Donald trump leads a new republican presidential nationwide poll

[jaap_stam]

The good news is she doesn't need Ohio which you can't count on and was responsible for giving the planet the Reign of Error that was the George W. Bush administration.

Republicans have a massive electoral map problem that has nothing to do with Donald Trump

if Clinton wins Florida and carries the 19 states (plus D.C.) that have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each of the last six elections, she will be the 45th president. It's that simple.

Here's what that map would look like:

View attachment 477225​

It's like Settlers of Cataan, that map

 

[rbkwp]

ohh dear taint fear ..what a world to look fwd to
and i dont even think i want Hills to win either, ha, how about THAT???

May 03, 2016

NYTimes.com »
Breaking News Alert
May 03, 2016

BREAKING NEWS

Donald Trump has won Indiana. The result makes him the overwhelming favorite to clinch the nomination in June.

Tuesday, May 3, 2016 7:05 PM EDT
Donald J. Trump won Indiana’s Republican primary on Tuesday, moving him closer to claiming the party’s presidential nomination and delivering a devastating blow to Senator Ted Cruz and other Republicans hoping to stop him.
Mr. Cruz had pinned his hopes on Indiana, which seemed to offer one of his best chances to deny Mr. Trump the delegates needed to secure the nomination before the party convention in July.
Read more »

 

[deleted15807]

ohh dear taint fear ..what a world to look fwd to
and i dont even think i want Hills to win either, ha, how about THAT???

May 03, 2016

NYTimes.com »
Breaking News Alert
May 03, 2016

BREAKING NEWS

Donald Trump has won Indiana. The result makes him the overwhelming favorite to clinch the nomination in June.

Tuesday, May 3, 2016 7:05 PM EDT
Donald J. Trump won Indiana’s Republican primary on Tuesday, moving him closer to claiming the party’s presidential nomination and delivering a devastating blow to Senator Ted Cruz and other Republicans hoping to stop him.
Mr. Cruz had pinned his hopes on Indiana, which seemed to offer one of his best chances to deny Mr. Trump the delegates needed to secure the nomination before the party convention in July.
Read more »

A new LOW has been hit in American politics, a carnival barker for president.

 

[rbkwp]

yes agree, unfortunately

sort of decided it was an inevitability?-ish, soooo basically almost resigned to the fact? truth be known?


A new LOW has been hit in American politics, a carnival barker for president.

 

[braalian]

Hillary better pull her shit together.....

 

[keenobserver]

A new LOW has been hit in American politics, a carnival barker for president.

We've had them before - although he is the ultimate expression of that phrase to date.

 

[933295]

Back home!

I joke But in seriousness, "truthfulness" is not the goal of the game he - or most politicians play. The game is to say whatever necessary to win the most votes. Trump started his run as a protest/troll candidate of sorts - and he's run in earlier elections. I imagine his goal at the beginning was to expose himself to more business opportunities - you wouldn't believe how much foreign money is laundered through Super PACs. This whole thing just snowballed (beyond even his wildest imagination, I'm sure) as he just happened be the right persona at the right time to expose how disaffected the GOP rank and file really was with the status quo.

In the historical sense, all of this nonsense is normal. A Constitution, and a political landscape, cannot remain static beyond a few generations. Look at how the Roman Republic transitioned into monarchy. All it takes is enough widespread economic pain and a sufficiently wealthy, military (or police) supported person bold enough to "cross the Rubicon" and the US goes the same way.

You're right of course. I don't like Trump or Clinton but Clinton still has a huge Democrat support structure in most major cities. This is just about numbers. The dissatisfied rust belt white males make up the majority of Trump's new voters. He already has the southern white vote and pockets of conservatives around the country, especially in Orange County, CA. But the Democratic machine is much more organized than Trump's people. This tug of war between the conservatives/working class white males and the so-called liberals goes back in modern times to Richard Nixon. Reagan was able to get the complete support of the working class whites in the mid-west, but I don't think there are enough of them left to really overcome Clintons numbers.

 

[Bardox]

I've said this before and I'll say it again. If you think you know what will happen in the fall in a race between Hilary Clinton VS Donald Trump, You have not been paying attention.

 

[deleted15807]

A troubling(very) prospect. It does explain why every problem can be fixed with two sentence blunt force tools. 6th graders may be challenged to understand more complex problems and solutions aka climate change.

More than 40 percent of Americans have only basic literacy skills. Candidates need to be able to talk to them.
Donald Trump speaks like a sixth-grader. All politicians should.​

 

[rbkwp]

the way Trump licked Cruz A after the win,looked like he needs him as a VP, just thinking
esp after calling him such less than 24 hrs before ..

anything/everything with Trumps name on/around it is fair game for mockery
wonder if its ever going to adopt an attitude abve a 6th grader ...


a pparently
hereford cattle can adapt itself to most anything ..

 

[Bardox]

So when Trump began his run, I told my brother, who has been a Trump supporter from the beginning, that Trump didn't stand a chance. I said, "There's no way. It would take an act of god for Trump to win the nomination. It's not going to happen." So this morning my brother sends me a text saying "Ask and you shall receive. Are you going to vote against the will of god now?" to which I replied, "I have it on good authority that Athena is a Clinton supporter. You going against the will of Athena?" Not the last I'm going to hear from him today...

 

[wallyj84]

I've said this before and I'll say it again. If you think you know what will happen in the fall in a race between Hilary Clinton VS Donald Trump, You have not been paying attention.

I think if the demographics in America were just slightly more skewed white, Trump would win. As it stands there are too many non-white voters that he's turned off who will vote for his opponent in the general election.

But you're right. This is the year political common sense died. Maybe Trump will be able to use divisions between the black/hispanic/Asian communities to break up the Democrats lock on the minority vote. If that happens, it changes the entire political landscape. I don't think that will happen, but it might.

I've said this before, but it bears repeating. I'm less concerned with Trump than who comes after him. Because unless something changes in America that revitalizes the middle class, there is just going to be another Trump in about four years.

 

[Klingsor]

Donald Trump speaks like a sixth-grader.

Of course. He has the emotional maturity of a six-grader.

 

[TexanStar]

But you're right. This is the year political common sense died. Maybe Trump will be able to use divisions between the black/hispanic/Asian communities to break up the Democrats lock on the minority vote. If that happens, it changes the entire political landscape. I don't think that will happen, but it might.

There's not a "lock" on those votes. 73% of Asian Americans voted for Barack Obama. Only 31% voted for Bill Clinton. Both are Democrats.

The difference is how the Republican party is talking about race particularly since Sept 11th. They're increasingly using rhetoric that drives minorities away and Trump is a representative of that issue, not a correction to it. They're putting out a very clear "we don't like minorities" vibe at the same time that they question why more minorities don't vote for them.

 

[wallyj84]

There's not a "lock" on those votes. 73% of Asian Americans voted for Barack Obama. Only 31% voted for Bill Clinton. Both are Democrats.

The difference is how the Republican party is talking about race particularly since Sept 11th. They're increasingly using rhetoric that drives minorities away and Trump is a representative of that issue, not a correction to it. They're putting out a very clear "we don't like minorities" vibe at the same time that they question why more minorities don't vote for them.

That's true. Asians and Hispanics aren't a historical lock like the black vote is. But even though I mentioned them in the post, they weren't who I meant when I wrote about breaking up the minority vote. Sorry for not putting that clearly. I meant the black vote specifically.

Trump hasn't said anything, at least during this election cycle, about blacks. That's why I think his anti-immigrant stance, if worked correctly, could appeal to some blacks. Combine that with Hillary Clinton's problematic history with race and there is a chance that he could peel off some black voters. Not enough to win the majority of the black vote, but enough to change things in swing states like Ohio.

 

[jaap_stam]

You're right of course. I don't like Trump or Clinton but Clinton still has a huge Democrat support structure in most major cities. This is just about numbers. The dissatisfied rust belt white males make up the majority of Trump's new voters. He already has the southern white vote and pockets of conservatives around the country, especially in Orange County, CA. But the Democratic machine is much more organized than Trump's people. This tug of war between the conservatives/working class white males and the so-called liberals goes back in modern times to Richard Nixon. Reagan was able to get the complete support of the working class whites in the mid-west, but I don't think there are enough of them left to really overcome Clintons numbers.

Given demographic trends, a forward-thinking Republican party would have long ago abandoned the Southern strategy. But then again, by valuing multinational business imperatives over the economic prospects of their own white voter base (or not making an earnest effort to sustain BOTH), they've kind of boxed themselves into an electoral corner. This year's implosion will actually be good for conservatives in the long run, as it will force them to come to terms with the demographic realities of the day.

Clinton will win this election in a fairly straightforward manner, but I think this will also lead to Democrats becoming very complacent. They rely heavily on minority voters, for whom they don't particularly do well when it comes to actual life improvements. Progressivism pretty disproportionately benefits white, middle-upper class educated people (see how Latino and blacks are fleeing "progressive" cities in droves due to being gentrified out), and is culturally fairly exclusionary to non-whites. East Asian and Indian Americans, while prosperous, are generally doing their own thing and only vote Democrat to the extent that their immigration and business interests are preserved.

A revamped conservative movement, which ditches a "white America" mentality and focuses on a functional (ie non-obstructionist) fiscal conservatism, is actually capable of capturing a large proportion of minority voters - a huge percentage actually support social conservative stances on things like abortion and homosexuality. Seriously, if the new GOP makes a genuine effort at offering value they can actually deliver to black, Latino, and Asian voters, they will undercut the Dems, who very clearly take the minority vote for granted.

 

[jaap_stam]

There's not a "lock" on those votes. 73% of Asian Americans voted for Barack Obama. Only 31% voted for Bill Clinton. Both are Democrats.

The difference is how the Republican party is talking about race particularly since Sept 11th. They're increasingly using rhetoric that drives minorities away and Trump is a representative of that issue, not a correction to it. They're putting out a very clear "we don't like minorities" vibe at the same time that they question why more minorities don't vote for them.

Ha, I made a similar note just now. A GOP that targets minority voters with actually beneficial policy would actually push the Dems to the far left and expose them as a party for coastal, limousine liberals...which they kinda already are

 

[TexanStar]

Trump hasn't said anything, at least during this election cycle, about blacks.

"First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me."

Trump doesn't have to say anything about the black community to be offputting if he's saying negative things about other communities. The GOP was mystified about why Asian Americans started breaking so heavily democrat. Compared to white Americans, Asian americans are more likely to have higher education, more likely to be middle class, more likely to identify a religious, etc. GOP looks at them and sees their ideal voter base.

But the Asian American community looks back at the GOP and sees this hate machine that's making all these vitriolic remarks about other minorities and so they shift left.

It's the same thing in other directions. If Trump says stuff about Hispanic immigrants, Asian americans can empathize since so many of them have more recently immigrated. Black americans can empathize since so many of them have had hateful remarks made because of the color of their skin.

Trump can say nothing but nice things about black americans specifically, and still lose the black vote because he's saying mean things about other minority groups. Dunno how long it will take the GOP to learn this. Recent history suggests that they will not learn it and it'll be a constant problem for them until they fuck with election registration rules enough to disenfranchise enough minority voters so that it doesn't affect voting outcomes so much.

Ha, I made a similar note just now. A GOP that targets minority voters with actually beneficial policy would actually push the Dems to the far left and expose them as a party for coastal, limousine liberals...which they kinda already are

GOP can't though. Not as a sudden shift. They've too heartily embraced the targetting of specific minority groups to make any kind of about face and embrace all minorities in any believable kind of way. It'll take them a couple generations at minimum to undo the damage they've wrecked in this regard.

 

[wallyj84]

"First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.

Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me."

Trump doesn't have to say anything about the black community to be offputting if he's saying negative things about other communities. The GOP was mystified about why Asian Americans started breaking so heavily democrat. Compared to white Americans, Asian americans are more likely to have higher education, more likely to be middle class, more likely to identify a religious, etc. GOP looks at them and sees their ideal voter base.

But the Asian American community looks back at the GOP and sees this hate machine that's making all these vitriolic remarks about other minorities and so they shift left.

It's the same thing in other directions. If Trump says stuff about Hispanic immigrants, Asian americans can empathize since so many of them have more recently immigrated. Black americans can empathize since so many of them have had hateful remarks made because of the color of their skin.

Trump can say nothing but nice things about black americans specifically, and still lose the black vote because he's saying mean things about other minority groups. Dunno how long it will take the GOP to learn this. Recent history suggests that they will not learn it and it'll be a constant problem for them until they fuck with election registration rules enough to disenfranchise enough minority voters so that it doesn't affect voting outcomes so much.



GOP can't though. Not as a sudden shift. They've too heartily embraced the targetting of specific minority groups to make any kind of about face and embrace all minorities in any believable kind of way. It'll take them a couple generations at minimum to undo the damage they've wrecked in this regard.

I agree with you, but a whole bunch of weird shit has happened during this election cycle.

I think it's impossible for Trump to win the black vote, but there is some racial resentment in the black community towards Asians and Hispanics. If Trump is able to tap into that, he could peel off enough voters for it to matter in the general. Not enough to win the black vote, but enough to matter.

I think it's unlikely to happen, but this seems to be the year of the politically impossible, so who knows.

 

[Bardox]

I'm hearing reports that Kasich is dropping out as well. Official announcement to come in about 5 hours. So that's it. Trump is the last bigot standing. Yay America...