This seems from all I'm reading to be a referendum by Jewish Brooklyn voters on both gay marriage and the feeling that the Obama administration hasn't been as strong an ally to Isreal as they'd like. I tend to agree that it's not a very good idea to read too much into it though. It could just very well be that a New York state congressman's internet sex scandal will just lead to a district being flipped in the special election.
That being said, it actually looks like the margin by which Republicans won the Nevada House special election indicates that Democrats could be facing a pretty uphill battle there which is actually a swing state.
Either way, I say President Obama's looking at a tough re-election. The economy is pretty god awful and whether or not a President deserves credit for the economy, he almost wins or loses re-election based on it. Of course, the economy wasn't great in 2004, but it was alright. In 1996, it was pretty damn good. It could've been a lot better in 1984, but GDP was great, and Reagan had turned the corner by this point in the cycle.
Guess I really veered off the special election topic here.