90 percent of economists predict end to recession this year

Discussion in 'Politics' started by D_Ireonsyd_Colonrinse, May 27, 2009.

  1. D_Ireonsyd_Colonrinse

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    Finally. A non-partisan issue on which we good libs and cons can ALL AGREE.


    Excerpts from the Associated Press article:

    90 percent of economists predict end to recession this year

    Survey finds experts think downturn will end in months, but unemployment will keep climbing

    Wednesday, May 27, 2009

    WASHINGTON — More than 90 percent of economists predict the recession will end this year, although the recovery is likely to be bumpy.

    That assessment came from leading forecasters in a survey by the National Association for Business Economics to be released Wednesday. It is generally in line with the outlook from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues.

    ----------------------

    With joblessness rising, consumers -- major shapers of overall economic activity -- likely will stay cautious, making for a tepid turnaround. And given the big bite the recession has taken out of household wealth, notably the values of homes and investment portfolios, consumers probably will stay subdued for some time.


    Seventy-one percent of the forecasters believe a more-thrifty consumer will be around for at least the next five years.

    --------------------

    President Barack Obama's $787 billion stimulus package of increased government spending and tax cuts, near-zero interest rates ordered by the Fed and government programs to get banks to lend more freely again all factor into the expected economic revival.


    Many forecasters also predict that home sales will hit bottom by the middle of this year, another stabilizing factor for the economy.


    --------------------


    A cautious, sober, conservative assessment.

    Survey: Most economists see recession end in '09 - Boston.com


    Recent Dow Jones history:

    -- Sept. 26, 2008 the Dow closes at 11,143.13

    -- Oct. 1, 2008 Dow closes at 10,831.07

    -- Oct. 14, 2008 Dow closes at 9,310.99

    -- Nov. 6, 2008 Dow closes at 8,695.79

    -- Dec. 23, 2008 Dow closes at 8,419.49

    -- Jan. 20, 2009 Dow closes at 7,949.09 (Obama takes office)

    -- Feb. 19, 2009 Dow closes at 7,465.95

    --March 9, 2009 Dow closes at 6,547.05 (this seems to be the low point)

    --March 19, 2009 Dow closes at 7,400.80

    --April 13, 2009 Dow closes at 8,057.81

    --May 4, 2009 Dow closes at 8,426.74


    As I type, the Dow is now at 8,457.
     
  2. B_Nick4444

    B_Nick4444 New Member

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    that is what I said earlier this year -- why the surprise?:wink:
     
  3. SeeDickRun

    SeeDickRun New Member

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    There is a certain amount of "talk" that will have a positive effect. If we all believe it, we will go about spending as we always have. I have always maintained that we "talked" ourselves into this recession with all the political maneuvering that was going on for the two years before the election.
    If you believe hard enough, say enough, and do enough, we can work ourselves into/out any economic situation.
     
  4. Big Irish

    Big Irish Member

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    I think the ten% that think it will get worse are correct. I think that the over spending from bush and obama will catch up and force another harder contraction, which is what happened during the great depression. I hope not, but my father works for the census and they have told him that he should be seeing a national average of 15-20% unemployment. The great depression had about 16%.
     
  5. faceking

    faceking Active Member

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    Recessions don't last forever (a forgotten aspect in all this anti-capitalism rhetoric).

    What ppl need to prepare for is not to expect glory days, but perhaps a flat-lined economy (with volatility within). In other words, monthly swings but if you look across the long period, not much change for the better nor worse. What I felt circa 2000-2001, through 2011.
     
  6. B_Nick8

    B_Nick8 New Member

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    I have always looked to you for sage advice just as I look to you for change I can believe in.
     
  7. Trinity

    Trinity New Member

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    A recession can last for a very long time if you do the wrong things i.e. Japan's decade-long recession.
     
  8. lucky8

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    Recession may end by 2010, but we need the housing market to bottom out first. The economy will slowly begin to grow. Unemployment will remain high for a few years. People will start driving more. OPEC will stick with its freshly decreased oil supply. Goldman will continue speculating the shit out of oil. Oil prices will surge, and I mean SURGE. Inflation will hit in about 3 years (9 Trillion in spending by the Fed tends to do that). The housing market won't recover like we need it to. Recession 2014 here we come. But on the bright side, our national debt should be much less due to the de-valuing of our currency
     
  9. SilverTrain

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    Whatever terms one wants to use (recession, et. al.), I just can't see things getting better any time in the next year. Those umemployment numbers are truly daunting. And real estate is not going up any time soon.

    Might be a good long while before things are moving up. Which, as many have noted, will induce everyone to behave stringently, realistically with regards to finance. A good thing.
     
  10. jason_els

    jason_els <img border="0" src="/images/badges/gold_member.gi

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    The same 90% who failed to predict the whole collapse? Or those that said we're in for a, "soft landing?"

    Economists are no better at predicting the future than Miss Cleo or Walter Mercado. The damned Keynesians are certain that if everyone just ignores realities and believes, then wishes really do come true!
     
  11. B_VinylBoy

    B_VinylBoy New Member

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    Priceless. :biggrin1:
    But getting back on topic, it's good news to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Even with that news, I still won't be satisfied until the job market starts to improve.
     
  12. sargon20

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    Alas is there a such thing as a non-partisan issue? 90% of scientists or more say global warming is real however it's that 10% that the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Times and the American Enterprise Institute(AEI) push. AEI that went so far as to offer CASH to dispute it. And of course you know the cash came from big oil but sssshhhh.

    Scientists offered cash to dispute climate study
     
  13. B_starinvestor

    B_starinvestor New Member

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    This is also the same group that gave Obama failing grades on his economic policy.

    In fairness, it is impossible to predict spending patterns...and whatever arbitrary force that causes people to gain confidence and start spending, traveling, etc.

    There are no formulas or reports that can accurately gauge future human behavior...and never will be.
     
  14. oralhijinks

    oralhijinks Member

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    Those having an economics background know this well but the ebb and tide of economies have such complex interactions that everything that is ascertained is a measure of probability. The invisible hand of economics is truly invisible. There is no looking glass for the future only trending from the past. Because something is possible does not mean it's probable and because something is probable does not make it fact. Economies are no more predictable over the short term than they were 100 years ago. There are just too many hands in the pot. Longer term predictions tend to hold up a bit better barring a situation occurring (such as N Korea storming over DMZ, as an example).

    One thing that concerns me greatly is the long term effects of a rapidly increasing money supply along with a general worldwide consensus that the US credit rating should be adjusted down. In my opinion we will see a rapid increase in inflation in the mid-term due to a diluted M1 (currency and demand instruments). If the business environment has not recovered, and I mean doing business as usual, then interest rate increases to check the advancing inflation will stagnate business resulting in stagflation (a real nightmare to deal with). With a lower US credit rating it will be difficult to secure loans to weather the next economic downturn. There will be little monies saved overall and available due to many companies tapping their cash reserves to continue operations in this recession. Now, this would be serious because fighting stagflation could result in hyperinflation.
     
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