I wouldn't bet on this. There's once again an epedemic of anti-incumbent fever, and the party in power almost always suffers losses two years into a new president's administration, regardless of circumstances. Whether it's justified or not, the circumstances look bad to lots of impatient and/or ignorant voters.My hope is that the extremism of O'Donnell and Paladino helps to nationalize the election, dragging down Republican candidates everywhere by association with whackos.
I wouldn't bet on that either. The Democrats' losses may not turn out to be as bad as the pundits are predicting if Obama can stay out there in campaign mode and convince the voters the Dems have a better plan and if the Dems can turn out the votes. That's a problem, because the opposition is emotionally motivated to go to the polls, and Dem leaning voters are not.Could the pundits be waaay off? Could the Democrats actually end up with more seats in November than they have now? That would make Obama's agenda very interesting in the next 2 years, and cause an epidemic of tea party aneurysms.
I really don't think the Senate will flip, but the Dems will lose their near filibuster proof majority (not that it made a whit of difference with weinie Reed at the wheel), the House is a tossup, and lots of new Republicans will be moving into governors' mansions. It all comes down to turnout. Republican/conservative and older voters are typically much more likely to turn out in a non presidential election year. If the Dems can get those 20 to 30 something twitter voters to turn out like in 2008, it will help stop the bleeding, but it's a really tall order.
I expect Rand Paul will be elected in KY, Angle's got a really good shot NV, as does Fiorina in CA, and Miller's got a good shot too (unless Murkowski runs as an independent throwing AK up in the air). Regardless, the future makeup of congress is not going to be decided on the national mood, it's going to come down to states and individual districts. "All politics is local". The most important thing progressives can do right now is to get involved in GOTV (get out the vote) efforts in their own communities through their local Democratic clubs, etc. So y'all get busy. And cross your fingers.
Last edited: