Euro woes

dandelion

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Economic benefit was used as a pretext to create it - political aims were the real driving force.
I applaud the political aim of preventing future civil wars in europe. But pretty few people chose to join the EU with the aim of abolishing their own country. They chose to join for economic reasons despite the alarmists claiming the true intent was to do that.
 

TomCat84

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So as to carry on fighting the wars the US started? Against our own interests to have peace here?

Thats not strange at all. It is economic benefit which drove creation of the EU.

No, of course not. If anything really comes of this in the way Jason is proposing, it will only involve those powers needed to deal with a crisis. So centralised lending facilities and requirements for states to have balanced budgets. Which seem to exist already, really.

Estonia was in the news yesterday about their preparations to join the euro. This debate is quite divorced from the real world and has a lot of wishful thinking.

Europeans, Germans in particular, don't really seem to mind our troops there.
 

TomCat84

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I applaud the political aim of preventing future civil wars in europe. But pretty few people chose to join the EU with the aim of abolishing their own country. They chose to join for economic reasons despite the alarmists claiming the true intent was to do that.

I actually think the position of the US government is that they would love to see greater economic/political integration of the EU, for multiple reasons, not the least of which is a unified foreign/economic policy.
 

Jason

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I actually think the position of the US government is that they would love to see greater economic/political integration of the EU, for multiple reasons, not the least of which is a unified foreign/economic policy.

Yes I think this is correct. A Europe of four dozen sovereign states is messy to deal with, as every nation has its own agenda. There is a powerful argument for integration.

There is also a powerful argument around what people actually want, and if we are democrats we have to give some weight to the will of the people. Most people in the continent of Europe identify with their nation state, many of them with a thousand years or more of history and with a language and culture unique to that state. Most people want co-operation with other states in Europe - but co-operation not union. Had the Lisbon Treaty been voted on by the half billion people of Europe there is little doubt that it would have been rejected. On this matter the will of the people has been defeated by a bureaucratic process, part gerrymander, part democratic deficit, part arm-twisting, part threats. But I think we are now seeing too little popular will to make the big jump to unification, and therefore the tide turning in the drive towards European integration.
 
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Mr Greenspan commented today:

"I don't know where the end game is. Something has got give here. One possibility is there are fewer members of the European Monetary Unit," said Greenspan, who was Federal Reserve chairman for 19 years before retiring in 2006.
 

StrictlyAvg

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GOOD! I hope more and more people do.


Curiously it is not a political process which is driving the change but an economic one.

Not THAT curious - mess around with politics - steadily - and people tend to make grumbling noises but are rarely moved to action. Hit people (or indeed nations of people) in the pocket on this scale and action follows PDQ.
 

Jason

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Mr Greenspan commented today:
"I don't know where the end game is. Something has got give here. One possibility is there are fewer members of the European Monetary Unit," said Greenspan, who was Federal Reserve chairman for 19 years before retiring in 2006.

Yes. And furthermore he said:

"…there is an inherent instability in the euro system and the best way of thinking about that is to recognize that when you have a single currency for a group of countries, it’s important that they all have very much the same culture with respect to spending and deficits and the like…..everyone recognize… that a number of the members of euro zone were not as conservative as the Germans. There was this odd view that once they got into the euro they’d look like Germans…. In fact they didn’t…"

Indeed something has got to give. Presumably it will be Germany.
 
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I applaud the political aim of preventing future civil wars in europe. But pretty few people chose to join the EU with the aim of abolishing their own country. They chose to join for economic reasons despite the alarmists claiming the true intent was to do that.
The countries joined for economic and political reasons - but the idea behind the construct in the first place was political.
 

sbat

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Yes. And furthermore he said:

"…there is an inherent instability in the euro system and the best way of thinking about that is to recognize that when you have a single currency for a group of countries, it’s important that they all have very much the same culture with respect to spending and deficits and the like…..everyone recognize… that a number of the members of euro zone were not as conservative as the Germans. There was this odd view that once they got into the euro they’d look like Germans…. In fact they didn’t…"

Indeed something has got to give. Presumably it will be Germany.

The downfall of the euro will certainly mean the downfall of Merkel and the CDU. Which is sad, because I was a fan of hers.

But on a broader scale, because I know that the French, Germans, Dutch, British, etc are more introspective as a culture than Americans, I do think there will be a more thorough and systematic review in the short term of the consumption habits encouraged by financial and banking policy, as well as acceptance (grudging) of the necessity of austerity measures to reduce deficit spending, which I feel to be the underlying structural issue behind the entire collapse.

As early as 2007, there was a large scale review led by the media in France over the culture of debt and even went as far as making solid policy suggestions for reducing the debt. How long it will take lawmakers to actually implement, and the conditions that would put a fire under their asses to do so is a question too far for me.
 
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deleted15807

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....it’s important that they all have very much the same culture with respect to spending and deficits and the like...

And that will turn out to be the Achilles Heel of the euro. Mission Impossible.
 

dandelion

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I dont think its really worth re-hashing the arguments from the main euro/what will happen to Greece thread, but here goes: essentially there is nothing wrong with the euro. The logic of a country which uses an external currency is that if the country is coming close to defaulting it no longer has the option of attempting to devalue its currency or boosting infaltion so as to get rid of its debts. Neither of these courses is inherently desireable, they are just mechanisms available to it to spread the pain away from itself. The logic in a central currency is either governments behave more responsibly, or they go bust individually. A number of economists have argued that Greece, etc, should be allowed to go bust, but the matter is not so simple. The risk is that allowing one to go bust would immediately strain banks from all member countries which had given loans, and increase the chance of the next weakest going to the wall. Once faith in the probity of any european country to repay debt is undermined, the whole pack of cards threatens to collapse. Thus other countries, principally Germany feel obliged to assist their weaker associates. They would still be so obliged if there was no single currency. Germany would be agonising even more over propping up the drachma than over easing pressure on the euro. There is no problem using an external currency. It makes it harder for a government to stealth tax its population by manipulating the value of the currency (which is good!) and it requires a different perception of economic realities.
 
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deleted15807

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I dont think its really worth re-hashing the arguments from the main euro/what will happen to Greece thread, but here goes: essentially there is nothing wrong with the euro. The logic of a country which uses an external currency is that if the country is coming close to defaulting it no longer has the option of attempting to devalue its currency or boosting infaltion so as to get rid of its debts. Neither of these courses is inherently desireable, they are just mechanisms available to it to spread the pain away from itself. The logic in a central currency is either governments behave more responsibly, or they go bust individually. A number of economists have argued that Greece, etc, should be allowed to go bust, but the matter is not so simple. The risk is that allowing one to go bust would immediately strain banks from all member countries which had given loans, and increase the chance of the next weakest going to the wall. Once faith in the probity of any european country to repay debt is undermined, the whole pack of cards threatens to collapse. Thus other countries, principally Germany feel obliged to assist their weaker associates. They would still be so obliged if there was no single currency. Germany would be agonising even more over propping up the drachma than over easing pressure on the euro. There is no problem using an external currency. It makes it harder for a government to stealth tax its population by manipulating the value of the currency (which is good!) and it requires a different perception of economic realities.

I think you just argued the main reasons why not to use an external currency then concluded by saying there is no problem using it. If one country or countries have to keep bailing out another country or countries as Greenspan said 'Something's gotta give'. To say nothing of the differing economic conditions and history of each country.
 

dandelion

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I think I just said no country can afford to allow any country to default on its loans right now for fear of its own banks going into collapse again. The clear evil is a government which is unable to balance its budget. One thing which an independent currency does is to make clearer a distinction between government and governed, where the interest of one is notnecessarily the interest of the other.
 

Jason

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The Eurozone cannot afford to allow a Eurozone country to default (or perhaps the EU allow an EU country). But the Eurozone cannot afford to prevent such a default. There isn't enough money in the Eurozone to cover the debts. The euro is knackered because the events in Club Med are in effect calling in these unpayable debts (a position not faced by the UK or the USA). This is the impossible situation, and something must give.

Greenspan is stating the blindingly obvious - something must give. The solution has to be politically led and prompted by TINA economics: There Is No Alternative. Germany has to revalue out of the euro. Nothing else works. The euro was created so that the consequences of crashing/devaluing out are just too horrible But revaluing out is possible. Messy, problematic, difficult but possible.

Some of the very many problems of a German revaluation out of the euro include:
- creation of a German block within the EU (Germany, Austria, BeNeLux) as an inner core and therefore de facto end of the European integration concept.
- keeping the markets calm. I don't think anyone truly has an inkling as to what such a change would do to the markets.
- what does France do? German revaluation pretty much triggers French revaluation out of the rump euro. It is unlikely that the French economy could go with Germany (though maybe the politicians would try this)
- what about the euro reserves? If Germany (and France) launch a new currency it seems that they would do so without the reserves. This is possible, but messy.
- practical issues around having new banknotes available on day one of a revaluation (perhaps overprinting euro notes - hole punching them only works for devaluation).

We live in interesting times!
 
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deleted15807

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I think I just said no country can afford to allow any country to default on its loans right now for fear of its own banks going into collapse again. The clear evil is a government which is unable to balance its budget. One thing which an independent currency does is to make clearer a distinction between government and governed, where the interest of one is not necessarily the interest of the other.

But is that a good idea for a country to adopt a currency that is completely removed from the fundamentals of that country. I think it's more than just not being able to balance a budget. For instance China 'manipulates' it's currency to help make it's products cheaper on the world market. This is a good thing for Chinese business and the Chinese economy as a whole not a good thing for business in other countries that compete with Chinese companies.

The Eurozone cannot afford to allow a Eurozone country to default (or perhaps the EU allow an EU country). But the Eurozone cannot afford to prevent such a default.

And that is the paradox they are faced with. The politics behind one country having to bail out another country is politically deeply unpopular.
 

dandelion

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But is that a good idea for a country to adopt a currency that is completely removed from the fundamentals of that country.
A currency is simply a mechanism for swapping value. One single world currency would work very well to do this. Would indeed be better.


I think it's more than just not being able to balance a budget. For instance China 'manipulates' it's currency to help make it's products cheaper on the world market. This is a good thing for Chinese business and the Chinese economy as a whole not a good thing for business in other countries that compete with Chinese companies.
We have the option to do the same thing if we want. Instead we choose to take their cheap goods. If everyone used the same currency China would still have the option of running a cheap labour command economy and making very cheap goods for export. Any company in the UK or US could pay its staff half the normal wages and make cheap goods. We choose not to.
 

Jason

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A currency is simply a mechanism for swapping value. One single world currency would work very well to do this. Would indeed be

This is only one of the three functions of currency. The idea is that coins are made flat to stack, round to pass around, and have numbers on then so they can be counted.

Swapping value - passing money around - is just one function of a currency, and for this one function a single currency would work well.

Storing value - stacking money - can be done by a gold standard (indeed the old idea of the gold standard system in effect tried just this, with national currencies acting as promisory notes for a quantity of gold). But once you leave the gold standard the currencies are backed by the strength of the economies of the nations. The value of the pound in your pocket depends on the value of the UK economy. A single currency as store of value works if all the nations have an economy of the same strength, and economies strengthen or weaken at the same rate. It cannot work on an average of the strengths and weaknesses of several economies.

Counting value means that that no country makes the count go wrong by printing money.

A currency will work only over the geogrpahical area where these three criteria are met. For a currency to work you must have a full fiscal union with a single point for issue of bonds. You have to have economies which are relatively similar in a full fiscal and political union.

A world currency would only work with a world government and a world economy. Currency unions are enormously problematic, and either break down or lead to full political and economic union (the process can take as long as a couple of decades). The introduction of the euro absolutely required full fiscal and political union to make it work. We don't have that, and even the most ardent Europhiles cannot imagine getting full fiscal and political union in the next few months. Economics 101 says that the euro must fail. Greenspan has made a point so obvious that it should hardly need saying, and every banker and economist knows it. The pity is the politicians don't seem to believe it. Really it should be Greece that leaves, but the political and legal knots are too ghastly. So we have to start the unravelling at the other end - Germany has to leave.
 

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To the OP, it doesn't seem as if anything drastic will happen within a day anyway - because I highly doubt a country as entrenched in the european integration project as Germany would (or even could) withdraw;

There has been so much work put into the EU and the EC (both political and economic union) that I highly doubt that it would disintegrate as quickly as has been suggested here. Numerous political careers across Europe have been staked on the success of the project. Germany's withdrawal would effectively mean the end of Merkel's career and probably a massive hit for her CDU party. Sarkozy and the UMP would also take a massive hit - remember, Chirac disregarded the no vote in 2005 for the EU referendum, the public has been dragged along kicking and screaming.

I suspect their initial efforts will be focused on finding ways of patching up the debt crisis so that the status quo politically is as unchanged as possible. So my thought is that this crisis may foster to create even more political control of euro member economies - although not in a way that increases public accountability.

In the future, I think we'll see the ECB dictating budget limitations to euro member countries - which will not be politically palatable to the voting public, but I do think will drive forward political integration.

Something's got to give alright - it's going to be the tax-paying public, and noone else. Paying down the debt and closing the deficit will come out of their, and only their, pockets. We'll see more of the austerity riots, for sure, and new political movements, to be sure. But the beast is already out, and I think an integrated europe is more of an inevitability given the control banks have over the economy and bureaucrats have over the political process.

This is only one of the three functions of currency. The idea is that coins are made flat to stack, round to pass around, and have numbers on then so they can be counted.

Swapping value - passing money around - is just one function of a currency, and for this one function a single currency would work well.

Storing value - stacking money - can be done by a gold standard (indeed the old idea of the gold standard system in effect tried just this, with national currencies acting as promisory notes for a quantity of gold). But once you leave the gold standard the currencies are backed by the strength of the economies of the nations. The value of the pound in your pocket depends on the value of the UK economy. A single currency as store of value works if all the nations have an economy of the same strength, and economies strengthen or weaken at the same rate. It cannot work on an average of the strengths and weaknesses of several economies.

Counting value means that that no country makes the count go wrong by printing money.

A currency will work only over the geogrpahical area where these three criteria are met. For a currency to work you must have a full fiscal union with a single point for issue of bonds. You have to have economies which are relatively similar in a full fiscal and political union.

A world currency would only work with a world government and a world economy. Currency unions are enormously problematic, and either break down or lead to full political and economic union (the process can take as long as a couple of decades). The introduction of the euro absolutely required full fiscal and political union to make it work. We don't have that, and even the most ardent Europhiles cannot imagine getting full fiscal and political union in the next few months. Economics 101 says that the euro must fail. Greenspan has made a point so obvious that it should hardly need saying, and every banker and economist knows it. The pity is the politicians don't seem to believe it. Really it should be Greece that leaves, but the political and legal knots are too ghastly. So we have to start the unravelling at the other end - Germany has to leave.
 
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deleted15807

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In the future, I think we'll see the ECB dictating budget limitations to euro member countries - which will not be politically palatable to the voting public, but I do think will drive forward political integration.

That's an understatement. In essence a country would be abdicating governance to a body of appointees that have no direct accountability whatsoever to the public. Isn't this the main reason why the UK said 'no thanks' and right now they are glad they said 'no thanks' to the Euro? How can what's good for Germany be good for France and the Netherlands while simultaneously being good for Italy and Greece and Spain which have very different economies all for the nebulous benefit of 'integration'? What's gotta give is the idea that integration is possible with so many widely varying political and economic realities.
 

sbat

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That's an understatement. In essence a country would be abdicating governance to a body of appointees that have no direct accountability whatsoever to the public. Isn't this the main reason why the UK said 'no thanks' and right now they are glad they said 'no thanks' to the Euro? How can what's good for Germany be good for France and the Netherlands while simultaneously being good for Italy and Greece and Spain which have very different economies all for the nebulous benefit of 'integration'? What's gotta give is the idea that integration is possible with so many widely varying political and economic realities.

This is based on the assumption that the actual decision-makers in europe actually care about the democratic ideals you clearly hold sacrosanct.

Those who are currently the main drivers of euro integration do not share those values, so I believe what will give is the european public's ability to drive europe-wide policy via public/voter-driven preferences.
The past few European treaties have been pushed, in full contempt of public approval. European integration has all along been pushed counter to popular desire. So why would riots over austerity measures stop those who have europe by the balls from pushing europe where they want it to go?

The precious welfare systems that are the linchpin of the vaunted high quality of life in wealthy european nations are entirely dependent upon deficit spending and banks, its entirely unavoidable that banks will ultimately dictate the politics of the Eurozone. Unless Europeans are willing to give up their social safety nets for a generation while they revolt and topple the existing financial system.