Coronavirus

[teddybaerli1]

Just read something on the internet and felt tears running instantly...

A priest who was brought to a crowded Italian hospital with a corona infection to get a ventilation treatment to survive begged the medial staff to choose a younger person to take the ventilation instead of him...


Here is a picture of that incredible man and the note I read:

"This priest, Suffering from the coronavirus, gave up his ventilator to give to a younger patient and has died. His name was Don Giuseppe Berardelli. He was 72 years old, from Bergamo".

 

[deleted15807]

Yes yes, and who is he asking? The bad continental EUropeans whom he immediately locked out with travel bans (except of course UK and Ireland exclusively because of the language, since he is as ignorant as a shoe). Also trying to bribe a German company (the crauts so hated by the Brexiteers that Trump supports) for the exclusivity of a potential vaccine and so on. Pretty disgusting to say the least!
We will never forget.

He left UK and Ireland out because he had golf courses there.

 

[d3ofol_griffin]

I dont think much of Trump. But the reason the US cannot provide from its own resources is due to globalism and the exporting of manufacturing industry from within the US (not least to China), not anything Trump has done.

TRUMP SAYS
“We should never be reliant on a foreign country for the means of our own survival,” Trump said at a White House briefing on Tuesday evening. “America will never be a supplicant nation.”
In his public rhetoric Donald Trump has been talking up the domestic private sector response to the crisis.
However behind the scenes,
the administration has approached European and Asian partners to secure supplies of testing kits and other medical equipment that are in desperately short supply in the US, and on Tuesday, Trump spoke by phone with the South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, asking if his country could supply medical equipment.

Nothing wrong is asking for help but at least - if its ever possible Mister President - tell the truth - the American domestic private sector cannot provide what is required due to lack of diligence from your administration.

It is odd to hear Trump say, "We should never be reliant on a foreign country for the means of our own survival." Our country completely relies on other countries for goods and services. It is always cheaper to manufacture things in countries with totalitarian governments like China or where ever labor is cheap. This is capitalism.

 

[Braalian82]

Well, yes, they would. But the question which remains unanswered is by how much? We do not know the upper bound on the amount of care needed, which might be a lot more than we ordinarily have, but it also could be only a relatively small excess over capacity.

Well considering that it hasn’t been a “small excess” anywhere the virus was allowed to spike. The virus IS extremely contagious and it WILL overwhelm the NHS (and all other healthcare systems) if aggressive measures aren’t taken to enforce social distancing. This is a fact.

 

[d3ofol_griffin]

Ah, but thats the point. If it is really the case that half of the population have had it already, then we are already well on the way to having herd immunity and it being quite unlikely there will be any significant recurrence. Certainly not one more serious than usual winter flu.

Authorities have so far all taken steps to halt the disease as medical services start to become overwhelmed. That tells us it has reached a certain level of seriousness, and kinda gives us a lower bound to its danger (at least to a population which has never been exposed before). But it does not give us an upper bound. We dont know if left to itself matters would only get a little worse, or a lot worse. We dont know whether the efforts of authorities to halt it were effective, or pretty useless (and it stopped by itself).

It strikes me that the assumed R0, the number of new cases which on average each patient then gives rise to, could be quite seriouly out. If half of all cases are too minor to notice, then the replication rate could be double that assumed. Which in one respect might not matter, because we are mostly worried about the subset of cases which become serious and how fast these are growing (we dont care nearly so much how many cases there are which just require a fortnight in bed, or even less). I dont know the ramifications of a serious under estimate in R0. Or even a serious overestimate if there are twice as many cases as we believe but we are measuring the spread correctly, maybe it doesnt spread nearly as fast as is assumed, so is actually easier to control than we believe. But if we are getting this wrong, then modelling of likely future cases will be wrong.

Dr on radio just said not to worry about people who have it but get no symptoms, because they wont pass it on. So maybe we should be looking at a model with a R0 of 4 instead of 2, but half those resulting cases never become serious or pass it on. But they will be building up resistance.

We're bombarded with number of people tested, positive test numbers and number of fatalities. I don't think I've ever seen a number of positive Covid-19 patients in the hospital. This number is important. I think the US health system is based upon just a tiny percent maybe like 3% of the population requiring healthcare at any one time and they will require care of course, but I doubt there is much excess capacity.

 

[d3ofol_griffin]

Maybe this is why it feels like the moments before a hurricane hits.

 

[Jason]

Ah, but thats the point. If it is really the case that half of the population have had it already, then we are already well on the way to having herd immunity and it being quite unlikely there will be any significant recurrence. Certainly not one more serious than usual winter flu.

Authorities have so far all taken steps to halt the disease as medical services start to become overwhelmed. That tells us it has reached a certain level of seriousness, and kinda gives us a lower bound to its danger (at least to a population which has never been exposed before). But it does not give us an upper bound. We dont know if left to itself matters would only get a little worse, or a lot worse. We dont know whether the efforts of authorities to halt it were effective, or pretty useless (and it stopped by itself).

It strikes me that the assumed R0, the number of new cases which on average each patient then gives rise to, could be quite seriouly out. If half of all cases are too minor to notice, then the replication rate could be double that assumed. Which in one respect might not matter, because we are mostly worried about the subset of cases which become serious and how fast these are growing (we dont care nearly so much how many cases there are which just require a fortnight in bed, or even less). I dont know the ramifications of a serious under estimate in R0. Or even a serious overestimate if there are twice as many cases as we believe but we are measuring the spread correctly, maybe it doesnt spread nearly as fast as is assumed, so is actually easier to control than we believe. But if we are getting this wrong, then modelling of likely future cases will be wrong.

Dr on radio just said not to worry about people who have it but get no symptoms, because they wont pass it on. So maybe we should be looking at a model with a R0 of 4 instead of 2, but half those resulting cases never become serious or pass it on. But they will be building up resistance.

Dandy. I'm not disagreeing with you. The but is that we just don't know. No nation knows how many in their population have had Coronavirus in a mild form or with no symptoms. Answers could transform our response.

My thought is that we need a test say in a few streets in a London suburb where we aim to test everyone and begin to get some answers. The test we actually need is not for Coronavirus itself but for antibodies for Coronavirus, ie whether people have had it. I don't think such a test exists yet though presumably it must be coming.

Herd immunity is likely to be at the level of something like two-thirds. Given that the old and people with pre-existing conditions can become so very ill it is hard to see how we could get to this sort of level without horrors. However it may be that it is not in any meaningful sense our choice but something that is happening. We do need to know what is happening.

 

[Jason]

In UK just released mathematical modelling from Imperial College London. Key points:

* The peak demand on intensive care is likely to be reached in 2.5 to 3 weeks. It should then decline.
* The NHS will be able to meet the level of peak demand predicted.
* The previous least bad scenario for deaths has been 20,000. While this is possible there is hope that it could be lower, even significantly lower.
* Getting to grips with the virus will require massive testing and contact tracing.

This is some sort of glimmer of hope.

 

[chrisrobin]

ITS GOING TO RUN ITSELF IN TO THE GROUND BY EASTER IS THE HOPE OF THE PRESIDENT.
after that its

THE ECONOMY STUPID

which to Trump is more important than peoples lives.

 

[dandelion]

Dandy. I'm not disagreeing with you. The but is that we just don't know. No nation knows how many in their population have had Coronavirus in a mild form or with no symptoms.

I agree we dont know. And actually, it makes sense for government to proceed on a worst case scenario. But it might not be nearly so bad as is being widely touted.

The test we actually need is not for Coronavirus itself but for antibodies for Coronavirus,

Entirely agree, but the news talking about timescales on this did not seem encouraging. We really need it now, so that people can go back to work immediately they are identified as clear.

ITS GOING TO RUN ITSELF IN TO THE GROUND BY EASTER IS THE HOPE OF THE PRESIDENT.

My impression is the US is well behind the UK, so if he is talking about the US, then I think he is rather optimistic. In the UK there is at least the possibility we might be getting a decline in a month. Be quite a while before it goes back to normal though

 

[Thikn2velvet1]

ITS GOING TO RUN ITSELF IN TO THE GROUND BY EASTER IS THE HOPE OF THE PRESIDENT.
after that its

THE ECONOMY STUPID

which to Trump is more important than peoples lives.

That a bogus position. You are dead wrong. It is absolutely correct of Trump to question how long we are going to crush our economy to fight CV. That is a question that must be asked and debated. That question is being debated everywhere and Trump gave it a public voice.

Anyone can virtue signal, it is easy. Try telling a restaurant owner that his life’s dream must be destroyed to help out.

 

[Industrialsize]

That a bogus position. You are dead wrong. It is absolutely correct of Trump to question how long we are going to crush our economy to fight CV. That is a question that must be asked and debated. That question is being debated everywhere and Trump gave it a public voice.

Anyone can virtue signal, it is easy. Try telling a restaurant owner that his life’s dream must be destroyed to help out.

How many lives is the restaurant owner's dream worth?

 

[Thikn2velvet1]

How many lives is the restaurant owner's dream worth?

And there is the debate. And we should have that debate.

 

[Industrialsize]

And there is the debate. And we should have that debate.

The debate is only worth having if it's YOUR life that you are willing to give up for the restaurant owner's dream.

 

[d3ofol_griffin]

Crush the dreams of the restaurant owner or crash the hospital systems. I don't know neither one has happened yet.

 

[Thikn2velvet1]

The debate is only worth having if it's YOUR life that you are willing to give up for the restaurant owner's dream.

Why do you get things wrong so often? SOCIETY has the debate through government and decides who to favor. “ Here is what we can do, here is what we cannot do.”

Sheesh.

 

[keenobserver]

Crush the dreams of the restaurant owner or crash the hospital systems. I don't know neither one has happened yet.

Anecdotal - it's happening to restaurant owners. Some local pubs converted to carry-out / curb service / delivery and are doing okay. Of course this cuts business for other already existing carry out / delivery places. The upscale dine ins are having a real struggle. Their menu does not adopt well to packing it up to go. Booze by the glass sales make up a big chunk of profits there and that is gone now too. This is not unique to my area but it is jolting to see. The landscape will change in many ways for good after this - and we don't know when the lock down phase will end.

Obviously all other shops are affected as well - my local newsstand / bookseller is now closed. He's ready to retire and has been trying to sell his business for sometime. He said he had a really nice fall and Christmas season and that people were coming back to buy books in person rather than on line. He also tells me newspaper sales have been moving up - especially out of town papers like the NYTimes and Washington Post given the political turmoil of the last three years. That part of his business will likely migrate to on line sales, but it was nice that brick and mortar shops were turning around somewhat after years of decline brought on by on line retail. I'm guessing he will just shut down after the dust on this settle, sell the building for space, not an established business now.

Any number of these issues would occur without the pandemic, change is accelerating - everywhere. Still it is amazing to me that suddenly people are fine with killing a segment or two of the population because they get in the way of making money for turds like Trump and the big corporations. Liberty University is ordering teachers and students back to class - or else - all for lying douche bag Jerry Falwell, Jr. can 'own the libs.' Absolutely amazing.

Once again, when the test of character comes, so called conservatives and religious zealots fail miserably.
Turds - all of them.

 

[Jason]

The global fall in GDP is going to be huge. This means poorer health outcomes, and it will certainly mean more deaths. We are looking at millions dying for very the next 30 years because of the decisions that have already been taken.

The point that must be kept in mind is that we have the moral dilemma of a balance taken against a background of a lack of information.

The UK's policy is determined by not overwhelming our health service. I think we have a policy for the next two years (the duration of our emergency Coronavirus Act) where we will apply the level of social distancing required to keep the number of sick within the capacity of the NHS. This will mean I think that in three to six weeks we will see a relaxation of the lockdown. We have to get our economy moving, because if the economy crashes people will die.

 

[keenobserver]

More turds - Fox News’ Brit Hume: It’s ‘Entirely Reasonable’ the Elderly Would Want to Die to Save Economy

Texas' lieutenant governor suggests grandparents are willing to die for US economy

Trump to New York: You’ve Been Mean to Me, Drop Dead

 

[d3ofol_griffin]

More turds - Fox News’ Brit Hume: It’s ‘Entirely Reasonable’ the Elderly Would Want to Die to Save Economy

Texas' lieutenant governor suggests grandparents are willing to die for US economy

Trump to New York: You’ve Been Mean to Me, Drop Dead[/QUOTE

Maybe they think, we should use this opportunity to 'thin the herd'.