Brexit

Adrian69702006

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Having listened carefully to all the arguments both for and against, I decided to vote for Brexit and I think on balance it was the right thing to do, although I actually thought the remain campaign would carry the day.
 

Adrian69702006

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Markets not looking bad today. FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 are up quite a lot. The pound has appreciated somewhat. We're not yet back to the levels of a week ago (before the markets decided that there was going to be a Remain vote and surged) but we're not that far off.

I don't like the S&P downgrade, but in fairness it was coming. The other two big agencies had already downgraded.

What we need asap is a clear prospect of election of a Conservative leader with a plan, probably Theresa May. The markets will love a plan.

Jason I would agree with you but for the Theresa May bit. Personally I'd like to see Boris become PM.
 

braalian

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I wonder if Britain would ever have a referendum on the monarchy. Or maybe this was it, in a way
Even if the UK broke up, I'd imagine the queen would stay queen over her subjects.

She'd be the queen of Wales, seprate from her being the queen of Scotland, seprate from her being the queen of England.... etc.

Isn't that kind of how it already works, when it comes to her subjects outside of the UK? Her status as the queen of Canada, for example, is a completely separate and independent monarchy from the UK.
 

Perados

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I wonder if Britain would ever have a referendum on the monarchy. Or maybe this was it, in a way
I dpubt thst they will have a referendum on the monarchy, but I can imagen that the labour party simply could eliminate the monarchy one day...
And the end of the UK could be the first step to theend of monarchy. Somehow the monarchy was one tool to keep the UK united. But without Scotland there is no longer a United Kingdom, but just a kindgom... You no longer need a queen to keep it united.


BTW Vodafone plans to move its headquarter from Britain to the EU.

Everyone who said there wont be any big economical problems get proved wrong.
At first the American Banks move from London.
Then China announced to reduce its investments.
Next was Easyjet who stops EVERY investments in Britain.
Now it's Vodafone who moves away from Britsin...

Who is next?
Asian Car producers? Mini and Bentley?
The USA always used Britain as their food in the door of the EU, how will they react?
 

Perados

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Even if the UK broke up, I'd imagine the queen would stay queen over her subjects.

She'd be the queen of Wales, seprate from her being the queen of Scotland, seprate from her being the queen of England.... etc.

Isn't that kind of how it already works, when it comes to her subjects outside of the UK? Her status as the queen of Canada, for example, is a completely separate and independent monarchy from the UK.
I would think if Scotland becomes independent, Scotland will become a republic.
IF England would end monarchy, I can't imagen that any other nation of the commonwealth would keep her as the head of state.
 
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798686

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I dpubt thst they will have a referendum on the monarchy, but I can imagen that the labour party simply could eliminate the monarchy one day...
And the end of the UK could be the first step to theend of monarchy. Somehow the monarchy was one tool to keep the UK united. But without Scotland there is no longer a United Kingdom, but just a kindgom... You no longer need a queen to keep it united.


BTW Vodafone plans to move its headquarter from Britain to the EU.

Everyone who said there wont be any big economical problems get proved wrong.
At first the American Banks move from London.
Then China announced to reduce its investments.
Next was Easyjet who stops EVERY investments in Britain.
Now it's Vodafone who moves away from Britsin...

Who is next?
Asian Car producers? Mini and Bentley?
The USA always used Britain as their food in the door of the EU, how will they react?
US have reacted by freezing investment in both Britain and Europe.

Lovely... undiplomatic Obama puts his foot in it yet again...
 
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ConanTheBarber

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US have reacted by freezing investment in both Britain and Europe.

Lovely... undiplomatic Obama puts his foot in it yet again...
Obama has merely warned that American investment could freeze, both in the UK and in Europe, as a consequence of Brexit.

If such a freeze occurs, it will be a result of individual companies, not the government, deciding that money can best be put elsewhere.
 

Klingsor

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Obama has merely warned that American investment could freeze, both in the UK and in Europe, as a consequence of Brexit.

If such a freeze occurs, it will be a result of individual companies, not the government, deciding that money can best be put elsewhere.

Those pesky little facts once again getting in the way.
 
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Obama has merely warned that American investment could freeze, both in the UK and in Europe, as a consequence of Brexit.

If such a freeze occurs, it will be a result of individual companies, not the government, deciding that money can best be put elsewhere.
Phew! Bloody BBC. Not like them to mis-report anything. ;)
 
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798686

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soon the queen herself will start posting

41GTv%2BEbRGL._SY355_.jpg
Funny you should say that... ;)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36689425
 
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798686

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Toyota and Airbus stated that it's VERY likely that they will Britain, now...

Most Banks will move from London (soon outside the EU) to Paris or Frankfurt (inside the EU)

45% of all British exports go to the EU - 8% of all EU "exports" go to Britain

Britain is fucked, if they don't get a GOOD deal SOON.
As long as it isn't clear what kind of status Britain will get, no larger company will dare to invest in Britain. This alone will slow down the GDP growth and will cost thousands of jobs
Apparently Boeing is going to invest here instead. :p

And Barclay's have said they're not going anywhere.

Other banks may move some staff to Europe, or other locations - but not their whole HQ. :)
 
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Europe’s many alliances, reimagined as a Metro system
European countries are bound together in many ways.​

metromap-1200.png
 

dandelion

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Someone elsewhere referred me to the Price waterhouse report on the likely impact of Brexit on the city. The poster suggested the report says the results would be mild and short term. Unfortunately, while their estimate for the losses is relatively mild, they also explain that they have not included the consequences of Banks simply moving out of London because of the negative impact of regulations, meaning London is no longer a good place to be based if you wish to trade with Europe.

https://www.thecityuk.com/assets/20...-the-EU-Implications-for-the-UK-FS-sector.pdf

"It is unlikely that the UK’s exit from the EU would result in the UK losing its status as the premier international financial centre in the short-term......However, the UK has an ‘outsized’ FS sector relative to the size of the economy, accounting for around 8% of total UK GVA. The difference, relative to what is ‘needed’ to support the domestic economy, is essentially an export sector owing to the UK’s status as a regional FS hub. As such, if banks, insurance companies, investment firms and market infrastructure service providers gradually relocate to other European financial hubs over the long-term, this could lead to a slow shift in the centre of gravity for FS activity from the UK to other European hubs, leading to an erosion of FS activity in the UK."

"These changes could also result in a gradual migration of support services that are deeply linked to the FS sector, including the legal, professional and business services sectors, in order to serve these clients in other emerging financial hubs. This loss of critical mass could have an impact on the UK’s dominance as an international financial centre. The loss of activity would also have knock-on impacts on the wider UK economy via supply chain linkages and employment"

Basically, there would be no reason for these financial instututions or their support services to remain in London, and we can expect them to slowly move abroad over the next few decades. I dare say those more elderly making decisions in parliament can hope to have retired by the time serious questions get asked about whose fault this was. The chancellor did mention we can look forward to a future where we are poorer if brexit takes place. 10-20% of the economy. bye.

I take it, this is the Gove and Leadsom future we are talking about, because they both anticipate walking away with nothing. however, there does not seem to be anyone in the world except for EU members who has the necessary relationship with the EU to stop this happening and satisfy the banking industry. I repeat therefore, I do not see how the UK could negotiate such a miraculous deal.
 
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dandelion

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Here's a good question ...

"...The question of who rules over you is an elemental, central component of having a democratic republic. Treating Brexit like it's just some complicated but very broad referendum is ignoring the nature of the question behind it. If British citizens shouldn't get to vote whether to be in the European Union because they don't "understand" all the issues involved, then why should they even get to vote on their legislators? Indeed, why have them vote at all?"

Who Rules Over You?’ Is Democracy’s Most Important Question
many years ago the franchise in britain was widened to allow all sorts of riff raff to vote, like plumbers or women. The ruling classes wondered how they would maintain control of the country. the answer in the end was simple. Feed the right information to the masses and they will vote the way you wish. In the case of this referendum the Leave lies were evident if you cared to consider them, the £350 mn a week we could spend ten different other ways, or the fact they had no intention whatever of limiting immigraton, in or out. But if you did not look too carefully and just listend to what they said, then believeing them you might reasonably vote out. and then you find the various people the very next day distancing themselves from their lies.

This is in no sense democracy. It started as a plan to deal with UKIP and prevent it becoming a serious political force. it has become an exercise in MPs avoiding blame for what happens next. Those same MPs who turned around the day after and said they misled the voters are now saying those voters have spoken, so we must exit the EU however awful the results. And it will be the will of the people to create this disaster, not them.

The mandate given was to reduce immigration, increase Uk sovereignty, spend more on national services, maintain the standard of living at equal or better than currently. This is what voters voted for. If all that is incompatible with brexit, then this was a vote against Brexit.
 
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dandelion

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Its seems professor Dougan, professor of EU law at liverpool university, has again been answering questions about the implications of Brexit.

He mentions what he considerd was the dishonesty of the leave campaign. In particular because most of Leave's arguments were legalistic and about questions of law, they can be straightforwardly addressed by examining the law. The EU commission does not create any EU law, they may suggest it but it is adopted by the elected parliament and council of ministers. 60% of EU law is not derived from the EU. The EU is not planning to create an army, and could not without UK permission and a referendum in the Uk. Turkey could not join the EU without UK permission. TTIP (latest trade scheme) currently being negotiated by countries all over the world could not be adopted without Uk permission and also consent of theEU parliament. In general the campaign wholly misrepresented the question of who has authority over the UK.

We do not pay the EU £350mn a week , so it could not possibly be spent on other things. after the campaign leave stated that leaving the EU would not lead to any reduction in immigration to the UK. There is no vienna convention protecting rights of Uk citizens living or working abroad currently. Whether they are allowed to continue will be entirely at the whim of their host countries, and similarly EU citizens here. Cameron's deal with the EU contained important binding legal agreements to create a veto for national parliaments and formally cement the separation of the single market and currency, so in future we would need only belong to the market.

The Uk government generated a report on the options should we leave the EU before the referendum. This is robust and legally sound, though may underplay the difficulties. leave sought to rubbish the reputations of anyone professional who commented on the referendum, including alleging Dougan was paid by the EU. he is not in any way.

The leave campaign illustrated the benefits of telling very big lies, because it is harder for people to catch you out. People do not believe that people would lie on such a huge scale, and so tend to belive at least some of it is true. It is to be expected that this will undermine further trust in politicians, and will lead to voters in the future coming to believe they were misled into voting Leave.

So what should we do about these lies? Leave have washed their hands of the decision, and said it is not their place to make a plan for the future but the government must get on with it. The referendum is not legally binding, so it is the government and parliaments decision what to do about the decision and the nature of the campaign. There is one view that having gone through the process, the result should be respected. But there is another that parliament has a duty to recognise that the leave campaign lied and voters are likely to change their vote, or to have already done so. Farage has already stated that he would not have accepted the result had it been the reverse.

The EU has stated it wants action soon. The Uk government does not have the resources to negotiate everything which would have to be negotiated quickly to smoothly implement leaving, and even if it did other parties would require years of negotiation which they will not hurry for the benefit of the UK. The Chinese have suggested iit would take 500 officials ten years. The loss of EU agreements will cause a loss of EU influence and power throughout the world.

Parliament is entitled to reject the referendum, but should set out clearly its reasons and validate this by a referendum or election.
 

Boobalaa

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If Parliment holds another (counter)referendum, what will that accomplish?
Probably, most likely future referendums that will be challenged by counter referendums.

Can there be a general election early to get rid of the liars? But there's no guarantee of that happening either..and besides..worst liars might get elected

More EU members will modify their strategy and tactics depending on the UK's decisions