Brexit

Jason

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Sad day for allot of folks in Britain, sad for the 13 million who didn't bother to vote, the 18 million who weren't allowed to vote (folks living in the UK) If it works out, I'll be glad to say I was wrong, but rare is it that I am wrong about things like this... Shall see what happens with Right Wing Idiots in charge

It's a day of rejoicing for many in the UK. We are divided.

The whole establishment fought for Remain - and still lost. I don't think Leave can be regarded as somehow right wing. The constituencies that voted most strongly for Leave were in many cases then Labour seats - I'm thinking particularly of NE England. Brexit has cut across left/right politics. The achievement of Boris as the last election was to align Conservatives with Leave. He retained just about all the traditional Conservative votes and in addition got a lot of Labour Leave votes.

Yes we can all bewail the low quality of our political class. But can anyone truly wish for Corbyn in charge of a coalition of chaos, with Abbott as Home Secretary?
 

spaj8987

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When you judge people or countries on the amont of skin pigmentation they have, that's being racist.

Did i judge those countries on their skin color or did i say (which is a factual statement) majority white countries? What? Something wrong with pointing out that the two countries who've had white people in power for hundreds of years are the exact countries currently eating themselves alive?

Isn't that also a factual statement? Are facts racist now?
 

dongalong

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Did i judge those countries on their skin color or did i say (which is a factual statement) majority white countries? What? Something wrong with pointing out that the two countries who've had white people in power for hundreds of years are the exact countries currently eating themselves alive?

Isn't that also a factual statement? Are facts racist now?
I give up, you can't avoid mentioning race and skin colour.
Maybe travelling around Europe would wake you up to the reality of so called "white countries".
 

spaj8987

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I give up, you can't avoid mentioning race and skin colour.
Maybe travelling around Europe would wake you up to the reality of so called "white countries".

And what exactly makes you think i haven't been? Also, i've talked about a lot of topics..and i mean a lot of topics on this site. Shall we check every last comment i've made so far to see if you're correct? Or should we just use common sense and point out that you're being overly emotional right now?

You're choice.
 

Thikn2velvet1

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HAPPY BREXIT DAY!
If you voted remain I understand that you didn't want to see this day happen but here we are, this was the result of several democratic votes, the people have spoken.
I feel confident in the UK's potential to succeed by spending those EU billions locally and opening up to the world. I'm pretty sure that the EU will make sure that European businesses won't suffer from losing one of their biggest markets.
I am quite happy to be alive during this transformative period, I find it quite exciting and I'm optimistic about what can be achieved without an unaccountable, unelected commission having authority over the Brits.

If you were a person creating a strategy for increasing the value of your business, would you focus on forging a relationship with Europe, or would it be looking to the USA and The Far East and China?

Europe has stopped growing, its GDP is basically flat. The US and China continue to grow. There may certainly be other factors at play, but economically Brexit should be very successful.
 

Industrialsize

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If you were a person creating a strategy for increasing the value of your business, would you focus on forging a relationship with Europe, or would it be looking to the USA and The Far East and China?

Europe has stopped growing, its GDP is basically flat. The US and China continue to grow. There may certainly be other factors at play, but economically Brexit should be very successful.

Gross Domestic Product of United States grew 2.3% in 2019 compared to last year. This rate is 6 -tenths of one percent less than the figure of 2.9% published in 2018.
United States (USA) GDP - Gross Domestic Product 2019
 

Thikn2velvet1

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BTW the GDP of the US is larger than the GDP of the entire EU and growing at almost twice the rate of the EU. If I wanted to sell widgets, would I put them in Sears brick/ mortar stores, or would I list them on Amazon?
 
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Thikn2velvet1

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Gross Domestic Product of United States grew 2.3% in 2019 compared to last year. This rate is 6 -tenths of one percent less than the figure of 2.9% published in 2018.
United States (USA) GDP - Gross Domestic Product 2019

Dust, you should stay out of economic discussions.

EU membership has many benefits, but economic growth is not one of them – new findings

European Union GDP Growth Rate | 1995-2019 Data | 2020 Forecast | Chart | Calendar | Historical | News

Dust, unfortunately you have little cognitive awareness of math, growth and growth rates. The US GDP is growing more than twice as fast as the EU’s. You actually bolstered my position with your post, that is how little you understood what you posted. The EU grew at less than 1% in 2019, and only grew .1% in the 4th Q.

Remember we are talking growth RATES here, where small differences mean a lot. If you had $1000 to invest, would you want a 2.3% interest rate, or a .6% rate of return on your money?

Sadly, I am not sure you know the difference, based on your foolish post here.

Anyways, economically Brexit is a pure no brainer, it is undoubtably a brilliant strategic move. The common man/woman got this right.
 

Jason

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Anyways, economically Brexit is a pure no brainer, it is undoubtably a brilliant strategic move. The common man/woman got this right.

Is this wisdom of crowds?

The UK has had a range of views over Brexit with many people energised to think about how a topic they know about would be changed by either Leaving or Remaining., and have made decisions on this basis (including the decision not to vote). The Referendum and the 2019 election expressed a crowd view. I think we have a situation where the requirements for wisdom of crowds to apply is satisfied.

If wisdom of crowds applies then the decision is actually better than the average of the decision of the supposed experts. In a sense I think we've set up a huge experiment. If Brexit is clearly a success (say by 2025) then wisdom of crowds theory has an outstanding example to support its theory.
 

Thikn2velvet1

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Is this wisdom of crowds?

The UK has had a range of views over Brexit with many people energised to think about how a topic they know about would be changed by either Leaving or Remaining., and have made decisions on this basis (including the decision not to vote). The Referendum and the 2019 election expressed a crowd view. I think we have a situation where the requirements for wisdom of crowds to apply is satisfied.

If wisdom of crowds applies then the decision is actually better than the average of the decision of the supposed experts. In a sense I think we've set up a huge experiment. If Brexit is clearly a success (say by 2025) then wisdom of crowds theory has an outstanding example to support its theory.

It could be. “Experts” tend to have to have biases, particularly confirmation bias, and since the number of experts is so small, those biases have an outsized effect.

Millions of people might see things more balanced, because the sample is so large. With so little economic growth in the EU, I don’t see the advantage of belonging to it. If the pie never really gets bigger, then if I take something, someone else loses. Zero sum. If the pie is growing, then if I take something, no one loses, there is still more pie. If Eastern European workers move to GB, EE loses productivity.

I think Brexit will be a success.
 
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Jason

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I think Brexit will be a success.

So do I!

There are issues which people in the UK see (particularly SE Enngland), but which were not part of the overt discussion:

1) schools are stretched. Yes, there is extra funding (quite a lot of it) but the lions-share goes to support children of EU migrants. This certainly includes language support, but also a much higher prevalence of special needs. Everyone is content for each individual kid to be helped, but when the effect is that your own kids are harmed, well people don't like it.

2) hospitals are at capacity. Every A&E is taking EU nationals direct from the airports. Eastern European nations are publishing information on how to do it - basically get on the plane, and if possible get through passport control at a UK airport before you ask for an ambulance. Our hospitals just cannot function as the free hospitals for Eastern Europe - and if it is your granny with a long wait in A&E it is easy to get miffed with the stream of EU nationals demanding health care.

3) UK has pretty decent employment levels. The key problem is the UK young underachiever. The jobs these would once have got are being taken by capable, hard-working, polite, reliable East Europeans. This is a huge problem.

4) We've got an accommodation shortage. There's no easy answer here, but EU migration has not helped.

It is interesting that the two home nations that don't have these problems to a significant extent (Scotland and NI) voted Remain. I think people have seen things in their own community and reacted to these.
 
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Industrialsize

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So do I!

There are issues which people in the UK see (particularly SE Enngland), but which were not part of the overt discussion:

1) schools are stretched. Yes, there is extra funding (quite a lot of it) but the lions-share goes to support children of EU migrants. This certainly includes language support, but also a much higher prevalence of special needs. Everyone is content for each individual kid to be helped, but when the effect is that your own kids are harmed, well people don't like it.

2) hospitals are at capacity. Every A&E is taking EU nationals direct from the airports. Eastern European nations are publishing information on how to do it - basically get on the plane, and if possible get through passport control at a UK airport before you ask for an ambulance. Our hospitals just cannot function as the free hospitals for Eastern Europe - and if it is your granny with a long wait in A&E it is easy to get miffed with the stream of EU nationals demanding health care.

3) UK has pretty decent employment levels. The key problem is the UK young underachiever. The jobs these would once have got are being taken by capable, hard-working, polite, reliable East Europeans. This is a huge problem.

4) We've got an accommodation shortage. There's no easy answer here, but EU migration has not helped.

It is interesting that the two home nations that don't have these problems to a significant extent (Scotland and NI) voted Remain. I think people have seen things in their own community and reacted to these.
(Saying the quiet part out loud)
 

Thikn2velvet1

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So do I!

There are issues which people in the UK see (particularly SE Enngland), but which were not part of the overt discussion:

1) schools are stretched. Yes, there is extra funding (quite a lot of it) but the lions-share goes to support children of EU migrants. This certainly includes language support, but also a much higher prevalence of special needs. Everyone is content for each individual kid to be helped, but when the effect is that your own kids are harmed, well people don't like it.

2) hospitals are at capacity. Every A&E is taking EU nationals direct from the airports. Eastern European nations are publishing information on how to do it - basically get on the plane, and if possible get through passport control at a UK airport before you ask for an ambulance. Our hospitals just cannot function as the free hospitals for Eastern Europe - and if it is your granny with a long wait in A&E it is easy to get miffed with the stream of EU nationals demanding health care.

3) UK has pretty decent employment levels. The key problem is the UK young underachiever. The jobs these would once have got are being taken by capable, hard-working, polite, reliable East Europeans. This is a huge problem.

4) We've got an accommodation shortage. There's no easy answer here, but EU migration has not helped.

It is interesting that the two home nations that don't have these problems to a significant extent (Scotland and NI) voted Remain. I think people have seen things in their own community and reacted to these.

I traveled all over Scotland for 5 weeks last summer and I discussed Brexit with a lot of the Scots. They favor the EU, almost to a person, and many want to leave the UK.

Question: Would independent Scotland keep the North Sea oil?
 

spaj8987

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It could be. “Experts” tend to have to have biases, particularly confirmation bias, and since the number of experts is so small, those biases have an outsized effect.

Millions of people might see things more balanced, because the sample is so large. With so little economic growth in the EU, I don’t see the advantage of belonging to it. If the pie never really gets bigger, then if I take something, someone else loses. Zero sum. If the pie is growing, then if I take something, no one loses, there is still more pie. If Eastern European workers move to GB, EE loses productivity.

I think Brexit will be a success.

Yeah, those experts are experts for a reason. They devote a considerable amount of their lives to studying history, numbers, science and so on. They make predictions based of data for a living. So yes. They do have biases. Even confirmation biases. Though not in the way crowds think about those words.

Having a bias or being bias right from the gate isn't the end of the world. That would be like dismissing a cop's suggestions on how a real cop behaves by the book while making a movie based on cops because they are in fact a cop. Then going to a crowd of people and asking how a cop does things by the book and making your movie based off that.

It's the literal definition of stupidity.

Now, it can be understandable if a person doesn't trust the opinion of an expert because they have biases elsewhere. Say asking a cop about police brutality while knowing they have a history of complaints from people about said cop abusing them.

You said nothing about that though. All you said was...

(“Experts” tend to have to have biases, particularly confirmation bias, and since the number of experts is so small, those biases have an outsized effect.)

...which labels all experts in existence not only in the same way but with the same negative connotations. Like saying all white men are racists.

It is very possible for an expert to be bias toward previously found information presented by those in their field. The scientific method. If for forty years scientists have said climate change is real. Then of course another scientist will be bias toward that same finding. Not just because another scientist or many have confirmed it but because they've confirmed it themselves.

Again. You didn't even attempt to address this.

Same goes with confirmation bias. An expert could look for the same results a previous expert has found. Simple to confirm it.

Which is something else you never bothered to once address. Facts. You were so overly concerned with bias that you forgot to address what the facts of brexit were or the facts that have been found about brexit. Which is telling.

Lets break this down a little further though. Your opinion here is....

group think + no evidence > experts + evidence

That doesn't seem right to me. Does it seem right to you?
 

Jason

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I traveled all over Scotland for 5 weeks last summer and I discussed Brexit with a lot of the Scots. They favor the EU, almost to a person, and many want to leave the UK.

Question: Would independent Scotland keep the North Sea oil?

The sea frontier between England and Scotland has never been formally established. It would probably be done by an international law process. The convention is to project the land frontier out to sea, so a border which runs SW to NE would be extended. About a quarter of North Sea oil is in what looks like English waters:

20170909_BRM881.png


There are also issues around who actually invested in developing the oil wells. In short it is complicated, but it isn't as simple as saying it is Scotland's oil.

There's also an issue where these oil fields have been exploited for years and there's not all that much left. New ones coming on stream are with very high extraction costs and are marginal. It would seem crazy to base an economy on an asset near exhaustion.

Then there's the whacky views. There is an independence movement in Shetland, which is linked with Shetland's dislike of Scottish Independence. The idea is that Shetland would become a British Overseas Territory like the Channel Islands and Isle of Man. As such Shetland would have extensive devolution and be outside the UK but still part of the bigger identity that is Britain. And the best of the existing Scottish oil is in Shetland waters.

How whacky do you want? North Sea oil is running out but there are reserves to the NW of British Isles, in the Atlantic. The sea border between UK and Ireland is defined and it is the UK side - specifically Northern Ireland, not Scotland.

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An independent Scotland would have its share of the UK national debt (allocated by population). The UK national debt is large. Because the UK is seen as a safe bet the bond yield is quite low and UK can service it. However an independent Scotland would start with what would be a crippling debt. Yes it could repudiate it, but this would make Scotland an international pariah and unable to borrow, and Scotland has a fearsome annual deficit. The austerity required would be severe.

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RBS is one of Scotland's biggest businesses with its HQ in Scotland. It has just announced that it is moving its principal office to London. HQ is still Edinburgh, but the whole thrust of the move seems to be to facilitate a change. Scotland has a big financial sector (banking and insurance) and it seems that all would abandon an independent Scotland.

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Independence is precious. If Scots really want this then of course it is the right decision. However it would have a huge economic cost. It would also split families and lives. So very many people in Scotland have families in England. Half of the passengers on Scottish trains go to England.
 
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