How long would it take to have a national stable currency in place? Would personal and national assets suffer a devaluation? Has national infrastructre been addressed?
Some of the nations that have emerged from the USSR got currencies up and running in about six months - and Slovakia even more quickly, though with a lot of co-operation from the Czechs. I suspect a planned new currency would take about a year. In the event of an independence vote it would be needed quickly. The politicians assumed that Scotland would vote for the union in the last referendum and a new currency was not ready. We need to do better for a second referendum.
National assets and liabilities would be divided. There is international law on this. There is a problem in that Scotland owns RBS which has had an enormous bailout and there is an issue around whether Scotland should have all this debt. There must be solutions. Scotland is at present subsidised by the UK, so an independent Scotland would initially be poorer. Small nations can carry proportionally less debt than big ones, so Scotland would have its difficulties with the share of the debt. Additionally the markets will not think well of Scotland's proposed fiscal policy.
The sensible way to manage the process is that a new currency would initially be pegged on parity. This would require a Scottish central bank to defend a peg, and there would be costs. In order to manage this the new nation would need to set a balanced budget. Borrowing should be minimised as it will be expensive. As the currency is unpegged it seems very likely indeed that it would devalue. Trying to put a figure on it is alchemy, but 20% seems credible - so imports would go up in price significantly, though there would be an export boom.
However there is a non-sensible way. Alex Salmond said just before the last referendum that Scotland would repudiate its share of the UK national debt. The UK feared that markets would turn against UK bonds if markets felt that Scotland's share of every bond would be defaulted on (about 9%) and the system in place at the moment is that England, Wales and NI are guaranteeing 100% of UK bonds. Devo-max has given Scotland the right to issue their own bonds, but Scotland has not taken this up. The markets would price in their valuation of the Scottish economy. It really does seem that SNP is contemplating a straightforward repudiation of all debts. Quite where that leave England, Wales and NI is anyone's guess. The government would have a responsibility to go after Scotland for default. and it might lead to asset seizure.
Infrastructure issues are problematic. Almost all Scotland's trade passes through England. If Scotland is outside the EU and the UK in (or vice versa) there's a major border problem. More than half of Scottish rail passenger journeys go to English stations. Most international air journeys are via an English airport. These issues all have solutions, but require co-operation, not a Scotland that defaults on its share of debt. No-one can imagine how we would handle road frontiers (essential if Scotland is outside the EU). The biggest unknown is the sea border. When the nations were united no-one set this out. SNP show a map of the British Isles and draw a horizontal E-W line. The UK position is that international law is to extend the trend line of the land frontier. It makes an enormous difference, particularly in ownership of oil and gas.
If Scotland wants independence it is certainly possible, but as a much poorer nation. It may be that the ability to make its own foreign policy decisions outside the UK and outside the EU will make this worthwhile for the people of Scotland.
