2020 congressional races

TexanStar

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This is that unspoken other side of the coin... if a Democrat wins the presidency, no matter which candidate it is, Republicans are still running on a platform of obstructionism and there will be no Dem-sponsodred legislation that makes it through congress if they have the majority and no approving of judicial appointments.

Any thoughts this far out about Democratic party odds of retaking the senate? Any races you're watching closely?
 

phonehome

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Well as I recall there are 23 R's up this time and there are only 2 D's who are viewed to be really at risk Doug Jones in AL it is an uphill climb, the other slips my mind at this moment.

There are factors that will make all the difference

Candidate selection will matter

Turnout will be critical

A few R-s where it is at best 50/50

Susan Collins, BK has already made her look like naive deluded fool by ALREADY "not respecting precedent" as she assured everyone he WOULD If between now and next November one of these cases such as the recently passed and even more recently struck down by a Federal judge MS "fetal heartbeat" abortion ban makes it before the SC and he votes on the side to have it upheld or at a minimum he votes to have it heard she can claim until the cows come home that he was not voting to actually "overturn Roe v Wade" and her goose will be cooked

Pat Toomey He has lucked up twice in the opponent he had and when he ran but based on how things went in PA in 2018 he could loose for sure

Corey Gardner, he is the rock mountain version of Pat Toomey but even worse, he can not even claim the Trump won the state in 2016

Tom Tillis The pendulum is swinging back in NC , a year out everyone said that Pat McCorey could not be beat well he did get beat and it was not all that close. Even though Trump won the state in 2018 it was by no means a blowout If the Democrat wins the state as President Obama did he looses, the days of "ticket splitting are OVER

Arizona, Mark Kelly the astronaut has good shot, better than 50/50

TX, TN and KY it depends on the candidate, candidates in the case of TN and turnout but none are slam dunks like you would think.

Even MS is not as safe as you would think, CHS is running again and it could come down to turnout. The AG who is Democrat and has won statewide as AG for as long as I can remember is running for Governor if he manages to win then that could show the path to beating her

So a gain of 3 seems well within reach 13 or 14 would take "blue wave" but we have already seen that happen so it is not all that impossible but even if he does not get there Chuck Schumer will not fuck around and "negotiate" with Mitch McConnell (assuming he is still there) the way Harry Reid did. He will tell good old Mitch to go fuck himself, and go nuclear all the way in order to get things done or at the very least make "filibustering" way harder to do than it is now and worry about what may result from that later
 

phonehome

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Forgot to add GA

By no means a slam dunk either

Stacey Abrahms would have good shot

The former mayor of Atlanta, his name slips my mind right now could make a race of it too
 

keenobserver

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Well as I recall there are 23 R's up this time and there are only 2 D's who are viewed to be really at risk Doug Jones in AL it is an uphill climb, the other slips my mind at this moment.

There are factors that will make all the difference

Candidate selection will matter

Turnout will be critical

A few R-s where it is at best 50/50

Susan Collins, BK has already made her look like naive deluded fool by ALREADY "not respecting precedent" as she assured everyone he WOULD If between now and next November one of these cases such as the recently passed and even more recently struck down by a Federal judge MS "fetal heartbeat" abortion ban makes it before the SC and he votes on the side to have it upheld or at a minimum he votes to have it heard she can claim until the cows come home that he was not voting to actually "overturn Roe v Wade" and her goose will be cooked

Pat Toomey He has lucked up twice in the opponent he had and when he ran but based on how things went in PA in 2018 he could loose for sure

Corey Gardner, he is the rock mountain version of Pat Toomey but even worse, he can not even claim the Trump won the state in 2016

Tom Tillis The pendulum is swinging back in NC , a year out everyone said that Pat McCorey could not be beat well he did get beat and it was not all that close. Even though Trump won the state in 2018 it was by no means a blowout If the Democrat wins the state as President Obama did he looses, the days of "ticket splitting are OVER

Arizona, Mark Kelly the astronaut has good shot, better than 50/50

TX, TN and KY it depends on the candidate, candidates in the case of TN and turnout but none are slam dunks like you would think.

Even MS is not as safe as you would think, CHS is running again and it could come down to turnout. The AG who is Democrat and has won statewide as AG for as long as I can remember is running for Governor if he manages to win then that could show the path to beating her

So a gain of 3 seems well within reach 13 or 14 would take "blue wave" but we have already seen that happen so it is not all that impossible but even if he does not get there Chuck Schumer will not fuck around and "negotiate" with Mitch McConnell (assuming he is still there) the way Harry Reid did. He will tell good old Mitch to go fuck himself, and go nuclear all the way in order to get things done or at the very least make "filibustering" way harder to do than it is now and worry about what may result from that later

Good insights, but never under estimate the spinelessness of Schumer.
 

phonehome

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Good insights, but never under estimate the spinelessness of Schumer.

He has never been in a position where he has been in charge

He has just enough NYC asshole attitude and brass knuckled street fighter instinct to be able to tell Mitch McConnell (or who ever) to go fuck himself
 

TexanStar

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Didn't know where to stick this and didn't feel like making a new thread, but anyways, just more evidence that the same battlegrounds of 2016 are likely to continue to be battlegrounds in 2020.

1.2 million votes later, Wisconsin Supreme Court race appears headed for a recount

The Wisconsin Supreme Court race that liberals needed to win to have a shot at taking majority control of the court next year appeared headed for a recount, with the conservative candidate declaring victory while holding a narrow lead following Tuesday's election.

A conservative win would increase their majority to 5-2 and ensure their control over the court, which they've held since 2008, for years to come. It would be a particularly stinging defeat for liberals, who were confident and riding a wave of wins in 2018, including picking up a Supreme Court seat and ousting Republican Gov. Scott Walker.
 
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chrisrobin

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Hey folks, guess what POTUS isn't going to change Medicare etc till after the 2020 elections - then if he's re-elected he'll cut it all off and fuck you poor suckers who voted him in.
The man is an idiot, cutting aid to the Special Olympics, cutting aid to the Great Lakes and telling more lies than Pinocchio - hell - if Trumps nose grew with every lie, as my mother would have said it would "girdle the earth several times".
Hell he even has extra balls i his pocket (not those) for golf where he cheats so many times each game gets better for him over the course of an evening.
Would you really vote for a man who lies about ball games?
who is going to reduce any sort of medical care in the country in the hands of private investors and the rich?
 
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keenobserver

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Hey folks, guess what POTUS isn't going to change Medicare etc till after the 2020 elections - then if he's re-elected he'll cut it all off and fuck you poor suckers who voted him in.
The man is an idiot, cutting aid to the Special Olympics, cutting aid to the Great Lakes and telling more lies than Pinocchio - hell - if Trumps nose grew with every lie, as my mother would have said it would "girdle the earth several times".
Hell he even has extra balls i his pocket (not those) for golf where he cheats so many times each game gets better for him over the course of an evening.
Would you really vote for a man who lies about ball games?
who is going to reduce any sort of medical care in the country in the hands of private investors and the rich?

I can't argue with your logic, but that Trump is in the White House proves logic has nothing to do with how idiots vote in the U.S. (or the UK, for that matter).
 

chrisrobin

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I can't argue with your logic, but that Trump is in the White House proves logic has nothing to do with how idiots vote in the U.S. (or the UK, for that matter).
The big pity of it the reality of the truth (now 22 lies a day) don't sink in and majority of his core followers think, as he does, that its one big television reality game.
The UK government have reduced followed suit by using Parliament as a Punch and Judy show.
 
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