Be a pundit: The Senate Outcome Pool

Discussion in 'Et Cetera, Et Cetera' started by mindseye, Oct 5, 2006.

  1. mindseye

    Gold Member

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    We've got our share of politically-interested posters (look how long the Mark Foley thread is!) -- so maybe there's some interest in this.

    Predict as many of the following as you want:
    1. What will be the party breakdown of Senators after the November elections?
    2. Which seats will change parties?
    3. How will the independent Senators (if any) caucus?
    4. Who will be the next Senate Majority/Minority Leaders?
    My own predictions in a separate post below. Any of you brave enough to predict the House outcomes this far in advance? ;)
     
  2. mindseye

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    My own predictions:

    What will be the party breakdown of Senators after the November elections?

    48 Democrats, 51 Republicans, 1 Independent.

    Which seats will change parties?

    Pennsylvania, Ohio, Montana, Rhode Island. (For clarity, I'm also predicting that Ned Lamont will defeat Joe Lieberman in November, despite being behind in the current polling. (Incidentally, Missouri is the "firewall" state this year. If Claire McCaskill starts pulling significantly ahead of Jim Talent in the polls, then Tennessee and Virginia will fall in line, resulting in a 51-48-1 reversal.)

    How will the independent Senators (if any) caucus?

    Bernie Sanders (I-VT) will caucus with the Democrats, as he has already stated he would. If elected, Joe Lieberman will caucus with the Democrats *unless* there are *exactly* 49 Republican senators (an outcome I don't predict), in which case he will change allegiance for some highly coveted committee positions.

    Who will be the next Senate Majority/Minority Leaders?

    Republican: Mitch McConnell (KY)
    Democrat: Harry Reid (NV)
     
  3. ManiacalMadMan

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    I hope not...
    Personally I would like to see Schlesinger have a surprise upset win on this one Clearly that would sink the cleats into not only the Democratic party (by squashing Ned) but also the two-sided Democrat who has been scum from the start (that would be Joe) I lost all respect for Lieberman when he showed he was not even man enough to risk losing any over-paid political job a few years back when he ran for both Vice President and Senator just to assure his sorry ass of having a job. Hell, if the bastard had been any good he would have been able to regain a Senatorial position in the follow up election During the ensuing years, Lie-berman has postured anywhere and everywhere in order to keep his cushy job Sadly the residents of this fair state seem to have too much nutmeg plugging the transmitter routes in their brains to realize what a disaster Lie-berman really is...and for the record he wouldn't even make a good Republican, although he poses with George and other Republicans at every opportunity (likes to keep all his options open).


    So remember resident (and non-resident) voters of Connecticut vote for Alan Schlesinger on election day. Schlesinger...for a brighter future and a happier tomorrow.
     
  4. ceg1526

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    The only race I'll predict at the minute is Max Baucus going down in flames in Montana. I'll have to polish up my crystal ball for the others.

    I am hoping that Lamont wins in CT, but I expect that he and Lieberman will split the Democratic vote, and Schlesinger will waltz in (I hadn't thought about Lieberman switching parties if he won - good obs Mindseye). I've always liked Chaffey in Rhode Island, since he seems to actually think before speaking, but know nothing of his challenger.

    I don't expect the Foley case will have much effect on the house races (although I expect his vacant seat to go Democratic, that is, if the Diebold Corporation will allow it). Hastert will not win by as much a margin as expected, but he'll be back.

    Take care

    Ceg
     
  5. mindseye

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    I admit I'm going out on a limb by predicting that Lamont will win the Connecticut seat. Polls show Lamont in the low 40s, Lieberman in the upper 40's (one poll showed him in the low 50's), and Schlesinger hovering around 5%. That means that the bulk of Lieberman's support in the polls comes from Republicans, who are supporting him instead of Schlesinger.

    Honestly, though, I think it unlikely that only 5% of Connecticutters will vote for Schlesinger -- my rationale for this: Even a crazy-ass carpetbagger like Alan Keyes won 20% of the vote in his race. If Schlesinger makes a showing as high as 15%, for example, that saps 10% from Lieberman, putting him in second.

    I just can't see that many Republicans willing to vote for a "Democrat" when they have their own candidate on the ballot, no matter what they say over the phone to pollsters.

    Sadly -- the idea that people will tell pollsters one thing, but then vote differently, is also the reason that I'm less optimistic about Tennessee than other pundits. I lived in Virginia during the Wilder-Coleman gubernatorial race, where Wilder's actual vote was much lower than his support in the polls, and I'm concerned that Ford's support-by-phone may not translate into support-at-the-polls.
     
  6. ceg1526

    ceg1526 Member

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    I'm surprised anyone can run state-wide and only garner 5% of a poll. How bad is Schlesinger?

    And I meant to say Conrad Burns rather than Max Baucus in my post above. Baucus is the senior democratic senator from Montana, and is not running this year. Mind fart - I got confused by the "B's.

    Take care

    Ceg
     
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