Coronavirus Covid-19

[Shrume]

I enjoy golf, tennis, cooking out, drinking a few beers, poker with the dudes, getting high and watching Wes Anderson movies, floating, camping, sitting on the beach, hiking, plushy battles with my son, teaching my daughter to drive, hanging out with my wife. I don’t hunt or go to church. I’m not bullshitting or trolling. I’ve been a liberal for most of my life, except for the last 10-12 years, now I’m independent. I voted for Al Gore for gods sake. Was a big Obama fan. Point being, you too, can break out of the spell.

Oh I forgot ping pong. I love ping pong. And Galaga.

 

[Motion-of-the-Ocean]

I guess we've always been a nation of selfish, non-conforming, science-denying idiots.

Mask resistance during a pandemic isn't new – in 1918 many Americans were 'slackers'

 

[rbkwp]

 

[dandelion]

A second peak is happening here in the US right now!

Where? Where is there a second outbreak after a first one which involved a significant proportion of the population?

WTF are you talking about? The 1919 flu killed at least 40 million in six months. Smallpox killed 500 million in the 20th century alone until isolation, tracing and a vaccine ended it.

As I said, whereas covid has not.

The only reason covid19 "crept up on us" is because it's highly communicable like the common cold where most infected people don't know they have it or are spreading it.

No. The reason it could creep up on us is that the great majority of pople who have it DO NOT NEED MEDICAL ATTENTION. So many many people just thought they had another seasonal cold or flu, and no medics bothered to look into an epidmic no one reported to them.

The UK government has published all the notes, all the data from that time

You are joking, I hope? They most definitely have not. I presume what they published is either that which supports their position, or that which is not controversial. Much is missing.

here's Prof. Ferguson's prediction from March 2020

I replied to that before. Its an imperial college report where he works. He was just one of several people offering models, and they quite plainly did not follow his model findings. Hospitals were told to expect 2 million covid patients. They had about 130,000 beds.

It was this document that made the UK government abandon the early idea of herd immunity based on the large number of dead grannies

Based n the sage papers (admittedly limited), Sage never recommended abandoning going for herd immunity. A few weeks after lockdown government was asking them questions which suggest that by then politicians had decided to abandon going for herd immunity.

and sickening realisation of what was happening in Italy and Spain.

But surely actually no one did realise what was happening there. Which was that a massive proportion of care home residents were dying.

So, in fact, quite the opposite - the g'ment started with a woolly idea and then terrified by the projections of its own scientists, changed tack pretty quick.

Sage started stating this would only be over once herd immunity was achieved, whether in one go or many, quick or slow. And with an implication the deaths would be much the same whichevr route. The projections which terrified government was not ferguson's tens of thousands but SAGE's own worse case scenario of half a milion deaths. When this proved false, because this simply did no happen in April as they predicted, only after that did government seemingly change tack.

Sage called lockdown too early. They were misled by the testing regime, which as it got going found more and more cases, which however were showing a disase which had been growing here much more slowly than they thought, because first case was probably around November last year.

Their mistake was to think that Coronavirus wasn't advancing as quickly as it actually was.

Their mistake was to think covid was advancing far faster than it was.

 

[dandelion]

Have you caught it yet?

I think I had it last december. Which of course would be impossible if it didnt arrive until feb. Yet I had worst flu I ever did. Cough, terrible feeling in lungs which actually was still there a bit when we got to the official lockdown, so I was still coughing occasionally. Loss of taste. fever. Stayed in and slept rather more than usual for a week or so. And......traceable link to comeone who came to the Uk from WUHAN end of november, who promtly went down with flu. Quite a lot of people had it locally, whatever it was. In the official epidemic now locally we have one of the lowest infection rates in the UK. Well we would, if its been going on here quietly though the winter. Hospitals always expect a certain number of deaths from unexplaine and atypical pneumonias. On a small case they wouldnt even notice a few from covid.

Funnily enough, the Uk has banned sale of antibody tests to the genral public without medical administration. And it isnt doing general antibody testing. Fair eough in a way, because most pople even though immune will not develop antibodies. Humans do not normally beat off covid by creating antibodies to it, which is a relatively slow process. We swem to use and develop T cell immunity, which also explains how people get pneumonia through the bodies own immune reaction getting out of control and attacking its lungs, even after the virus is actually dead and gone.

The rest of us have no immunity to it

Thats plain wrong. There was a norwegian study which found x2 as many people develop T cell immunity as antibody. Also long lasting, but harder to test for. They also tested blood from 2019 and I think 2018, and found it had partial immunity to covid, presumably because of cross immunity to other related viruses in common circulation.

Given 4/5 people after infection do not develop symptoms, that basically means they beat off the virus before it develops enough to create symptoms. It is much more accurate to say all fit and healthy and reasonably young humans are naturally immune to covid. Pretty much everyone healthy below pension age.

 

[Tight_N_Juicy]

Point being, you too, can break out of the spell.

Get the fuck over yourself..

 

[g0nz0]

It is much more accurate to say all fit and healthy and reasonably young humans are naturally immune to covid. Pretty much everyone healthy below pension age.

This is quite simply complete horse shit.

I have decades to go to 65, and am very healthy. Low bf%, low bp, low cholesterol, low rhr. I exercise 3-4 times a week. I have O type blood... and I got it in ~April, and was quite sick with it.

Two other family relatives got it and were extremely sick and weak with it. Their only additional consideration is both are type A blood.

 

[Tight_N_Juicy]

Anyone who thinks younger people with no prior health conditions are "immune" to the virus obviously didn't go to medical school.

And they also must be selective listeners/readers.

 

[dandelion]

Dear Everyone,
Stop listening to stupid people. If someone's opinions/beliefs have no grounding in reality do not listen to them.

Theres no real evidence for the effectivness of masks in general public places. That many people have been told and believe there is, is not factual evidence of their effectiveness. Mostly they seem to be in use because they look like something is being done.

I cannot give case studies form anywhere else because i am in the UK. So...

There are two possibilites, either most of the Uk has had the virus, or relatively few have. We do not know which is the case. There was no effective testing to see who was infected at the time they were. Antibodies do not give a reliable measurement of amount of disease (most likely we do not normally zap the virus with antibodies, so it is very unreliable in ascertaining exposure. However, if people are constantly exposed to virus they will slowly develop an antibody response. Though they may never ever get symptoms)

In the first case, we have all had it anyway, the epidemic is essentially over, and masks are quite pointless. Its over folks, lets just get back to work.

In the second case it means the virus was never as infectious as commonly believed. Other evidence from contact tracing of people with the disease has shown that most infected people pass it on to precisely zero others. Actual spread is by relatively few people passing it to many others, or to mass spreading events. Examples are parties, bars, probably crowded public transport. Spread person to person depends critically how close you get. The risk is very small further than 1m apart. Masks irrelevant because the risk is very small anyway. Somewhere between there and touching the risk goes up hugely, It is not linear. If you are in range the risk is huge, and masks even if they cut that by a modest percentage make little real difference. If you got that close to someone infected, the mask will not help.

Experience tells us that normally walking round shops does not transmit the disease. Because if it did, we would all have caught it by now (see first case). If we never catch it from shopping, there is no point wearing a mask to reduce the risk.

The one time in the Uk we might have caught it in a supermarket was in the weeks before lockdown when government told people to stock up on food. Supermarkets were crammed solid. If people ever caught it there, then they did so then, following government advice, and just in time to create the big spike of cases seen around start of April in the UK. It is possible the peak of the epidemic in the Uk was created by government anti epidemic measures. (also it seems likely the policy of clearing hospitals of existing patients sent infected people into care homes, therby causing most of the deaths)

medics have shown masks alone will not stop spread in care homes or hospitals. You have to take lots of other measures as well. Most of all to make very sure no one with the virus ever goes into a care home. Hard to do that in hospitals, and that presumably is why UK hospitals have become a hotbed of catching covid. Probably same in US. As an example, a common pattern in Uk is six bed wards. They found patients were giving it each other, so cut out the middle beds. I'd guess that leaves beds a minium of 6ft/2m apart, more like 6m between the head of each patient. And then they use all sorts of washing, disinfecting, aprons, visors, space suits, whatever. Just a mask isnt going to hack it, and acually is supposed not to stop you catching it at all. Just reduce the amount you breathe out a bit.

 

[dandelion]

I got it in ~April, and was quite sick with it.

Yes but you are still alive. And I said most are immune. Most people who catch it get no symptoms they are aware of. Practically speaking they are immune, and if they are infected a second time they will beat it off quicker. Which is actually all you can say about people who have antibodies to any disease. A proper definition of immunity is that after being infected you fight it off without any noticeable symptoms. Its a dynamic process of removing invader, which is just quicker second time around.

I was quite sick too. I said, worst flu I ever had. But I didnt need medical attention.

 

[g0nz0]

Yes but you are still alive. And I said most are immune. Most people who catch it get no symptoms they are aware of. Practically speaking they are immune, and if they are infected a second time they will beat it off quicker. Which is actually all you can say about people who have antibodies to any disease. A proper definition of immunity is that after being infected you fight it off without any noticeable symptoms. Its a dynamic process of removing invader, which is just quicker second time around.

I was quite sick too. I said, worst flu I ever had. But I didnt need medical attention.

Being quite sick is not equal to immunity, dude. And being quite sick is a slippery slope, and it often doesn't take much for secondary infections to opportunistically step in and push you over the edge very rapidly.

And there is now reasonable evidence that "prevalence estimates remain low and are clearly insufficient to provide herd immunity". See https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext

Plus, over time, immunity may fade, allowing the virus to reinfect you. No one knows what this time period is yet.

 

[Tight_N_Juicy]

Theres no real evidence for the effectivness of masks in general public places. That many people have been told and believe there is, is not factual evidence of their effectiveness. Mostly they seem to be in use because they look like something is being done.

I cannot give case studies form anywhere else because i am in the UK. So...

There are two possibilites, either most of the Uk has had the virus, or relatively few have. We do not know which is the case. There was no effective testing to see who was infected at the time they were. Antibodies do not give a reliable measurement of amount of disease (most likely we do not normally zap the virus with antibodies, so it is very unreliable in ascertaining exposure. However, if people are constantly exposed to virus they will slowly develop an antibody response. Though they may never ever get symptoms)

In the first case, we have all had it anyway, the epidemic is essentially over, and masks are quite pointless. Its over folks, lets just get back to work.

In the second case it means the virus was never as infectious as commonly believed. Other evidence from contact tracing of people with the disease has shown that most infected people pass it on to precisely zero others. Actual spread is by relatively few people passing it to many others, or to mass spreading events. Examples are parties, bars, probably crowded public transport. Spread person to person depends critically how close you get. The risk is very small further than 1m apart. Masks irrelevant because the risk is very small anyway. Somewhere between there and touching the risk goes up hugely, It is not linear. If you are in range the risk is huge, and masks even if they cut that by a modest percentage make little real difference. If you got that close to someone infected, the mask will not help.

Experience tells us that normally walking round shops does not transmit the disease. Because if it did, we would all have caught it by now (see first case). If we never catch it from shopping, there is no point wearing a mask to reduce the risk.

The one time in the Uk we might have caught it in a supermarket was in the weeks before lockdown when government told people to stock up on food. Supermarkets were crammed solid. If people ever caught it there, then they did so then, following government advice, and just in time to create the big spike of cases seen around start of April in the UK. It is possible the peak of the epidemic in the Uk was created by government anti epidemic measures. (also it seems likely the policy of clearing hospitals of existing patients sent infected people into care homes, therby causing most of the deaths)

medics have shown masks alone will not stop spread in care homes or hospitals. You have to take lots of other measures as well. Most of all to make very sure no one with the virus ever goes into a care home. Hard to do that in hospitals, and that presumably is why UK hospitals have become a hotbed of catching covid. Probably same in US. As an example, a common pattern in Uk is six bed wards. They found patients were giving it each other, so cut out the middle beds. I'd guess that leaves beds a minium of 6ft/2m apart, more like 6m between the head of each patient. And then they use all sorts of washing, disinfecting, aprons, visors, space suits, whatever. Just a mask isnt going to hack it, and acually is supposed not to stop you catching it at all. Just reduce the amount you breathe out a bit.

You're really good at using a whole lot of words that mean absolutely Jack shit.

 

[DiamondJoe]

Theres no real evidence for the effectivness of masks in general public places. That many people have been told and believe there is, is not factual evidence of their effectiveness. Mostly they seem to be in use because they look like something is being done.

I cannot give case studies form anywhere else because i am in the UK. So...

There are two possibilites, either most of the Uk has had the virus, or relatively few have. We do not know which is the case. There was no effective testing to see who was infected at the time they were. Antibodies do not give a reliable measurement of amount of disease (most likely we do not normally zap the virus with antibodies, so it is very unreliable in ascertaining exposure. However, if people are constantly exposed to virus they will slowly develop an antibody response. Though they may never ever get symptoms)

In the first case, we have all had it anyway, the epidemic is essentially over, and masks are quite pointless. Its over folks, lets just get back to work.

In the second case it means the virus was never as infectious as commonly believed. Other evidence from contact tracing of people with the disease has shown that most infected people pass it on to precisely zero others. Actual spread is by relatively few people passing it to many others, or to mass spreading events. Examples are parties, bars, probably crowded public transport. Spread person to person depends critically how close you get. The risk is very small further than 1m apart. Masks irrelevant because the risk is very small anyway. Somewhere between there and touching the risk goes up hugely, It is not linear. If you are in range the risk is huge, and masks even if they cut that by a modest percentage make little real difference. If you got that close to someone infected, the mask will not help.

Experience tells us that normally walking round shops does not transmit the disease. Because if it did, we would all have caught it by now (see first case). If we never catch it from shopping, there is no point wearing a mask to reduce the risk.

The one time in the Uk we might have caught it in a supermarket was in the weeks before lockdown when government told people to stock up on food. Supermarkets were crammed solid. If people ever caught it there, then they did so then, following government advice, and just in time to create the big spike of cases seen around start of April in the UK. It is possible the peak of the epidemic in the Uk was created by government anti epidemic measures. (also it seems likely the policy of clearing hospitals of existing patients sent infected people into care homes, therby causing most of the deaths)

medics have shown masks alone will not stop spread in care homes or hospitals. You have to take lots of other measures as well. Most of all to make very sure no one with the virus ever goes into a care home. Hard to do that in hospitals, and that presumably is why UK hospitals have become a hotbed of catching covid. Probably same in US. As an example, a common pattern in Uk is six bed wards. They found patients were giving it each other, so cut out the middle beds. I'd guess that leaves beds a minium of 6ft/2m apart, more like 6m between the head of each patient. And then they use all sorts of washing, disinfecting, aprons, visors, space suits, whatever. Just a mask isnt going to hack it, and acually is supposed not to stop you catching it at all. Just reduce the amount you breathe out a bit.

On this subject at least, I for one am thankful that you are not a government advisor.

Wow. You'll be telling us that 5G masts are somehow involved next...

 

[DiamondJoe]

You're really good at using a whole lot of words that mean absolutely Jack shit.

A lot of words. I mean, a lot.

There's a man frustrated with lockdown

 

[deleted15807]

You're really good at using a whole lot of words that mean absolutely Jack shit.

Yep.

 

[Shrume]

Let’s be honest. Facemasks aren’t really that uncomfortable. And with the right color and style can actually look kinda cool. Just look at Pelosi, she’s always color coordinated. The defiance is more about principles and precedent. So if you believe in masks, why not face shields? Is it because they’re uncomfortable and dorky looking? Probably, right?
Come on y’all, just wear your damn face shields!!!

 

[rbkwp]

This is quite simply complete horse shit.

I have decades to go to 65, and am very healthy. Low bf%, low bp, low cholesterol, low rhr. I exercise 3-4 times a week. I have O type blood... and I got it in ~April, and was quite sick with it.

Two other family relatives got it and were extremely sick and weak with it. Their only additional consideration is both are type A blood.

feel for you,and family
thinking of your predicament G

 

[MickeyLee]

This thread proves ignore is a blessing.

Remember the stupid people I advised not listening to up thread? Yeah. Prime examples on display here.

 

[Motion-of-the-Ocean]

On this subject at least, I for one am thankful that you are not a government advisor.

Wow. You'll be telling us that 5G masts are somehow involved next...

 

[Scarletbegonia]

I work a somewhat physical job, and I have to explain a lot to folks.
I have moments where I’m pretty much sucking wind.
I also am training for a serious backpacking trip, so I’m in the foothills gaining miles and altitude. With a loaded pack. Wearing a mask, the second I hear someone coming.

As an asthmatic, sucking wind is familiar, except the rescue meds don’t work. Weirdly, pill forms of Primatine do work.
I’ve taken to tossing ephedra in my tea. Same result.
I keep a cloth mask on outside of work and home.
Disposable at work by order of the local health department.
Bonus, I toss my cloth in a uv sanitizing cabinet while I’m working.

If I can work and hike with a mask while dealing with diminished lung capacity, other folks can wear one for 20 minutes in the grocery.
Want to feel like you are some sort of rebel? Use a bandana and be a flipping cowboy.
Get one that says “I’m wearing this for your pansy ass”, whatever.
just be a decent human.

Mask use does limit microbial spread. It’s a big reason health workers use them. Along with preventing particle contamination.