Can Russia really be blamed for the Flight MH17 tragedy?

[rbkwp]

The background story to MH17 may revolve around the Russian economy.

The media is now full of stories of just how dire the Russian economy is. Sanctions have exacerbated this problem, but the fundamental flaws have been visible for months and the Russian government will have been well aware of them. Specifically:


absolute rubbish
again Jason i only need to read the leading couple of your sentences and can see where your heading to, your mindset appears to be so distorted
you are akin to your Western style full of media propoganda
my understaung of what your saying is in a roundabout way you have stated the Russians downed MH17 because of there collapsing economy, throwing in oil/gas
that in no way supports your belief that the Russians downed MH17 if thats the implication
feel sure Western media would love to accuse the Russians of making MH370 dissapear also, when all likelihood its just as likely it was forced down to land on that 'secret' US military island in the last reported area
dont hear any accusations of the perfect West re that possibility huh!

this is where we needed the Aussie economist underguy to give his professional opinion, would have been more valuable than any suppositions that we come up with ..

 

[Perados]

Russian finance minister: russia will lose up to 140bln dollar, this year - 40bln cause of the western sanctions and 100bln cause the oil price has droped by 30%

 

[Jason]

Russian finance minister: russia will lose up to 140bln dollar, this year - 40bln cause of the western sanctions and 100bln cause the oil price has droped by 30%

Yes.

Sanctions started in March, were extended in April and again in June. It's the June sanctions that have had the biggest impact. Without any change in the sanctions regime Russia cold expect losses from sanctions of $60bn+ next year.

The losses from the falling oil price have been $100bn. Oil has been higher than its present price earlier this year. Even in oil remains at its present price then the loss will be greater next year. However the balance of probability is the oil prices will be lower still. I'm not clear how to calculate a loss. Are we looking at $150bn? $200bn? More?

Russia also has dodgy banks which may well need refinancing.

Calculation of Russia's reserves seems to depend more on faith than economics. The range is something like $200bn to $450bn. It is plausible that 2015 alone could exhaust all of Russia's assets. What is interesting right now is that it is the Russian government that is talking about its losses. Probably there is no alternative, but it is quite a departure from the policy of a few years ago. Russia CAN stay solvent, but it needs policy decisions which there is no sign of Putin taking. For example it needs an end to sanctions (ie Russia resolves the issues that are causing the sanctions), a deal with the West for future oil and gas creating a new asset, substantial austerity at home including specifically an enormous reduction in the defence budget. Russia is very close to needing a bail-out deal.

It's as if Putin is in denial. He seems to be set on taking on the West - Ukraine and multiple military threats. He could go on a military adventure (invade somewhere) but this might buy him time rather than providing a solution. I think he has already lost. It's just a case of how much harm he can do before he's kicked out.

And that's the issue - he has lost. There will be plenty of people in Russia who think he should be kicked out (he's just announced he will retire in 2025). The tidy solution would be some sort of coup at the top. Failing that I think the scene is set for a colour-revolution, some sort of Russian Euromaidan. That of course would be messy.

 

[Perados]

There will be no revolution in russia
in the past, the russians can suffer very very mutch, without even thinking of a revolution - even if putin has to cut spendings, not mutch will hapoen in the sociaty
Different to the soviet aera, the russians dont want to be more like the west. The are prout to be different (not liberal, not weak)
Putin has a massive support in russia. Three years ago some people were on the street, to protest against putin, mainly public employees. Since then he has increased their saleries massivly and they become one of putins biggest supporters

And i doubt putin will step down in 2025 - he has no option to leave without threaten his life. He will rule till he dies. Already in 2008 putin thought of quiting, but he noticed he cant.
Even if he would quit. The current situation in russia makes it unlikely that someone more liberal or pro west would become the next president...

But let suggest we will see a revolution in russia.
Russia is already not the most stable and secure nation. Now imagen we would see a situation like in egypt or even worse syria... 8000 nuclear weapons and no controll - in this case i would prefer putin

 

[Jason]

...in this case i would prefer putin

I agree, we need stability. But I don't think we have much choice in this matter.

I don't agree that a revolution couldn't happen in Russia. The support for Putin is a form of nationalism. If Putin and national pride come to be separated then Putin is toast.

Nor do I agree that a replacement within the Kremlin would necessarily be more of the same. I think there are people who have the will to see Russia develop.

 

[Freddie53]

But let suggest we will see a revolution in russia.
Russia is already not the most stable and secure nation. Now imagen we would see a situation like in egypt or even worse syria... 8000 nuclear weapons and no controll - in this case i would prefer putin

You bring forth a major point that most of us forget to consider. Those nuclear weapons.

As much as I am a proponent of helping people everywhere, I am not willing to throw the nuclear arsenal to a situation where it can become compromised in order to bring democracy and prosperity to Russia.

I agree with you. We must not do anything to totally upset the stability of the Russian government.

No matter how powerful the US or the EU may be, neither can win against an array of nuclear missiles falling on our homelands.

This reality has to be the foundation of all relations with Russia and Putin.

 

[Jason]

This reality has to be the foundation of all relations with Russia and Putin.

So what happens when we decide that the biggest threat is Putin using such a weapon?

He has sociopathic psychological problems. Doubtless there are specialists throughout the West trying to second guess him, but we have to bear in mind that the views they come up with may be terrifying. It is possible that the West may conclude he has to be removed.

 

[rbkwp]

from your RT propoganda specialist
a long time coming
...edit ha bit mean!, unless its regarding the MH17/MH370, and genuine Western propoganda you wish to espout .. ..edit!

its
a possible reason why MAS was targeted... said it before
skuldugery going on by the Superpower c..is, then the minnow Countrie pricks (incl Haloland and Australia, with Malaysia termed a 3rd World Country by Western standads

your ALL a Pack of Bastards, and dont seem to give a fuck re EXPOSING THE TRUTH re the deaths/dissapearance on both planes of the civilians ..

Malaysia excluded from MH17 probe – for 'not pointing fingers at Russia'?

http://rt.com/news/209759-mh17-investigation-malaysia-excluded/

 

[Jason]

It's another smoke and mirrors story.

The investigation is being overseen by Eurojust in two parts. There is a Technical Investigation (of which Malaysia is a part) and a Criminal Investigation (which Malaysia has refused to take part in). To be part of the Joint Investigations Team it is necessary to be part of both the Technical and Criminal investigation teams. In effect Malaysia has excluded herself.

Russia is arguing that taking part in the Criminal Investigation means agreeing that Russia is guilty. I can see nothing that supports this claim. The interesting story is why Malaysia is staying out of the Criminal Investigation. It's because Putin has come up with the idea of giving financial aid to Malaysia. It's a simple bribe. It seems Malaysia has decided to take the bribe.

 

[tripod]

The interesting story is why Malaysia is staying out of the Criminal Investigation. It's because Putin has come up with the idea of giving financial aid to Malaysia. It's a simple bribe. It seems Malaysia has decided to take the bribe.

Wanna provide a link to this new "Russian aid to Malaysia"?

 

[rbkwp]

funny tri
i was thinking the same thing ..


It's because Putin has come up with the idea of giving financial aid to Malaysia. It's a simple bribe. It seems Malaysia has decided to take the bribe.




LINK Please
or as THEY say, it never happened!

 

[tripod]

funny tri
i was thinking the same thing ..


It's because Putin has come up with the idea of giving financial aid to Malaysia. It's a simple bribe. It seems Malaysia has decided to take the bribe.




LINK Please
or as THEY say, it never happened!

Methinks we will be waiting until hell freezes over.

As usual, making bold anti-Russian assertions without any proof of their existence. Typical of the modus operandi of the Western media machine... talk shit and don't feel the need to prove anything.

 

[rbkwp]

R.I.P.

MALAYSIAN Airlines flight MH17 began its final journey yesterday as it was loaded by crane onto a convoy of semi-trailers to drive the 2600km to an air base hangar in the Netherlands.

Why authorities elected to make the long road trip drive in snow conditions across Ukraine, Poland and Germany to a hangar on the large military Gilze Rijen Airbase in the Brabant region of Holland near the Belgium border is a mystery.



No Cookies | dailytelegraph.com.au

 

[rbkwp]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDMYMbj8_4A

awaiting ..

The “sole objective” of the Dutch Safety Board investigation “is the prevention of similar accidents and incidents” not “to apportion blame or liability in respect of any party.” In other words, this is not a criminal investigation. (Preliminary report, Dutch Safety Board, September 2014)

On the other hand, that is, as we will see, the specific objective of the joint investigation team (JIT): to conduct a criminal investigation and “apportion blame”. It is a European entity conducting a criminal investigation under a European legal framework and which, unlike the Dutch Safety Board, does not have to abide by the rules of the ICAO. The JIT can include anyone or any state, but most importantly, and contrary to the DSB investigation, it is under no obligation to include Malaysia.

MH17: What is the Joint Investigation Team, What Is It for, Who’s Leading it and Why is Malaysia Excluded? | Global Research

 

[Perados]

Putin speaks to the nation: crimea and east ukraine is to russia equal to what is the temple mountain for the jews

 

[Jason]

Putin's speech is very worrying. Much of it is presented here: Russia's Putin compares Crimea to Temple Mount - fastFT: Market-moving news and views, 24 hours a day - FT.com

He appears to be threatening war with the West and is comparing the West - the EU and USA - with the Nazis. And yes he says the Crimea is to Russia what the Temple Mount is to Jews. It's the babbling of a madman, but a very dangerous madman.

 

[tripod]

Putin's speech is very worrying. Much of it is presented here: Russia's Putin compares Crimea to Temple Mount - fastFT: Market-moving news and views, 24 hours a day - FT.com

He appears to be threatening war with the West and is comparing the West - the EU and USA - with the Nazis. And yes he says the Crimea is to Russia what the Temple Mount is to Jews. It's the babbling of a madman, but a very dangerous madman.

Jeeze... it's called the Russian point of view, not the babbling of a madman.

Sebastopol is a big deal... you know that.

 

[Perados]

Putin: every people have the right for selfdetermination, this counts for crimea and east ukraine as well...
Gun battles erupt in Chechnya's capital after militants launch attack | World news | The Guardian

 

[Drifterwood]

Who could have predicted that an economically weakened Russia would have been threatened from subjected territories?

 

[Jason]

Russia's GDP puts it just below Spain. However if the recent rouble falls are used to calculate the wealth of Russia the answer comes out far lower. Probably Poland is economically stronger than Russia.

I think whether the Donbas and Crimea are part of Ukraine or Russia will soon be overtaken by events. We're very close to having economic collapse in Russia. Russia is increasingly likely to experience territorial collapse, a form of Balkanisation. We need to wake up to this. It is dangerous, particularly in the context of a nuclear power.