Can Obama win popular vote but lose election?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by 1BiGG1, Nov 3, 2008.

  1. 1BiGG1

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    :biggrin1: The ObamaBot’s will weep …

    Can Obama win popular vote but lose election? - Yahoo! News

    WASHINGTON – It's a nightmare scenario for Democrats — their nominee Barack Obama winning the popular vote while Republican John McCain ekes out an Electoral College victory. Sure, McCain trails in every recent national poll. Sure, surveys show that Obama leads in the race to reach the requisite 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.

    But some last-minute state polls show the GOP nominee closing the gap in key states — Republican turf of Virginia, Florida and Ohio among them, and Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania, too.

    If the tightening polls are correct and undecided voters in those states break McCain's way — both big ifs — that could make for a repeat of the 2000 heartbreaker for Democrats that gave Republicans the White House.

    In 2000, Democrat Al Gore narrowly won the popular vote by 537,179 votes. But George W. Bush won the state-by-state electoral balloting that determines the presidency, 271 to 266. The outcome wasn't clear until a 36-day recount awarded Florida, then worth 25 electoral votes, to Bush by just a 537-vote margin.

    Before the 2000 election, political insiders had speculated just the opposite, that perhaps Bush would win the popular vote but lose the presidency to Gore.

    One day before the 2008 election, Obama sat atop every national poll.

    Enthusiastic by all measures, the Illinois senator's Democratic base was expected to run up the score in liberal bastions of party strongholds such as New York and California.

    But the race appeared to be naturally tightening in top battlegrounds that each candidate likely will need to help them reach the magic number in the Electoral College, electoral-rich Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia among them.

    To win, McCain must hold on to most states that went to Bush in 2004, or pick up one or more that went to Democrat John Kerry four years ago to make up for any losses. McCain's biggest target for a pickup is Pennsylvania, which offers 21 votes and where several public polls show Obama's lead shrinking from double digits to single digits.

    McCain faces a steep hurdle. Obama leads or is tied in a dozen or so Bush-won states, and has the advantage in most Kerry-won states.

    The Republican's campaign argues that as national surveys tighten, McCain's standing in key states also rises and that, combined with get-out-the-vote efforts, will lift McCain to victory in Bush states and, perhaps, others.

    "What we're in for is a slam-bang finish. ... He's been counted out before and won these kinds of states, and we're in the process of winning them right now," Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, said Sunday.

    Obama's team is awash in confidence.

    "We think we have a decisive edge right now" in states Bush won four years ago, said David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager.

    There's still another possibility, perhaps more improbable than the first — that McCain wins the popular vote while Obama clinches the White House.

    True, Democrats have been fired up all year.

    True, Republicans haven't been.

    True, Obama and McCain have been faring about even among independent voters.

    But there are signs that the GOP's conservative base has rallied in the final stretch and these voters usually turn out in droves, even if lukewarm on the candidate.

    Then there's the question of a tie in the Electoral College. In that case, members of the next House would select the winner.

    If Obama carries every state that Democrat John Kerry won in 2004, plus Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada, then he and McCain each would have 269 electoral votes. A tie also would result if McCain takes New Hampshire from the Democrats' column but loses Iowa, New Mexico and another state that Bush won, Colorado.

    In an election year that's defied conventional wisdom time and again, anything can happen.
     
  2. Gl3nn

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    I'm not even going to bother to read yet ANOTHER thread of you...

    If someone gets more votes than the other one and still loses...then something is very wrong with your system. Very wrong.
     
  3. lucky8

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    The electoral college should be abolished, population distribution is hardly an issue anymore
     
  4. D_Fiona_Farvel

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    Less than 24 hours left, predictions are redundant at this point.

    Why not make a meaningful thread. Like where to get the best election coverage? I wonder if Google and Twitter teaming up this election?

    Ita!
     
  5. Industrialsize

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    Al Gore won the popular vote........ask him
     
  6. Mr. Snakey

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    Its all about the electoral college. To keeps things simple. If Obama wins Ohio he will be the next president. It's all about Ohio. A great song by The pretenders by the way. Some election night music? I think so!
     
  7. Gl3nn

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    If there are more votes for one person...that means the major part of the US want him as president... not the other one!

    i don't even know who started this kind of voting system...but he must have been mad
     
  8. Notaguru2

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    I've got Obama losing Ohio, but picking up FL. Either way, Obama wins. McCain has to win all 6 battleground states to win; there is no other path to the Whitehouse for McCain.
     
  9. Flashy

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    no, it is not mad...it was done purposely, so that the larger states could not dominate the smaller states.

    A state like New Hampshire, with only a couple of electoral votes, has nowhere near the population (and with it, the attendant problems) that a state like California has.

    as such, it is only given a portion of the electoral votes that California has. It is regarded as not as valuable electorally as California, but is is STILL a state in this nation, and still has its say based on what its residents want or feel.

    people in another state have as much right to have their voice count equally with regards to states rights, that people in california do. People in smaller western and midwestern states do not have the same problems that California does, and as a result, the federal government does not have the same relevance to them...they have just as much right to be counted and heard...

    if you win California and New York, two states that have massive problems due to their immensity, populations, and metropolitan centers, you are given 86 combined electoral votes...nearly 1/3rd what it takes to get elected....you would have to win *17* states from Alaska and Hawaii, all the way to the borders of the midwest (minnesota and Iowa) without TExas to just get equal to that.

    I am from New York, and i have relatives in California...we may have the most population, but we should not have proportionally more electoral power to the point that it would take 17 states to equal that.


    People who live in states that have no state income taxes, who manage to have relatively balanced budgets, have lower crime rates and generally higher quality of life do not have the same concerns that people who live in Los Angeles or New York do.

    someone who lives happily in a rural or suburban environment in a state like New Hampshire, Vermont, Maine, MOntana, Wyoming etc, are americans too, and they should not be penalized for living in smaller states, as they are just as important.

    the United States is simply not just New York and California and the high electoral states like Texas and Florida.
     
  10. Flashy

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    and also, no, if there are more votes for one person, it does not mean that the "major part of the US want him as president"

    there are people who are registered that choose not to vote at all.
    there are people who are not registered to vote.
    there are people who are not old enough to vote.

    if Obama has 70 million people vote for him in this election, and McCain has 62 million people vote for him, the "major part" of the US does not, in fact, want him as president...a majority of VOTING americans want him as president...that is a very big difference, that occurs in all elections here.

    121 million people voted in the 2004 election....roughly 40% of the AMerican population.

    winning 55% of that amount of votes, means that roughly 22% of americans "want" him as president.

    that is not a "major part" of americans. that is a majority of voters.

    just saying.
     
  11. sargon20

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    Yep. McCane (yep that's spelled right) has to win it all.

    RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map
     
  12. Northland

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    In the end, Obama had so many votes that McCain's head began spinning more wildly than Linda Blair's had in The Exorcist, as he and his running mate Sarah Palin realized that there was no way they were going to be able to even manage the electoral college method of securing a win.


















    By the way has anyone seen BiGG since the results came in? Seems to be missing...
     
  13. dreamer20

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    Yes 1BiGG1. ObamaBots wept tears of joy...:biggrin1:
    :beerchug2::banana:

    YouTube - Jessie Jackson Cries Tears of Joy


    and celebrated the one year anniversary of Obama's election victory today!:biggrin1:

    :dance::party2::usa2::35:
     
  14. HazelGod

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    I miss Paris. :frown1:
     
  15. Bbucko

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    Me too...more every day.
     
  16. sargon20

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    We'll always have Paris
     
  17. dreamer20

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    His profile says he was here 1 day ago.

    Perhaps his name is Paris? (Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice):smile:
     
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