce, Thirdly as Vassal State
By Prof. James Petras
Global Research, July 28, 2015
Url of this article:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/greece-and-the-european-union-first-as-tragedy-second-as-farce-thirdly-as-vassal-state/5465321

The Greek people’s efforts to end the economic depression, recover their sovereignty and reverse the regressive socio-economic policies, which have drastically reduced living standards, have been thrice denied.

 

[dandelion]

I mean going beyond the consideration of this thread. The idea that a government wanting to escape the euro might hack its own central bank, arrest the head of the bank (on what charge?), default on all debts and for just fun call Juncker a terrorist. Are there times when revolutions are justified? Have Syriza been far too centrist in their approach, too conciliatory?

Of course there are times when revolutions are justified. Did you expect I would post anything else? What democrat would disagree?

The difficulty is always in deciding whether a particular situation is the one.

I was talking to a native arabic speaker today. Lots of these judgement calls going on in the arab world. Is it helping? Choices, choices.

(now, does this post need more than 5 minutes further consideration?)

 

[Jason]

The IMF will NOT support the Greek bailout.

This is according to a leak that has been published by the Financial Times. The IMF will not support the bailout until the EZ "have agreed on debt relief". Additionally the IMF calls Greek debt "unsustainable".

Presumably this means there's doubt about unlocking further EU bailout funds to Greece. Presumably now the EU either has to contradict the IMF (and state that the debt is sustainable and therefore needs no debt relief) or accept a write-off of much of the debt. This isn't some deferred payment creating a fiction of a future payment but a straightforward write-off.

 

[Boobalaa]

The IMF will NOT support the Greek bailout.

This is according to a leak that has been published by the Financial Times. The IMF will not support the bailout until the EZ "have agreed on debt relief". Additionally the IMF calls Greek debt "unsustainable".

Presumably this means there's doubt about unlocking further EU bailout funds to Greece. Presumably now the EU either has to contradict the IMF (and state that the debt is sustainable and therefore needs no debt relief) or accept a write-off of much of the debt. This isn't some deferred payment creating a fiction of a future payment but a straightforward write-off.

Wowzaa! Battle of the Banksters..Now if they end up writing off the Greek debt, will other countries in the EU want a "Greek deal" , reminiscent of the banks in the USA during the "meltdown", asking for a "Jaime Deal" from the govt. , alluding to the deal the govt. made with Jaime Diamond Concerning Bear-Sterns and a "no recourse loan" from the govt. This non-recourse loan meant that the loan was collateralized by mortgage debt, and that the government could not seize JP Morgan Chase's assets if the mortgage debt collateral became insufficient to repay the loan.

 

[Jason]

Now if they end up writing off the Greek debt, will other countries in the EU want a "Greek deal"...

This is one of the problems with the idea of a write-off of Greek debt.

The other problem is that it is absolutely illegal under the Treaties. Now in fairness the EU has a very casual approach to law, and what everyone who reads the Treaties thinks is illegal and what really is illegal may be different. QE is illegal under the Treaties but now we have massive QE and it isn't illegal under the Treaties. If the EU nations wanted they could find a way of making this illegal activity legal.

Both of these problems are aspects of the idea of debt mutualisation within a single sovereign state. This was indeed envisaged by the architects of the euro - indeed the primary function of the euro was to create the "beneficial crisis" that would force the creation of a single sovereign state. France is indicating that this might well be the direction of travel, and Spain and Italy are likely to be sympathetic. Nothing can happen quickly (and anything that happens will be too late for Greece) but it is a possibility nonetheless. The big nation set against it is Germany.

A few weeks ago we all thought that the Greek crisis had reached a peak where either there would be a solution or Greece would leave the euro. The deal inflicted on Greece did appear to be a solution within the concept of a debt colony. However this is unravelling. The UN has suggested it may be a crime in international law. The IMF is saying it won't work and refusing to take part without debt relief. Greece is frustrating the process as much as any debt colony can. I think we must very soon be back to crisis.

There are solutions but they are all solutions that people say are impossible. Which impossible solution do we want:
1) Greece becomes entrenched as a debt colony, a practice illegal in international law and one which may even constitute a crime against humanity.
2) There is a proper write-down of Greek debts, as required to satisfy the IMF. This has to be a write-down (not a deferral), it has to be of debts owed to the ECB and EZ nations and banks, and it has to be huge, perhaps 50%. In effect this is debt mutualisation within the Eurozone, and if it is done once the markets will expect and require it subsequently.
3) Greece defaults on 100% of its debt and reintroduces the drachma. This would be difficult for Greece. It would be the end of the euro. It would create a global depression.
4) Germany leaves the euro and the euro is unwound in an orderly fashion.

Option 1 is horrific, yet this is what we are bungling towards. 2 is a bit better though it's just kicking the can - the problem will be back either in Greece or elsewhere and will be even worse. 3 is better still - but realise I'm saying a global depression is better than two other options. 4 is the only good option. Does Germany have the guts to do the right thing? Twice in the last century Germany has destroyed Europe. Now it has the chance to save Europe.

 

[dandelion]

Both of these problems are aspects of the idea of debt mutualisation within a single sovereign state.

Its simpler than that. If someone cant pay, then debt has to be written off. It will be written off eventually.

A few weeks ago we all thought that the Greek crisis had reached a peak where either there would be a solution or Greece would leave the euro.

No we didnt. im sure I said this would all go on endlessly despite deadline after deadline.

I think we must very soon be back to crisis.

The whole process is an exercise in deferring crisis to a more conveninet time.

There are solutions but they are all solutions that people say are impossible.

thus the strategy just mentioned.

Twice in the last century Germany has destroyed Europe. Now it has the chance to save Europe.

So you reckon germany can unite all the european countries in some organisation, for the sake of argument called the EU? because that is what is needed to save Europe.

 

[Jason]

No, I think Germany can lead the orderly break-up of the euro and with it the creation of an EU which is primarily a trading organisation, not a nascent nation state.

By the way a "convenient time" for a crisis strikes me as akin to a convenient time for a tooth ache. There's no such thing!

 

[Drifterwood]

No, I think Germany can lead the orderly break-up of the euro and with it the creation of an EU which is primarily a trading organisation, not a nascent nation state.

But this is not the democratic will of the people in the EZ.

 

[Jason]

But this is not the democratic will of the people in the EZ.

Eurobarometer reports that 57% of EZ nationals think that the euro is a good thing for their country, and 33% a bad thing, and this is October 2014. It is very likely that recent events will have reduced those in favour and increased those not in favour. While it would take a big change to reverse the figures, I don't think the euro can claim overwhelming support. The real way to test feeling would of course be in a referendum. The area is one where the public mood would be swayed by politicians. If in Germany politicians of all parties agreed that the best policy for Germany and the EZ is for Germany to leave the euro then I think German public opinion would back this.

The underlying problem is that Eurozone nations are not having proper internal debates about the euro. If Germany sticks with the euro then either:
a) there is debt mutualisation, and a single sovereign state is created; OR
b) the stronger colonise the weaker, with the institutions dictating fiscal policy in the nation states. This has happened in Greece, Cyprus, Ireland, Portugal and to some extent in Spain, and Italy, France and others are feeling the push.
In either event it would seem convenient to move the EU "capital" from Brussels to Berlin and re-name the EZ Greater Germany. Germany of all nations should be aware of the problems of this. The people of Europe will not accept this.

 

[Drifterwood]

You may remember why I fell out with Perados and EuroT all that time ago, Jase. It is true that the German economy slightly realigned itself for the Euro, but then boomed with the new partners having an equal currency and access to cheap debt. Suddenly every taxi in Europe was a Merc.

Conveniently the EZ had the UK to sneer at as Tony Blair took us into war with his tongue stuck up Bush's arse. We weren't in the club, worse we were collaborators. So programmed are many Europeans to have the UK as the pantomime villain that they even tried to blame us for their debt party coming to an end. But don't get me wrong, Tony and Gordon have left us a putrid legacy.

The difference is that we are independent and just about holding it together. If Germany deserts the leaking ship that they were helming, it would put the Mediterranean economies back to the 70's, and Germany can go back to being the bad guy.

 

[Jason]

If Germany deserts the leaking ship that they were helming, it would put the Mediterranean economies back to the 70's, and Germany can go back to being the bad guy.

This is about the best option there is.

If Germany doesn't desert then we are going to see a follow-through on the debt colony. Greece is the one in the news, but it's also Cyprus, and Spain, Portugal and Italy aren't far behind. France will be terrified into following Germany's lead. I don't think people in Germany or elsewhere have accepted the level of outrage against Germany. It won't just be Germany as the bad guy but Germany as the new colonial master exploiting the people of the Mediterranean for the good of Germans, and in the twentieth-century that cannot be accepted.

The Med back to the 70s? Maybe. Back many years anyway. But not back to the 30s.

The world needs a "least bad" solution to the euro crisis. We're up against human beings inability to take a loss but rather preferring to hold on. The least bad solution to the euro crisis may is the loss of a generation of economic growth in the Med and perhaps a decade in Germany - and a reasonably fast bounce. The worst case is a global depression with everywhere collapsing, and there won't be a quick bounce for anywhere.

 

[185248]

We have a floating Island over here for those that wish to jump ship over there. Just don't arrive in a leaky boat, you will find yourself on some deserted island along with Gilligan.....courtesy of the Aussie government , make sure you are able to pay the 'politically floated' immigration entry fee, and can answer a few but simple cricket questions. If you can farm sheep, sugar, dig huge holes and possibly speak a wee bit of English would be a help.

Sorry, but like you guys over there, we are sadly running out of places for those that can actually manufacture and create things.

A plus is.....Greece has very little effect on our economy....though China is finding it a little tough, because a lot of their economy depends on Europe's economy.

Now I know why the world is round...it goes around and around

Still, for just over 22 million people, we do ok.

 

[185248]

Honestly, I do not want to sound horrible here. But just say you were a worker in a factory that had the same number as the countries of the world.

If you fell over, died, became ill, and you were not actually producing a product the world could do without. I think the position could be filled by other eager workers quite quickly.

Just place it on an international level. Either Greece gets it's head out of it's own arse or it will be left behind, or someone else will take it's place. Then it will just become real estate. People will age, families will pass away, other nationalities will buy up their estates. Before you know it, Greece has another language.