Events in Belarus are most disturbing. There is a UK statement avaiable at the British Embassy website. The first people to suffer are the people of Belarus. But these events also have impact on the EU. Right now much of the EU is utterly dependent on gas which is piped through Belarus. The EU is therefore dependent on stability in Belarus. There is a joint US-EU statement. To me this reads as very weak. IMO this is going to be as big a test of the EU as the euro crisis. I think the EU is going into 2011 with both a security headache and a debt headache. And IMO the EU is not able to respond effectively to either.
Lukashenko's 4th term election may well have repercussions especially when it's viewed as maybe peppered with fraud and with receiving a nearly 80% vote there is little doubt but Time will tell. These are turbulent times everywhere, this is simply another hardship and hurdle. Will this turn the citizens into an angry mob which will fnd a leader in Sannikov or somebody else willing and able to stage a successful coup? Impossible to say as is what effect that might have everywhere. If Lukashenko is left unchallenged, maybe things wll continue as they have been which at least is familiar territory for all involved.
http://www.eegas.com/images/archive/Eurasia.JPG It would seem the majority is pumped through Ukraine, also a line is present through Finland and another through the baltic countries. the North Sea and Turkey are also outside alternatives. I don't think the pipeline through Turkey is up and running yet though.
This map shows the pipes through Belarus: Belarus Gas Pipelines There are of coure alternative pipes and alternative sources as pointed out above, but I don't think it is possible for Eastern Europe to get the quantity of gas it presently consumes from alternative sources. Belarus turning off the supply would be a significant problem.
