Thanks Cal. Let's look at this:
- "I have seen a few footlong cocks in my time" (paraphrased quote from some LPSG members in various threads).
- Let's say "few" means three. That's being conservative.
- Let's say "footlong" means 10 inches or more erect. That's being conservative too.
- Let's say Silvertip's stats are too harsh, and instead of 1 in 500,000 being 10 inches, we'll be generous and say it's FIVE times that number, 1 in 100,000. That's also being extremely conservative.
So statistically speaking, in order to see three "footlong" cocks, you would not only have to had met 300,000 men, not only seen 300,000 men naked, but you would have (statistically) had to have seen 300,000 men naked AND erect.
And that's giving every doubt in your favour with the overly-conservative figures above.
Does that put this kind of ludicrous claim into perspective?
As you know, I share your attitude of reasoned skepticism toward these claims, but your statistical reasoning is erroneous. If we assume that one man in 100,000 has a cock of ten inches' length or greater, that does not mean that to meet one, you would have to see 100,000 men's cocks. In fact, the sentence-form "To find one, you would have to see ___ men's cocks" is senseless no matter what number you put in the blank.
What you
can say is that in order for the chance of your finding such a one to rise above a particular value, there is a certain minimum number that you would have to sample (assuming random selection), or that if you randomly sampled 100,000 men, there is a certain probability that at least one of them would have a penis of ten inches' length or greater, on the given assumptions. If 1 in 100,000 has a penis in that range, then for any randomly selected man, the probability that his penis will not be in that range is 99,999/100,000 or 0.99999. If you repeat the sampling 100,000 times, then the chance that none of the men will have a penis in that range is approximately* 0.99999 to the 100,000th power. If I've done my calculations correctly (with the help of an on-line logarithmic calculator), the resulting figure is approximately 0.95. That means that
even if you look at 100,000 guys picked at random, the probability that one of them will have a penis over ten inches long is still only 5%. It's far more improbable than even you imagined!
*I say "approximately" because this calculation does not make the assumption that you sample 100,000 unique individuals: the same guy could get picked twice. To add the assumption that 100,000 are sampled uniquely, you would have to specify what the total population is from which you are sampling and the calculations would get more complicated.
If I've made any error in my calculations, I hope that someone with a better command than mine of the pertinent mathematics will give the correct calculations and results.