Outbreak of Autism or a Statistical Fluke

An Outbreak of Autism, or a Statistical Fluke?

By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
MINNEAPOLIS — Ayub Abdi is a cute 5-year-old with a smile that might be called shy if not for the empty look in his eyes. He does not speak. When he was 2, he could say “Dad,” “Mom,” “give me” and “need water,” but he has lost all that. He does scream and spit, and he moans a loud “Unnnnh! Unnnnh!” when he is unhappy. At night he pounds the walls for hours, which led to his family’s eviction from their last apartment. As he is strapped into his seat in the bus that takes him to special education class, it is hard not to notice that there is only one other child inside, and he too is a son of Somali immigrants. “I know 10 guys whose kids have autism,” said Ayub’s father, Abdirisak Jama, a 39-year-old security guard. “They are all looking for help.”


Autism is terrifying the community of Somali immigrants in Minneapolis, and some pediatricians and educators have joined parents in raising the alarm. But public health experts say it is hard to tell whether the apparent surge of cases is an actual outbreak, with a cause that can be addressed, or just a statistical fluke. While there is little research on autism clusters, reports of cancer clusters are so common that health agencies across the country respond to more than 1,000 inquiries about suspected ones each year. A vast majority prove unfounded, and even when one is confirmed, the cause is seldom ascertained, as it was for Kaposi’s sarcoma among gay men and mesothelioma among asbestos workers. Since the cause of autism is unknown, the authorities in Minnesota say it is hard to know even what to investigate. “There are obviously some real concerns here, but we don’t want to make a cursory judgment,” said Buddy Ferguson, a health department spokesman. Even counting autism cases is difficult because the diagnoses are first made by the schools, not doctors, and population estimates for Somalis vary widely.
Results are expected late this month.

Comments

I am a Minnesota resident who happens to have Asperger's Disorder. I attended public high school until my graduation last year and this article just so happens to pique my interest.

In general I did not find the article exceptionally informative or bring any new information to light. It's just the same rhetoric that has been pounded in my face every time I attempt to do any research on my disorder.

But on to the reason I'm taking the time to post today.

" “I know 10 guys whose kids have autism,” said Ayub’s father, Abdirisak Jama, a 39-year-old security guard.
“They are all looking for help.” "

I find this to be very common for one very important reason. Autism is considered a social disorder by the MN school systems (I can not confirm other locations) and as such we are herded together so we can be educated en mass rather than one on one.

Because of this it is very common for friendships or rivalries to form among the students. And, speaking in general terms of course, parents are very prone to forming some kind of relationship with each other when connected by their children.

Just my 2 cents.
 
I'd be disappointed but not a bit surprised if we found out in 30-40 years that lots of things our society currently considers perfectly harmless actually turn out to be deadly pathogens.

Remember:

* Asbestos was once thought not a health threat.
* Second hand smoke wasn't considered dangerous.
* In fact, there was no link between tobacco and cancer.
* Lead paint was perfectly safe.
* Cocaine wasn't thought to be addictive.
* Seat belts weren't considered effective life savers.
* Few considered drinking alcohol during pregnancy to be hazardous.
* Food dyes just made meals more interesting.

Who knows.....
 
I'd concur with the previous posts; so much has happened to the natural environment that it would be hard to trace an individual reason.
 

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