Democratic party 2020 candidate speculation / discussion thread.

[DvdHbsn]

Yes, FOX for sure... but they weren't the only culprits:

Russia and trump
Russia and trump

agreed- that's why I said Fox is pushing Trump's Russia agenda

 

[TexanStar]

O'Rourke holds double-digit lead on Trump in head-to-head matchup: CNN poll

Former Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) leads President Trump by 10 points in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a new CNN–SSRS poll.

The survey released Thursday shows O’Rourke with support from 52 percent of registered voters, compared with Trump's 42 percent. Two percent of voters said they wouldn’t support either candidate, and 4 percent said they had no opinion.

O'Rourke held the widest lead over Trump among other Democratic presidential candidates who were included in the potential matchup.

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2019/images/05/01/rel6d.-.trump.and.2020.pdff

I'm still waiting for another of these polls to come out to see if these results repeat. I've heard some people attribute this to "luck", but I feel like there's something else going on.

I think Beto's kind of occupying territory as the 2nd or 3rd choice candidate behind a large portion of the electorate. More specifically, I think there are a lot of people who would vote for Bernie Sanders who can't support Joe Biden because of issues they have with how things played out under Barack Obama. Similarly, I think there's a lot of people who would support Joe Biden but couldn't bring themselves to vote for Bernie Sanders because they feel he's too liberal / too socialist. But a lot of those same people who feel like Bernie is too socialist/liberal or like Joe is too establishment/moderate are okay with Beto. Not their first choice, but they still see reason to vote for him over Trump.

I think that's what's driving these numbers. Right now Beto's slipping in the primary polls, but If this matchup polling result repeats itself it puts Beto in a better position to leverage electability as one of his big strengths (to basically argue logically that if the most important thing is bringing about a change in this administration that he's the best candidate to deliver it.

I'd already posted one other poll before this one which also had him very favorable in matchups against Trump (it was an older poll, but in that one only he and Joe Biden were polling higher than Trump in Texas). He did even better in the one linked above. Waiting for the next one to come out.

As a reminder, Running with Beto airs on HBO May 28th

 

[TexanStar]

I'm still waiting for another of these polls to come out to see if these results repeat. I've heard some people attribute this to "luck", but I feel like there's something else going on.

I think Beto's kind of occupying territory as the 2nd or 3rd choice candidate behind a large portion of the electorate. More specifically, I think there are a lot of people who would vote for Bernie Sanders who can't support Joe Biden because of issues they have with how things played out under Barack Obama. Similarly, I think there's a lot of people who would support Joe Biden but couldn't bring themselves to vote for Bernie Sanders because they feel he's too liberal / too socialist. But a lot of those same people who feel like Bernie is too socialist/liberal or like Joe is too establishment/moderate are okay with Beto. Not their first choice, but they still see reason to vote for him over Trump.

I think that's what's driving these numbers. Right now Beto's slipping in the primary polls, but If this matchup polling result repeats itself it puts Beto in a better position to leverage electability as one of his big strengths (to basically argue logically that if the most important thing is bringing about a change in this administration that he's the best candidate to deliver it.

I'd already posted one other poll before this one which also had him very favorable in matchups against Trump (it was an older poll, but in that one only he and Joe Biden were polling higher than Trump in Texas). He did even better in the one linked above. Waiting for the next one to come out.

As a reminder, Running with Beto airs on HBO May 28th

One other factor is that primary polling is limited to Democrats, but matchup polling includes Independents and Republicans as well. So one other class of voters are handful of moderate Republicans and Independents who would not vote for Biden or Sanders, but feel comfortable enough to vote for Beto. It's a similar kind of thing as above, but in this case their first choice might be some moderate Republican who's not on the ticket and Beto's a better option to them than Trump even if he's not perfect for them.

Beto did pick up a share of that kind of support in his Senate run against Ted Cruz (Tarrant County, for example, flipped Blue for the senate race, but just had mayoral elections a week back and the Republican incumbent still won, 56% to 42%). These polarizing, far right candidates like Ted Cruz and also Donald Trump expose themselves to vote loss from the center right, but that risk only comes into play when Dems have a more moderate candidate in play (Go Beto Go).

 

[gr8gatsby]

I'm still waiting for another of these polls to come out to see if these results repeat. I've heard some people attribute this to "luck", but I feel like there's something else going on.

I think Beto's kind of occupying territory as the 2nd or 3rd choice candidate behind a large portion of the electorate. More specifically, I think there are a lot of people who would vote for Bernie Sanders who can't support Joe Biden because of issues they have with how things played out under Barack Obama. Similarly, I think there's a lot of people who would support Joe Biden but couldn't bring themselves to vote for Bernie Sanders because they feel he's too liberal / too socialist. But a lot of those same people who feel like Bernie is too socialist/liberal or like Joe is too establishment/moderate are okay with Beto. Not their first choice, but they still see reason to vote for him over Trump.

I think that's what's driving these numbers. Right now Beto's slipping in the primary polls, but If this matchup polling result repeats itself it puts Beto in a better position to leverage electability as one of his big strengths (to basically argue logically that if the most important thing is bringing about a change in this administration that he's the best candidate to deliver it.

I'd already posted one other poll before this one which also had him very favorable in matchups against Trump (it was an older poll, but in that one only he and Joe Biden were polling higher than Trump in Texas). He did even better in the one linked above. Waiting for the next one to come out.

As a reminder, Running with Beto airs on HBO May 28th

Personally, I've lost interest in Beto ... can't explain why but I see him on tv and don't pay attention.

 

[TexanStar]

Personally, I've lost interest in Beto ... can't explain why but I see him on tv and don't pay attention.

That's fine.

Though honestly i haven't seen much of any of the candidates on TV lately. Maybe cuz I skip cable news. Broadcast media kinda focuses on them for a bit when they announce and then forgets about them.

 

[deleted15807]

Personally, I've lost interest in Beto ... can't explain why but I see him on tv and don't pay attention.

I'm paying zero attention. A poodle would be a better president than what we have.

 

[gr8gatsby]

That's fine.

Though honestly i haven't seen much of any of the candidates on TV lately. Maybe cuz I skip cable news. Broadcast media kinda focuses on them for a bit when they announce and then forgets about them.

I think his whole story line in the Senate race against Cruz was fascinating. Even though I feel like he's loosing steam right now I certainly wouldn't count him out in the future.

 

[Klingsor]

I'm paying zero attention. A poodle would be a better president than what we have.

We still have to pick the poodle.

 

[keenobserver]

That's fine.

Though honestly i haven't seen much of any of the candidates on TV lately. Maybe cuz I skip cable news. Broadcast media kinda focuses on them for a bit when they announce and then forgets about them.

Yeah, this - I'm keeping an eye on the field and how each fleshes out his positions and how they are received. Everyone is having their up and down moments with a periodic pothole here and there. Voters are not focused because of the distractions and the distance to the first primaries. It's a long race, frontrunners usually fall at some point, so leads now don't mean a lot, and events outside the campaign will drive things as well. I can see where President Shitwaste (lovely name that popped up on my twitter feed) trying to deny all the investigations may be his own worst enemy if the effort delays them so they explode all at once - Congress, NY state, etc. We will see. Count no one out - except Mayor De Blasio of NYC .

 

[keenobserver]

I think his whole story line in the Senate race against Cruz was fascinating. Even though I feel like he's loosing steam right now I certainly wouldn't count him out in the future.

I would not count him out NOW. The Cruz race was important for a couple reasons - one it shows the depths of disgust even Texas has for the Trump shit and foolishness, second, and most importantly it shows a Democrat, willing to listen and learn as he campaigns can reach red state voters. We CANNOT continue to be the Fly Over party - the folks in the middle have to see Democrats as viable leaders for the whole country. Obama did this better than anyone since, but we need to do it now and for the future. A hard left agenda will have to be sold as doable and affordable or nothing will happen. And the left needs to work for the loaf of bread one slice at a time if that is what it takes to get things done. I know Democratic overtures have been rejected hugely in the Senate and the WH. but we're not going to get there unless we get votes FROM THE MIDDLE.

 

[gr8gatsby]

I would not count him out NOW. The Cruz race was important for a couple reasons - one it shows the depths of disgust even Texas has for the Trump shit and foolishness, second, and most importantly it shows a Democrat, willing to listen and learn as he campaigns can reach red state voters. We CANNOT continue to be the Fly Over party - the folks in the middle have to see Democrats as viable leaders for the whole country. Obama did this better than anyone since, but we need to do it now and for the future. A hard left agenda will have to be sold as doable and affordable or nothing will happen. And the left needs to work for the loaf of bread one slice at a time if that is what it takes to get things done. I know Democratic overtures have been rejected hugely in the Senate and the WH. but we're not going to get there unless we get votes FROM THE MIDDLE.

I think you are so right and completely agree about the cores needed from the middle.

My opinion about Beto's success in Texas is how much Ted Cruz is hated ... even more than Trump.

 

[DvdHbsn]

I think you are so right and completely agree about the cores needed from the middle.

My opinion about Beto's success in Texas is how much Ted Cruz is hated ... even more than Trump.

kind of the point- he STILL LOST to one of THE most hated men in Texas.....

 

[gr8gatsby]

kind of the point- he STILL LOST to one of THE most hated men in Texas.....

True ... and Ted Cruz is one of the most hated men in America, not just Texas

 

[TexanStar]

kind of the point- he STILL LOST to one of THE most hated men in Texas.....

Da fuq?

In what universe is Ted Cruz hated in Texas?

Ted Cruz is a darling of the religious right and the far right wing of the Republican party, political entities which consider Texas a stronghold.

He has a significantly higher approval rating than Senator John Cornyn (the senior senator from Texas).

Both you and @gr8gatsby are conflating national opinions of Ted Cruz with Texas opinions and in a race for statewide office only the Texas ones matter.

And don't get me started on Trump. Trump is loved in huge swaths of this state. I consider Texas "in play" for 2020, but you're smoking some serious crack if you think Trump is hated here in the state he carried 52% to 43%.

You guys need to wake up.

 

[DvdHbsn]

yes- Cruz is loved/like by most Republicans- but 99.9% of everyone else hates him, and Beto couldn't get half of them to the polls- Democrats keep focusing on people who lost in 2018- Beto, Abrams, Gillum (yes voter suppression, etc)- being a recent 'loser' is a hard sell in PA, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin- 4 CRUCIAL states- Texas won't be within 5 points in 20.

 

[gr8gatsby]

Da fuq?

In what universe is Ted Cruz hated in Texas?

Ted Cruz is a darling of the religious right and the far right wing of the Republican party, political entities which consider Texas a stronghold.

He has a significantly higher approval rating than Senator John Cornyn (the senior senator from Texas).

Both you and @gr8gatsby are conflating national opinions of Ted Cruz with Texas opinions and in a race for statewide office only the Texas ones matter.

And don't get me started on Trump. Trump is loved in huge swaths of this state. I consider Texas "in play" for 2020, but you're smoking some serious crack if you think Trump is hated here in the state he carried 52% to 43%.

You guys need to wake up.

I was just stressing the opinion thta America hate Cruz ... seems obvious, he did run for president in the recent past and received no favor. I think America discredited him when he read Dr. Seuss in the senate chamber...

 

[keenobserver]

I was just stressing the opinion thta America hate Cruz ... seems obvious, he did run for president in the recent past and received no favor. I think America discredited him when he read Dr. Seuss in the senate chamber...

Be careful, you are using sound logic, and that is always risky. Consider the clown car that was the GOP field in 2016. They were all pretty unlikeable. There seemed at times to be a contest to see who could be the most hurtful to people who depend on the social safety net, and a hatred of anyone who thinks saving the planet is a decent thing to do. Nearly all of the candidates were cartoonish-ly evil, rude, homophobic or just plain stupid. It is the new DNA of the GOP. Trump was the most cartoonish of them all as well as racist and a sexual predator. He had the highest negatives of the entire field. Yet, here we are.

Cruz embodies what the hard right likes, a sneering meanness draped in religious hubris and a dash of pompous arrogance. Texas has been solidly GOP for a long time. That Beto did so well is telling because I feel the issues he had to overcome in terms of the mindset of a lot of Texas voters was impressive. No, he didn't win, but he played well and we will see if that translates or if he can "grow" into a national candidate. The old norms are cracking all over on both sides of the aisle.

Yes, reading DR. Seuss was discrediting, but so was "grab their pussy" talk from Trump. For the anti-abortion crowd, it does not matter nor does it for the cut taxes crowd. AS an electorate America is pretty fucked up.

 

[TexanStar]

Biden Predicts Republicans Will Start Working With Democrats After the Election, Which Is Also What He Predicted in 2012

Why is this imbecile polling so well? Goddamn name recognition.

 

[DvdHbsn]

Biden Predicts Republicans Will Start Working With Democrats After the Election, Which Is Also What He Predicted in 2012

Why is this imbecile polling so well? Goddamn name recognition.

all the Democrats have to say things like this- to give people hope that the 2 parties can work together again- to make it seem like they can bridge the divide, Democrats always try to run on hope, Republicans on division and fear.

 

[TexanStar]

all the Democrats have to say things like this-

No they don't.

to give people hope that the 2 parties can work together again- to make it seem like they can bridge the divide, Democrats always try to run on hope,

Hope and idiocy aren't mutually exclusive.

Republicans on division and fear.

That itself is a divisive statement btw

"I promise to rise above the fray and treat the opposition with respect, unlike my despicable asshole of an opponent!"