Arlen Specter switches parties...

Discussion in 'Politics' started by mikeyh9in, Apr 28, 2009.

  1. mikeyh9in

    mikeyh9in Active Member

    Joined:
    May 31, 2004
    Messages:
    322
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    59
    Gender:
    Male
  2. houtx48

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2006
    Messages:
    7,095
    Likes Received:
    35
    Gender:
    Male
    he wants to dip his nads instead of having to be the one taking the dipping.
     
  3. hard2swallow

    hard2swallow Member

    Joined:
    Dec 31, 2008
    Messages:
    54
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    2
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    texas
    I follow politics closely but even I'm surprised. I guess you can only take so much criticism from your "friends" before you jump ship. And although I'm liberal, the same reasoning applies to either party. Remember when Lieberman jumped the Democratic ship?
     
  4. faceking

    faceking Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2004
    Messages:
    7,535
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    106
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Mavs, NOR * CAL
    He's most likely doing this, because he was going to lose the primary. Pretty weak move just to stay in office.

    "A Quinnipiac University survey of registered Pennsylvania voters released last month showed Specter trailing the more conservative Toomey in a hypothetical primary matchup, 41 to 27 percent."
     
  5. Guy-jin

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2007
    Messages:
    3,835
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    669
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Planet Earth
    That's politics, baby.
     
  6. houtx48

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2006
    Messages:
    7,095
    Likes Received:
    35
    Gender:
    Male
    liberman is still a democrat, although he is billed as an independent democrat
     
  7. joyboytoy79

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2006
    Messages:
    8,557
    Albums:
    4
    Likes Received:
    9
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    DC-ish
    So, what your saying is as a Democrat Spencer will win the primary, and then will beat his Republican opponent, and keep his seat? Is that to say, then, that the Republican party in Pennsylvania has no hope of winning the 2010 senatorial election?
     
    #7 joyboytoy79, Apr 28, 2009
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2009
  8. Average_joe

    Average_joe Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2004
    Messages:
    124
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    0
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Minnesota
    By the end, Lieberman's politics had swung pretty far out of the democratic mainstream. I think both he and other democrats had stopped really associating him with the party. When it gets to that point, with anyone, the best thing is probably to change your political orbit.

    As long as the elected official satisfies the electorate that placed them in power, I think they should be able to do whatever they want.
     
  9. Flashy

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2007
    Messages:
    8,097
    Likes Received:
    3
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    at home
    this is what is so frustrating.

    i was some of these centrists would leave the republican party (not that there Are too many centrists left there) and join about the 14 moderate/conservative democrats, and form a *3RD PARTY*

    it is too frustrating. it is like watching a never-ending ping pong match between two corrupt retards.
     
  10. Qua

    Qua
    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2007
    Messages:
    1,507
    Albums:
    2
    Likes Received:
    153
    Gender:
    Male
    No, your conclusion is fallacious, and is ignoring the specific situation at hand completely while trying to induce a general conclusion that has nothing to do with it.

    A Republican Specter would probably win a general election in Pennsylvania, however, he would not have the support of registered Republicans eligible to vote in primaries.
     
  11. B_VinylBoy

    B_VinylBoy New Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2007
    Messages:
    10,516
    Likes Received:
    7
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Boston, MA / New York, NY
    People may want to watch the live announcement this man is making RIGHT NOW, before jumping to conclusions. He may be "jumping ship", but he's sounding more like he's willing to make up his own mind on issues and not just go along with the gang in power. Just because someone affiliates with one party or the other doesn't mean that they have to blindly accept and agree with everything that they stand for.

    Besides... there's no such thing as an independent. Even those who declare themselves as one lean more toward the right on some issues, and more toward the left on others. NOBODY is completely down the middle.
     
  12. Qua

    Qua
    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2007
    Messages:
    1,507
    Albums:
    2
    Likes Received:
    153
    Gender:
    Male
    Wouldn't an independent simply lean in ways that don't align well with an existing party? How on earth could someone straight down the middle claim to be independent? What a sad world that would be, where those who claim to think for themselves are actually just a compromise or perfect median between two extremes. I think you're missing the point of independent here. Of course their views lean towards the left and right. Just not in ways that the current parties provide for.

    I might agree that you could say an independent is closer to a Democrat than a Republican, or vice versa. But that doesn't make him/her one. A perfect compromise between the two party system is not independent thought, it's just compromise.
     
    #12 Qua, Apr 28, 2009
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2009
  13. joyboytoy79

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2006
    Messages:
    8,557
    Albums:
    4
    Likes Received:
    9
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    DC-ish
    Perhaps it's because I've spent all day in bed with allergies that are kicking my ass, but I fail to see how your conclusion is different than mine. If the Republican party isn't wise enough to support Specter, who would then have enough support in the general public, they are conceding defeat, no? (Notice I say "if" - the motive behind my question is revealed a little more clearly below)

    Or maybe, Specter's chances of holding his office are the same regardless of the party he's seated in, and he really does feel more aligned to Democrats than Republicans, at this stage in the game. It's just a thought. Not a very good one, admittedly, since my brain is all stuffed up with mucous at the moment.
     
  14. Flashy

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2007
    Messages:
    8,097
    Likes Received:
    3
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    at home
    part of the problem for Specter was that he was in serious trouble against a far right wing conservative who was going to be running in the republican primary, and he was taking alot of heat from the more hysterical and right wing members of both the GOP and the in-state voters and GOP apparatus.

    it is the smart move for him, since it will likely draw the moderate republican support he already had, the conservatives will still vote against him no matter what, and will support the new GOP candidate, and the Democratic party is thrilled, that they get a seat which was previously solid republican for many many years, and moderate democrats will have no problem at all pulling the level for Specter.

    the two people who oppose him most, arch conservatives and far left liberals, are thus blunted, and he remains in power.

    very smart move in his part...not to mention i would not be surprised if due to his seniority and power, he is considered for certain important strategic positions on the important committees he sits on...not to mention, he buys himself tremendous importance and goodwill and additional power from the Democrats.

    rather brilliant political move on his part.

    he does not need to change his political ideology one bit, merely his affiliation, and bingo, a brilliant political move.

    if he was truly upset with the rightward shift of the GOP, he would have left 10 years ago. doubtless, he like many other moderates was turned off by the far right, but remained in the GOP even as a "RINO" to suggest that he has left for ideological purposes does not really ring true, since now, he is going to be labelled a "DINO".

    this was politics. his views aren't changing. He never trusted the far right or the far left...this is about centrist survival and keeping power, and as i said, it is a very wise move on his part.
     
  15. Flashy

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2007
    Messages:
    8,097
    Likes Received:
    3
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    at home
    Independent doesn't mean "completely down the middle".

    Middle and Independent are totally unrelated.

    and yes, there is such thing as an independent, you fool.

    an independent has no affiliation to a specific party or a specific ideology. it has nothing to do with clinging to the "middle" of issues

    you can be a believer in communism, and still be an independent if you do not affiliate yourself with the communist party because you do not like their dogmatic approach.

    do some reading
     
  16. Qua

    Qua
    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2007
    Messages:
    1,507
    Albums:
    2
    Likes Received:
    153
    Gender:
    Male
    This is true, however, that seems to be assuming that Republican voters (or any party's primary voters) care only about electibility. Yeah, it'd be stupid to select a markedly weaker candidate to send into the general election, but if the Republican party believes that whatever candidate they come up with is still strong enough to win the general election they'll select him above Specter so that they can add a conservative presence rather than sending back the moderate Specter. The Republicans need all the party-line support in Congress they can get, and if they can field a conservative candidate with enough strength to win election they will. However, if Specter runs as a Democrat there's little chance of this, but he'll be far from a liberal Democrat.

    So there are three possible scenarios here. 1.Specter runs as a Republican, 2. Specter runs as a Democrat, and 3. Specter loses either primary and does not run. In the end I think the Republicans win to some degree in all three situations, save the scenario that doens't have Specter running at all in the event the Democrat (who is almost certainly more liberal than Specter) wins.

    Even if Specter runs as a Democrat and wins the general election, he's still much more moderate than any Democratic candidate. From the RNC's standpoint, I don't think they're in a bad position at all. If Specter gets defeated in the Republican or Democratic primary, the Republican winner will face a candidate of similar strength and the Republicans will get a chance to gain a more conservative voice in the Senate. If Specter wins the Republican primary, he'll almost certainly get reelected over a more liberal Democrat. Similarly, if he wins the Democratic primary, he'll win over a more liberal Democrat, leaving the options between a conservative Republican and a very moderate Democrat. So unless Specter is not in the general election, the Republicans are holding ground, in terms of voting record, if not Rs and Ds on the floor. Specter is known for voting how he sees fit, and he will do that whether as a Republican or Democrat.

    Sorry for the snarky response, I better see where you're coming from with the added explanation.
     
  17. joyboytoy79

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2006
    Messages:
    8,557
    Albums:
    4
    Likes Received:
    9
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    DC-ish
    Apology accepted, although it really isn't necessary. Snarkiness is commonplace around here. Even I partake in its indulgence on occasion. At least you were voicing a legitimate concern, and I really hadn't made myself clear (but that was on purpose, as I was sort-of baiting faceking - what can I say, i get crabby when i'm sick).

    Anyway, enough rambling.

    I see your point about the RNC winning in any case other than a Specter loss in the Dem primaries. I think, really, the Dems win too, though, in any case other than a non-Specter Republican win in the generals. It seems to me that, while vastly more liberal than the Republican party, the Democrats are atually more centrist than the Republicans. They only seem very liberal in comparison to the extreem right-lean the Republican party has ben experiencing of late. Another moderate Democrat can only help an already moderate Democratic party; strengthening them against the ever less centrist Republican party.

    Damn-it, i'm rambling again! Ugh...

    Anyway, I think Arlen did the right thing for him. Turns out to be a good thing for everyone else involved, too. So, good on him.
     
  18. Dave NoCal

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2006
    Messages:
    1,995
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    256
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Sacramento (CA, US)
    It seems to me that part of the question is to what degree Specter has accomomodated his votes to being a member of the republican party. He may have for the sake of getting along and garnering support during elections. For example, he has vacillated on the issue of making it easier to unionize. Trying to run on this position as a republican in heavily unionized PA might fly if he is getting anti-union republican votes. To get democratic union and union supportive votes in PA he may need to change his position.
    Dave
     
  19. faceking

    faceking Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2004
    Messages:
    7,535
    Albums:
    1
    Likes Received:
    106
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Mavs, NOR * CAL
    Report now coming out that Spector said Obama would campaign for him. I figured this was all and only about Spector making a bandwaggoning attempt to get re-elected. Granted he's always been on both sides of the aisle, and carries a higher Dem approval in his own state. Curious as to why now... not much has really changed over the last few years regarding GOP policy, much less a month ago when he said he'd run as a Republican.

    Reminds me of aging footballers (both American and European) jumping to a club to get a championship, and usually failing miserably. Although this dude is 80, let's see if he can make it to the primary with his wits intact.
     
    #19 faceking, Apr 28, 2009
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2009
  20. houtx48

    Gold Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2006
    Messages:
    7,095
    Likes Received:
    35
    Gender:
    Male
    since spector represents neither tx or ca all we get is opinions.
     
Draft saved Draft deleted