Brexit

[southeastone]

#despite Brexit?

 

[southeastone]

#brexit despite

 

[dandelion]

southestone,
Actually the latest yougov gave conservatives 30% of the vote and labour 28%. The labour vote went down a bit, the tory stayed exactly the same. The headline figures you quote are grossed up by ignoring the 20% or or so who say they dont know who they will vote for. Both parties have lost about 25% of the people who voted for them in 2017, to 'dont know'.

What that really says is whoever can capture the 20% and add it to their existing 30% will end up with 50%. What we saw last time was labour sweep up most of the unaffiliated and nearly overtake tories on the day. The question is, if there was a real election tomorrow, would they do it again?

Again I see you have a rather odd piece from civitas. For starters, the referendum did not produce a clear result. It was a very narrow win for leave representing about 1/3 of actual voters. Only 1/3 voted to leave! That is certainly not what the piece suggests, though it uses the phrase 'a large number', which could be anything over 1000?

Historically in recent decades in opinion polls, about 1/3 wanting to leave might be about right. But it has always also been the case that when people were asked how much they cared about different issues, membership of the EU came way down the bottom of the list. If in 1999 the media had few people proprounding the cause of Brexit, that would have been perfectly in accord with the importance given it by voters.

Now the question is, is the fall in labour support and modest rise in lib dem support shown in the same survey, because people want labour to come out for remain?

 

[dandelion]

New Uk government plan how we can survive Brexit....https://archive.is/GnNsi

Apparently we are going to ask the rest of the world to pretend we have not left the EU!

The reason seems to be that is is in fact impossible to negotiate new trade deals which would disentangle us from the EU without destroying the Uk economy.

 

[dandelion]

Emergency legislation being prepared because apparently we only have a few days left to sign up to the vienna convention on international trade, so that a mere 1200 british truckers out of 75,000 will still be able to operate in the EU after brexit. Theres going to be a big row abour that!

 

[dandelion]

EU says there will not be a transitional arrangement unless their terms are met. In effect, that the Uk continues to operate in all respects as a member, but ceases to take part in management of the EU. (and will have formally left).

This is hardly surprising, because everyone has known from the start the EU only works one way. But leave have lied that some compromise was possible, the magical 'have cake and eat it' solutions. These were never possible.

 

[Elmer Gantry]

The Brussels bureaucrats are going to hang onto this one with their last shreds of fingernails.

 

[ManchesterTom]

EU says there will not be a transitional arrangement unless their terms are met. In effect, that the Uk continues to operate in all respects as a member, but ceases to take part in management of the EU. (and will have formally left).

This is hardly surprising, because everyone has known from the start the EU only works one way. But leave have lied that some compromise was possible, the magical 'have cake and eat it' solutions. These were never possible.

Yes, the promises were never possible. Why are we still being lied to?

 

[852147]

#despite Brexit?

View attachment 973981

These poll numbers defiantly triggered someone

 

[southeastone]

This is hardly surprising, because everyone has known from the start the EU only works one way. .

I thought you said it was a "democracy" that we could control?

 

[Jason]

#despite Brexit?

View attachment 973981

It's only one poll, and it is an out-rider, which makes it suspect. However if people voted as this poll suggests there would be a small Conservative majority.

I think it is instructive to consider how opposition parties are usually doing around a year after an election. The opposition usually has a solid lead. It is certainly reasonable to hope that we've seen the high point for Corbyn and it is now a slow decline.

The government is getting relentless bad press over Brexit. We are in effect seeing all the warts of a negotiation. By this time next year we should see a Brexit agreement in place and the Conservative ratings pulling clear of Labour.

 

[dandelion]

I thought you said it was a "democracy" that we could control?

I fear you still do not understand the difference between being a member and not being a member. As a member we have a total veto on future changes to the EU. The treaties cannot be changed unless all members agree. Nothing can be done without our consent, and no rights in those treaties can be taken away. With regard to the day to day running, we have vetos on many decisions and others are subject to votes where a supermajority is needed to make changes. Its rather like parliament, where people send delegates to represent them and decide what to do. Except the EU council is rather more democratic than the Uk parliament, because in the Uk a bare majority of 1 is all you need to force something through. If we stop being a member we lose all that, and the countries which are still members get to make all the decisions without us.

If we have a soft Brexit we will still get the benefits of the market, but lose all control over how it is run. We will just have to obey all the rules the others make.

If we have a hard Brexit we do not make any of the rules. We lose the benefits of market membership. But even to continue trading on WTO terms we will still have to obey most EU rules, which relate to goods or services sold into the EU. Chances are we will STILL have to obey almost all the rules the EU makes. (and some rules 'blamed' on the EU are really WTO rules or United Nations rules, or rules under other international treaties, and all of them still apply)

It is our biggest market, and that will not change (unless we fancy a big reduction in our living standards). If the UK stopped trading with the world we would see our standard of living fall year by year and a lot of us would starve. We will be very lucky indeed if we leave the EU and still have trading terms with the rest of the world as good as those the EU has negotiated. We will have to start from scratch, and countries will give us worse terms, because we will have a worse negotiating position. (frankly, we will be desperate for any deal, and countries all around the world will have vetos over any deals we try to make which affect their existing WTO deals. Because we will be bound by WTO rules. It is impossible to do international trade without belonging to international trading clubs and accepting their rules. The EU is the biggest international trading club in the world, that is what we are giving up. )

Likely we will be forced to accept freedom of movement from all sorts of places as part of the new trading terms. The government has never promised to reduce immigration anyway, because it knows things like banking, the NHS, farming, the building industry, all rely in imported labour. The government has only promised to reduce immigration until local labour is all used up. Well it is. Under new rules it has started to apply to non EU applicants, the government is already turning away doctors and teachers who have been offered jobs here because there is a shortage, because they will not make enough money to qualfy under these new rules. If they extend this to EU workers as planned, it will just create big labour shortages and shrink the economy (or extend NHS waiting lists). It just isnt going to work (unless we have such a big recession here, the jobs all disappear inside the UK and there are lost of unemployed british people to do them)

Never mind it plans a wholesale ban on immigrants to low paid jobs, which obviously will not be filled. Unless Uk people do them. Do you really want to be forced from your decently paid job as a political lobbyist or in a car factory, to clean for the NHS at less pay? A lot less pay? Right now we all get a subsidy from these low paid workers, who are doing essential jobs but nor being paid a fair wage. Its fair if you are an immigrant, and the pay looks good compared to Poland; and then we get the benefit of cheap labour while they get more than they would otherwise. We get that the enterprise as a whole continues to be done in the Uk, because without this extra cheap labour, the whole thing including the well paid jobswe like and the taxes it pays will move somewhere else.

Industry currently based in the Uk which depends on free movement of goods within the EU market will leave the UK and base itself in the EU. Industry based in the Uk which needs a bigger market than the UK can provide, will depart for somehwere, maybe the EU maybe anywhere else in the world. Any industry undercut under the new trade terms will close. (this has even been predicted by leavers!)

 

[dandelion]

I think it is instructive to consider how opposition parties are usually doing around a year after an election. The opposition usually has a solid lead. It is certainly reasonable to hope that we've seen the high point for Corbyn and it is now a slow decline.

Isnt that precisely the thinking amongst tories a few months ago when they decided to call an election? Whereas oppositions usually have a solid lead, which then disappears in the campaign, the government had a solid lead which disappeared in the campaign leaving them worse off than when they started. The tory vote did not go up in the new figures, the number of undecideds went up. In the recent campaign, they decided for labour.

The government is getting relentless bad press over Brexit.

When polled, the public relentlessly says government is doing a bad job over Brexit. I expect that is why the press thinks so too.

We are in effect seeing all the warts of a negotiation..

No. We are seing government lies brought face to face with reality and it shows them up as lies. Right now the government is still pretending it can make a good Brexit deal, because the only thing it can do is pretend.

 

[eurotop40]

The Guardian today:
"May turns to Chinese billionaire Jack Ma for post-Brexit trade ideas
Prime minister said to be ‘hugely impressed’ by Alibaba founder after meeting at Davos"
"Ma has spoken out in recent months about China’s single-party system, contrasting it with the unpredictability of US politics and claiming it provides stability. The Alibaba chairman also offered his support for online control by the Chinese government, suggesting companies such as Google and Facebook needed to “follow the rules” if they wanted to operate in China."

That's where the UK is heading to. The Tories as the single party. Have fun guys!!!

Btw: AliBaba is selling goods made in China. It doesn't work with UK products...

 

[dandelion]

That's where the UK is heading to.

Certainly jason has said he supports overthrowing Uk democracy should voters choose anyone other than the tories. He usually reports tory policy.

 

[southeastone]

As a member we have a total veto on future changes to the EU.
)

Vetoes have in most cases been removed and the majority of EU decisions are now made on a vote, the remaining areas are being eroded as the eu tightens it's grip. Even on subjects such as tax which have so far been allowed to be set by each member state are now being taken over, in an eu paper they say that this year they intend to impose the passerlle clause enshrined in article 48 of the Lisbon treaty to override the previous need for unanimity in favour of a simple majority. It intends to use this rule change to impose higher tax rates on Ireland for one with regard to corporation tax levels. If this move fails to get through the eu parliament then they say they will instead impose article 116 of the treaty which would strip countries of their vetoes on tax matters straight away. That my friend is the thin end of a very fat wedge..

 

[Jason]

Certainly jason has said he supports overthrowing Uk democracy should voters choose anyone other than the tories. He usually reports tory policy.

I have real difficulties with this idea.

Democracy is democracy. We all have to accept outcomes.

However there are some outcomes that are so terrible they really do provide exceptions. Marxism is a doctrine every bit as odious as the third Reich and with a higher body count. When confronting evil it can be necessary to take some brave decisions.

 

[185248]

I have real difficulties with this idea.

Democracy is democracy. We all have to accept outcomes.

However there are some outcomes that are so terrible they really do provide exceptions. Marxism is a doctrine every bit as odious as the third Reich and with a higher body count. When confronting evil it can be necessary to take some brave decisions.

The problem Democracy runs into a bit of a wall when it's 49% to 51%. This is where we have difficulties until a strong leader is willing to stand up and tell it like it is.

Have you been in the local shop, pub or bar, building site, caught a cab or uber lately, or the past few years? Where politics are discussed regularly, daily?

Most just want the truth from those they elect, but it seems more along the line of popularity contest on ho we elect leaders now.

So, we get what we get. Try to stop the steamroller of social media .

The minority have found another voice through social media. The majority are a bit slower to react.

It's much like AI, and robots helping farmers in Australia because they can't get workers.

I watched landline the other night (bare with me, it's going somewhere ) Where they are trying to invent robots to navigate farms.

Ok, number 1 problem for me is where and who will travel 1,000 kls to service a malfunction. When I have to wait a week for a washing machine tech to visit a city address?

So, where are all these skilled people being trained for the new world we all identify ourselves as occupying? What I am drawing attention too, is where will future income, wealth, be derived from?

This is the question which stumps your brexit government, and every other government around the world. Who will produce the income to pay??

Do you wish a government who is pro human labour, or pro advancing a jobless, unskilled human population?

Because, these are the issues discussed in the bars, pubs, building sites etc. Where will our young be employed? Our next generation.

It's not a political issue, Brexit or otherwise. It is a human issue.

 

[Jason]

The problem Democracy runs into a bit of a wall when it's 49% to 51%. This is where we have difficulties until a strong leader is willing to stand up and tell it like it is.

I think this is fine when both issues are morally acceptable. The Scots had an independence referendum. I'm personally very pleased that Scotland has remained part of the UK, but I do not have a moral problem with the idea of an independent Scotland. Both remaining in the UK and leaving are morally acceptable outcomes.

I would have a problem with a referendum in the UK on the death penalty. I would regard its re-introduction as immoral. I certainly think that such a decision could reasonably be challenged by international courts. I do think democracy is not supreme in this one.

In 2010 and 2015 the UK faced elections around competing political ideologies, basically centre right v centre left (in 2010) and centre right v middle left (in 2015). What we faced in 2017 (and are now facing with ever-greater clarity) is a choice between parties of the centre right (Con, DUP), centre left (LibDem, SNP, PC) and Marxist revolutionary left (Labour, Sinn Fein). The issue here is that Marxism is not morally acceptable. It is equally as odious as the Nazi party, and has a greater body count.

In Germany in 1933 President von Hindenburg appointed Hitler as Chancellor. von Hindenburg was opposed to Hitler, yet felt that the democratic outcome (Hitler in charge of the largest party and no agreement among the opposition) gave him no choice. He acted as a democrat. Had he realised the moral abyss of the Nazi doctrine he would presumably have acted otherwise - and I'm not letting him off the hook, because as President he should have realised. Correct action from von Hindenburg would have been to do something different. This might have been his own resignation. He should have realised that democracy does not trump absolutely everything. It is not possible to say that the Nazi party were fine just because people voted for them, just as it is not possible for individuals to justify their part in genocide just because they were ordered.

The very British solution to the problem of Marxism is not to vote for it, and I hope this will be the outcome. However could the Queen open a Marxist parliament? I think it breaks her coronation oath, so no. Maybe she would resign (herself and her successors) on the morning after a Marxist victory. Or maybe she would rule without parliament (ie through the Privy Council). I think we are looking at a situation where democracy would have to be put second to the fight against evil.

 

[southeastone]

Btw: AliBaba is selling goods made in China. It doesn't work with UK products...

Plenty of Scots whiskey on there, I have a friend who ships shit loads of the stuff through Alibaba