Can someone give me the odds?

Discussion in 'Sex With a Large Penis' started by thickseven, Nov 3, 2011.

  1. thickseven

    thickseven New Member

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    So, I've started chatting with a girl and she said that she's had 5 guys before. I was wondering if one of our more mathematically minded members could tell me what the chances are that one of the dudes she slept with was bigger than me (7.25-5x6.25). Purely for shits-n-giggles.
     
  2. B_joshdaniels1234567

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    extremely unlikely
     
  3. zederific

    zederific Member

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    Using data from here (which seems reasonable), I get that you're in the 96th percentile for length and 99% for girth. Using the length as the indicator since it's lower, the chances that one of her five bedmates was larger than you is (1 - 0.96^5) = about 18.5%.

    So the odds are roughly 4 to 5 in your favor.

    There ought to be a direct calculator for this sort of thing.
     
  4. hardbanana

    hardbanana New Member

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    I get (from the same data as zederific) 96.5th percentile for length 99.4th percentile for girth therefor as a whole (96.5+99.4)/2 = 97.95th percentile for size.
    (1 - 0.9795^5) = 88.3rd percentile
    Which means there's a 11.7% chance or 1 in 10-ish
     
  5. D_75r76ot

    D_75r76ot New Member

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    (4%+1%)/2 is a chance that random guy is bigger than u. thats 2.5%
    chance that none is bigger is 0.975^5 = 0.881095693
    if u want to know chances of one guy being bigger than u then u do this
    (0.025*0.975^4) * 5 = 0.112960986
    two guys being bigger is (0.025^2 * 0.975^3) * 5 = 0.00289643555
    etc.
    ops, i just saw a guy above me did the same thing :)
     
  6. dirkjesje

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    Statistically this is wrong.
    Or you calculate the chances lenghtwise, or girthwise, or on volume.
    You can not make a medium of two parameters from the percentiles.
    Even that the two parameters have a nice correlation it gives you a false percentile.
    ( For example body height and weight do have a correlation, but you calculate this separately )

    Volume wise a penis of 7.25 X 6.25 is very big.
    I would say to encounter at random such a volume 0.13%, so the chances that she had at least 1 before bigger = 0.65% ( 1on153)
     
    #6 dirkjesje, Nov 3, 2011
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2011
  7. D_75r76ot

    D_75r76ot New Member

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    the fact is that the chance of random guy being bigger is between 1-0.965 = 3.5% and 1 - 0.994 = 0.6%. so if we dont have volume distribution we cannot do anything other then use the method me and Hardbanana (haha) used.
     
  8. D_75r76ot

    D_75r76ot New Member

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    but i agree dirkjesje, chances u calculated are more likely to be true then the ones I did, since girth influences volume at a higher degree then length does.
     
  9. matelalique

    matelalique Active Member

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    The math above is essentially correct and close to the answer you're looking for, if you assume that she samples randomly from all guys (alternately put that she has sex with the 100th guy to walk out of the supermarket that day). If she only goes for guys with bigger bulges, or a particular racial type, you would need to use statistics appropriate for that sub-population.
     
  10. ShannonH

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    At 6.25" girth you're thick enough that studies can't really predict with accuracy what percentage you're in (e.g. if there's 1 guy in every 1000 that thick, some studies might have no guys that big, another _might_ have 2, so study 1 would show 0% of men that big, study 2 would show 0.2% that big; you're far enough from the median to be considered an outlier.)

    The chances that one of them was thicker than you is minuscule.

    One thing to keep in mind is that someone being technically bigger doesn't mean they're noticeably bigger. If they're an extra 1/4" longer than you are, it's not like anyone would notice that difference. Heck, you could have less fat-pad, a shorter dick-head, or a down-curve so you might even look longer than them.

    Going by the lifestyle's study, since you're between 7.25 and 7.5" long (like me -- hey brother! ) I'd look at only guys 7 3/4" long and above as being noticeably longer. Maybe 1.5% of the population is that long (see the measured porn stars thread -- that's about the length that most porn actors who do big-dick porn actually are).
    Using my mathemagic, the odds of at least one person out of five being 7 3/4" or longer is 7.3%. Low but still within the realm of possibility.

    Personally I prefer a woman with a lot of experience. If she hasn't had a lot of guys then you're more likely to be her biggest, but so what? If you really need the ego boost, I think it's better to be with a woman who has been with a lot of guys, since she'd know how rare you actually are.
     
  11. thickseven

    thickseven New Member

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    A good point Shannon sir, I'm hoping if it doesn't turn into a long-term thing that I at least get to fuck her (and impress her; with my cock or otherwise), she's absolutely gorgeous (to me at least).
     
    #11 thickseven, Nov 3, 2011
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2011
  12. jasonstarkiller

    jasonstarkiller New Member

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    About penis size
    Here are the facts about penis size: From a survey conducted by The-penis.com in 2003 on over 1500 men, the results are as follows:
    By average it means the mid point of the male size range. So half of all men have an erect penis shorter than 5.9 inches, and half have one over 5.9 inches. The full details make interesting reading. For example, 12.5% of men are less than 5 inches when erect, and about 2% are less than four inches when erect - that's 2 men in every 100, or about 2 million men in the US alone. And most of these men are married and many have kids. Conclusions? A small penis is not important - unless it's important to you. Penis size is a male issue, not a female one.
    (In case you're wondering, only 7.5% of men are larger than 7 inches when erect, and only about 1 in a hundred is over 8 inches when erect.).So anything bigger than 8 inches become rare.
     
  13. ShannonH

    Gold Member

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    Don't go by an internet survey - they're always way higher. There are two main factors that influence the results: self-measurement, and self-selection (people choose to participate or not.) Both raise the average up significantly. When measured by medical staff across as broad a cross-section as possible (eg the Ponchietti study of Italian conscripts), it's usually 5.1" to 5.5". Internet surveys get a 3rd variable increasing the size: outright liars. If you read this board long enough, there are a tonne of trolls out there who just love to feed bunk results and say things like "I'm 10" long anyone under 7" is just TINY" because they want to rile people up.

    Self-selection means people with smaller dicks are way less likely to submit their size (though logically it should be the opposite -- if you want to feel like you have a bigger dick, you'd prefer the survey to have a smaller average). Self-measurement involves a lot of deception - of others or just self-deception. Even on this board, where so many people should know the right way to measure, people use ridiculous methods like going from the side, putting a ruler on a huge angle, or putting the ruler below their penis (makes it look bigger from both perspective, and starting from almost their butt.)

    I like the lifestyles study; it's self-selected so probably a little higher, but it's measured properly (top and bone-pressed) and they released the percentile distribution so you can see how variable dick size is (way less than most people think.) The Ponchietti study also has a percentile nomogram of maximum stretched length, which is generally 0.4cm shorter than erect length.
    Figure 1
     
  14. Number 51

    Number 51 Member

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    I've posted before about size-distributions using the Lifestyles survey. First, we'll calculate your erection volume by asuming your penis is a cylinder (which is incorrect but close enough). For a length of 7.25 inches and 6.25 inches girth, that's about 22.5 cubic inches (the average male in the survey is about 11.5 cubic inches). Using the means and standard deviations from the survey and the statistical size-distribution formula for a cylinder, this puts you in the 99.8 percentile for volume with only about 1 out of every 480 men having a larger erect volume than you, and the odds of encountering a larger guy out of sample of 5 men is about 1%. So, there's a 99% chance you're bigger than anyone she's had sex with. Hope this helps.
     
  15. bhram

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    have you thought about just asking her?
     
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