Crossed fingers...

Discussion in 'Politics' started by naughty, Nov 3, 2008.

  1. naughty

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    Workin' up a good pot of mad!
    I dont know if anyone has noticed but when most black people are asked if they feel Senator Obama will win they tend to be a bit reticent to say yes. Even DL Hughley on his show on Saturday said that he was terrified that some crazy trick would happen and everyone who voted for him would wake up the next morning and ask what happened. I have my own theories about this what do you think?
     
  2. B_Nick4444

    B_Nick4444 New Member

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    this is one possible scenario mitigating against an Obama victory


    • OCTOBER 29, 2008
    New Voters Back Obama; Turnout Unsure

    By SARA MURRAY




    Young and returning voters continue to flock to Sen. Barack Obama, but the potentially game-changing question of how heavily they will turn out for Tuesday's election still lingers.
    The New Voters

    A new poll shows that 69% of new and returning voters plan to vote for Sen. Obama, up from 61% just a month ago. In the survey, conducted by The Wall Street Journal, NBC News and the MySpace networking Web site, just 27% said they planned to vote for Sen. John McCain. (See full results.)
    The poll includes Americans who are eligible to vote for the first time, as well as lapsed voters who skipped the previous presidential election but are registered now. The largest movement from last month was among such lapsed voters; 74% of them now say they favor Sen. Obama, a 21-percentage-point gain.

    There still are warning signs, however, that new voters -- traditionally difficult to get to the polls on Election Day -- could be unreliable. Just 66% of those voters said they would definitely vote this year, compared with 90% of registered voters overall. Additionally, only six in 10 said they were very interested in the election, compared with eight in 10 of the larger electorate.
    But the level of support in this bloc of voters is high enough for Sen. Obama that even a relatively good turnout could dictate the outcome of the election, say the pollsters who conducted the new survey.
    Peter Hart, a Democratic pollster who conducted the survey with Republican Neil Newhouse, noted that if former Vice President Al Gore had been able to garner a comparable share of the youth vote in 2000, he would have won the election.

    One cautionary note comes in swing states like Florida, where early turnout of young voters lags behind in comparison to all those who are casting ballots early. As of Tuesday, only 10% of the vote was cast by those 30 years or younger, even though that subset makes up 17% of the electorate, according to the Florida Division of Elections.
    In the survey, Democratic Sen. Obama's supporters expressed a higher interest in the election than those backing Republican Sen. McCain. Seven in 10 Obama voters said they would definitely vote, compared with 62% of McCain supporters.
    "The challenge now for the Obama campaign is not one of persuasion," said Mr. Newhouse, the Republican pollster. "The challenge to the Obama campaign is what we call stimulus; it's getting them out to vote."
    Three-quarters of those surveyed are young voters registering for the first time, and Sen. Obama has been working to mobilize such voters since his primary fight against Sen. Hillary Clinton. Coming into the general election with an expansive grassroots operation, the campaign has since been using a significant war chest for youth-targeted advertising campaigns. The push includes ads in videogames, college papers and alternative weekly publications.
    Meantime, Sen. McCain's campaign has made recent stops at colleges in an effort to reach out to younger voters. Tuesday, the campaign deployed running mate Gov. Sarah Palin to both Pennsylvania State University and Shippensburg University in Shippensburg, Pa.

    Washington Wire

    The survey found that new voters agree with the overall population that the country isn't in good shape -- roughly eight in 10 said the country is on the wrong track, on par with findings of a national Journal/NBC News survey this month -- but they are less pessimistic about the future. Among new voters, 64% said the country will be better off in four years.
    A significant concern for the first-time and returning voters was increasing the number of good-paying jobs, which 44% said should be the next president's top priority.
    The poll, conducted Friday though Sunday, combined 619 telephone and online surveys nationwide and had a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
     
  3. Principessa

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    I've noticed this as well. I have been guilty of responding to the question, 'do you think Obama will win', with "God I hope so" or "from your lips to God's ears," rather than a resounding, "yes, of course he will win." I think it's because after the last eight years we as a nation have lost faith in the voting system. Also as black people we have centuries worth of getting screwed over by the white man still on our mind.

    :unitedstates: I want Barack H. Obama to win the election. There I said it. :unitedstates:

    I voted for him two weeks ago and I still pray nothing went wrong with that touch screen thingy and that my vote really counted. :cool:

    FWIW: It's supposed to rain in the Atlanta metro area on election day. Historically people of all colors stay home when it rains on election day.
     
    #3 Principessa, Nov 3, 2008
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2008
  4. B_VinylBoy

    B_VinylBoy New Member

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    They're just trying to remain optimistic knowing full well that anything can happen.

    I know the majority of votes in the city & state I'm in will go for Obama. Most urban areas where there is a large minority base or balanced racial mix will also vote Obama. These areas tend to vote for the Democratic nominee regardless. However, I realize that people who share my views are not the only ones voting.

    And when was the last time there was a voting controversy as big as 2000? This isn't a complaint about who stole the election... it's about not getting your hopes too high because despite what's going on now ANYTHING can happen. We were all sure that Gore was going to win. Alas, he wins a popular vote but not the electoral vote. That's only happened one other time in history. The same fate CAN happen to Obama, as much as we want to admit it or not. He certainly has the popularity, and polls do seem to go in his favor. But I cannot truly "exhale" until this whole thing is over.
     
  5. Principessa

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    QFT! :cool:
     
  6. bobabooey69

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    African American's have had the rug pulled under them countless times.
    Their hesitation is understandable, as they don't want to jinx themselves.
    But if the turnout is any indicator, their quiet strength will prevail this election.

    edit: damn predictive text iphone! Gah!
     
    #6 bobabooey69, Nov 3, 2008
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2008
  7. canuck_pa

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    There has been discussion in the press about the "Bradley Effect" where Bradley was ahead in the polls but when people got into the voting booth they voted differently. I would think that Obama's handlers would be cautiously optimistic.

    To my southern neighbours, vote early and vote often!
     
  8. mindseye

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    Whatsa matta chu? Don't you want bottled hot water for dehydrated babies? ;)
     
  9. stratedude

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    In your mind? How did it get there? We know it isn't a first hand account - you haven't been alive for centuries. Could it be that the thoughts of "getting screwed over by the white man" in your mind were PUT there by another person who did not experience it first hand? Are these alleged white men still around? How many of those screwed over are still around and to what degree have they been screwed over? We know they weren't former slaves, right? Could the advances we have made be overshadowed by artificial thoughts in our minds of getting screwed over?

    What would the world be like if we stopped telling innocent bystanders that they have been screwed over by people that no longer exist? What freedom of thought we would have! What peace and harmony we could live in! Will liberals ever let this happen?

    Well it wouldn't matter in Georgia anyway. Now a big swing state like Ohio or Pensylvania would be disasterous for Obama. Where is the resolve?
     
  10. D_Fiona_Farvel

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    The American apartheid system officially (legally) ended exactly 44 years ago, which is, going from NJ's profile, two years before she was born. It is safe to say that she, and others of her generation, experienced everything she mentioned first hand.

    Artificial thoughts? :confused: De facto racism still exists.
     
  11. MarkLondon

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    Before the results of the 1997 election in the UK which brought Labour under Tony Blair into power after 18 years of conservative rule, there was a great reluctance to appear triumphalist or assume the outcome in advance. Instead, the atmosphere was more of quiet determination and stoicisim.

    Anyway, happy voting, Americans!
     
  12. D_Fiona_Farvel

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    Ok, my friend just said the same thing when I was chatting with her and I thought about this post. She is so not religious, but would like to see her husband home soon. Wish I could post a pic, their baby will be in head to toe Obama wear... yes, someone created an Obama onesie, haha. :smile:
     
  13. Flashy

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    I will be wearing my Underdog onesie to the polls tomorrow. :smile:
     
  14. D_Fiona_Farvel

    D_Fiona_Farvel Account Disabled

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    Anywhere near 52nd and Lexington? :biggrin1:
     
  15. silvertriumph2

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    I have faith!
     
  16. D_Marazion Analdouche

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    I'm wearing my Luke Skywalker underoos.
     
  17. Flashy

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    actually, i think what they will experience if he wins is called "Cognitive Dissonance".

    I use this term because back in 1994, when i was desperately clinging to the hope that my beloved NY Rangers would finally win the Stanley Cup for the first time since 1940, there were articles in the NY papers about what would happen if the Rangers indeed won, and "cognitive dissonance" was the term used...i.e. the joy of winning, the sheer ecstasy, but also surprise and disbelief, combined to form some sort of totally bizarre two-sided mindset...absolute joy and sheer disbelief, each making the other emotion seem totally bizarre...then giving into total confusion when you realize that this distant dream you have been waiting for for so long has happened, and now you have no other purpose :smile:


    Ironically, this makes things worse later on, because now, there are no more excuses once the unbelievable and impossible has happened....now it should happen more often and excuses are not acceptable.


    Strangely, for a large portion of the disenfranchised african american community, this is both one of the best and worst things to happen.

    Best- because it will prove that in America, despite racism, and African American can achieve anything...even be the president.

    Worst- Now, there are no more excuses for failure from that part of the community. MLK's dream will have come true...now, young previously disenfranchised african americans, will have to look in the mirror, and ask what they truly can accomplish, and if they are not, then whose fault is it now?

    for me, the irony is, as a jew, america has gotten a black president before a jewish one...or even a jewish VP.

    but frankly, i don't care, because to me, who is in the white house does not determine if i succeed...there has never been a jew in the white house...and probably wont be for at least another 4 elections ( i see no viable jewish candidates right now) and it has never determined jewish success in america.

    i hope that many of the disenfranchised African americans will use this historic moment to truly stand up and throw off the excuses that have become endemic for failure in a community that everyone knows has the talent and intelligence to succeed, if they choose to.

    Obama will certainly become the next president of the united states...but his arrival does not guarantee the success of his supporters. it guarantees only that the USA for all its problems, guarantees an opportunity to be anything you want to be, regardless of color, and now nobody can deny it.

    so although i will not be voting for Obama (or McCain), from this perspective, Obama's historic election, is something i look forward to ending the nonsense of america as restricted, racist, etc. etc.

    do those problems exist? absolutely. are there racists and mean bigoted people? Yes...but now, even with that, nothing can stop you if you work hard enough in the United States, and even if you don't become president, you can still be a success.

    I think for african americans, this election means the most, and, more importantly, now, it does in fact leave them with the most to prove. It strips away the last impediment to success. the whole "you can only get so far in america" line...the question is....will african americans who have been so disenfranchised, emulate what has made Obama who he is?

    america will have elected an african american president....now there is no reason, why any other african american cannot succeed.

    frankly, i hope this is enough to help reinvigorate the african american population that has gone through such difficulty in recent years...but if this cannot help it move forward, strictly from an inspirational standpoint, before any policy changes, then truly, nothing will.

    because let's face it...ultimately, Obama will not be able to change much on the ground (no president really can)...so what will happen to the young african americans in the failing inner city schools? Waht about the young african american male population beign raised without fathers, beinbg left to the harsh life of the streets? What about the problem of out of wedlock and underage pregnancy, combined with poverty?

    I hope these things can be helped, but let's face it...i do not hold out hope for society...all of society is rapidly disintegrating to a certain degree...it has just been more noticeable in the black community because of the socie-economic problems and racism contributing to the rapid collapse of the social structure...

    i really don't think anything can stop it, whether it is a black president, a white president, or any other type of president...there is only so much a president can do.

    Let's face it...the president is mostly an "inspirational" figurehead....but in the long run, even the most inspirational do nothing but stem the tide while society continues its march to eventual unpleasant conclusions.

    Washington was inspirational, Jefferson was inspirational, Lincoln was insprational, FDR was inspirational, JFK was inspirational...and we are still going to pieces.


    ultiamtely, a president can't really do much in the grand scheme of things. Society and individuals and families that make it up still are the only thing that matters.
     
  18. Flashy

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    nope...I vote in the 80s...but my mommy is taking me out to lunch afterwards, somewhere on Park Avenue South :biggrin1:
     
  19. silvertriumph2

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    On my way to the Polls.....working as an Inspector today...

    Keep the Faith and think positive!!
     
  20. naughty

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    Workin' up a good pot of mad!
    One thing however that I have been saying to a number of people that makes Senator Obama different from many "African Americans" or in reality "Americans descended from African slaves" is that he was born of two free people, one from American and the other from Kenya. He was raised by his mother and his two very grounded middle American white grandparents. He did have the audacity to hope. Regardless of what his exterior looked like he was endowed with that hope by two grandparents and a mother who helped him to realize that he too had just as much right to the "tree of life"as anyone else but he had to work for it. Much of what we see in Black America is generational cultural trauma. There are many who have never had anyone help them realize that they too could have the audacity to hope. They have not had anyone show them the path of hard work and perseverence in achieving their goals. This is something that Black America will have to come to terms with at this point. There are many who in spite of the centuries of psychic damage who have had at least someone or something that helped them to move forward and to achieve. The Black church has served as that something for many. THough I do not agree with the extreme rhetoric of Reverend Dr. Wright I understand that his black liberation theology comes from a place that many may never understand. He too is in need of healing . I hope that at some point it can be. Like it or not however he did help Senator Obama come to terms with many of the issues that he has been confronted with as a black man (be it biracial) in America in a way that his mother or grandparent never could. But as anyone who is a right thinking individual I am sure he is able to take the good he can from what he learned from Dr. Wright and move past the damaged thought process that has held many African Americans at a point of statis here in this country.

    A point was brought up to me from a friend of mine a couple of months ago. We in the black community sometimes joke about someone being of my color but sure not my kind. I think this is a time that African Americans are coming to understand this . We are no longer living in a time when as a segregated group any behavior that one black person presented to the world does not reflect the reality of all. She was appalled when going to Ghana and reflecting at Gorey Island ( A departure point for many of the ancestor of the slaves of the New World) when seeing a number of African "Brothers" cavorting with their white girlfriends their in this place of great pain for African Americans. She had to be reminded that for these men this was all Gorey Island represented , just another site to be seen. These were free african men of free African ancestry and their history was not hers or that of many Americans of African descent. They may have been her color but they sure werent her kind....
     
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