I...people, especially teenagers, think "this only happens to other people, it cant ever happen to me."...
Not just teenagers. In the early days of the epidemic British guys avoided Americans, young men avoid old men, old men avoid young men. Everybody likes to think "people like me" don't get HIV. So now in Africa it'll be intact guys who'll be the outsiders. Already 60% of African men are circumcised, yet the epidemic is rampant.
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They quote those 48% and 53% Relative Risk Reduction figures because they sound like significant protection, but what they don't tell you is that the rate of infection within one year is so low that they'll have to circumcise
56 men in Uganda to prevent one case of HIV (if the study is accurate). In the US, the figure is much higher because the rate is lower. I doubt that's cost-effective compared to spending the money, time and expertise on education and the promotion and use of condoms.
Paradoxically the Catholic church and the US govt will probably fall in behind promoting circumcision, even though this implies just as much non-marital sex as condoms do, and now it'll be condomless sex. A recipe for disaster.
It's suspicious that they have not let any of the three experiements run their course "because it would be unethical not to offer the men circumcision". Yet they thought it was quite ethical to test the men for HIV and not tell them they were positive "because they might get stigmatised" but rather let them go their merry way infecting women (and men?). This experiment would NEVER have got ethical approval in the US, and there's a degree of racism about experimenting with circumcision on them (rather like injecting 3rd world women with depo povera) because "Africans can't control their animal urges or take control of their own sexuality" but must be given a one-off fix.
Cutting the experiment short gives a spuriously high risk reduction for purely statistical reasons, and because the circumcised men had to abstain from sex while they healed.
And if they combine circumcision with safe-sex eduction in future, they'll be able to give the circumcision the credit for any reduction in HIV that follows, or blame any failure on "not taking enough mucosa" or "not circumcising them early enough".