Brexit

[dandelion]

Nothing to do with the fact it's been hanging on a thread for some years,...

Nonetheless Brexit finished it off. You seem to be saying that economic mismanagement by the tories overall since 2010 is what brought it down, and that is probably correct.

I notice you mentioned a pension fund problem again. Many companies have insolvent pension funds and this is mainly because of policy to abolish them. Underfunding the pensions has been an easy target to extract money without workers noticing quickly and is endemic in british industry. It has been part of the transfer of money away from workers and to bosses instead, which dates from around Thatcher. It was a newsworthy scandal in those days that companies rather then contributing to their pensions plans were claiming they had surpluses and taking money out. The value of a pension plan goes down as well as up, and with the investment markets changing it became clear they should never have been allowed to do this. Investment outlook now is utterly different to Thatcher's time, and very much worse.

Please we know you think brexit is the devil incarnate and that it will cause the end of the world

I think people are very naive what is happening out there. The great game which imperial powers played with soldiers 100 years ago is now played with computers, spies, political leverage, money. Russia has been proven to have intervened to get Trump elected, tried to assit Le Pen in France, and I am sure they intervened to try to asisst Leave. Because obviously they would, to harm the UK and EU.

Yesterday May made a speech which talked about the housing problem and the great need to do something about it. I am sceptical anything at all will be done by the tories, but what May said she would do is provide 2 bn towards housebuilding, which the news suggested might be around 5 thousand houses for three years, and a conservative spokesman in the same converstaion suggested about 8000. peanuts. 80,000 would be better, but 800,000 for three years more like the numbers needed. At the same time May announce 10 bn to go to the scheme for helping buyers by subsidising their mortgages and allowing them to borrow more than they othewise could. This scheme produces not one single extra house and helps bid up the price of houses (because basically it means people will be paying more than they could othewise have afforded). The tories are putting their money not in housebuilding to cut the shortage, but in deliberately making homes more expensive!

And they think somehow this will make them popular? To people who own banks making the loans, yes.

 

[southeastone]

Nonetheless Brexit finished it off. You seem to be saying that economic mismanagement by the tories overall since 2010 is what brought it down, and that is probably correct.

No I did not say that and don't see how even in dandieworld you read that out of my post, it was a private company who sunk under eu red tape and trying to fit a business model that didn't work, it was privately owned how can government mismanagement be blamed, you really make yourself look ignorant on basic business issues.

 

[dandelion]

, it was a private company who sunk under eu red tape and trying to fit a business model that didn't work,

Curiously Uk airlines are currently contemplating moving their bases to the EU so as to keep EU red tape and be able to keep flying to the EU after Brexit.

 

[southeastone]

Curiously Uk airlines are currently contemplating moving their bases to the EU so as to keep EU red tape and be able to keep flying to the EU after Brexit.

The latter may be true but not the former

 

[dandelion]

And meanwhile the government is about to stab itself in the foot once again with the rollout of universal credit, whichis not fit for task. Its a system designed to make claiming benefits harder, at exactly the time the public has had enough of benefit cuts.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/jess-phillips/universal-credit_b_18171608.html?utm_hp_ref=uk&-ukThe Waugh Zone 051017

The latter may be true but not the former

You have to obey EU red tape to trade with the EU. Thats the fact. That is what Brexorcists refuse to accept and it is why Brexit is unworkable. The alternative to following EU rules is not to trade with the EU at all. That is not possible for the UK. EU membership is the best option for the UK because while we will always have to obey the rules, as a member we also get to make them .

 

[dandelion]

Bank of England says the banking industry must hve a deal ensuring that current trading arrangements will continue as now before christmas. Otherwise banks will be forced to go ahead with setting up EU subsidiaries because of the regulatory timescales involved. Meanwhile the B of E is planning new rules which will be applied to EU banks operating in the UK, requiring them to set up local subsidiaries too.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-br...sition-deal-needed-by-christmas-idUKKBN1C92MR

 

[dandelion]

Ministry of defence says it is making cuts to the navy, bcause Brexit mens it can no longer afford its huge commitments to overseas purchase of equipment. A real, tangible effect of Brexit is a reduction in UK military strike power overseas.

 

[southeastone]

Ministry of defence says it is making cuts to the navy, bcause Brexit mens it can no longer afford its huge commitments to overseas purchase of equipment. A real, tangible effect of Brexit is a reduction in UK military strike power overseas.

Maybe as we won't have to give subsidised protection to the eu via nato we won't need to spend so much

 

[Jason]

Maybe as we won't have to give subsidised protection to the eu via nato we won't need to spend so much

I didn't agree with Trump BUT...

Trump said the nations of continental Europe should pay for their protection. I think we have to look at the disproportionate contribution of a few. USA is the big contributor, but also UK, France, Greece and a couple in Eastern Europe. Maybe UK should require EU to pay a contribution. Bluntly, why are we making this free gift to nations that seem intent on giving a punishment beating in the Brexit negotiations?

 

[dandelion]

We are scrapping landing craft. The ability to land an armed force on foreign beaches. Nothing to do with forces likely needed to defend europe, more the stuff we needed to re-take the Falklands, or mount an invasion of a third party.

This same decision was made by the conservatives just before the Falklands, though had not been implemented, otherwise we could not have taken the islands. Its a recognition that the Uk no longer has any use for applying force offensively abroad.

 

[dandelion]

Government receives legal advise that Brexit can be halted. https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/07/theresa-may-secret-advice-brexit-eu

That seems to be May's plan.

 

[dandelion]

Seven objections to the UKs new proposed membership of the WTO and we havnt even made a formal proposal yet. https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-b...lan-to-be-sent-to-wto-next-week-idUKKBN1CA2AK

Reverting to WTO terms might not be possible either

 

[chrisrobin]

At last our politicians have taken heed, looked at history.
Suddenly they see the need for a plan B
(Big Dave didn't even contemplate it nor did his silly chancellor)
They have looked at how the EU operates
They looked at they way the EU ground down Greece refusing to help, refusing to negotiate untill Greece, at the 11th hour capitulated and got a very bad deal from which they are just starting to recover while the rest of the EU looks down on them as poor relatives.i
Well hopefully the EU will find there is room for negotiation, that it isn't all played by their rules (27 - 1) and that maybe talking only money isn't the way to go, for if we do walk away the consequences for Europe will be as bad for them as they will be for us.
This little fact might just about be beginning to trickle through to the smaller countries who will suddenly find that they don't get the dame large handouts any more.
And the Catalonian affair might help the focus - Tusk stuck his nose in which didn't help!
So good stroke, make them, the EU, Barnier, Juncker (only talks in the mornings) and Donald Tusk - he us still, trying to become famous in someone's lunchtime!
In a changing world it has to be decided that if we don't respect each other enough top come to a good deal for both sides then no deal is better - and we keep the divorce money!

 

[dandelion]

Chrisrobin, if the Uk leaves the EU, the bad effects long term for the EU will be negligible. There might be short term loss of trade, but this is likely to be quickly picked up by alternatives inside the EU. The EU does much more trade with itself than with the UK. But long term, Uk industries which find themselves trapped outside will move to be back inside. Thats the thing, industry has no national loyalty any more. The EU enforces loyalty to it by the various barriers it has to outsiders. And preserving those barriers so as to preserve its own internal economy is the most important aspect of its policy.

The tories know all this. Thats why Hamond isnt going to waste money on all the new facilities needed to operate new borders. Because he knows that if matters get to the stage we need them, his party will no longer be in government because of the economic crisis which ensues. Its unthinkable to leave the EU, so no point planning for it.

Can help wondering whether Cameron had already reached that conclusion, which is why there was never any point spending money on figuring out the consequences in detail.

Heres a link to the FTSE share index since 1960. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/9196093/Graphic-50-years-of-the-FTSE-All-Share-index.html

Should be familiar to posters here. What is noticeable is that share prices stalled in 2000 and have not gone up since. From 1975 to 2000 they rose more or less steadily. From 1960 to 75 they were static.

60 to 75 and before the Uk was hugely repaying national debt, while also expanding the welfare state and the wealth of ordinary people. This process crashed when the oil price shock upset the world economy. By 1980 it was back on track, but now that wealth was diverted increasingly to the rich instead of ordinary people. Then we got the period of share price inflation. The money simply went into pushing up the prices of securities, instead of investments which would create wealth for everyone. It was a national disaster.

So then what happens? A bubble always bursts. Come 2000, the stock market stuttered to a halt. By 2007, the housing market was also in danger of stuttering to a halt. The bank of England was warning that borrowing to fund it had bcome nearly unsustainable.

We stand on the precipice edge where leaving the Eu would shock the Uk economy enough to bring about the crash which the labour government and BofE just managed to prevent in 2007.

 

[chrisrobin]

Chrisrobin, if the Uk leaves the EU, the bad effects long term for the EU will be negligible. There might be short term loss of trade, but this is likely to be quickly picked up by alternatives inside the EU. The EU does much more trade with itself than with the UK. But long term, Uk industries which find themselves trapped outside will move to be back inside. Thats the thing, industry has no national loyalty any more. The EU enforces loyalty to it by the various barriers it has to outsiders. And preserving those barriers so as to preserve its own internal economy is the most important aspect of its policy.

The tories know all this. Thats why Hamond isnt going to waste money on all the new facilities needed to operate new borders. Because he knows that if matters get to the stage we need them, his party will no longer be in government because of the economic crisis which ensues. Its unthinkable to leave the EU, so no point planning for it.

Can help wondering whether Cameron had already reached that conclusion, which is why there was never any point spending money on figuring out the consequences in detail.

Heres a link to the FTSE share index since 1960. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/9196093/Graphic-50-years-of-the-FTSE-All-Share-index.html

Should be familiar to posters here. What is noticeable is that share prices stalled in 2000 and have not gone up since. From 1975 to 2000 they rose more or less steadily. From 1960 to 75 they were static.

60 to 75 and before the Uk was hugely repaying national debt, while also expanding the welfare state and the wealth of ordinary people. This process crashed when the oil price shock upset the world economy. By 1980 it was back on track, but now that wealth was diverted increasingly to the rich instead of ordinary people. Then we got the period of share price inflation. The money simply went into pushing up the prices of securities, instead of investments which would create wealth for everyone. It was a national disaster.

So then what happens? A bubble always bursts. Come 2000, the stock market stuttered to a halt. By 2007, the housing market was also in danger of stuttering to a halt. The bank of England was warning that borrowing to fund it had bcome nearly unsustainable.

We stand on the precipice edge where leaving the Eu would shock the Uk economy enough to bring about the crash which the labour government and BofE just managed to prevent in 2007.

I am glad we don't all live in your little world of gloom and despair, have your capabilities for spinning the party line like a true Bolshevik, truth, fantasy and fiction nicely mixed.
Just one little thing about the EU, well, maybe two.
France exports, duty free, millions and million of gallons of wine to the UK via duty free plus what comes through taxed for shop sale.
Italy exports to the UK its nice ham from Palma, Prosciutto .
Just two luxury items, without going into what the EU exports, food, machinery to the UK, and if you think this will all be swallowed up within the UK please can I have a seat on your cloud in Cloud Cuckoo land.

 

[dandelion]

Chrisrobin, whether or not the brits stop buying French wine will not depend on the new tariffs situation. It will depend on whether our incomes are maintained or fall. GIven the diference in wine prices between the new wave supermarkets and the established ones, I see more problems for Tesco's profit margin. You need to remember just who has done OK since the 2008 bank fraud and who has not. The ones who have enjoyed rising incomes (the ones who are rich anyway) will still be buying luxury goods, and were the ones buying them in the first place.

 

[Drifterwood]

Chrisrobin, whether or not the brits stop buying French wine will not depend on the new tariffs situation. It will depend on whether our incomes are maintained or fall. GIven the diference in wine prices between the new wave supermarkets and the established ones, I see more problems for Tesco's profit margin. You need to remember just who has done OK since the 2008 bank fraud and who has not. The ones who have enjoyed rising incomes (the ones who are rich anyway) will still be buying luxury goods, and were the ones buying them in the first place.

I'm not sure this is true, Dands.

A group of wine experts regularly put together a list of the best wines for under £10.00. Lidl have been particularly good at bringing in good wines in this range, but given how duty, logistics and profit per shelf space works, these wines are going up proportionately more than the expensive stuff.

Brexit is hurting the moderate quaffer far more than the money no object buyer, and the incomes won't go up, so we will buy less wine or shittier stuff, or cheap vodka more likely.

 

[dandelion]

Drifter, there is an awful lot of snobbery in wines, and therfore vastly inflated prices. I look at the wine aisles and they just reek of big profit margins. My interpretation is that the French will still sell just as much wine for just as much money and UK consumers might pay as much, but the merchants will have to accept shrunken profit margins.

Back to the cut and thrust, it seems the government has been commissioning reports on the consequences of Brexit, and the news is bad. The government is refusing to publish these reports, arguing it would weaken their bargaining position. It wouldnt do that if the news was good!

So now they are facing a judicial review of why they have refused to publish. https://www.theguardian.com/politic...l-threat-over-secret-reports-on-brexit-impact

The government is in real danger of ending up boxed into a 'no deal' corner with mounting evidence that 'no deal' would be disastrous for everyone in the Uk. The UK must have a workable trading arrangement with the EU, and also with the world. Neother one of these would exist if we leave the EU. neither one of these even seems possible at some point in the future if we leave the EU.

 

[Jason]

The EU's negotiating strategy on everything is to wait until the last possible moment, then come up with the solution. I think the only possible trajectory for negotiation is all the deadlock and despair, then politicians will sit down at some overnight meeting and come up with a solution which (after lots of drama) everyone signs up to five minutes past the last possible time for a deal.

I think it is quite possible that a deal will be done. However I think no deal is looking increasingly likely. It's become a game of chicken. Yes of course no deal will hurt the UK economy - but it will also hurt every EU economy and the global economy. There should be an early solution, but the EU just isn't set up to function that way.

 

[dandelion]

The EU's negotiating position is to set it out well in advance of the referendum, and then stick to it. What is happening is the conservatives keep claiming the EU will change its mind, and then being shocked when it does not.

Analysis of Brexit by a dutch bank available at https://economics.rabobank.com/publications/2017/october/the-permanent-damage-of-brexit/

They reckon that a hard Brexit would cost the UK 18% of GDP growth by 2030, amounting to some £400 bn, or £11,500 each. (and yes, they do include savings from not paying membership fees in this total). They calculate 12.5% loss for FTA and 10% for 'soft Brexit' options. Other figures below for hard Brexit option scale similarly.

They reckon losses to netherlands around 4% and the EU as a whole around 2%.

They predict a 2 year long UK recession immediately after Brexit, with some 2.4% of GDP shrinkage. Soft Brexit option, 0.3% shrinkage.

They expect UK exports to drop by 30% by 2030 compared to remaining (with corresponding drop in imports of 27%). Significant inflation will push up wage costs to employers. Unemployemnt rise for the hard brexit option of 1.6% partly explained staying this low because productivity will be less than had we remained, meaning more work will be needed to maintain output. Real wages falling.

They dont say what they expect to happen after 2030, but indicate the UK will continue to be worse off to the tune of a slowly growing figure. They seem to be predicting that dutch or EU growth will be back on track by 2030, but UK's will continue to be lower than if we remain in the EU.

So for EU one off hit. For Uk endless pain.