Coronavirus

[slivovic]

^ No doubt he would be crying "rivers of blood" if Hillary won. Conservatives somehow could not get over Benghazi 's 14 deaths and now want us to flush 100,000+ dead down the memory hole. And not hold COVIDIOT-45 responsible for any of it. Let's blame China, the WHO and Obama.

Trump has amazing powers. He can create a virus (a flu like virus. flu which kills 10s of thousands of Americans annually) and thus become solely to blame for everyone who has died from it. And at the same time make totally inert Democratic governors (who coincidentally have nearly all the deaths) so that people like Cuomo have 0 responsibility for deaths. Amazing Trump's powers of infectiveness, so that he can target Democrat states so powerfully. Also shows how impotent Cuomo is. Daddy indeed

 

[slivovic]

No, probably because more did NOT die from H1N1 than have already died from coronavirus, even at this early date with the first wave not over and subsequent waves yet to arrive.

H1N1 only killed roughly 12,500 Americans. The coronavirus has already killed over 100,000 in its first not fully completed wave -- and there are always further waves.

Only an estimated 0.02 percent of estimated H1N1 cases resulted in death.

The rate for the coronavirus will no doubt be lower than originally feared, but it is going to be many times the H1N1 figure.

There are different estimates as to the total death toll caused by H1N1. That figure is most likely an underestimate. If the same kind of criteria were imposed during the H1N1, that is classifying all deaths 'with' H1N1 as opposed to from, the death toll would have been factors higher.
From Influenza pandemic - Wikipedia

Due to inadequate surveillance and lack of healthcare in many countries, the actual total of cases and deaths was likely much higher than reported. Experts, including the WHO, have since agreed that an estimated 284,500 people were killed by the disease, about 15 times the number of deaths in the initial death toll.

Hong Kong flu - Wikipedia

The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that in total, the virus killed one million people worldwide,[16] from its beginning in July 1968 until the outbreak faded during the winter of 1969–70.[17] The CDC estimated that about 100,000 people died in the U.S; most excess deaths were in those 65 and older.

Seem familiar?

 

[slivovic]

^ No doubt he would be crying "rivers of blood" if Hillary won. Conservatives somehow could not get over Benghazi 's 14 deaths and now want us to flush 100,000+ dead down the memory hole. And not hold COVIDIOT-45 responsible for any of it. Let's blame China, the WHO and Obama.

If Hillary was somehow responsible for the loss of 14 diplomats, that would be a serious dereliction of duty. On the other hand that was never proved. I can't see in any case how she could be solely responsible. I forget a lot of the details.

Edit: who is saying that Trump has 'no responsibility'? Maybe Fox. Not me. Unless you can point to something specific that I've said. What is utterly absurd is giving him *sole* responsibility. Which seems to be happening. Or are folks only trolling?

 

[slivovic]

I live in Florida, our ridiculous Trumpublican Governor DeSantis deemed churches essential businesses. It may account for the fact that we've had more than 50,000 cases of covid-19 in spite of the fact that we also have HEAT, SUNLIGHT and plenty of vitamin D.

With relatively few deaths and by far the majority the elderly, especially those in care facilities, who presumably don't go outside as much.

In Florida, 83 percent of coronavirus deaths are people 65 and older

 

[ConanTheBarber]

There are different estimates as to the total death toll caused by H1N1. That figure is most likely an underestimate. If the same kind of criteria were imposed during the H1N1, that is classifying all deaths 'with' H1N1 as opposed to from, the death toll would have been factors higher.
From Influenza pandemic - Wikipedia

Due to inadequate surveillance and lack of healthcare in many countries, the actual total of cases and deaths was likely much higher than reported. Experts, including the WHO, have since agreed that an estimated 284,500 people were killed by the disease, about 15 times the number of deaths in the initial death toll.

But the coronavirus, still in its very early stages if one assumes, as one more or less must, that recurrent waves will strike, has already killed more. Your original suggestion was that H1N1 killed more. Remember that.

Hong Kong flu - Wikipedia

The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that in total, the virus killed one million people worldwide,[16] from its beginning in July 1968 until the outbreak faded during the winter of 1969–70.[17] The CDC estimated that about 100,000 people died in the U.S; most excess deaths were in those 65 and older.

Seem familiar?

Okay. One million dead. That is a bit less than three times the number of deaths to date by coronavirus. But how long will it take for the coronavirus to chalk up equal or far larger numbers. You seem to have many fine qualities, including exceptional prescience. But I, personally, have no idea by how many factors the current death total, whatever it is, will mount to. A three-fold increase would not surprise me. But perhaps, knowing the real current total, a two-fold increase, or even less, would bring the current pandemic into first-place status.

This pandemic is still making inroads into areas that have so far been lightly affected (around the world, I mean). Some places that have lifted restrictions are noting a disappointing upward tick in their numbers. Not to flog a dead horse, but most experts would be highly surprised if there is not a second wave in the fall or early winter.

I have no problem saying that, with deaths low enough, one would not want to put up with the economic devastation that shutdowns have occasioned. If 762 people died from some pernicious new disease, I would note it briefly and reflect that capricious nature has spared me once again. But you seem quite contemptuous of people who look at the mounting numbers of coronavirus deaths and think that a great deal of economic dislocation, for the moment, is necessary -- even in economic terms, since any strong re-emergence of the virus will sit the economy even more squarely on its ass.

You say there is paranoia in these concerns. You say a bad bargain is being struck when navigating between the ravages of plague and the devastations of a stand-still economy.

You could be right -- but I will never understand where your certainty comes from.

 

[slivovic]

But the coronavirus, still in its very early stages if one assumes, as one more or less must, that recurrent waves will strike, has already killed more. Your original suggestion was that H1N1 killed more. Remember that.

I can't find the original source(s) on which I made that claim. Perhaps I'll find them. Perhaps then my statement was a little hyperbolic. I'd assume on the basis of what I have provided, considering that sources admit that the numbers of H1N1 deaths in the US were underestimated, that the death tolls were at least comparable.

Okay. One million dead. That is a bit less than three times the number of deaths to date by coronavirus. But how long will it take for the coronavirus to chalk up equal or far larger numbers. You seem to have many fine qualities, including exceptional prescience. But I, personally, have no idea by how many factors the current death total, whatever it is, will mount to. A three-fold increase would not surprise me. But perhaps, knowing the real current total, a two-fold increase, or even less, would bring the current pandemic into first-place status.

This pandemic is still making inroads into areas that have so far been lightly affected (around the world, I mean). Some places that have lifted restrictions are noting a disappointing upward tick in their numbers. Not to flog a dead horse, but most experts would be highly surprised if there is not a second wave in the fall or early winter.

I have no problem saying that, with deaths low enough, one would not want to put up with the economic devastation that shutdowns have occasioned. If 762 people died from some pernicious new disease, I would note it briefly and reflect that capricious nature has spared me once again. But you seem quite contemptuous of people who look at the mounting numbers of coronavirus deaths and think that a great deal of economic dislocation, for the moment, is necessary -- even in economic terms, since any strong re-emergence of the virus will sit the economy even more squarely on its ass.

You say there is paranoia in these concerns. You say a bad bargain is being struck when navigating between the ravages of plague and the devastations of a stand-still economy.

You could be right -- but I will never understand where your certainty comes from.

Well, you admit that the likelihood was that Hong Kong flu (in a much smaller population) was likely more lethal, and the numbers of deaths are almost certainly underestimated (ditto the Asian flu of the late 50s). I have no problem with caution. I have no problem with individuals protecting themselves to the maximum extent possible. I do have a degree of contempt of bedwetting lawmakers who throw away the future, or a good chunk of it, without certainty themselves. There is no evidence thus far of this being on a worse trajectory than those 2 flu epidemics I've cited, and lawmakers at those times did relatively little to shut down the economy. And nobody seems to remember those outbreaks as being anything in particular. I think a lot needs to be learned from this. We need to have better modelling and to hold off on definitive action based on incomplete modelling. And if we do go down a certain path, we need to have a better defined 'exit strategy'. On the other hand, I feel that we take seasonal flu too lightly. I think it would be sound to emphasize hygiene more consistently, as a way of life.

I do feel that our politicians and bureaucracies are manifestly inadequate in dealing with serious issues. And this doesn't devolve to one individual. There are a lot of nervous nellies in the system (I speak for Australia but I assume it is similar in most countries and especially at the UN) who don't really know anything, but they have the power to shut down whole countries or even the world. We should know more about such people.

We do live in a 'snowflake' era. Something like the deaths caused by WWII or Spanish flu would cause paroxysms, shrieks of existential terror, if repeated nowadays. But we can't 'process' away all risk. If something goes wrong, someone will demand better 'processes'. As if that is all that is required. We need better, wiser, more humane leaders and experts across the board. Process doesn't change human nature, and it doesn't change biology. We've had thousands of years to observe illness, and we've done things here that weren't employed in times of Black Death (or Spanish flu). That seems to me to be complete overkill.
Not that some of the measures can't be justified to some degree, in some places.

I never said my opinion was definitive. We all happen to have opinions. I might be opinionated more than average, but that doesn't mean I believe that my opinion is inherently more or less important. However my opinion is hardening into certainty (that takes a lot of effort on my part. Although you feel I am certain I didn't start there. But I would say I've reached about 99.5% certainty by now)

 

[Industrialsize]

. But I would say I've reached about 99.5% certainty by now)

You're funny...

 

[Brodie888]

American exceptionalism is dead. The emperor has no clothes. Once the bright beacon on the hill, now a pitiful disgrace. The Trump presidency has screamed loudly to the world that we are no better than any of the worst dictatorships in history.

 

[b.c.]

Even as some sources have already reported the American death toll from Covid-19 at over 100,000, the Trump Death Clock in Times Square doesn't quite show that as of this writing. Even still, it DOES attribute MORE THAN HALF of those number (approaching 60 THOUSANDS to Trump's own inactions, including ignoring warnings, discounting facts, spewing lies, and covering up medical information and advice.

05/27/2020 07:33:00
TOTAL ESTIMATED U.S. COVID-19 DEATHS: 99,128​

T r u m p D e a t h C l o c k

Estimated U.S. COVID-19 Deaths Due To POTUS Inaction​

In January 2020, the Trump administration was advised that immediate action was required to stop the spread of COVID-19. According to NIAID Director Dr. Anthony Fauci, “there was a lot of pushback” to this advice. ...Trump declined to act until March 16th. Experts estimate that, had mitigation measures been implemented one week earlier, 60% of American COVID-19 deaths would have been avoided. (For further reading, click here).

The LATEST coronavirus news:

• Footage of packed pool party at Houston club draws criticism

• Virginia Reports Biggest Daily Spike in New Coronavirus Cases as Governor Issues Face Mask Requirements

• WHO Suspends Trial Of Drug Touted By Trump Over Safety Fears For COVID-19 Patients | HuffPost

• Alabama Beachgoers Belittle Coronavirus Threat On Busy Memorial Day Weekend | HuffPost

MEANWHILE, the PSYCHOPATH in the Oval Office, besides falsely accusing someone of murder, calling women (I won't even repeat it) and a whole bunch of OTHER unconscionable, sick fk shit, is still lying his ASS off and trying to get even MORE people killed. Not that he EVER gave a flying fuck about who has died and who may YET die, listening to HIM:

• Trump lies about H1N1 pandemic on day when U.S. deaths from COVID-19 officially pass 100,000

• Trump tells a reporter to take off coronavirus mask and stop being ‘politically correct’ – Raw Story

• Trump adviser blasted for describing U.S. workers as 'human capital stock' ready to return to jobs

 

[b.c.]

Btw, have you ever wondered about those in our media (both near and afar) who have BEEN trying to blow smoke up our asses about this pandemic? ... and WHY?? I sure as hell have. I mean, hey. If someone is telling me don't mind the traffic, go out and play in the fkn STREET, I personally am inclined to wonder WHY??

Hackers and Spies Could Sabotage Coronavirus Pandemic Response

Outside their borders, states might use disinformation to undermine their adversaries or disrupt an alliance between other nations. A sudden epidemic—when countries struggle to manage not just the outbreak but its social, economic and political fallout—is especially tempting for interference.

In the case of coronavirus, such interference is already well underway. That fact should not come as a surprise. States hostile to the West have a long track record of manipulating information about health issues to sow distrust.

In the 1980s, for example, the Soviet Union spread the false story that the U.S. Department of Defense bioengineered HIV in order to kill African Americans.

• Bots Are Likely Responsible For Nearly Half Of COVID-19 Tweets, Say Researchers

• Nearly Half of Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories on Twitter Are Coming From Bots

 

[Industrialsize]

 

[dandelion]

But how long will it take for the coronavirus to chalk up equal or far larger numbers.

Now there's a question. Possible answers range from 3 months to never.

I dont know details of what been happening in the US, except the president seems to have stepped back and its up to individual states. In the UK, the government has a panel of experts it calls 'sage', which it asks for advice.

Sage initially said, mostly, they didnt know what would happen. But based upon inadequate data, the death rate and other stuff the chinese provided, they considered reasonable worst case 800,000 deaths in UK. Move on a month, and they said this might be reduced by 25-50% if all of several suggested measures were introduce. Around 10 March, they said this must be done within 2 weeks, and even so the NHS would be overrun by all the cases.

As far as i can see, the government did as instructed. Peak came and went, and left us at around only 50,000 deaths, 1/10 the prediction. Something went wrong. Emergency special built hospitals...never used.

Having been presumably told to prepare for a million patients, the NHS emptied its hospitals of ordinary patients. This was a serious mistake. People with covid ended up being sent to care homes full of other high risk people, spreading the infection. There was a big row about shortages of protective clothing. Very few NHS staff became seriously ill or died, no more than the general population, but the NHS does seem to have become a centre of infection not only to the old, but to the general community.

In the general community, the kings college phone app study estimate a peak of 2.1 million people with syptoms, at about a week after lockdown. This has fallen steadily ever since, and has been under control for weeks. However residual new infections seem to be coming from hospitals and care homes.(3 million people work in medicine or care)

I havent seen an analysis, but I would think between 1/4 and 1/2 the deaths were because of failures to properly protect the old. Well...more than that, but in terms of things which look like they might have been prevented. The NHS got ready to fight the wrong epidemic, because it was told to prepare for vast numbers which never arrived.

Risk from the disease approximately doubles every 6 years older you are. 95% of people who died in the Uk, had some other condition which made the effects worse. So even fit 90 year olds were by no means doomed. But these two facts were pretty much understood beforehand. It was known the bulk of deaths would be in this group. Strategy failed to protect them, but instead protected the young nearly as much, which was wholly pointless. If the fit working population had carried on working, wouldnt have increased the deaths much if at all.

The answer to your question depends what went wrong. It might be sage got the infection numbers right, but the death percentage wrong. If so, it is basically all over. Most people have had it.

Or they didnt do so badly on death percentage, but far fewer became sick. If so, it might come back.

Estimates of antibody production are around 17% in London and 5% nationally. But that might not be a useful number. Estimates of the total of asymptomatic cases have ranged from 40-85%. The huge question is how do they come about, and are they infectious? In one model, these are people who simply beat off the virus very easily, never become very infectious and never need to make antibodies. In another they simply dont get symptoms, but spread it just as much. The chinese thought they did spread it, and made it hard for them to track cases. But in reality they wouldnt have to be very infectious to sneak the disease through quarantine (but I also suspect this might have been a convenient excuse for the chines who simply failed to catch full blown cases). It is possible all these people really arent taking much part in the epidemic at all, so can basically be ignored. If you can ignore 85% of the people... that only leaves 15% to catch it, and on the numbers that would account for everyone in London. Epidemic over.

This is a city disease. We are told the closer you get to someone with it, the greater the chance they breathe on you and you catch it. So almost obviously it is a city disease, but where exactly does it get spread? Crowds...So pubs, clubs, theatres, parties, sports....and CROWDED COMMUTER TRAINS! Thats my guess, its the transport system. There has been a study in New York, suggesting its the tube system spreeding it. Rush hour tube in london, you are standing like sardines, breathing directly on each other.

It is possible that if all the commuters have already had it, much of the disease spread outside London will disappear too, because it was commuters going home across a huge chunk of south east and central England spreading it. Ditto it has centred on other Uk cities. In the countryside the spread rate R might quite naturally be less than 1, ie it will just die out.

Oh,and if the R is very uneven and depends on certain events to spread it where people get very close, then the people who most often are in such situations will have been the first to catch it. So even if a lot of people are potentially susceptible, if those at high risk of catching have already done so (eg all the commuters), then once again the disease will be deprived of a ways to spread...and die out. These are two scenarios why we wouldnt need a huge proportion immune to have achieved herd immuntiy and essentially stopped it being able to spread again.

If Sage have commented on this, we dont know. Their reports are secret.

 

[deleted15807]

• Trump tells a reporter to take off coronavirus mask and stop being ‘politically correct’ – Raw Story

The collision between hatred of government, hatred of science, quackery and narcissism once again hits the wall. More dead people added to the Trump death count. One day we will have the death count for his climate change denial and the years missed we could have been doing something about it. He's dissolving right before our eyes overcome by his manifest unfitness and an enemy he cannot see, cannot insult and cannot slim. Though he did try to stick Wuhan virus to it but he's losing his touch and nothing sticks anymore as his presidency and the country plunges into the abyss.

A psychiatrist explains why Trump’s obsession with Joe Scarborough murder conspiracy might be a sign of dementia – Alternet.org


​

 

[deleted15807]

He won't wear a mask, to save others, but will wear a bullet proof vest , to save himself....

Trump is losing even the mask war

President Trump’s approval ratings have tanked recently. In RealClear Politics averages, his net approval is -11. While we have gotten used to the cynical talking point that “nothing matters” — meaning Trump’s approval is resistant to outside events — double-digit unemployment and nearly 100,000 dead Americans may have finally chased away all but the hard-core MAGA crowd.

His attempts to divert attention and reconnect with a broader base of support have failed miserably. Defaming MSNBC host Joe Scarborough and torturing a dead woman’s family with conspiracy talk have been widely condemned, even on the right. Now, his defiance on wearing a mask seems to be failing as well.

​

 

[ozwestcoastboy]

 

[phonehome]

He won't wear a mask, to save others, but will wear a bullet proof vest , to save himself....

Trump is losing even the mask war

President Trump’s approval ratings have tanked recently. In RealClear Politics averages, his net approval is -11. While we have gotten used to the cynical talking point that “nothing matters” — meaning Trump’s approval is resistant to outside events — double-digit unemployment and nearly 100,000 dead Americans may have finally chased away all but the hard-core MAGA crowd.

His attempts to divert attention and reconnect with a broader base of support have failed miserably. Defaming MSNBC host Joe Scarborough and torturing a dead woman’s family with conspiracy talk have been widely condemned, even on the right. Now, his defiance on wearing a mask seems to be failing as well.

​

WRT to this supposed "murder plot" here is real basic question that I admit I do not know the answer to to but could put an end to this in not time flat

Because Trump is accusing JS of killing the woman in question, actually himself killing her , not that he "had it done" of "puting out hit" on her but doing it HIMSELF

Well

Was he even in FL on the day in question ?

If it can be shown that he was in DC on the day in question, at work in his House office, with loads of people that can attest to that, attending a hearing, or on the house floor which CSPAN may even have video of then it would be "Hey Donald, I was not even there"

Talk about the ultimate "drop the mic" moment

 

[slivovic]

View attachment 17171241

Btw, have you ever wondered about those in our media (both near and afar) who have BEEN trying to blow smoke up our asses about this pandemic? ... and WHY?? I sure as hell have. I mean, hey. If someone is telling me don't mind the traffic, go out and play in the fkn STREET, I personally am inclined to wonder WHY??

Yeah perhaps. But where are the sources of information coming from that seems to suggest that coronavirus is the 2nd coming of the black death? Perhaps people should try to think for themselves, rather than rely on partial or misleading sources of information, like the mass media? In any case, if you are replying to me, that whole thesis of yours is a complete strawman. I wonder if any Chicken Little like doomsayers can do anything like nuance. I guess that's definitionally impossible.

 

[slivovic]

Rowe is a rubbish cartoonist, and utterly predictable. He needed to get some basic line proficiency before anyone told him he was 'good' at art. And he's so far to the left he makes Stalin look like Thatcher

 

[slivovic]

As per dandelion's post, the curve is flattening everywhere. I would say that 1 million is looking very unlikely. And if we reach there, it will be sans vaccine in a few years. So ipso facto, not as bad as Hong Kong flu, which happened in one season. But the thing about seasonal flus is, they tend only to last 1 season. That is, in their most deadly aspect. I would be fairly sure that this will morph into exactly that. But in any case, the worst kind of economy killing measures have been proven to be overkill. Unless flu deaths now have to be prevented at all costs, every year. What about the road toll? Cancer? Should smoking be outlawed?

 

[slivovic]

Yeah perhaps. But where are the sources of information coming from that seems to suggest that coronavirus is the 2nd coming of the black death? Perhaps people should try to think for themselves, rather than rely on partial or misleading sources of information, like the mass media? In any case, if you are replying to me, that whole thesis of yours is a complete strawman. I wonder if any Chicken Little like doomsayers can do anything like nuance. I guess that's definitionally impossible.

Actually, I just realized BC is positing a conspiracy theory. Mobile phone radiation isn't good for us, probably, but if anyone is accusing me of spreading 5g conspiracy theories then he or she has jumped the shark.