1st July is a big day for the euro. Though it is having lots of big days right now. A year ago the ECB as lender of last resort gave Eurozone banks loans worth around half a trillion euros. The ECB wants the money back on 1st July. They have considered that the banks might not be able to repay. If they need to borrow more money from the ECB they can borrow it - but only for three months. So there is a safety net, but if substantial use is made of the safety net the markets will conclude that the Eurozone and therefore the euro is in trouble. Banks will indicate how much (if anything) they need to borrow from ECB 30th June, and markets may well react to these intimations. Greece has had a demonstration-cum-riot (29th June) - of 10,000-12,000 people, shouting "burn parliament". This is a massive demonstration and with some violence, yet it has had surprisingly little news coverage. This may in part be because the Greek media is on strike. The immediate reason for the demonstration is that parliament is debating pension reforms. It is harder to think of clearer indication that the Greek government is not carrying people with it and that Greek austerity just isn't working. On 16th July Greece will try to issue some bonds - and again on 23rd July. The Greek banks are likely to buy them, so there are few doubts about the issue happening - but the price is likely to be horrible. In view of the riots it may be that Greece should rethink this bond issue. Then there's Spain. Strikes today, the Madrid metro closed, and big demonstration in Bilbao. Of course these are protests against austerity. At what stage do either the politicians or the markets conclude that the euro isn't going to make it, and indeed is doing more harm than good? The Spectator last week had a cover picture and story suggesting the probability that Germany would leave the euro. There are rumours on the internet that Germany is printing a new currency. The Spectator thinks Austria and BeNeLux would leave with Germany (and in effect accept a single economic governance) - but the real problem is for France.