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Discussion in 'Politics' started by Nrets, Oct 15, 2008.
The fall of what?
I am trying to start an open ended discussion about civilization and the eventual Malthusian crisis.
But I left it really vague so that people can go anywhere with it.
Yeah, I'm ready. I've got special hip repair insurance.
It could also be taken as the fall as in the season...got any good halloween costumes yet?
But beyond lightheartedness and not going as far as the resources crisis Malthus talked about years ago...I am betting that the stock market will be off tomorrow.
Yep. The leaves are turning outside my windows, reminding me to get the winter clothes and woolens out and check for moth damage.
Alright I am done being vague. Basically I wanted to say for a while now that the actual market crash hasn't even happened yet, but I held off because of the 950+ point rally the other day after banks were nationalized worldwide. I thought that the problem was actually fixed.
Now after today, I am pretty sure...
The market hasn't even really crashed yet.
Are you ready for the fall?
Of the leaves from the trees...and the extended time recooperating from falling down...cause after this is all over I think we will have a populace less focused on careers and more focused on survival which will have the postive effect of making everyone more alive in their existence
It's a repeat of the cycle in the 1920s that led to world economic collapse. This time, the United States is in debt as a nation, and gave away it's manufacturing. It is going to be mighty scary to see the outcome.
I'm ready and I'm not......have a strong feeling it's the same for the majority. But then we are predicting the future and not through hindsight as many would have you believe now, "I saw this coming, I knew it." Okay, then why weren't we shouting from the roof tops if we were so sure a few weeks, months or years ago...
maybe it's not a "fall" maybe it's a natural, yet severe, ebb and flow?
Some people have been shouting it from the roof tops for years. Nobody wanted to listen.
Haha, you came up with this reply so quick that you saved my OG post.
It's alright..except now everyone can see what I was originally thinking. I softened up what I was saying as an ackowledgment to other people that took my invitation to make open ended replies.
But yeah, what you are saying is what I was originally thinking when I first posted. I was going to post this a week ago, but my internet was down.
Then there was the Wall Street rebound after nationalizing the banks, but now it truly seems that there is nothing the government can do to get us out of this. (Nationalizing the banks was supposed to be a long term fix and her we are two days out in the same place as before)
Maybe the government wanta us to go through what is coming for some sinister reason such as taking control of people.
But whatever the case, it seems we are in for some crazy times.
But as I revised my post to say, I do see a postive as I believe people will be forced to return to a more grassroots, DIY existence and perhaps there will be a real folk revival in the tradition of toughing it out and coming together when it matters.
You know what's crazy...there are so many opinions on the matter, that there was never a clear idea of why anyone should believe a crash was coming or not coming.
Thing is, there is probably truth in it all.
I for one had it made clear to me yesterday by a History professor that this is not new...it has been happening cyclically since the American revolution.
He is saying that Wall Street has basically been one Ponzi scheme after another to put money in the hands of some wealthy people at the expence of common people investing and being taxed for what basically amounts to as social welfare for corporations. (well that last part applies to the age of bailouts...which are not entirely new...evidentally, but I put in this aside because they don't date back as far as the revolution.)
When the scheme goes under...the investment bubble collapses.
This happened with railroads in the 1890's. JP Morgan came up with a scheme to make money...became rich.
Later the Nicaragua canal; was scheduled to be built.
JP Morgan faked a nationalist uprising of "Panamanians" against Columbia...facilitated a international treaty signing and created the nation of Panama. There were no Panamanians present at the signing.
He took this momentum and arbitrated construction for the canal to be moved to new nation of Panama.
Wall Street exploded with investment.
One example of why...Nicaragua would have been a level canal...Panama needed heavy industry to create very expensive locks to make the canal work...
There was also a Scottish guy who earlier on faked the existence of a country so he could get people to invest in his scheme...he made bank.
After each of these schemes ended, there was a subsequent crash.
I learned all this last night...but one thing I disagree withthe professor on was his insiunuation that this is not any different from any of the other recessions.
I think it is.
I think the fed has been building this balloon...this ponzi pyramid scheme for longer than any other time in history...and I think this time it will fall REALLY hard.
Also...I think the decline of resources because of over population...AKA the malthusian crisis may be having a hand in the mix this time around.
But yeah, greed and capitalism certainly is exacerbating those issues, if those are part of the issues.
Basically what I am saying is with a more communal system...we could probably sustain 8 billion people for damn near eternity...rather than the 6 billion that may not survive 2012 if we don't fundamentally change some shit soon.
Also, I am not a communist.
I would vastly prefer 1 billion people to live free than 6 billion live under oppression...but what are we gpoign to do with all those extra people?
Ok, I am done ranting.
I am ready for the fall.
I had some problems before,,and I'll have some after.
But I'll still be the same person.
I never cared about finance or appearances or status.
I will rejoice if it gets to the point that people no longer put on fronts to seem a certain way or avoid associating with people that are "beneath" them.
I will rejoice if we are all forced to come together.
This is far from an alleged repeat of the cycle in the 1920s but of course I would like to see your detailed correlation anyway.
Yes, the United States carries debt but then nothing like our historic highs and nothing we cannot deal with.
Allegedly gave away our manufacturing? The biggest problem we have had for a long time now is a shortage of workers for menial factory jobs (why do you think politicians on both sides of the isle pretend to care about the southern border when in reality they all know we needed the workers to do jobs nobody here would) and we are still by far the number one manufacturer on the planet.
What about China?
And Nrets, I agree, I don't think we've seen a full crash yet...a bigger one is coming, all in all, a 950 point rally doesn't really mean much considering the DJ is down around 40% for the year, and considering after every rally, there has been a huge sell off. The beaches of Mexico are looking more beautiful by the day
Watch and listen to Mr. Buffet, we don't see him running for the fall-out shelter...common sense will save those who aren't getting off on the thrill of panic.
Opps, just looked out my window and just saw a chunk of sky fall! I think if landed nearby, gonna jump in the Hummer and go check it out.
In the 1920s, the public bought enormous amounts of things they could not afford on credit. The banks loaned money like it was water. Homes and automobiles, appliances were all financed on credit. See a correlation here?
The national debt is trillions of dollars, and the government has already promised future benefits of over 56 trillion dollars. That is more than the entire worth of the United States. How can this not be a tragedy in the making?
Over 1 million good paying factory jobs with benefits were lost to imports. Then, you have the domino effect. Less people working means less people spending. Less people spending means less people working in other sectors. It goes on and on.
I absolutely see the correlation. I rarely see concise posts like this one that cut out all the esoteric arguments about what may or may not be affecting markets.
This is my scenario; yes no doubt about a recession it looks like but nothing like the economy of the Carter years let alone the Great Depression.
You mentioned exporting jobs but have you ever looked at the money American companies make overseas? Is there some reason American companies should not have facilities all over the world when we sell all over the world? We are known as leaders and its not because we are isolationists. We along with other major players are actively building countries like China & India for a reason = so the populations of those countries can buy stuff made here or made elsewhere by American companies and this tactic is working great for that reason along with making the world a safer place. Plus, do not forget we have had a major problem with having enough workers to take low-skill jobs at market pay rates so we had no choice but to export the positions.
Yes, many have over-financed but this will not be a depression unless housing goes completely in the toilet and I highly doubt that will happen.
Still #2. Though they might overtake us next year. I posted a link last week about this.
That we have lost our manufacturing is a myth. We switched to high-tech. We did lose our steel manufacturing, and some others.
Armageddon isn't coming my friends. We have some credit challenges - which are being worked out. Don't move into your bomb shelters just yet - we will get through this much more expeditiously than most believe.
"It's different this time!"
Well, its different every time. This too shall pass.