Coronavirus Covid-19

dandelion

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I heard it when it was broadcast. And the rest of the series.

The chap at around 10 minutes into the program says just what I said. he says life expectancy for an average 80 year old around 10 years. My argument is that there is clear evidence half the people who died lived in care homes, and in care homes the average life expectancy is 9 months.

I was not basing it on their age, but on the fact they had moved into a care home. He describes the situation based on simple age, and then talks a bit about other illness risks and care homes

The lesson is that the average 80 year old is at much less risk than any 80 year old in a care home. The program placed the average risk for someone around 75-84 as 1/200. But they also specifically discuss care home deaths and placed the risk for a resident as 1/13. They then recalculate the risk for this age group not in care homes as 1/300.

Note, the likelihood is that this is still an average risk, and further analysis of the health of people in this group would allow us to separate out those at high risk or even lower risk. People go to live in care homes for different reasons, one of which is they are so sick they cannot look after themselves. But others will be just as sick but living with family. If we excluded these from the group of people this age still fit enough to look after themselves (probably the majority), then the ones sick at home might end up 1/13 the same, and the rest being more towards 1/1000.

There is a HUGE concentration of deaths amongst the immunologically very weakest in society.

I simply added the googled fact that average life expectancy for someone in a care home is just 9 months, and people like them are the ones dying most. (although it is further possible that as most people survive covid even in care homes, the ones who did die were even there the sickest of the sick already)
 

Brian S

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So 7% of the people in Sweden died? You also say 5676 pople died in sweden, so the population is 81,000?

No... you have no idea what the mortality rate was unless you know how many cases there were. No one anywhere in the world has accurate figure on total of cases. All official figures are minimum numbers, with maximum real cases of 100% of the population.

*Sigh* 7.2% of known cases. Not 7.2% of the population. Obviously.

Of course these figures aren't 100% accurate, which is exactly what the rest of us are talking about: since we just don't know how this is actually affecting our population, we prefer to err on the side of caution. But those figures are the closest we have right now, and the only way we can make an educated guess as to what's happening. I would absolutely agree that there are cases that have gone undiagnosed, but you just can't assume an entire populace has had it because it seems like it would be true. People be like, "Oh it has a 99.9% survival rate!" which is pulling numbers out of thin air by using the entire population of the US. And nobody ever says they're a cancer survivor if they never had cancer in the first place.

Although funnily enough sweden didnt apply restrictions anywhere like its neighbours. They didnt have a lockdown. yet despite that, their case numbers are falling too.

...with a disproportionate, exponentially-greater amount of deaths.

Data suggests covid is not spread uniformly by everyone, but instead by super spreader events. 10% of infected people generate 80% of new cases. Someone goes to that event and infects a lot. Most people just do normal things, and dont infect anyone.

I wouldn't disagree with that, and have actually spoken about as much. A larger population gathered in one area is definitely and obviously more likely to see a greater amount of cases because communicability is exponential. Yeah, I totally agree. But I'm also not going to shirk my duty and downplay the fact that I could give it to or catch it from someone at the store. Just because it's less likely doesn't mean I'm going to take my role any less seriously. Shopping is both a normal thing to do and an event when you have 200 people in the store at any given time. There was an outdoor wedding in our town, scaled way down to 20 people. 3 ended up with Covid. That seems relatively safe compared to hitting the grocery store with 200 people in it, doesn't it? And yeah, it's anecdotal, but to me the point that everyone's anecdotes can vary quite wildly is the problem.

My point is that it costs me absolutely nothing to err on the side of caution until we nip this in the bud. Wearing a mask, for instance, affects my life by 0.0%. If it turns out it was necessary? Great! If it turns out it wasn't necessary, it was never a big deal to begin with. And we're only talking about deaths, as well, while setting aside the lifelong side effects some Covid patients are experiencing. And the possibility that we don't know what kind of effects this could have on our bodies.

I could make someone die. If not, I could make someone have lifelong organ damage, reduced lung capacity, etc. If not, I could make them be intubated in a hospital bed for weeks at a time. If not, I could give it to someone who gives it to their grandma and kills her. If not, I could make someone get sick enough to miss work and put an even greater financial strain on their family. And I don't wanna be responsible for any of it. It's not just deaths. It's also not just the sick or elderly that are dying from this, as if that makes it any better - I don't care if someone has cancer or is 90 years old; it's not my right to end their life because of those things. I'm not hunkered down in a bunker with thousands of dollars of canned goods and 50 packs of toilet paper. I'm not afraid to set foot outside my home. I run errands, I go to the grocery store, I do the things I need to do. I'm also more conscientious in public, which is not a bad thing. Yeah, some people have mild cases, but some are dying prolonged, horrible deaths from this. And whatever that percentage ends up being, it's great enough that I am going to choose to mitigate that risk by any means.
 

g0nz0

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My point is that it costs me absolutely nothing to err on the side of caution until we nip this in the bud. Wearing a mask, for instance, affects my life by 0.0%. If it turns out it was necessary? Great! If it turns out it wasn't necessary, it was never a big deal to begin with. And we're only talking about deaths, as well, while setting aside the lifelong side effects some Covid patients are experiencing. And the possibility that we don't know what kind of effects this could have on our bodies.

^^^ this. 100%. Why is this so difficult? And why, in certain countries, has it been politicized?

Politicians had a perfect arse-covering out right at the start of this -- we're just going to go with public health advice...

By being slow to lock down, and over-eager to open back up, a nation is not only risking longer deeper economic damage, but also mindlessly causing deaths. It all beggars belief!
 

Brian S

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^^^ this. 100%. Why is this so difficult? And why, in certain countries, has it been politicized?

Politicians had a perfect arse-covering out right at the start of this -- we're just going to go with public health advice...

By being slow to lock down, and over-eager to open back up, a nation is not only risking longer deeper economic damage, but also mindlessly causing deaths. It all beggars belief!

Yep! I also truly do believe cultural differences are a big factor in all this. I know what I see coming from the UK, I know what's reported about Sweden, but I don't have boots on the ground there. And the US is so vast and culturally diverse that I could say the same for outstate Montana or New York City.

Here, specifically where I am, there's a hugely lackadaisical attitude toward it all. We didn't get hit as hard because our population isn't as dense, therefore it's a hoax. I went to the store and saw about 10% in masks, so I left and went to WalMart instead. The US is extremely divided politically about this, and from my experience it isn't even republicans vs democrats; it's Trump cult apologists vs everyone else. (Generally; there is some crossover.) You have people on facebook being menacing and threatening physical harm. We had a lady literally shove an elderly man to the ground at Menards because they required masks. In our restaurant, we've had people screeching about "muh rIgHTs" and taking it out on staff when we're following our state's guidelines. And part of that is due to the fact that other places are NOT following those guidelines. People have asked my partner if it was "really necessary" for our staff to be masked, with derisiveness in their tones. I've had people roll their eyes and laugh at me and others who are masked in a store. Not even joking: A 3rd generation Hispanic friend of mine was verbally accosted by a Karen who said "We don't wear masks here" and she could go back to where she came from if she hated America so much. Like, some of these people are literally using racism, homophobia, and/or xenophobia to justify not wearing a mask. A lady on fb who comments on EVERY news story says that God will protect her and that only atheists and people who do not subscribe to her particular beliefs will die from Covid. That if you do die from Covid, it's because you weren't "Christian" and you deserve to die because God is cleansing the Earth. (She's also insulted other pastors, saying it's her way or the highway, essentially, and that they're going to die and deserve to die. Really.) It's people who are quite happy to subjugate others based on race, religion, gender, orientation, etc, but who think their civil rights are being eroded by being asked to wear a mask. It's people saying they're gonna take their AR-15 to any store who requires a mask and "We'll see if they try to deny me!"

We are an extremely selfish nation, and a huge population is very under-educated. We're all about large gatherings, too, and damned if anyone's gonna tell me how to live! I'm a patriot, dammit, and this is America! *Insert rootin-tootin revolver fire* Like, there are a huge amount of people here who question whether Covid even exists. Not just wondering about the communicability of it, or whether it's as dangerous as is being reported. But flat-out refuse to believe it even exists. And some who think it does exist, but actually believe it's somehow the fault of the democratic party. Literally saw a guy on facebook trying to pin this on Obama, somehow. I mean, we have some dumb people here. And that's not to say stupidity or ignorance is uniquely American, but I do believe it's nigh impossible to really, truly grasp a cultural atmosphere until you live it day to day.
 

MickeyLee

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Brian S said:
And that's not to say stupidity or ignorance is uniquely American, but I do believe it's nigh impossible to really, truly grasp a cultural atmosphere until you live it day to day.

Like all things, Burgerland has biggie-sized stupidity just cuz Burgerland can.
 

rbkwp

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Like all things, Burgerland has biggie-sized stupidity just cuz Burgerland can.

unfortunate reality
i know i go overboard ridiculing that country
ensuring i occasionally say
'not the citizens'that i mean of course

wouldn't blame anyone for telling me to STF up
the mere fact its in the public eye 24/7
reason i geuss
 

rbkwp

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^^^ this. 100%. Why is this so difficult? And why, in certain countries, has it been politicized?

Politicians had a perfect arse-covering out right at the start of this -- we're just going to go with public health advice...

By being slow to lock down, and over-eager to open back up, a nation is not only risking longer deeper economic damage, but also mindlessly causing deaths. It all beggars belief!

so true
as i said several times in RT
i caught out 3 different SKY TV presenters,ridiculously stating
'we are doing better than NZ'

not at all so
esp if you look now,at how its turned around to bite our beloved neighbors arse

we're just going to go with public health advice...
By being slow to lock down, and over-eager to open back up,
 
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MickeyLee

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unfortunate reality
i know i go overboard ridiculing that country
ensuring i occasionally say
'not the citizens'that i mean of course

wouldn't blame anyone for telling me to STF up
the mere fact its in the public eye 24/7
reason i geuss

Nah. It's the citizens. Burgerlandians have no one to blame cept Burgerlandians.

Like, almost 48% of voting population had a choice and went with: Canceled Game Show Host and Bankrupt Casino Builder with Zero Political Experience cuz Left-Coast Liberal Elitism, Emails and Freedumb!

Did I mention the Canceled Game Show Host is a billionaire? From the East Coast. Who attended a school that run about $300,000 for a degree? Oh, the common man, embrace him!

Then ya have Burgers who stayed home on Election Day cuz their guy wasn't on the ballot or they weren't excited about Hilary.

We also drive huge seats 8 vehicles, fucking every where, with one person in them.

In the face of Covid? Haircuts, going to the gym and beach weekends "trumped" public health, science and rational thinking.

Burgerland is this video. The chorus is chanted. The lyrics and meaning oft overlooked.
 

rbkwp

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Nah. It's the citizens. Burgerlandians have no one to blame cept Burgerlandians.

Like, almost 48% of voting population had a choice and went with: Canceled Game Show Host and Bankrupt Casino Builder with Zero Political Experience cuz Left-Coast Liberal Elitism, Emails and Freedumb!

Did I mention the Canceled Game Show Host is a billionaire? From the East Coast. Who attended a school that run about $300,000 for a degree? Oh, the common man, embrace him!

Then ya have Burgers who stayed home on Election Day cuz their guy wasn't on the ballot or they weren't excited about Hilary.

We also drive huge seats 8 vehicles, fucking every where, with one person in them.

In the face of Covid? Haircuts, going to the gym and beach weekends "trumped" public health, science and rational thinking.

Burgerland is this video. The chorus is chanted. The lyrics and meaning oft overlooked.


uhmmm, i geuss so
you folk would know much more of the grass root dynamics/inside info

geuss there is a little consolation prize for me ha

i have been known to state,millions vote,whomever in ha 2
love 'the boss' BTW,one of a few genuine

Nah. It's the citizens. Burgerlandians have no one to blame cept Burgerlandians.
 

rbkwp

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dont ever think Kiwis must be flightless angels
i never have

Police charge four people who allegedly escaped Covid-19 isolation in Hamilton
Mike Mather, Andre Chumko, Josephine Franks and Caroline Williams08:57, Jul 25 2020
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1595626048556.jpg

MARK TAYLOR/STUFF
Four of the alleged escapees were found and detained by 7.50pm on Friday and had been returned to the hotel.
1595626048556.jpg

Police charge four people who allegedly escaped Covid-19 isolation in Hamilton
 
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Scarletbegonia

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Nah. It's the citizens. Burgerlandians have no one to blame cept Burgerlandians.

Like, almost 48% of voting population had a choice and went with: Canceled Game Show Host and Bankrupt Casino Builder with Zero Political Experience cuz Left-Coast Liberal Elitism, Emails and Freedumb!

Did I mention the Canceled Game Show Host is a billionaire? From the East Coast. Who attended a school that run about $300,000 for a degree? Oh, the common man, embrace him!

Then ya have Burgers who stayed home on Election Day cuz their guy wasn't on the ballot or they weren't excited about Hilary.

We also drive huge seats 8 vehicles, fucking every where, with one person in them.

In the face of Covid? Haircuts, going to the gym and beach weekends "trumped" public health, science and rational thinking.

Burgerland is this video. The chorus is chanted. The lyrics and meaning oft overlooked.

Bruce is often misunderstood, but he made bank off that album, which financed his more overtly progressive albums afterward.

when I see antimaskers, I hear Townes Van Zandt in my head. I’m one degree of separation from Townes, and possibly did cross paths with him at a startlingly young age.
 
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Scarletbegonia

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DiamondJoe

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