Euro woes

[TomCat84]

No I couldn't be happy with any sort of Republic of Europe or feel any sort of sense of belonging to such an entity. I really don't care what the economic arguments are - I don't want it, and I think the vast majority of half a billion EU member state nationals don't want it.

IMO, it's not something that would be able to occur over the course of the less than 100 years it's been since the end of WWII. If anything like it is going to happen, it would need to go slowly- over the course of 150-200 years.

 

[sbat]

IMO, it's not something that would be able to occur over the course of the less than 100 years it's been since the end of WWII. If anything like it is going to happen, it would need to go slowly- over the course of 150-200 years.

If we're talking de jure - then I agree. But de facto, it could happen sooner than we think.

Caesar Augustus was the de facto emperor of Rome as a result of the power he wielded as holder of multiple key positions within the Republic. He didn't need the title emperor to rule the Republic as an emperor. If I'm not mistaken, the title Emperor was created after his death.

The same principle applies to Europe. More and more, the ECB is becoming the "Republic of Europe" - the source of fiscal and monetary guidance, which in turn dictates everything else that happens within the EuroZone.

 

[Jason]

Estonia's membership of the euro from 1st January 2011 is likely to be confirmed on 13th July. Estonia easily meets the criteria for joining and to delay would be seen as an enormous vote of no confidence in the Euro.

But elsewhere in the Baltic States there are major problems, particularly Latvia. See for example Latvia risks becoming first EU member to face economic meltdown - Telegraph
Latvia is not in the euro and not going to be joining soon, so problems here do not have the same ramifications as the Greek problems. But this is still far from encouraging. Lithuania also has major problems.

EU countries not joining the euro anytime soon are: UK, Denmark, Sweden, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria. The UK has stated no preparation for joining in this parliament, which in effect means 2020 as the earliest possible date. Assuming that the ECB does become a de facto catalyst for single economic government in the EU (sbat's post) then these countries remain outside the "European Republic" - and new EU members would also be outside this core club. We need the politicians to do something useful with this reality. It seems to me that a two-speed Europe is (de facto) here already, and if the Eurozone fractures we're looking at three speed.

 

[798686]

Estonia's membership of the euro from 1st January 2011 is likely to be confirmed on 13th July. Estonia easily meets the criteria for joining and to delay would be seen as an enormous vote of no confidence in the Euro.

But elsewhere in the Baltic States there are major problems, particularly Latvia. See for example Latvia risks becoming first EU member to face economic meltdown - Telegraph
Latvia is not in the euro and not going to be joining soon, so problems here do not have the same ramifications as the Greek problems. But this is still far from encouraging. Lithuania also has major problems.

EU countries not joining the euro anytime soon are: UK, Denmark, Sweden, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria. The UK has stated no preparation for joining in this parliament, which in effect means 2020 as the earliest possible date. Assuming that the ECB does become a de facto catalyst for single economic government in the EU (sbat's post) then these countries remain outside the "European Republic" - and new EU members would also be outside this core club. We need the politicians to do something useful with this reality. It seems to me that a two-speed Europe is (de facto) here already, and if the Eurozone fractures we're looking at three speed.

A two or three speed Europe would suit me just fine - with the UK in a much looser grouping. A federal, core Europe at the centre would still alarm me slighty, but I don't think there's a lot we can do about it.

A closer, politically integrated Europe, with fewer states than at present seems likely whichever way you look at it.

 

[Drifterwood]

I imagine that there are States within the United States, that alone could not maintain their economic status outside the Union. This is no reason to devalue the whole, in fact I would say that it strengthens the whole.

The other question is whether banking is more an economic issue than a political one. Once you have an economic union, you must at some level have a cohesive financial model which is why Euro Bonds started in the Sixties. Does the economy drive politics or vice versa? It's the economy d'uh.

 

[798686]

Does the economy drive politics or vice versa? It's the economy d'uh.

True! Which is what the Eurocrats were banking on when they introduced the euro. So, political ideals drive economic decisions, which bring about further economic and political developments in the desired direction...