Comey hearings - the beginning of the end?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by mrcurve, Mar 20, 2017.

  1. mrcurve

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    Not a very good for ol' Donald Trump. His wiretapping claims officially debunked by the CIA and NSA and the FBI announcing in no uncertain terms that they are investigating Trump's campaign and its links to Russia.

    How does Trump respond? "Fake news! Loser Democrats ran a bad campaign!". Can wait to hear the lies he spews in his broadcast tonight.
     
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  2. TexanStar

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    If Trump goes down, it's going to be because he gets bored and quits. I don't see him in that frame of mind yet.

    Republican-led Senate / House aren't going to do crap to him.
     
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  3. mrcurve

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    If given the choice between being anchored to a toxic Trump administration found to be colluding with Russia and cutting bait I hope most sane Republicans with cut that line fast.
     
  4. TexanStar

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    d
    It's not toxic enough. Not to be rude to the American public, but the whole topic is too nuanced. GOP congress isn't going to care about anything unless their constituents care about it, and even if collusion is proved, their constituency just isn't going to give a shit.

    Democrats will raise holy hell, of course, but they're a minority in both buildings. It's not going to amount to anything.

    The investigations should definitely continue, but it's a pipe dream to expect that they're going to result in anything more than some fodder for the next election cycle.
     
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  5. mrcurve

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    Call me an optimist then :)

    Not toxic enough...yet.
     
  6. sargon20

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    Why not? They're too anesthetized to keep up, stay informed and go out and vote. This doesn't all run on autopilot.
     
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  7. Freddie53

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    The orthodox Republicans do not like Trump. They are stuck with him for now. However, the vast majority of the orthodox Republicans are very anti-Putin. If it is proved that Trump and Putin were in the bed together to defeat Clinton, these orthodox Republicans will dump Trump, especially when the approval numbers of Trump drop.

    Trump's approval rating is the lowest of any president's first 100 days in office since polling on the subject began.

    The Republicans did turn on Nixon when the other choice was political suicide. They'll do it to Trump if needed.

    Trump lost the popular vote by two million. His numbers can't fall but just a little in the rust belt and his reelection is toast. The Democrats took the rust belt white blue collar voters for granted. They won't make that mistake in 2018 and 2020.

    When the rust belt white blue collar voters lose their insurance or have to pay double or more, they will dump Trump in a heartbeat.
     
  8. KennF

    KennF Well-Known Member

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    Not going to happen. For the most part, Republicans see an opportunity to get some major advancements on their agenda. Regardless of how toxic Trump gets, as long as they aren't tied to his idiocy, they won't get rid of him. His approval numbers would have to be in the single digits and is his disapproval numbers 85+ before they would miss this opportunity.

    From a political perspective, getting rid of Trump is too great a distraction from legislation and would fracture the party, leaving the Democrats in control.
     
  9. Industrialsize

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    I think you are overlooking the historical nature of these hearings. The FBI director said that Mr Trump and his associates have been under investigation for their connections to Russia, a foreign adversary. I watched the entire hearing. It did not go well. From an anonymous Senior White House Staffer,"I cannot even describe how scared the President is right now. He's convinced this is the beginning of the end." He is right.

    Mr Trump's Gallup approval of 37% stand just 9 points above those of Richard Nixon a week before he resigned. With approval ratings like these or lower, It won't matter if R legislators run from Trump. His toxicity will spill over all of them. Approval ratings like these presage a bloodbath for the R's in the 2018 midterms. The opposition is now fully "woke" and angry. That anger will still be there for the 2018 midterms. Mr Trump is not going to change.
    If he is still president in 2018, I predict the D's will take back the house. They will use their majority to draw up articles of impeachment. Once sent to the Senate, all bets are off. Mr Trump will not last "under oath" for 2 minutes. Public pressure can be enormous, the Republican coalition may collapse over this.
     
  10. TexanStar

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    http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...heres-how-trump-doing-among-republican-voters

    This is the important trendline. For all the talk people here make about Orthodox Republicans and such, the fact remains that Trump still has the unwavering support of his party and there's no hint of movement.

    National trends are skewed by how much he's loathed by Democrats. Dems are the minority in both the house and the Senate. Their opinion of the president matters little.

    Pipe dreaming got us into this mess, I don't think hanging our hat on more pipe dreams will serve us well moving forward.
     
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  11. Braalian82

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    As much as I dislike the Republican Party, I do not believe they would give Trump a pass if evidence comes to light proving he is under the influence of a foreign power. Despite all their issues with racism and homophobia, they are still Americans.
     
  12. KennF

    KennF Well-Known Member

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    *smile* I didn't forget the historical perspective.
    And you're correct that all bets are off beyond the midterms.

    However, for the moment, and at least the next year, the Republicans will not impeach him. They can't yet, politically. The political landscape is not toxic enough to come close.

    Right now, unfortunately, bad polls numbers for Trump are insufficient. He has a partial shield from them, for the time being, since the polls had him losing badly and that didn't happen. Recall... polls had a 90+% chance Clinton winning the White House. Also, his core supporters are inherently distrustful of media and polls.

    With the intra-party fighting, establishment republicans are still too fearful of losing the far-right (alt-right/Freedom Caucus/Tea Party) votes. So, while the hearings will be tough, Trump can, and in all likelihood will, drag them on for several years until the public is numb. He may even hang several more people out to dry as scapegoats.

    But, for now, the Republicans are still too high on the win.

    Lastly, the hearings provide a further separation of the White House from the Congress. People separate them in their minds, and that acts as an insulator. Things will have to deteriorate significantly further before there is a drag down that threatens the House flipping.

    It will boil down, as it did in the 2016 presidential election, to getting voters to the polls. Midterms are notable for voter non-participation. And it is, generally, easier for Republicans to get voters to the polls, than Democrats, for a host of reasons.
     
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  13. Braalian82

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    How much more toxic could it get?
     
  14. KennF

    KennF Well-Known Member

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    Oh... I agree... however, that "proof" won't come to "light" any time soon. It will take years to write any report that provides sufficient evidence that "proves" the issue. There would have to be a direct connection that was video taped, or, irrefutable; AND; presented by a non-biased and non-partisan, or, someone who could be believed without question.
     
  15. KennF

    KennF Well-Known Member

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    ALOT more toxic. Anyone have any pitchforks and torches?
     
  16. Industrialsize

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    I guess I have to repeat myself regarding voter turnout:
    "Approval ratings like these presage a bloodbath for the R's in the 2018 midterms. The opposition is now fully "woke" and angry. That anger will still be there for the 2018 midterms. Mr Trump is not going to change."

    You seem to infer that Mr Trump has some some control over the Comey hearings. He has absolutely none.

    As far as his supporters, their numbers are shrinking daily.
     
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  17. KennF

    KennF Well-Known Member

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    The toxicity has to be between the Republicans and Trump. The Democrats don't count for this, because, the Democrats aren't in power in either chamber.
     
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  18. Braalian82

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    Yeah, his core supporters won't believe any news that isn't virulent Breitbart garbage. Nothing short of an explicit confession by Trump would convince those people.

    But I think the republicans in congress have enough of a conscious to impeach the guy with or without the support of Trump's base. Even a GOP controlled congress wouldn't wait to impeach if it's reasonably proved.
     
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  19. KennF

    KennF Well-Known Member

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    You needn't repeat yourself. I read your comment. :)

    But you are making assumptions that I don't agree with.
    (a) The opposition is now fully "woke" and angry. But that angry is usually fleeting. Women's marches were great, but those same women missed the vote in local elections in California. Town halls were great, but we lost Louisiana's run off due to voter turnout.
    (b) That anger will still be there for the 2018 midterms. That is a prediction, not a fact.
    (c) You seem to infer that Mr Trump has some some control over the Comey hearings. No, I don't. However, the smoking gun is Trump at the hearing, or Trump before Congress. The FBI findings have to go through DOJ and channels. Don't kid yourself, Session's recusal didn't clear a channel of information. His statements to Congress were that he was authorized by the DOJ to inform Congress.

    As for his supporters shrinking? That's debatable. There is a distinct difference between his supporters and those that voted for him. He is losing the latter, but not so much the former.
     
  20. KennF

    KennF Well-Known Member

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    Agreed. Now the question is getting it "reasonably proved" in a Trump Administration.

    The investigators are working against their own personal self-interests. It is a toxic environment to investigate the President and Commander-in-Chief.

    I hope they find it, but I think it will take a chamber of Congress to flip before impeachment becomes even remotely possible.
     
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