Blockheads

HamYai

Experimental Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2008
Posts
730
Media
0
Likes
7
Points
103
Location
UK
Sexuality
80% Straight, 20% Gay
Gender
Male
In the immortal words of Mr Ian Dury, of the above named group, "There ain't half been some clever bastards".

So maybe someone here will be able to answer me something.

In the UK, we have a National Lottery.

You have to choose any 6 numbers (from 0 - 49) pay your quid and cross your fingers.

The odds against all six being drawn are put at something over 14m to 1.

I'm no mathematician, so I take their word for it.

What I'm not so sure about is a friend's assertion that the odds of numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 appearing in the same draw (appearing in any sort of numerical order is irrelevant) is equal to any other combination of 6 random numbers.

Is he correct?:confused:

Noel Coward was a charmer.
As a writer he was a brahma.
Velvet jackets and pyjamas,
"the gay divorce" and other dramas.

There ain't half been some clever bastards
(Lucky bleeders, lucky bleeders)
There ain't half been some clever bas-tards.

Van Gough did some eyeball pleasers.
He must have been a pencil squeezer.
He didn't do the Mona Lisa,
That was an Italian geezer.

There ain't half been some clever bastards
(Lucky bleeders, lucky bleeders)
There ain't half been some clever bas-tards.

Einstein can't be classed as witless.
He claimed atoms were the littlest.
When you did a bit of splitting-em-ness
Frighten everybody shitless

There ain't half been some clever bastards.
Probably got help from their mum
(who had help from her mum).
There ain't half been some clever bastards.
Now that we've had some,
let's hope that there's lots more to come.

There ain't half been some clever bastards
(Lucky bleeders, lucky bleeders)
There ain't half been some clever bas-tards.

Okey-dokey!
Oh!
Segovia.
Da-laa la-laa da-daa da-lee
De dump di dump de dump-dump-diddle li-lee.

There ain't half been some clever bastards
(Lucky bleeders, lucky bleeders)
There ain't half been some clever bastards
(Lucky bleeders, lucky bleeders)
There ain't half been some clever bastards
(Lucky bleeders, lucky bleeders)
There ain't half been some clever........
..................................bastards.
 
Last edited:

Deno

Cherished Member
Joined
Apr 19, 2006
Posts
4,631
Media
1
Likes
407
Points
303
Sexuality
No Response
well the other combination has to be pick but yes he is correct.

interesting info:

  • The National Weather Service lists your odds of getting struck by lightning in any given year as 1 in 400,000 -- that's more than 200 times better odds than the "pick 6" lottery. Odds of winning the 29-state Powerball jackpot: 146,107,962:1. Odds that there will be an Extinction Level Event in any given year (i.e. killer asteroid): About 100,000,000:1
  • You can improve your odds by buying more tickets more frequently, but keep in mind that the numbers are very, very large. To improve your odds to 50/50 in the Powerball lottery, you would have to buy two tickets a week, every week without fail for 702,442 years... and three months.
 
Last edited:

drumstyck

Experimental Member
Joined
Aug 22, 2006
Posts
718
Media
0
Likes
5
Points
163
Sexuality
100% Straight, 0% Gay
Gender
Male
i believe the odds would be the same...just because numbers are sequential wouldnt eliminate them from the randomness...

as far as the odds...you have to pick six different numbers, there are no repeats? so the odds go from 1-in-50 to 1-in-49 to 1-in-48 and so on...
 

ManlyBanisters

Sexy Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2007
Posts
12,253
Media
0
Likes
58
Points
183
Would they? Surely if 1 comes up the chances of 2 being next are the same as the chances of any other number being next, then on the next ball the chances of 3 coming up are just the same as the chances of any other number coming up... and so on.

The fact that a previous number is numerically adjacent does not affect the odds of a certain number appearing.

That would be like saying I shouldn't choose my birth date and birth month as two of my lottery numbers because if my birth month comes up it is less likely that my birth date will. Probability is NOT aware they are related. The fact that the balls even have numbers on them is actually irrelevant - there could be 50 different pictures of animals, or 50 different colours - the principle is the same.
 
Last edited:

B_dumbcow

Experimental Member
Joined
Jan 3, 2008
Posts
3,132
Media
5
Likes
8
Points
123
Same chances... why should

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

be less likely than

22, 1, 13, 26, 9, 11

???

Those exact combinations are just as likely to come up as any others. The lottery machine just picks out random balls... and 1 is just as random as 38.



I think anyway. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.
 

cockoloco

Experimental Member
Joined
May 26, 2008
Posts
2,743
Media
9
Likes
4
Points
258
Location
Uruguay
Sexuality
100% Gay, 0% Straight
Gender
Male
Thank you all for helping me see clear!! I got dizzy there for a moment... happens when I overthink and god knows I'm an underqualified cat
 

HamYai

Experimental Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2008
Posts
730
Media
0
Likes
7
Points
103
Location
UK
Sexuality
80% Straight, 20% Gay
Gender
Male
If you factor in "coincidence" which, whilst not a science, is surely a factor, if the chances of picking the correct 6 from 49 is over 14million to 1, what is the odds of those numbers coincidentally corresponding to your family's ages as well?

Surely a factor, though I know not scientifically or mathematically so.
 

HamYai

Experimental Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2008
Posts
730
Media
0
Likes
7
Points
103
Location
UK
Sexuality
80% Straight, 20% Gay
Gender
Male
Probability neither knows nor cares when your Aunty Mildred was born. :no:

How'd you know I had an Aunty Mildred?

But gut feeling tells me otherwise, so I wouldn't use ages etc, (nor would I or anyone else use 123456 - which begs the question, if you wouldn't choose 123456, then you shouldn't actually choose any of them).
 

Phil Ayesho

Superior Member
Joined
Feb 26, 2008
Posts
6,189
Media
0
Likes
2,789
Points
333
Location
San Diego
Sexuality
69% Straight, 31% Gay
Gender
Male
Would they? Surely if 1 comes up the chances of 2 being next are the same as the chances of any other number being next, then on the next ball the chances of 3 coming up are just the same as the chances of any other number coming up... and so on.

This is not correct.

What it comes down to in odds is cumulative versus absolute.

The odds of any given number being picked next are the same... but the odds of picking 1 thru 6 in serial order are much slimmer.

Let's just look at the subset of possible combinations of 1 thru 6 being drawn.

you can draw 123456 ( the one combination you want) OR

123465 or
123645 or
126345 or
162345 or
612345 or

And that is just by moving the position of the 6... I can do that with each of the other 5 numbers... giving 30 possible combinations that have at 4 of the numbers in serial order.... ( minus a few duplicate combinations.)

I can do that again with the order reversed and get a lot more combinations
And again with the order of the numbers entirely scrambled.

In all, there are around 90 possible combinations of those numbers

Only 1 of which is 123456.


So- while the odds of any one of those 90 combinations being drawn are equal... the odds that 123456 will be the specific combination drawn are 90-1 against.


So you have much better odds of drawing the number 1 thru 6 in any order, than you do of drawing the numbers in a specific order.

This is why most lottery schemes pay out far less for merely having the 6 numbers.... and far more for having the 6 numbers in specific order.
 

HamYai

Experimental Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2008
Posts
730
Media
0
Likes
7
Points
103
Location
UK
Sexuality
80% Straight, 20% Gay
Gender
Male
This is why most lottery schemes pay out far less for merely having the 6 numbers.... and far more for having the 6 numbers in specific order.

So the fact that the UK lottery pays out the same amount whether or not we get them in the correct order is a bit of a bitch, then.
 

D_Thoraxis_Biggulp

Experimental Member
Joined
Jul 16, 2005
Posts
1,330
Media
0
Likes
3
Points
181
I believe the odds WOULD change if the numbers had to appear in a specific order.

Advanced statistics was always my achille's heel, but I think you're right.

6 different numbers, picked from 0 - 49, in any order have the odds of:
(1/50)*(1/49)*(1/48)*(1/47)*(1/46)*(1/45)=
1 in 11,441,304,000

But assuming you have the right numbers, the odds of the right order are:
(1/6)*(1/5)*(1/4)*(1/3)*(1/2)=
1 in 720


Then again, like I said, Adv. Stat. isn't my strong point. It might be that the order odds are what make the original odds 1 in 11 Billion. If you divide that by the order odds, you get 1 in 16 million, which is closer to the stated odds. Either way, it proves that order matters. Without it, it gives rise to 719 more winning combinations.
 

cockoloco

Experimental Member
Joined
May 26, 2008
Posts
2,743
Media
9
Likes
4
Points
258
Location
Uruguay
Sexuality
100% Gay, 0% Straight
Gender
Male
Would they? Surely if 1 comes up the chances of 2 being next are the same as the chances of any other number being next, then on the next ball the chances of 3 coming up are just the same as the chances of any other number coming up... and so on.

The fact that a previous number is numerically adjacent does not affect the odds of a certain number appearing.

That would be like saying I shouldn't choose my birth date and birth month as two of my lottery numbers because if my birth month comes up it is less likely that my birth date will. Probability is NOT aware they are related. The fact that the balls even have numbers on them is actually irrelevant - there could be 50 different pictures of animals, or 50 different colours - the principle is the same.

but say, if you have 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6

and the result is:

2 4 1 5 6 3 or
4 6 5 3 1 2 or
6 5 4 3 2 1, etc

you win, right?

However, if the numbers HAVE to be in a particular order, the previously named possibilities wouldn't apply to win! There's only ONE combination.

Do I make myself clear? I'm getting dizzy once again........
 

HamYai

Experimental Member
Joined
Mar 10, 2008
Posts
730
Media
0
Likes
7
Points
103
Location
UK
Sexuality
80% Straight, 20% Gay
Gender
Male
So, I dunno how many tickets are actually sold each draw (but we have a population of 60 million + and whilst not everyone buys a ticket, many buy more than one many, many, many more than one, so it's fair to assume - this is a guess, mind - that more than 14 million and possible a multiplication of 14 million tickets are sold).

So how laws of averages, statistics, probabilities are that someone should win each draw.

Yet often, we have "Roll-Over'" for a significant number of draws and yet at other times, we have multiple winners of a single draw.

And there is invariably an X-Files stylee roll-over for the big Xmas draw, each and every year.

Wierd, or what?

Could it be a con?