The UK argued that the TA had to come first as there were too many uncertainties in a WA if there was no certainty if a TA would even happen
By Uk law, the Uk cannot negotiate a trade deal with anyone until it leaves the EU. So that was impossible. Similarly mirror law exists on the continent. And until the Uks new relationship to the EU was clear, then no other country is interested in settling a deal with the Uk anyway. Untill our EU relationship is setled, others do not know what we have to offer, because our relationship to the EU is hugely important to the UK.
However....the WA had the potential to be as all encompassing as the two sides wanted it to be. The EU was willing to write a WA which would have precisely defined our new trade relationship. The UK refused to do this. The UK could not decided what sort of relationship it wanted. Or, it kept saying it wants all the good bits without the bits the UK government doesnt like. I dont regard those as bad bits either, because every restriction comes with a reciprocal right. But government could not even decide what it wanted and did not want, so it was unable to agree terms. We have had years of the Uk conservative government unable to decide, and we still do.Under three different prime ministers who couldnt decide!
We've had problems over the NI border with the EU saying that unless there is a TA there is a huge problem, and in effect arguing that Brexit cannot happen until there is a TA, which of course they would never agree.
Under the irish peace agreement the irish were guaranteed a unified Ireland. This has functioned pretty much like a federal state, with two autonomous regions the north and south, but an open border between them and few cross border trade restictions. The EU agreed to act as guarantor this situation would continue forever, unless the irish decided to change it. And that is exactly what the EU have done. They have required the Irish border stays open. Which means there has to be a border beteeen the island of Ireland and the UK, or the UK has to stay in essential parts of the EU system. The Uk government chose to have a sea border, though it refused to admit this was what it was doing. It has now admitted there must be a sea border, so in effect it has said it will grant independence to N. Ireland so as to get out of its treaty obligations.
The WA was mostly negotiated by Theresa May, and it is awful.
No. it was negotiated by Johnson. Ok, the work was done by May, but at the end of the process fundamentally the Uk had to choose which option it was going for, and that was where the problems began. May failed to get a Uk decision. Johnson made that choice.
There is so much complexity with the NI backstop. It locks the UK into a huge divorce settlement
Oh dear no. The divorce payments are simply what we owe the EU because of past commitments to fund projects which continue. Much of it will have already been paid because it is ongoing contributions to the EU and the conservatives have delayed leaving as long as possible. Thats years of extra money we have already paid. If there had been no agreement whatever, the EU would still have demanded the money and used international treaty law to claim what it was owed. The WA simply sets out agreed arrangement for payments.
Without a TA there is little point in a WA.
The WA was simply the agreed leaving terms. Tying up loose ends. Could have essentially defined very precisely the TA, but the Uk couldnt make up its mind, so it had to be left out.
It now seems unlikely that the UK will get a TA.
We will certainly get agreed rules for future trade. They will be as comprehensive as the UK is willing to commit to. Every trade agreement ever made imposes obligations in return for advantages. Leavers have tied themselves in knots because fundamentally the benefits of EU membership have always been far greater than the disadvantages. The EU is itself a vast trade deal. So what the UK now has to choose is which advantages for the Uk it is willing to give up so as to satisfy leavers. Which is why it has been an impossible decision and endlessly postponed. Do we cut off an arm, or a leg, or maybe both? Will leavers even be happy if we cut off both arms and both legs? Do leavers even care if the Uk dies as a result?
The Uk could show the world it is wiling to simply break any international agreement if feels like. I wonder how people we are negotiating with now would feel about that?
Right now the UK needs a bilateral agreement with France to keep trade flowing Dover-Calais
The EU negotiates on behalf of France and all members. Hows that going to happen? Another fantasy!
..and to address the migrants crossing the English Channel in tiny boats. This is the real prize for the UK.
Prize? Come off it! As an EU member there was an agreement in place for members to manage migrants where they entered the EU. That is dust because we left. Now there is nothing to prevent the French giving these people boats and so solving their own problem.