Euro woes

D

deleted15807

Guest
The past few European treaties have been pushed, in full contempt of public approval.

It all points to what Mr. Greenspan said 'Something's gotta give'. :smile: The public knows it stinks, they have proof it stinks and the only question is how can it be 'undone'.

I don't think the banks per se will dictate policy so much as the 'investment community' that will be disinclined to put money behind a ship that isn't seaworthy. In this beautiful capitalist world we live in, it isn't governments any more that run things it's the wealthy and where they decide to put or not put their trillions. The hedge funds et al can 'attack' a currency and cause worldwide misery. They can bid up the price of crude from $36 a barrel to $147 a barrel. A silent coup has occurred and it's going to take another French Revolution like event to take it back.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

dandelion

Superior Member
Verified
Gold
Joined
Sep 25, 2009
Posts
13,297
Media
21
Likes
2,705
Points
358
Location
UK
Verification
View
Sexuality
100% Gay, 0% Straight
Gender
Male
Storing value - stacking money - can be done by a gold standard (indeed the old idea of the gold standard system in effect tried just this, with national currencies acting as promisory notes for a quantity of gold).
The trouble with the gold standard was that it was pinned to the value of a real commodity, which naturaly fluctuates...why people just dig it out of the ground!
Counting value means that that no country makes the count go wrong by printing money.
As I just said, or digging it out of the ground. But this is precisely what does not happen with the euro, where printing of money is controlled and authorised by the central bank on behalf of all its members.

But once you leave the gold standard the currencies are backed by the strength of the economies of the nations. The value of the pound in your pocket depends on the value of the UK economy. A single currency as store of value works if all the nations have an economy of the same strength, and economies strengthen or weaken at the same rate. It cannot work on an average of the strengths and weaknesses of several economies.
Why not? You have never explained this article of faith. The euro is better than the gold standard because it is divorced from the value of any actual traded commodity. The more countries adopt it, the less meaningful are concepts such as the exchange rate with other currencies. It is literally a universlly accepted exchange medium within one very wide area. If you dont like what you can buy with it in Germany, you can go to Greece and use it.


For a currency to work you must have a full fiscal union with a single point for issue of bonds.
why? But equally, so whats the problem with the current setup?

You have to have economies which are relatively similar in a full fiscal and political union.
Why? Historically this has not been true. I remind you that the EU is in fact a highly integrated fiscal union already.

A world currency would only work with a world government and a world economy.
Nonsense. You reckon that simple gold can work as an exchange medium and historically it was used at fixed exchange rates for very long periods. A frequent theme as to why such currencies failed was debasement, which isnt going to happen with a centrally organised paper currency.

Currency unions are enormously problematic, and either break down or lead to full political and economic union.
Historically currency unions have only existed where political agreement has already been reached, and break down when the political acord breaks down. If it does not, then frequently full political integration takes place, but the currency is a sideline to the real action.
 

Jason

Superior Member
Verified
Gold
Joined
Aug 26, 2004
Posts
15,620
Media
51
Likes
4,802
Points
433
Location
London (Greater London, England)
Verification
View
Sexuality
90% Gay, 10% Straight
Gender
Male
I remind you that the EU is in fact a highly integrated fiscal union already.

This is the key point. The EU is a highly integrated economic union. It is emphatically not in any way whatsoever a fiscal union. A fiscal union is where collection and spending of taxes are uniform, so that there are identical taxes at the same level throughout the entity, and an identical spending framework. (some very small variation possible, eg different levels of sales tax in different US states). A fiscal union manages its shortfalls by a centralised issue of bonds. For example for an EU fiscal union to exits income tax would need to be identical in all respects throughout the EU - same thresholds, same rates, same use of Income Tax/NI divide (or otherwise). And all welfare expenditure would have to be identical - from pension age and level of pensions to unemployment benefits to money spent on education and health.

A currency union cannot exist for much more than one economic cycle without a full fiscal union. Usually currency union and fiscal union are introduced together. The EU intended a currency union to drive a fiscal union as the only resolution to the situation set up, and specifically set up a Euro from which no exit by a member state was ever envisaged.

There are cases where a currency union was followed by fiscal union (eg the nineteenth century German currency/customs union came before German unification). And there are cases where fiscal union was followed by currency union (eg union of England and Scotland). There are no examples of more than a short life for any currency union of a developed nation without fiscal union.

Greenspan is right - something must give. Either the EU adopts (very quickly) full fiscal union of the Eurozone (ie complete integration as a single political and economic unit which is a bond-issuing sovereign state) or the Euro breaks. Something must give. This is the logic that called the Telegraph to call the Euro the "zombie" currency. The fiscal union is not even being talked about; therefore the Euro must fail. The bankers and economists all know this - the politicians seem not to.
 

B_nyvin

Experimental Member
Joined
Aug 3, 2009
Posts
399
Media
0
Likes
23
Points
103
Age
39
Location
Pensacola FL
Sexuality
90% Gay, 10% Straight
Gender
Male
Joining the Euro is shown to be economically beneficial and not being part of the eurozone does NOT give better economic stability, as can be seen in the baltic states, the UK, and hungary.
 

sbat

Sexy Member
Joined
Apr 26, 2010
Posts
2,295
Media
0
Likes
28
Points
73
Sexuality
99% Straight, 1% Gay
Gender
Male
I still think you're missing the political process behind the changes you think will happen. There's the third and fourth options that will completely sidestep public opinion. And honestly, I don't think that the European public is equipped to vote in the changes/sacrifices necessary to make the inevitable integrated Europe possible.

This is the key point. The EU is a highly integrated economic union. It is emphatically not in any way whatsoever a fiscal union. A fiscal union is where collection and spending of taxes are uniform, so that there are identical taxes at the same level throughout the entity, and an identical spending framework. (some very small variation possible, eg different levels of sales tax in different US states). A fiscal union manages its shortfalls by a centralised issue of bonds. For example for an EU fiscal union to exits income tax would need to be identical in all respects throughout the EU - same thresholds, same rates, same use of Income Tax/NI divide (or otherwise). And all welfare expenditure would have to be identical - from pension age and level of pensions to unemployment benefits to money spent on education and health.

A currency union cannot exist for much more than one economic cycle without a full fiscal union. Usually currency union and fiscal union are introduced together. The EU intended a currency union to drive a fiscal union as the only resolution to the situation set up, and specifically set up a Euro from which no exit by a member state was ever envisaged.

There are cases where a currency union was followed by fiscal union (eg the nineteenth century German currency/customs union came before German unification). And there are cases where fiscal union was followed by currency union (eg union of England and Scotland). There are no examples of more than a short life for any currency union of a developed nation without fiscal union.

Greenspan is right - something must give. Either the EU adopts (very quickly) full fiscal union of the Eurozone (ie complete integration as a single political and economic unit which is a bond-issuing sovereign state) or the Euro breaks. Something must give. This is the logic that called the Telegraph to call the Euro the "zombie" currency. The fiscal union is not even being talked about; therefore the Euro must fail. The bankers and economists all know this - the politicians seem not to.
 
D

deleted15807

Guest
Joining the Euro is shown to be economically beneficial and not being part of the eurozone does NOT give better economic stability, as can be seen in the baltic states, the UK, and hungary.

Huuum.....
Greece’s Woes May Give Pause to Euro Zone Candidates

“Countries like Estonia and Latvia were once desperate to get in,” said Alf Vanags, director of the Baltic International Center for Economic Policy Studies in Riga. “The euro is not looking so attractive now.”

Enthusiastic for years about adopting the euro, Latvia had undertaken painful austerity measures. Even as the global economy contracted, the government slashed spending. The program included cuts of 50 percent or more in the salaries of public-sector employees and a 40 percent reduction in hospital budgets.

The result, many economists say, has been deepening unemployment and the worst recession of any country in the 27-nation European Union.
 

Drifterwood

Superior Member
Joined
Jun 14, 2007
Posts
18,678
Media
0
Likes
2,812
Points
333
Location
Greece
It all points to what Mr. Greenspan said 'Something's gotta give'. :smile: The public knows it stinks, they have proof it stinks and the only question is how can it be 'undone'.

I don't think the banks per se will dictate policy so much as the 'investment community' that will be disinclined to put money behind a ship that isn't seaworthy. In this beautiful capitalist world we live in, it isn't governments any more that run things it's the wealthy and where they decide to put or not put their trillions. The hedge funds et al can 'attack' a currency and cause worldwide misery. They can bid up the price of crude from $36 a barrel to $147 a barrel. A silent coup has occurred and it's going to take another French Revolution like event to take it back.

You can add to this the fact that world trade only accounts for 10% of currency exchange, the rest is markets playing fuck with us.

So the question for me has always been how to make the markets reflect the reality of exchange rather than exploitation. I think we are blinded by a devotion to the principles of free market economics. The irony is that free market economics are not really in evidence, everyone, every business, every country attempts to manipulate the market to its benefit. Clearly the Chinese are winning this one at the moment, but please note that they have been the first to suggest a wrold currency.

I'd like to see the actual numbers regarding potential default positions of the PIGS compared to the wealth of Europe as a whole.
 

Jason

Superior Member
Verified
Gold
Joined
Aug 26, 2004
Posts
15,620
Media
51
Likes
4,802
Points
433
Location
London (Greater London, England)
Verification
View
Sexuality
90% Gay, 10% Straight
Gender
Male
We in Switzerland have no fiscal union and it works perfectly. You still live in the nineteen century.

Switzerland indeed has a high degree of fiscal federalism with many tax issues determined by the individual cantons. Notwithstanding it is misleading to say Switzerland has no fiscal union. Whatever the popular view on this matter in Switzerland might be (and I'm aware it is a constitutional issue) the Swiss situation meets the definition of fiscal union. Taxes including Income Tax, Corporation Tax, VAT and many others are levied at state level (this is the reality now, even if the cantons might in theory one day regain these powers). There is also a raft of tax harmonisation legislation. Bonds are issued by Switzerland not by each individual canton. There is comparable welfare provision. This is fiscal union.

Switzerland has a relatively uniform wealth across the cantons - nothing like the disparities that exist in many other nation states, and certainly nothing like the enormous disparities that exist in the EU. This facilitates the fiscal federalism which exists. Switzerland also has the advantage of its role as an international banking centre. The Swiss model is not capable of replication across the EU. Indeed it is a model for Switzerland and Switzerland alone.
 
D

deleted15807

Guest
So the question for me has always been how to make the markets reflect the reality of exchange rather than exploitation.

Capitalism's very foundation is exploitation. Market's exist for 'exploitation' from small to large. You are messing with the very primal forces of nature. :nono:
 

Jason

Superior Member
Verified
Gold
Joined
Aug 26, 2004
Posts
15,620
Media
51
Likes
4,802
Points
433
Location
London (Greater London, England)
Verification
View
Sexuality
90% Gay, 10% Straight
Gender
Male
I might be wrong but I am always appalled by your logorrhoic replies.

Look at Zürich, Kanton - WKN A0AAUN - Anleihen - Finanzen100. Please explain whether these are bonds or not.

For a minute you had me worried there!

The details are set out in the Stammdaten (Master Data) table bottom right. It is indeed a bond (Anleihe). The Emittent (security issuing institution) is indeed Zürich, Kanton, but the Land (Emmittent) (ie the Country) is Switzerland. This is a Swiss national bond for which the Canton of Zurich is acting as the security issuing authority. Around the world often banks and other financial institutions - frequently not national banks - act as issuing authorities. Here the Canton of Zurich is filling the role often occupied by a bank and has its name on the bond, but it remains a Swiss (national) bond. If the Canton of Zurich went bankrupt this bond would be repayable by Switzerland.

I think I'm right in this, but all caveats.
 

Jason

Superior Member
Verified
Gold
Joined
Aug 26, 2004
Posts
15,620
Media
51
Likes
4,802
Points
433
Location
London (Greater London, England)
Verification
View
Sexuality
90% Gay, 10% Straight
Gender
Male
Canton guarantees are not necessarily secured by the Swiss Confederation. As a matter of fact, the Solothurn Cantonal Bank was going bankrupt and was privatized: the Swiss Confederation did not pay for the financial debacle.
Cantonal bank - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Interesting. I know something about economics, but not a whole lot about Swiss bonds. As far as I can see the bonds are guaranteed by the Swiss government (but my German isn't brilliant and I can't actually find something onthe topic in French - or even English). Banks are a different matter of course - there needn't be any sort of national guarantee (or any guarantee at all) for banks - though it is an instance of decentralisation if there is not. Switzerland is a great example of a country that does things differently and there are surely lessons for other countries and for the EU.
 
7

798686

Guest
The possibility of eurobonds being issued has been raised by the head of CoR in Brussels (Committee of the Regions) as a way to raise finance for EU-wide infrastructure projects.

Doesn't the issuing of EU bonds mark a major step in the emergence of the Eu as a de facto state?
 

Drifterwood

Superior Member
Joined
Jun 14, 2007
Posts
18,678
Media
0
Likes
2,812
Points
333
Location
Greece
The possibility of eurobonds being issued has been raised by the head of CoR in Brussels (Committee of the Regions) as a way to raise finance for EU-wide infrastructure projects.

Doesn't the issuing of EU bonds mark a major step in the emergence of the Eu as a de facto state?

I think everyone knows that closer economic ties lead inexorably to closer political ties, and we also know that crises force things to move faster. This is why, I presume, Jason has been so worried since I can remember when.

I am happy with a Republic of Europe, or European Republic. You can give the Federated States great powers.
 
7

798686

Guest
I think everyone knows that closer economic ties lead inexorably to closer political ties, and we also know that crises force things to move faster.
True.

I am happy with a Republic of Europe, or European Republic. You can give the Federated States great powers.
But they've already got great powers! We don't need the EU to kindly give us what's ours already. :redface:
 

Jason

Superior Member
Verified
Gold
Joined
Aug 26, 2004
Posts
15,620
Media
51
Likes
4,802
Points
433
Location
London (Greater London, England)
Verification
View
Sexuality
90% Gay, 10% Straight
Gender
Male
I think everyone knows that closer economic ties lead inexorably to closer political ties, and we also know that crises force things to move faster. This is why, I presume, Jason has been so worried since I can remember when.

I am happy with a Republic of Europe, or European Republic. You can give the Federated States great powers.

Yes the concept is worrying to me. Reading the article Joll linked it seems that the member states can't borrow any more, so a socialist has suggested another raft of debt guaranteed by the EU instead of its broke members. Madness! And yes bond issue is perhaps the key step in the creation of a sovereign state.

It is not going to happen overnight and with a bit of luck it won't happen at all. It would need some form of all-states agreement, and it is hard to see that anything could be done in less than a decade. Additionally I can't see how a country outside the euro could be a part of such a scheme. Maybe we are into variable geometery and multi-speed Europes, or maybe the tide has turned and it isn't going to happen in any form at all.

No I couldn't be happy with any sort of Republic of Europe or feel any sort of sense of belonging to such an entity. I really don't care what the economic arguments are - I don't want it, and I think the vast majority of half a billion EU member state nationals don't want it.
 
7

798686

Guest
No I couldn't be happy with any sort of Republic of Europe or feel any sort of sense of belonging to such an entity. I really don't care what the economic arguments are - I don't want it, and I think the vast majority of half a billion EU member state nationals don't want it.
Same.