Brexit

[dandelion]

So where are we now? Brexit has suffered yet another upset.

Cameron originally announced that he would give notice to the Eu the day after the refrendum. This was not true. Cameron refused to have anything to do with pushing through national economic suicide.

May was chosen as a compromise candidate whose job was to adjudicate between the tory MPs who want Brexit and those who do not. And take the blame, because most MPs believe it will end badly, so there will be blame by the voters.

Her administration spent the best part of a year trying to find a good way to leave the EU. They failed. We know they failed because they have refused to explain 'the plan'. if there was a plan leading to a good outcome, they would be shouting it from the rooftops.

Article 50 was trigered because of a need to avoid future EU elections. Which would, maybe still will, become a referendum on the progress of Brexit. Plainly the government was still not ready, but time was pressing. Given the two year deadline this was also poor timing, because it was plain the EU could not negotiate until the completion of german and french elections, still going on.

Then the government called an election to secure a mandate for hard Brexit. The result was a disaster for them. Best result might have been a good win, and proof the public was behind them. Second best to lose and therefore no longer be responsible for the process which they had initiated with no idea how to bring it to a good conclusion.

Worst case, a weak government unable to impose its own will. forced to continue with Brexit but suffering mistake after mistake on the way. Inability to pass any legislation.

As for May, she took the gamble of staging a second referendum. we know the result, the nation does not want a hard brexit. She is still PM, so she has won her gamble. Her job however is all the harder, because now she has to aim for a soft Brexit having just denied it is desireable. Still, she has increasing exprience of U turns and parliament never wanted a hard Brexit anyway.

So now the question is, can she persuade the nation that no Brexit is a better alternative than soft Brexit. Many do seem to believe this, the problem for her being that these include the people who still want a hard Brexit. So she still has to convince them that we must remain.

 

[southeastone]

So she still has to convince them that we must remain.

What are corbyn and mcdonnell saying to convince the uk to stay? apparently they are both committed to leaving. did you watch the peston interview with mcdonnell?

 

[dandelion]

What a difference a day makes.

Yesterday the news was all about how badly the conservatives have done. Creeping back into office with the support of the DUP. Or maybe, maybe not, talks continue.

But today the news has a story of conservative MPs cheering May. yes, cheering. And visibly pleased. How did that reverseal happen? Apart from keeping their jobs, of course.

It seems they like what she has done after all. Which raises the question of whether she held the election to test if the nation wants hard brexit simply as her own idea, or whether it was an agreement of the whole party. The latter now seems a lot more likely. They wanted hard brexit tested to destruction.

And now it seems to have been destroyed. All sorts of people are saying that hard Brexit cannot happn and we must look again at soft brexit.

The DUP will insist. The scottish tories will insist. The opposition will insist. May will just have no choice but to abandon hard Brexit. Which seems to be precisely what the tories wanted all along.

Now, how will they convince everyone that soft Brexit is also bad for the nation, and we will be better off as members?

 

[Drifterwood]

What are corbyn and mcdonnell saying to convince the uk to stay? apparently they are both committed to leaving. did you watch the peston interview with mcdonnell?

I can't sit in the same room as Peston's ego, but JC and McD don't have to,do,anything. Brexit is a Tory mess. They can see a positive outcome for wages if they have to go through with it, otherwise the process is toxic, political poison for anyone involved.

 

[dandelion]

John Major on the radio attacking the dup deal saying may should instead run a minority government. That there has to be a better compromise with those who voted remain and needs to be a wide consultation over what sort of brexit we should have. In short that may has totally messed up.

Also suggested that many who voted leave did not vote for the hard brexit option, indeed that some were purely protesting against Westminster and never really wanted leave at all.

 

[rbkwp]

Brexit negotiations: Uncertainty over what UK wants

Politicians from both major parties in Britain are urging a re-think of how the UK approaches its negotiations to leave the EU.

The uncertainty following an election on June 8 has re-ignited debate over whether Britain should seek a clean break from Europe, or look at maintaining close economic ties - known as “soft Brexit”.

 

[dandelion]

Article from the economist, which says that local conservative organisations were forbidden to deviate from the national line that this was an election all about Brexit. They were forbidden to say anything which they thought might help them locally. http://www.economist.com/blogs/speakerscorner/2017/06/how-tories-lost

The conservatives deliberately set out to make this election a referendum on hard or soft brexit, and they were perfectly happy to lose it. They cheered May for conducting the campaign exactly as they wanted it done.

The conservatives want to stop brexit. Now they have got the DUP involved when they did not need to, to give them more excuses for not carrying out Brexit. they had immense success in their first coalition in blaming the libs for everything they could.

Wonder if the DUP will do as well from this as the libs did?

 

[Jason]

Wonder if the DUP will do as well from this as the libs did?

The position is fundamentally different.

The DUP is a political party that has in effect come out of the Free Presbyterian Church. The more moderate UUP tried to work with the Conservative Party but the effect was simply to shift votes to the DUP.

The Northern Ireland result is:
10 x DUP
7 x Sinn Fein (abstentionist)
1 x independent.

There has been no discussion that I can see about how the independent will act. She is a former UUP party member who opposed her party's collaboration with the Conservatives and has managed to be elected as the UK's only independent. My logic is that her opposition to IRA terrorists makes it unthinkable that she will support Corbyn. I think she will in fact support the Conservatives, though perhaps issue by issue.

The DUP have been seeking to stress their broader appeal. For example they have moved out of the Presbyterian arena to become a more broadly Protestant group (for example their leader is actually an Anglican, a member of the Church of Ireland). Now they want to go further; they want to present themselves as the party that is supporting the Union, and they want support from the new group of Roman Catholic Unionists. The media attention they are now getting has the potential to enable them to do just this. If they can say that they have got a good deal for NI (for everyone in NI) and that this is a benefit of the Union then I think they have helped themselves a lot.

If this election has shown anything it is that none of us can predict elections. However DUP do hope to become the dominant NI party. A possible development is that Republic of Ireland party Fianna Fail is considereing standing in Northern Ireland elections. This would take votes from Sinn Fein by providing a moderate alternative to Sinn Fein.

An interesting concept is lower CT in Northern Ireland, as a response to the low CT in the Republic of Ireland. This may well be a DUP demand and may well be something that the Conservatives can happily give. The idea is that a reduced CT level would boost business and may actually increase the CT tax take. A trial in NI would be very interesting. If it works in NI it could be rolled out everywhere.

 

[dandelion]

The position is fundamentally different.

ye what? I said, 'wonder if the DUp will do as well as the liberals. The libs have sunk into electoral gloom after a deal with the cons. UKIp has sunk into electoral gloom after a deal with cons. DUP seeem to be next.

 

[Jason]

ye what? I said, 'wonder if the DUp will do as well as the liberals. The libs have sunk into electoral gloom after a deal with the cons. UKIp has sunk into electoral gloom after a deal with cons. DUP seeem to be next.

I think DUP will do well from an agreement. It is quite possible that the Assembly elections will have to be re-run, and the DUP's agreement will be a new factor which has the potential to shift the votes to them. The agreement will also give them a lot of media attention as a UK party (not just a NI party) and I think they will find this helps them get support from the whole of the newly-emerging Unionist community, which now includes many Roman Catholics.

 

[dandelion]

I think DUP will do well from an agreement. It is quite possible that the Assembly elections will have to be re-run, and the DUP's agreement will be a new factor which has the potential to shift the votes to them.

Lets see what is in the queens speech, might indicate what they have signed up to.

Someone just told me that a german friend had asked what on earth was going on in Britain. The germans are totally bewildered at what we are doing.

The answer seems to be, there is a revolt amongst voters against Brexit. They dont want it.

How DUP will therefore fare by allying itself to a party which stood on hard Brexit is rather questionable. I get the impresion that no one at all in Ireland wants hard Brexit.

In their manifefesto, I see they want to keep the common travel area, both north to south Ireland and N ireland to England. Thy want a 'frictionaless' border with s. ireland, which presumably implies with the EU. They want a 'comprehensive free trade and customs agreement', which sound like they want to belong to the customs union and common market. They want to be a gateway between the Uk and Ireland, again that sounds like with the EU. A 'proportionate regulatory regime, whatever that means, perhaps making sure the Uk continues to follow EU regulations so as not to impair market access. Continued CAP, but with them having more say in how the money is spent (ie devoluion of CAP to Ireland, which would be possible under current arrangements). Continued immigration. keeping EU subsidies to N. ireland.

About the only thing they want to change is the jurisdiction of the EU court. So if they just make one compromise about that, then sounds like they want to remain.

 

[southeastone]

About the only thing they want to change is the jurisdiction of the EU court. So if they just make one compromise about that, then sounds like they want to remain.

Sometimes old links have a purpose and a relevance, here the Belfast telegraph sets out the DUP stance for the referendum and interestingly the public poll they ran showed 57% of the voters wanted out despite a balanced article from the paper.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/n...rexit-in-leaveremain-referendum-34470806.html

 

[chrisrobin]

As the EU sets out its stall of mental warfare by trying to undermine the UK negotiators with a list of fears and possible its worth looking at what else is going on in the Europe.
In east Germany historians are looking through all the Stassi files again - could it be they are trying to erase any family connections from the records before the next elections. German manufacturers are slowly buying up assets (these are the same get rich merchants who did very well during the war, not just in military equipment but also chemicals - remember the so called testing regime carried with chemical weapons and immunisation - who shipped their profits into Swiss banks till after the war) on the Eastern block countries in order to boost the German supremacy across the EU.
The evil negotiator making snide suggestions, various other worms in the EU making spurious claims while at the same time saying the negotiations will be out in the open and all above board (except for the devious dealings below stairs.
Meanwhile the UK team is fettered by not being fully party to the opening gambit from the EU.
Many in the UK claim its all going tits up, going to be hard or soft when without a doubt they only have the products of their own fertile imaginations.
The current team will do its best for the country.
While other half wit politicians whinge on about this and that they are only weakening the position, but then the likes of Corbyn never ever wanted to leave the EU anyway, he's prefer to suck up to terrorists and his government squeezes and take the country into closer links with Russia while getting rid of the "bomb" - oh how Putin must be chuckling into his vodka!

 

[Jason]

I know none of us will ever believe polls again, but this one shows 70% in favour of enacting Brexit. Taking out the "don't knows" it is 77%.

I think the Brexit project sails on.

 

[SamSpain]

All of this nonsense, indecision and farcical political machinations could have been prevented by not having a referendum in the first place, just to appease right wing Tories and elements of the Press. It was a huge mistake for David Cameron to agree to it. But you reap what you sow.

 

[Jason]

All of this nonsense, indecision and farcical political machinations could have been prevented by not having a referendum in the first place, just to appease right wing Tories and elements of the Press. It was a huge mistake for David Cameron to agree to it. But you reap what you sow.

We are where we are. We have had the referendum.

Remain was backed by Conservative, Labour, LibDem, SNP, PC, Green, as well as by big business, the City, the Universities, the Trades Unions. Perhaps the referendum demonstrated that a referendum was needed. The politicians of all the main parties were following policies that the people of the UK weren't happy about. 52% were so unhappy they defied everyone to vote leave.

 

[SamSpain]

If we were governed all the time by referendums we would doubtless still have public executions. Fortunately they are very rare, for good reason.

 

[chrisrobin]

what you all seem to forget is that everyone is entitled to have a vote, to use it or to loose it.
The result therefor is a majority of those who vote win - election/referendum
Those who don't vote cant complain as they didn't use their prerogative
As always, the biggest vote carries the day.
So to use the percentage of voters who did or don't vote as an excuse for or against an idea is crap.

 

[SamSpain]

Some countries require a certain percentage of a vote to be achieved to carry a referendum. This is a much better way of doing it IMO. A result which is almost 50 / 50 is hardly conclusive

 

[dandelion]

I know none of us will ever believe polls again, but this one shows 70% in favour of enacting Brexit. Taking out the "don't knows" it is 77%..

That poll show 45% of the population think it wrong to leave the EU and 44% think it right to leave.

The question you refer to in effect asks whether the will of the majority should be respected, and people think that it should. However, the answer above says that the will of the people is to remain. While 45/44 is not much of a majority for remain, it is rather more so than the 52/48 result of the referendum. The general election we just has showed the idea that there is big support in the UK for Brexit was roundly defeated. The conservatives called for the Brexiteers to support them. The final result was pretyy much in line with the polling, although labour plus the other anti- leave parties got more votes than the tories.

The conservatives know they are chasing the wrong policy. I think that conservative leave and remain supporters need to go out and socialise together more, because they have some real differences of opinion. Of the remainers in that survey, around 45% think that Brexit will result in: more expensive goods/less investment in Uk/ UK exports will be harder. Of leave supporters 45% think: there will be no negative effects from Brexit.

Thse are the highest scores amongst any respondents for choices from a list of possible effects of Brexit. The conservatives seems to be split more strongly than any other party between their leave and remain supporters, leave thinking it will be nothing but good, remain thinking it will be awful.

Thus I suggest the two sides should talk to each other and decided who they think is right. Because one of them must be wrong. So when the 1/3 of the conservtives party who believe that Brexit will have no negative outcomes, are faced with mounting evidence they are wrong, will they change their minds to remain? "its the economy, stupid": in the end people vote for their economic interest. In the referendum they 90% voted for what they believed would be the best economic outcome.

Thats a big block of tories set to defect to a remain party. Presumably one reason why the conservatives held an election now. They hoped to bank the support of the nation for brexit while it still exists. Only they found that it has already disappeared. Inflation coming to a home near you.