A Tea Party Win in Delaware

maxcok

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My hope is that the extremism of O'Donnell and Paladino helps to nationalize the election, dragging down Republican candidates everywhere by association with whackos.
I wouldn't bet on this. There's once again an epedemic of anti-incumbent fever, and the party in power almost always suffers losses two years into a new president's administration, regardless of circumstances. Whether it's justified or not, the circumstances look bad to lots of impatient and/or ignorant voters.

Could the pundits be waaay off? Could the Democrats actually end up with more seats in November than they have now? That would make Obama's agenda very interesting in the next 2 years, and cause an epidemic of tea party aneurysms.
I wouldn't bet on that either. The Democrats' losses may not turn out to be as bad as the pundits are predicting if Obama can stay out there in campaign mode and convince the voters the Dems have a better plan and if the Dems can turn out the votes. That's a problem, because the opposition is emotionally motivated to go to the polls, and Dem leaning voters are not.

I really don't think the Senate will flip, but the Dems will lose their near filibuster proof majority (not that it made a whit of difference with weinie Reed at the wheel), the House is a tossup, and lots of new Republicans will be moving into governors' mansions. It all comes down to turnout. Republican/conservative and older voters are typically much more likely to turn out in a non presidential election year. If the Dems can get those 20 to 30 something twitter voters to turn out like in 2008, it will help stop the bleeding, but it's a really tall order.

I expect Rand Paul will be elected in KY, Angle's got a really good shot NV, as does Fiorina in CA, and Miller's got a good shot too (unless Murkowski runs as an independent throwing AK up in the air). Regardless, the future makeup of congress is not going to be decided on the national mood, it's going to come down to states and individual districts. "All politics is local". The most important thing progressives can do right now is to get involved in GOTV (get out the vote) efforts in their own communities through their local Democratic clubs, etc. So y'all get busy. And cross your fingers.
 
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gymfresh

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Republican/conservative and older voters are typically much more likely to turn out

Yes, it's easier for them to get to the polls. Infinitis and Range Rovers turn over more reliably in the cold weather of November than do 20-year-old Ford Fiestas.


The most important thing progressives can do right now is to get involved in GOTV (get out the vote) efforts in their own communities through their local Democratic clubs, etc.
I registered to vote yesterday, as much as elections in my new state make me want to retch. California was far more fun.
 

Hoss

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And Paul Paladino wins the Republican Primary in NY. Absolutely astounding.
In some ways, this makes the choice in November an obvious one for Democrats, moderates or anyone with a rational brain. But you have to wonder just how many folks have been duped by this phony-ass "anger message" being generated by some people from the extreme right.

Christine O’Donnell is another joke. Once a spokesperson for abstinence on a "Sex In the 90s" special on MTV, she ran a campaign where she constant referred to her opponent as being gay like that's supposed to mean anything bad. Is this the best you can do from the Conservative camp these days?
It's Carl Paladino, and a big reason for his win has to do with the lackluster campaigning of Rick Lazio. Lazio had 2 additional problems, he's a former Congressman and he got over a million dollars from 1 of those bank bailouts (JP Morgan) (google search "Lazio money from bailout" to locate all sources).

Paladiino stands a better chance in November than Lazio ever would have, he (Paladino) has some life in him and will be able to stand up to the heat of debates against Andrew Cuomo and be able to point out the long list of failures associated with Cuomo, Lazio would have only duplicated his now famous comedy of errors which were displayed when he ran for Senate against Hillary Rodham Clinton.
 

Industrialsize

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It's Carl Paladino, and a big reason for his win has to do with the lackluster campaigning of Rick Lazio. Lazio had 2 additional problems, he's a former Congressman and he got over a million dollars from 1 of those bank bailouts (JP Morgan) (google search "Lazio money from bailout" to locate all sources).

Paladiino stands a better chance in November than Lazio ever would have, he (Paladino) has some life in him and will be able to stand up to the heat of debates against Andrew Cuomo and be able to point out the long list of failures associated with Cuomo, Lazio would have only duplicated his now famous comedy of errors which were displayed when he ran for Senate against Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Oh, I have a hunch that Mr. Paladino will have some trouble in the general election:
Mr. Paladino became one of the first Tea Party candidates to win a Republican primary for governor, in a state where the Republican Party has historically succeeded by choosing moderates.
The result was a potentially destabilizing blow for New York Republicans. It put at the top of the party’s ticket a volatile newcomer who has forwarded e-mails to friends containing racist jokes and pornographic images, espoused turning prisons into dormitories where welfare recipients could be given classes on hygiene, and defended an ally’s comparison of the Assembly speaker, Sheldon Silver, who is Jewish, to “an Antichrist or a Hitler



http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/15/nyregion/15webnygov.html?hp
 

Pitbull

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while any democrat that doesn't go along with party orthodoxy is considered a pariah?

...democrats who take a stand on their personal morals and hock phlegm in the same manner have seen that they can be rooted out of their own party and be forced to run as independents.

Really? Can you give us some recent examples of any note?

Joe Lieberman
 

Hoss

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Thanks for the correction. But he's still not getting my vote.
Not that he should get that vote. I think he's a sucky candidate, then again, so is Cuomo. It's a lesser of 2 evils situation (in my view)

Oh, I have a hunch that Mr. Paladino will have some trouble in the general election:
Mr. Paladino became one of the first Tea Party candidates to win a Republican primary for governor, in a state where the Republican Party has historically succeeded by choosing moderates.
The result was a potentially destabilizing blow for New York Republicans. It put at the top of the party’s ticket a volatile newcomer who has forwarded e-mails to friends containing racist jokes and pornographic images, espoused turning prisons into dormitories where welfare recipients could be given classes on hygiene, and defended an ally’s comparison of the Assembly speaker, Sheldon Silver, who is Jewish, to “an Antichrist or a Hitler



http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/15/nyregion/15webnygov.html?hp
Paladino's biggest benefit is riding the wave of sentiment against incumbents. He's clearly a twat, but that hasn't stopped people from being elected in the past. Republicans are obviously nervous about him, with his "shoot then ask questions" approach, however they don't want to completely alienate him (and voters as well), so he may well receive at least a tepid support. Add to this the unfortunate facts, Cuomo will bring several bags with him, including years in the Bill Clinton Cabinet and the association to his dad, former Governor Mario Cuomo. There are those who connect Andrew Cuomo and his time as HUD Secretary to the Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae mess, and when the elder Cuomo left office it was due to voters no longer wanting him (he lost to Republican George Pataki in 1994 after 3 terms). Add to this that a large portion of NYS is Republican which could cement a victory for Paladino, when combined with all other factors.
 

LambHair McNeil

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Really? Can you give us some recent examples of any note?

Really? Can you give us some recent examples of any note?

You really can't have already forgotten Joe Lieberman, now, can you? The man who was the Dem Party's VP nominee 10 years ago, who is a reliable liberal vote on a wide range of issues, but made the monumental mistake of daring to feel differently about the Iraq War than did his party, circa 2006. He likely only caucuses with the Dems since after Election Night 2008 they stood so close to achieving a 60-vote total in the Senate. Had Dems succeeded to a point where they would have ended up with 54-55 votes, it's hard to see Dems giving a damn who he caucuses with.

And as to my words on any Dem not voting with the party being considered a pariah, here is a headline from March that shows the approach of the administration to those in its own party that don't toe the line: Barack Obama has said he will not campaign for any Democratic congressmen who fails to support health care reform.

Because it isn't true. The mass majority of Democrats this year have not been voted out for more extreme leftists.

No, the ones under the gun (either in their own party or in the general) are in hot water because of the votes they've cast with the leadership in Washington. That's how Obama has become in this election a distant electoral cousin to Bush (in his latter years in office). Repubs during that time would gladly take Bush's raised campaign funds but didn't want to be anywhere near him on stage and Obama is seeing some of that this year. It's by no means as intense as it was under Bush, but whodathunkit in Nov 2008 that the Dems elected on his coattails would be begging him, in some instances, to not appear with them on stage?

Addition:
Joe Lieberman is an Independent.

Yes....and how/why was he forced to declare himself as an "I"? Sheesh...
 
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Pitbull

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Joe Lieberman is an Independent.


That is the point.

Have you forgotten that he was a Democrat and even the DEMOCRATIC nominee for vice-president before he was pushed out of the party for his stand on the Iraq war.

Democrats cannot stand independent thinkers.
 

B_VinylBoy

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That is the point.

Have you forgotten that he was a Democrat and even the DEMOCRATIC nominee for vice-president before he was pushed out of the party for his stand on the Iraq war.

Democrats cannot stand independent thinkers.

Bullshit. If that was the case, then explain the Blue Dogs?
They're not the progressive lefties like Alan Grayson or Howard Dean. And they made up 15% of the Democratic base in 2008 when they took over the Senate. As for Lieberman, he's an opportunist that threatens to side with one party to the next if he doesn't get his way. Hence his (I). He doesn't have an individual thought in his mind, nor was he the only Democrat that supported the Iraq War either. However, if you really want to investigate this we can review the recent HCL fiasco and how he threatened to be the lone person to filibuster. At least with this issue there's a pretty, little money trail we can follow that would let us know exactly what he's about.
 
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Pitbull

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Bullshit. If that was the case, then explain the Blue Dogs?

The blue dogs need to take some positions against the party line because they worry about reelection.

When it comes down to the big party issues - like the health care bill, most of them even joined in.
The ones who didn't - remember they did not need every democratic vote to get it passed. There were high profile deals and they calculated in the party's best interest who should cast the "no" votes.

Maverick McCain even got the nomination for president in spite of his positions and voting on many key issues

Maverick Joe
Had to Go
 

LambHair McNeil

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The "blue dogs" are more bark than bite.

Their "opposition" to Obamacare is a fine example. Before it was ever was passed, so-called "blue dogs" were constantly expressing reservations after reservation, never being wholly in the "pro-" column. At the final bell in March, however, all those that the leadership needed to do so buckled like a belt.

If the blue dogs had felt the courage of their supposed convictions, *maybe* a version of HCR would have emerged (later than March, however) that would be something that democrats in Congress would be running on instead of away from and republicans wouldn't feel so emboldened by polling results to attack.
 

Industrialsize

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The "blue dogs" are more bark than bite.

Their "opposition" to Obamacare is a fine example. Before it was ever was passed, so-called "blue dogs" were constantly expressing reservations after reservation, never being wholly in the "pro-" column. At the final bell in March, however, all those that the leadership needed to do so buckled like a belt.

If the blue dogs had felt the courage of their supposed convictions, *maybe* a version of HCR would have emerged (later than March, however) that would be something that democrats in Congress would be running on instead of away from and republicans wouldn't feel so emboldened by polling results to attack.
The latest polling on HCR shows that Calls to repeal the health care reform law passed by President Obama were favored by just 32 percent of the public. Hardly a stinging rebuke of HCR.

Despite Electoral Landscape, GOP Proposals Not Popular - Congressional Connection Poll
 

B_VinylBoy

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The blue dogs need to take some positions against the party line because they worry about reelection.

When it comes down to the big party issues - like the health care bill, most of them even joined in.

They joined in not after the bill was completely watered down so their views were listened to and also addressed.

The ones who didn't - remember they did not need every democratic vote to get it passed.

According to the rules they didn't. We only need 51 votes to pass anything in the Senate. Unfortunately, without the full 60 it was destined to be filibustered by Republicans (who went filibuster crazy this session), which is why Democrats chased after a super majority on this issue.

Maverick McCain even got the nomination for president in spite of his positions and voting on many key issues

If we're just looking at Republican candidates, MaCain should have gotten the nomination over Bush in 2000. He does have his bouts of sanity from time to time, several of which made me think that he wasn't as much of a right winged lunatic as sometimes portrayed. However, it didn't last long for him to show his true colors. Instead of choosing a more viable VP that would have given his party some real contention, he chose Palin who brought in that highly religious and far right influence chasing away many of the independents in the process. Then to win his own senate race against an certifiable nut case like J.D. Hayworth, he had to literally flip on his presidential stance by swinging further right than ever before and deny that he ever called himself a maverick even though there are thousands of YouTube videos out there with his speeches that state otherwise.

Some "maverick" he turned out to be. :rolleyes:
 

ZOS23xy

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Oh, I have a hunch that Mr. Paladino will have some trouble in the general election:
Mr. Paladino became one of the first Tea Party candidates to win a Republican primary for governor, in a state where the Republican Party has historically succeeded by choosing moderates.
The result was a potentially destabilizing blow for New York Republicans. It put at the top of the party’s ticket a volatile newcomer who has forwarded e-mails to friends containing racist jokes and pornographic images, espoused turning prisons into dormitories where welfare recipients could be given classes on hygiene, and defended an ally’s comparison of the Assembly speaker, Sheldon Silver, who is Jewish, to “an Antichrist or a Hitler



http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/15/nyregion/15webnygov.html?hp


He gave an apology to several news groups, but that in my mind doesn't really clear the air; it's in his mind and back ground matter. And his waivering of "being funny" doesn't hold.
 

TomCat84

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I wouldn't bet on this. There's once again an epedemic of anti-incumbent fever, and the party in power almost always suffers losses two years into a new president's administration, regardless of circumstances. Whether it's justified or not, the circumstances look bad to lots of impatient and/or ignorant voters.

I wouldn't bet on that either. The Democrats' losses may not turn out to be as bad as the pundits are predicting if Obama can stay out there in campaign mode and convince the voters the Dems have a better plan and if the Dems can turn out the votes. That's a problem, because the opposition is emotionally motivated to go to the polls, and Dem leaning voters are not.

I really don't think the Senate will flip, but the Dems will lose their near filibuster proof majority (not that it made a whit of difference with weinie Reed at the wheel), the House is a tossup, and lots of new Republicans will be moving into governors' mansions. It all comes down to turnout. Republican/conservative and older voters are typically much more likely to turn out in a non presidential election year. If the Dems can get those 20 to 30 something twitter voters to turn out like in 2008, it will help stop the bleeding, but it's a really tall order.

I expect Rand Paul will be elected in KY, Angle's got a really good shot NV, as does Fiorina in CA, and Miller's got a good shot too (unless Murkowski runs as an independent throwing AK up in the air). Regardless, the future makeup of congress is not going to be decided on the national mood, it's going to come down to states and individual districts. "All politics is local". The most important thing progressives can do right now is to get involved in GOTV (get out the vote) efforts in their own communities through their local Democratic clubs, etc. So y'all get busy. And cross your fingers.

Fiorina has absolutely NO shot. Trust me. She's too conservative for California. Anti choice, anti gay marriage, anti environmental protections
 

TomCat84

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The "blue dogs" are more bark than bite.

Their "opposition" to Obamacare is a fine example. Before it was ever was passed, so-called "blue dogs" were constantly expressing reservations after reservation, never being wholly in the "pro-" column. At the final bell in March, however, all those that the leadership needed to do so buckled like a belt.

If the blue dogs had felt the courage of their supposed convictions, *maybe* a version of HCR would have emerged (later than March, however) that would be something that democrats in Congress would be running on instead of away from and republicans wouldn't feel so emboldened by polling results to attack.

WRONG. Republicans would have attacked the Democrats no matter what they passed. What they ended up passing is largely what the Republicans proposed in 93 and 94, and what Romney passed in Massachusetts, yet they STILL attack it.
 

D_Harvey Schmeckel

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That is the point.

Have you forgotten that he was a Democrat and even the DEMOCRATIC nominee for vice-president before he was pushed out of the party for his stand on the Iraq war.

Democrats cannot stand independent thinkers.


That is a smear and verges on hate speech. I'm an Independent with no love for the Democratic Party, but it is most assuredly not guilty as charged above. CONNECTICUT DEMOCRATIC VOTERS, not the party hierarchy, chose another nominee; Lieberman then CHOSE to run as an Independent. The party hierarchy was generally supportive of Lieberman and unsupportive of Lamont in the primary. Only when Lieberman chose to run as an Independent against the Democratic nominee did he lose all support from the Democratic Party. And now he's back all cozy with the administration, allowed to keep his committee seniority etc. despite avid support of McCain and sometimes wildly insulting remarks about Obama during the 2008 campaign.
 

midlifebear

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I spent a good deal of this last summer (2010) in my home State of Nevada shoring up business interests and making my LLCs "lean and mean." My home is in Elko County and I own a popular watering hole in Elko. Elko historically votes RED every election. However, my clients (guests) who came to eat and drink and who are known, proud Republicans kept telling me that Sharron Angle has no chance of winning against Harry Reid -- even though they, themselves are Republicans. They admit they haven't much of a choice, Reid or Angle, but they tend to regard Angle as not just inexperienced, but a radical christianist. "She won't win," is what everyone has told me. But I'm not betting against her winning in November. There are hoards of folks just as dumb as buckets of nails living in Las Vegas and Sparks/Reno who have moved to Nevada from southern States hoping to "live free or die!" Angle has a good chance of winning. And if she does, I just might as well apply to change my status as a Spanish Resident to Citizen of Spain. I sort of enjoyed being back in the sagebrush steppe. But I can just as easily get used to a view overlooking the ocean a few kilometers south of Sitges, Spain. And the food is a thousand times better than the crap that passes as nourishment in Nevada. Hence, just one of the many reasons my little Feed bag/watering hole in Elko continues to be successful: we don't serve the traditional "chunk of cow."

But Sharron Angle is the best example of how stupid and naive a person can be and probably become a US Senator (that's suffering 6 years of stupidity and naivety). Six years too much.