AP just called Weiner's district

Quast

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Yes, from Tennessee where we have jobs and no state income tax. :smile:

You guys have the 11th (not including DC) highest unemployment rate in the nation.

Or take Oregon, no sales tax, and 12th highest unemployment rate but that's not useful for your narrative, the state's been under Democratic control for the past 26 years.

In fact, 7 of the 10 states with the highest unemployment rates all lean Republican.

But I digress, we can all sit around here measuring dicks all day until the cows come home.
 
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romansadella

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This seems from all I'm reading to be a referendum by Jewish Brooklyn voters on both gay marriage and the feeling that the Obama administration hasn't been as strong an ally to Isreal as they'd like. I tend to agree that it's not a very good idea to read too much into it though. It could just very well be that a New York state congressman's internet sex scandal will just lead to a district being flipped in the special election.

That being said, it actually looks like the margin by which Republicans won the Nevada House special election indicates that Democrats could be facing a pretty uphill battle there which is actually a swing state.

Either way, I say President Obama's looking at a tough re-election. The economy is pretty god awful and whether or not a President deserves credit for the economy, he almost wins or loses re-election based on it. Of course, the economy wasn't great in 2004, but it was alright. In 1996, it was pretty damn good. It could've been a lot better in 1984, but GDP was great, and Reagan had turned the corner by this point in the cycle.

Guess I really veered off the special election topic here.
 

D_Miranda_Wrights

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I'm pretty much with romansadella here.

The Jews in this district are not Jews everywhere. They're more ethnic, older and more religious. This is not a population that the Democrats have been holding up with well in recent Presidential elections. In this district, many Jews are ultra-orthodox, a population that swings depending on what their religious leaders tell them. McCain won over 95% in some ultra-orthodox neighborhoods of NYC. I kid you not.

In any case, I think Obama won this district by like 6%, under his national average, and the worst showing for a Democratic prez candidate in recent history. Considering the scandal, the results here are probably not worth extrapolating nationwide. Approval rating polls are just massively better barometers than special elections like this.