Can Russia really be blamed for the Flight MH17 tragedy?

[Calboner]

But we know the rebels have an intention of bringing at least some jets down. Just days after the downing of the Malaysia Airlines jet, rebels took credit for downing two Ukrainian fighter jets not far from the flight MH17 crash site.

They're still doing it even now.

Two Ukrainian military jets shot down over rebel-held area - The Washington Post

Edited to add: In this case, though, Kiev says that the missiles were fired from Russia.

 

[Jason]

I can't imagine why anyone would see benefit in shooting down a passenger airliner -- so my assumption is that it was unintentional.

This seems to be just about everyone's assumption. But I think there is a weakness in the argument. The argument does seems to be based almost entirely on the view that we cannot see who would benefit.

I wonder if the problem in most of the West is that we don't read Marx much. "there is only one means to shorten, simplify and concentrate the murderous death throes of the old society and the bloody birth pangs of the new, only one means – revolutionary terrorism". This is from an essay he wrote in Vienna at the time of the European year of revolutions (1848).

We in the west seem to be assuming that the event is a problem for Putin. Is it? There are some bonuses:
* He is testing the weakness of the European response. It has taken just a few days for a big argument to break out between UK and France. Germany has come out in favour of doing nothing. Maybe something will be agreed, but I suspect it will be ineffective.
* Putin could put forward the idea of going into the two Ukrainian rebel oblasts to establish order - to do what Ukraine has failed to do. The world has seen the extent of the problems.
* Putin could see the incident as a diversion. Ukraine's military is over-stretched and now has its eye fixed on the eastern oblasts. Right now there is unrest around Odessa. This area (plus Transnistra) is of economic and military interest to Russia.

I'm clutching at straws. But I'm not convinced it was an accident, and I therefore think we should look at possible benefits to someone.

 

[ConanTheBarber]

^^^^The quote function doesn't seem to work.

I do find what you're saying a bit far-fetched ... perhaps worthy to keep in the back of one's mind as bare possibilities which may prove to have some substance.

I can't imagine that Putin, in 2014, is much moved by something Marx wrote 166 years ago. Perhaps you think that such notions remain in the ether of former Communist countries. Perhaps they do, but I can't put much credence in that notion. I don't think Putin is that irrational.

But I'm quite prepared for anything to come out of the investigation.

 

[ConanTheBarber]

They're still doing it even now.

Two Ukrainian military jets shot down over rebel-held area - The Washington Post

Edited to add: In this case, though, Kiev says that the missiles were fired from Russia.

Interesting ... and perhaps a bit worrisome. I will have to follow this.

Edit to add: I'm not entirely sure this is a separate case from the one I mentioned, though the Washington Post piece you quote is rather different in details. Too busy right now to find the piece I had read (was it from Reuters?) and sort things out.

 

[Perados]

I also doubt that any rebell and not even putin have read marx...
It doesnt matter what he wrote - you could also argue with Robespierre (virtue and terror), it would fit just as less.

Putin isnt a marxist nor a leninist, if he is anything it would be a stalinist. - only a atrong state can lead and a strong state needs a strong leader.

Putin wants political power over the ukraine, thats why he supports the rebells. He isnt interested in isolation of russia, he wants to restor russia as a world power, a conterweight to the usa (he offered the eu more then once a cooperation, to become indepeendent from usa) - to shoot a civil airplane is contraproductive. He knows it and his generalls, who support the rebells, know it as well.
The shutdown was an accident, by people who didnt had the knowledge to operate with the military tools.





Jason, your thinking really is out of the cold war - america and britain are the good, france and germany are the naive and weak and everything east form poland ist barbaric and the whole world has to get educated by britain

 

[twoton]

Yes, because the U.S., U.K., France, Italy, Denmark, Holland, Belgium, Sweden, Finland, Ireland, Norway, Poland, Germany, Slovakia, Serbia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania, Hungary, Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Belarus, and The Ukraine have been regularly invading and occupying Russia for the past 100 years. And don't forget Lichtenstein.

I assume this is some sort of NATO humor?

Yeah, and the punchline comes when NATO kicks Ivan's ass back to the Urals.

 

[Jason]

^^^^The quote function doesn't seem to work.

I do find what you're saying a bit far-fetched ... perhaps worthy to keep in the back of one's mind as bare possibilities which may prove to have some substance.

I can't imagine that Putin, in 2014, is much moved by something Marx wrote 166 years ago. Perhaps you think that such notions remain in the ether of former Communist countries. Perhaps they do, but I can't put much credence in that notion. I don't think Putin is that irrational.

But I'm quite prepared for anything to come out of the investigation.

Of course it's far fetched. But I still don't think the idea of an accident stacks up.

Putin will have read Marx and will know USSR history. Putin's Marxism will be filtered through Stalin. On the use of terrorism a major source is Trotsky - he actually wrote "In Defence of Terrorism". I think Putin would support shooting down a passenger flight if he thought there was something to be gained.

 

[dandelion]

I said earlier, if Russia does not believe in intervention to change governments, how come they do not hand back power to the Romanovs?

I mention this again because this harping on about marxism is irrelevant. Romanovs were exercising rule by terror long before he was born. He just did some research and wrote a book about history.

 

[798686]

I'm confused. Is that how you're defining ad hominem?

I love your posts, Klings - but if anyone mentions ad hominem or straw men again, I shall slap them. :tongue:

Asinine is another pretentious one, before anyone decides to drop it in.

Yeah, and the punchline comes when NATO kicks Ivan's ass back to the Urals.

Is that you, Dubya? :biggrin:

 

[Klingsor]

I love your posts, Klings - but if anyone mentions ad hominem or straw men again, I shall slap them. :tongue:

You mean you'd attack the person, not their ideas? :wink:

 

[798686]

You mean you'd attack the person, not their ideas? :wink:

Ummm. :tongue:

I may do both. :biggrin1:

 

[ConanTheBarber]

Of course it's far fetched. But I still don't think the idea of an accident stacks up.

Putin will have read Marx and will know USSR history. Putin's Marxism will be filtered through Stalin. On the use of terrorism a major source is Trotsky - he actually wrote "In Defence of Terrorism". I think Putin would support shooting down a passenger flight if he thought there was something to be gained.

The cost is very high, if he is found out. The gain is utterly unpredictable. I think he would have to be a fool to weigh these against each other and decide to shoot that bird out of the sky.

I said earlier, if Russia does not believe in intervention to change governments, how come they do not hand back power to the Romanovs?

I mention this again because this harping on about marxism is irrelevant. Romanovs were exercising rule by terror long before he was born. He just did some research and wrote a book about history.

You're thinking small. Why stop with the Romanovs? Why not go back to the Rurik dynasty, or even earlier?

(Actually, harping about Marxism is not totally irrelevant. Putin, as you must know, has called the dissolution of the Soviet Union "the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century." He was nearly 40, with 16 years experience in the KGB, when everything Soviet went south.
We don't look at life directly. The powerful ideological filters of the Soviet environment would heavily condition his understanding of history. That said, I don't begin to think he would see anything to gain with the shooting down of a passenger jet, though stranger things have happened.)

 

[ConanTheBarber]

Ummm. :tongue:

I may do both. :biggrin1:

Promise?

 

[798686]

Promise?

:wink:

 

[Perados]

The cost is very high, if he is found out. The gain is utterly unpredictable. I think he would have to be a fool to weigh these against each other and decide to shoot that bird out of the sky.



You're thinking small. Why stop with the Romanovs? Why not go back to the Rurik dynasty, or even earlier?

(Actually, harping about Marxism is not totally irrelevant. Putin, as you must know, has called the dissolution of the Soviet Union "the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century." He was nearly 40, with 16 years experience in the KGB, when everything Soviet went south.
We don't look at life directly. The powerful ideological filters of the Soviet environment would heavily condition his understanding of history. That said, I don't begin to think he would see anything to gain with the shooting down of a passenger jet, though stranger things have happened.)

I really think you all misinterpretate putin.
He doesnt care for a system, no matter if its marxism, stalinism or capitalism - importent is, what promisse the biggest power to russia.
The importent word of your quote, conan, is GEOPOLITICAL. It express that he isnt interested in a failed idiology, but in failed influence.
Thats why not marx is importent, but, if anyone then, machiavelli.
He worked at the kgp and even his current power he gained by the kgd. The kgd is what influenced his thinking, not any philosoph...
In a german inteview he told a storry out of his youth - as a little child, he was always the leader of his gang, till puberty. At this time, it was no longer importent who had the strongest mind, to rule a group, but physical streangth. But putin was always the smallest and not very strong. To become the leader again, he desited to take Karate lessons... i think this story shows quite good what is imporzent to putin.

 

[ConanTheBarber]

I really think you all misinterpretate putin.
He doesnt care for a system, no matter if its marxism, stalinism or capitalism - importent is, what promisse the biggest power to russia.
The importent word of your quote, conan, is GEOPOLITICAL. It express that he isnt interested in a failed idiology, but in failed influence.
Thats why not marx is importent, but, if anyone then, machiavelli.
He worked at the kgp and even his current power he gained by the kgd. The kgd is what influenced his thinking, not any philosoph...
In a german inteview he told a storry out of his youth - as a little child, he was always the leader of his gang, till puberty. At this time, it was no longer importent who had the strongest mind, to rule a group, but physical streangth. But putin was always the smallest and not very strong. To become the leader again, he desited to take Karate lessons... i think this story shows quite good what is imporzent to putin.

I think you and I see Putin in largely the same light.
I don't think Putin IS all that much influenced by ideology ... but to the extent he is, it will be a Stalinist ideology.

What he fundamentally wants is on rolling demonstration of respect for Russia.
The Russian public seems to agree with him. In polls, his support reaches levels unimaginable in the West.
Early on in the Ukrainian imbroglio, he offered to join Western powers in a search for a peaceful solution. He was ignored, a slap in the face ... at least from his perspective ... that may have hardened his wish to show that the Russian voice counted and would be heard.

We always have to take egos into account, on the national level no less than the personal. We should be treating Russia with kid gloves much of the time, in recognition of the humiliations that recent history, perhaps justly but undeniably, has delivered to a much-reduced power in the world -- not from masochism or lack of fidelity to our own values, but because both sides would gain more of what they want.

 

[Perados]

I agree with your post

 

[ConanTheBarber]

I agree with your post

Quel miracle!!!:biggrin1:

 

[Perados]

The goverment of the ukraine has steped down... swoboda and udar have left the coalition - pro western parties want new elections

 

[tripod]

Early on in the Ukrainian imbroglio, he offered to join Western powers in a search for a peaceful solution. He was ignored, a slap in the face ... at least from his perspective ... that may have hardened his wish to show that the Russian voice counted and would be heard.

We always have to take egos into account, on the national level no less than the personal. We should be treating Russia with kid gloves much of the time, in recognition of the humiliations that recent history, perhaps justly but undeniably, has delivered to a much-reduced power in the world -- not from masochism or lack of fidelity to our own values, but because both sides would gain more of what they want.

Brilliant.

The goverment of the ukraine has steped down... swoboda and udar have left the coalition - pro western parties want new elections

The illegitimate Kiev government can't please the Nazis and the "punch" party while simultaneously failing to fund their military? Bwa Ha Ha Ha Ha!

What a bunch of rank amateurs... Victoria Nuland, the state department & the EU sure know how to pick winners.

Nice to know my tax dollars went to fomenting a violent coup, thrusting a coalition of Neo-Nazis & Nationalists together and electing a chocolate billionaire to lead them all. Lolz