Could She Reach the Top in 2012? You Betcha

[B_VinylBoy]

The same way you piss and moan about Obama, right?
Turnabout is fair play.

 

[B_OtterJoq]

the mere fact that she has you turds pissng in moaning says that she indeed could.

She doesn't have me pissing and moaning; she has me laughing and pointing.

Fuck you.

 

[XXLJohn1955]

"Pissing and moaning" -- No...bewildered and stupified that a great number of Americans like yourself can be so dense.

 

[B_VinylBoy]

"Pissing and moaning" -- No...bewildered and stupified that a great number of Americans like yourself can be so dense.

That's all they can do. They view everything through divisive labels and rhetoric and foolishly think everyone else does exactly the same thing. Hence why some of the uneducated Conservatives on this board will always equate something the opposition talks about as "pissing and moaning".

 

[cocktaste]

Well, Americans did vote George Bush in for a second term. Hell, they re-elected Reagan, an idiot, who slept through his entire administration, and then was full blown losing his marbles 5 years in. George Bush was Ronald Reagan 2.0. Never underestimate the stupidity of the American electorate. The Tea Party will be running the show, and Palin is their candidate of choice. I happen to think Mr. "lucky underpants" Romney could get the nomination. Oh lord, a Mormon!

 

[b.c.]

She won't run. She's got a great gig now with the celebrity circuit and -most importantly - political candidates sucking up to her for her endorsement.

Ghost written books bringing in a mint, ghost written Twitter posts --- she does absolutely no heavy lifting, doesn't have to make any decisions other than which gigs to accept and which to turn down --- life can't get much better for her.

Nah. Mere deflection. Trying to throw her detractors off the scent. Guaranteed she'll run. Very high probability she'd win. One has to look at the current demographics of the American voter.

For one, there's the highly motivated and politically active Tea Party set and those right of center who'd sooner embrace an "aww shucks" kind of political naivete rather than any semblance of someone who'd look you in the eye and tell you the cold hard facts about our economy, for example, and what needs to be done, especially if you don't particularly like the "looks" of messenger in the first place.

A Palin would be able to look off "yonder" and respond to a question about the budget with a "down homesy gosh darn tootin" kind of bullshit response. but that'd sell to "folks", at least, who'd rather bullshit than reality; better so than an Obama giving the cold hard facts on the issue. Besides, he's too "arrogant".

So yes, they'd just as soon send a do-nothing airhead to the White House. Didn't they send G.W. Bush? And Reagan?

"Well..."

Then there's the other part of the electorate - that larger more silent and usually unmotivated group who, even IF they are more politically astute of the facts (which they apparently aren't, because if they had a clue as to what's really happening they'd get off their asses and get more vocal) they USUALLY don't vote.

On November 2nd, most of these people stayed their asses home. Didn't even go out to vote. Had they showed the same enthusiasm as those of the politically right, results would've been quite different that Tuesday. Look for them to do exactly the same in 2012.

They'll wake up one morning, shuffle on down to their jobs, IF they still have one by then, and by word of mouth they'll learn that, yes, there was and election the night before, and yes Palin is president.

"Well..."

 

[Bbucko]

Sorry, BC, but Palin is a Teabagger spokesmodel and does not have the support of the real GOP power. At this point, all she's got is name recognition and intense support from a very loud, shrill base.

Besides, nothing will GOTV for libs, progressives and moderates everywhere quite like her name on the ballot. And, much though she may try, she will not be able to communicate solely through FNC, FB and Twitter and the glare of a full national press (of all persuasions) will wilt her and expose her every flaw once people start paying attention.

Honestly, right now we have no idea what the sausage-making caucuses and primaries will bring this far back, but at some point she'll be bought out and sidelined by the same crowd who selected Dole over, say, Kemp. The GOP is all about seniority and pecking order: they are intensely hierarchical, and it's simply not yet her turn.

IF GW Bush had been born with any other name, his empty suit would never have been given any consideration. The guy with the biggest cry-towel this cycle is Jeb. He's got an ideal resume and a wonky head for policy details, plus he's got real cred with Latinos (wife, kids, speaks Spanish) and, at least by 2012 standards, is seen as moderate on social issues. But the electorate simply will not forgive him his last name.

I cannot imagine Romney being acceptable, having brought mandated health care reform to MA, Mormonism aside (those are two insurmountable blows, IMO). Huckabee actually has a shot, he has his place in line after impressive showings in 2008, but I just don't see him either. He's excessively pious, fiscally non-conservative and so very regional. He also has a "Willy Horton" problem involving a parolee who wound up killing two cops.

That leaves a second-tier of benchwarmers with no name recognition and little or no place in the pecking order. We'll have a lot to live through, domestically and internationally between now and voting day 2012. Fucking up Afghanistan or Iraq (beyond the disasters they already are), troubles with Iran, Russia or N Korea are certainly not impossible, and economic realignments in the EU might end up impacting us in ways we cannot predict now.

But excluding another massive terror attack or another implosion in our domestic economy, I truly believe there's no one with the experience, charisma and electability to unseat a sitting president.

 

[b.c.]

I think you give the American voter too much credit, Bbucko. Given, your scenario is what should logically follow. But from what I've seen, especially as of late, I wouldn't be surprised to see Porky Pig in the offerings. (Come to think of it....)

 

[B_VinylBoy]

I think you give the American voter too much credit, Bbucko. Given, your scenario is what should logically follow. But from what I've seen, especially as of late, I wouldn't be surprised to see Porky Pig in the offerings.

Newt Gingrich is already in the running. :biggrin1:

 

[Bbucko]

I think you give the American voter too much credit, Bbucko. Given, your scenario is what should logically follow. But from what I've seen, especially as of late, I wouldn't be surprised to see Porky Pig in the offerings. (Come to think of it....)

I probably do, BC. Of course, so much of this actually depends on FNC and Roger Ailes, who seems to employ every Republican honcho except Romney

Like I've said so many times before, it takes a whole perfect-storm of troubles to unseat a POTUS and the next two years seem to be front-loaded with a bad case of national jitters. And aside from the profound gravitas of the office (and a fierce intellect), Obama can haul out that charisma he had so much of in 2008 but which has been MIA ever since. Wouldn't that be a nice change?

Newt Gingrich is already in the running. :biggrin1:

Newt's charisma gap is as big as Rove's. He'll run mostly as a spoiler and to coax the field as far to the right as possible, but I don't see him on a national ticket. His negatives are huge for anyone who actually lived through the 90s.

My best guess is that it'll probably be either yet-another re-tread on Romney's old jalopy, or Huckabee repudiating his 2008 campaign (with all its "compassionate conservative" messaging). Republican don't run dark horses, but with their stakes so high, who knows where it'll end up.

I just can't imagine Palin actually getting there, because she seriously cannot win on the top of the ticket, and I don't see her accepting the chance to be "a warm bucket of piss" when it'll mean such a steep decline in revenue, no real power and being accountable to the "lamestream" media every time she sneezes. Dreams are not reality, even for someone as dominated by magical thinking as she.

 

[pinspotter10]

One more point I want to make about Sarah and why she won't run. She never has and never will have to take a politically unpopular stand if she just keeps playing the celebrity circuit....she can just remain in this aw shucks I'm just one of you role.

If I had to put a dollar down at this point on who the Republican nominee would be I'd go for Jeb Bush.

I know, I know, I know...

But name recognition counts so much (hello Ms. Murkowski), another two years will have gone by, I could see where he could charm the media, and the rest of the field so weak that I just can't see anyone else coming to the fore.

I think the nomination is Jeb's if BHO is not riding an economic upsurge.

Side comment: in 2008 what with the battle between HRC and BHO, I really felt the voters chose the candidate. As a political news junkie I can't wait to see how the 2012 Republican race unfolds.

 

[Tee&A]

I remember thinking,"I hope they nominate G.W Bush because the country will never be stupid enought to elect him."

And I as well. I was--quite literally--in a state of shock for about 2 months after GWB was elected President of the United States of America. I wholeheartedly believed that when it came down to brass tacks the American people wouldn't dare put him in such a position. I was wrong.

What Sarah Palin represents is terrifying: the "other side". An appealing, attractive ball of fluff, wrapped in a whimsical, pretty package and topped with a pink bow. Never mind that her education is piecemeal. Nevermind that one couldn't imagine her debating an error on her JCPenney receipt with a Customer Service Clerk, much less a budget to Congress. Nevermind that that she is--admittedly--so far removed from the other 49 states that she walks around in blissful, Alaskan ignorance. None of that matters. What matters is she is the Great White Hope, the "Mama Grizzly", the anti-Obama, and thus what the Republicans feel is the best chance of getting a Republican voted back into office in 2012 whether they know she'll fuck things up royally or not. And I resent the hell out of that. If the Republicans are so willing to bend me over and screw me for the next 4 years all in the name of their "ideals", well, I say "fuck you" to them, too.

Is this honestly the best the Pachyderms have to offer? A Prom Queen? A fisherwoman with a bootleg education and not even enough tenacity to finish a full term as governor? Show me a viable, qualified Republican female candidate and I will honestly research her and consider her if I feel she's the right person for the job and the best qualified candidate. But Sarah Palin? If that's the best the Repubs can do, they don't have to worry about having another token black next to Michael Steele clapping and cheesing for the camera at the next RNC convention .

 

[houtx48]

I remember thinking,"I hope they nominate G.W Bush because the country will never be stupid enough to elect him." .............That seems to be a quetion about that elect part.

 

[b.c.]

I probably do, BC. Of course, so much of this actually depends on FNC and Roger Ailes, who seems to employ every Republican honcho except Romney

Like I've said so many times before, it takes a whole perfect-storm of troubles to unseat a POTUS and the next two years seem to be front-loaded with a bad case of national jitters. And aside from the profound gravitas of the office (and a fierce intellect), Obama can haul out that charisma he had so much of in 2008 but which has been MIA ever since. Wouldn't that be a nice change?

The variables in this case are different. Though Obama won by overwhelming support across most demographics (races, age groups, and gender) we still have an African American president who has had difficulty getting his message through a continuous cacophony of mischaracterizations and hate based rhetoric. Too many people, I think, are too receptive of all of this.

Newt's charisma gap is as big as Rove's. He'll run mostly as a spoiler and to coax the field as far to the right as possible, but I don't see him on a national ticket. His negatives are huge for anyone who actually lived through the 90s.

My best guess is that it'll probably be either yet-another re-tread on Romney's old jalopy, or Huckabee repudiating his 2008 campaign (with all its "compassionate conservative" messaging). Republican don't run dark horses, but with their stakes so high, who knows where it'll end up.

I just can't imagine Palin actually getting there, because she seriously cannot win on the top of the ticket, and I don't see her accepting the chance to be "a warm bucket of piss" when it'll mean such a steep decline in revenue, no real power and being accountable to the "lamestream" media every time she sneezes. Dreams are not reality, even for someone as dominated by magical thinking as she.

I guess I just go with gut feelings on these kind of things, based on too many experience with the disappointing ignorance of a vast number of Americans regarding these issues, and so far my gut feelings (re. who'd win the presidency, re. Nov. 2nd) has been pretty spot on. My gut feeling says Palin will be the Republican nominee for president. And if she isn't it'll only be as the result of some compromise or back room deal in which she'll be a major player.

I'd say a 70% probability that she will be the nominee running against whomever.

Regardless of who runs or who wins, I'd say 85% probability that the next president will not be of the same demographics as the first 43.

 

[B_Marius567]

I will never vote for Palin

sorry