But Jason seems to believe that it would harm both Spain and the EU, and for all I know that's possible too.
I'm amused at this speculation on my views! So here they are:
1) It is not clear that the referendum demonstrated a majority in favour of independence.
2) independence is a difficult concept. It's not about cuddly stuff like flags and anthems, or even armies and borders. Probably the best definition of independence is the ability to issue sovereign bonds. Catalonia wouldn't have this, at least not for some years.
3) Catalan independence would do a lot of damage to Spain, and there are major concerns here.
So am I in favour of Spain staying together? Probably, but not at any price.
4) Spain's state-backed violence against the people who voted was not acceptable. Given that Spain said that in law no referendum was happening, we have the absurdity of people being beaten up by Spanish police for drawing a cross on a piece of paper. Spain should be censured by the international community for the violence.
5) The situation has exposed an absurdity in the Spanish constitution where there is no mechanism for a territory to leave. This absurdity is not unique to Spain, but nonetheless it seems they have a constitution which is illegal in international law.
6) An appropriate response would be dialogue. Catalonia does have some genuine grievances. Instead the decision to suspend home rule in Catalonia seems guaranteed to inflame the situation. The king should be utterly ashamed of his actions. He had the potential to demand mediation.
7) There is almost certainly a shift in popular views in Catalonia since the referendum. People who backed Remain just a few weeks ago will now be more inclined to support independence. There's a real difficulty in knowing just what is happening, but the indicators are that support for independence has rocketed up.
There are clear issues for the EU.
8) The offer of mediation has been made in a whisper. Spain needs to be cajoled into discussions, ie discussion enforced with the threat of EU censure. The Spanish violence should be condemned by the EU.
9) It would be reasonably straightforward to give Catalonia a high level of autonomy within Spain, including a paper transfer of its share of the Spanish sovereign debt, and subsequent bond issue being specifically for Catalonia. It is also practical to stop money transfers from Catalonia to the rest of Spain. There are surprisingly straightforward solutions.
10) A Catalonia which services a share of debt and issues Catalan bonds could in ten years or so be capable of a smooth tradition to independence. This would be a decision for the people at that time.
11) The EU needs a mechanism whereby territories that are in EU nations can transition to independence with EU membership. This certainly applies to parts of Italy and Belgium, and perhaps also to the Basque Region in Spain. The issue was of course raised for Scotland and in theory continues to exist now.
The Catalan separatists may or may not have a majority and are led by arguing, left-wing idiots. In most respects they are in the wrong. However I think Spain is fast changing all this. The new order will be that Spanish fascists (which is what the Catalan separatists are calling them) impose direct rule on what in effect becomes a colony of Spain. I suspect the EU has already failed to mediate, and is very close to condoning violence and condoning colonisation.
I gather Slovenia will definitely recognise Catalan independence, if there is a UDI. I'm pretty sure the Scottish parliament will (a sub-sovereign parliament). It is possible that one or more of the Nordic and Baltic nations will, and perhaps Ireland. I understand Pakistan will recognise Catalan independence.
Catalonia may be the flash-point that demonstrates the moral failure of the EU. The EU should be acting. Instead it is standing by doing nothing useful.
