Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

[Perados]

It looks as if Trump plans a complete rebalancing of the US economy. If the UK gets it right we can hope for a switch where America reduces imports from (say) Mexico and increases them from UK. Clearly this would be an advantage for the UK.

Sure... this will happen. Trump will stop imports from Mexico, to increase imports from UK. This is logical that it will happen like this, because Trump always says he wants to increase production in the USA.

Your optimistic world view is striking

 

[798686]

Excellent speech from Theresa - which the markets seem to have liked. Pound is up.

Key points:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-38635035

 

[798686]

But we want this to continue!
But we want this to continue!

This is an outright lie, Dandy.

You're at odds with the majority of voters here - they voted to put an end to Free Movement of People.

You do not speak for the country on this, so don't say 'we' (unless you mean yourself and Drifter, only).

 

[798686]

Theresa May's 12-point plan for Brexit

• We will provide certainty wherever we can.
• Leaving the European Union will mean that our laws will be made in Westminster, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast.
• A stronger Britain demands that we strengthen the precious union between the four nations of the United Kingdom.
• We will deliver a practical solution that allows the maintenance of the commons travel area with the Republic of Ireland.
• Brexit must mean control of the number of people who come to Britain from Europe.
• We want to guarantee rights of EU citizens living in Britain & rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can
• Not only will the Government protect the rights of workers set out in European legislation, we will build on them.
• We will pursue a bold and ambitious Free Trade Agreement with the European Union.
• It is time for Britain to get out into the world and rediscover its role as a great, global, trading nation.
• We will welcome agreement to continue to collaborate with our European partners on major science, research and technology initiatives.
• We will continue to work closely with our European allies in foreign and defence policy even as we leave the EU itself.
• We believe a phased process of implementation will be in the interests of Britain, the EU institutions and member states

 

[Jason]

Sure... this will happen. Trump will stop imports from Mexico, to increase imports from UK. This is logical that it will happen like this, because Trump always says he wants to increase production in the USA.

Your optimistic world view is striking

Trump is in need of a foreign policy success early in his presidency. The success available is the outline of a trade deal with the UK, something he calls "signature ready". This need trumps (!) economics. The UK is a developed economy so it is not going to offer the sort of cut-price competition coming from Mexico and China.

The sort of development that Trump would like is (for example) where a UK car manufacturer opens a plant in the US rust belt. This would be providing jobs in the USA. It might be that components are manufactured in UK and assembly is in USA. I don't know what the practicalities are, but we need to look.

 

[Jason]

So far today the pound is up three and a half cents against the dollar. I haven't been able to check it, but there is chatter that this is the biggest single-day rise since 2008.

It seems reasonable to say that the markets have loved Theresa May's speech.

I particularly like the maintenance of a common travel area with the Republic of Ireland. “The family ties and bonds of affection that unite our two countries mean that there will always be a special relationship between us.”

 

[Jason]

Theresa May takes the dog for a walk.

 

[798686]

This is actually a really good article, despite the theatrics.

https://www.ft.com/content/51f35dc8-dcc0-11e6-86ac-f253db7791c6

 

[Perados]

Trump is in need of a foreign policy success early in his presidency. The success available is the outline of a trade deal with the UK, something he calls "signature ready". This need trumps (!) economics. The UK is a developed economy so it is not going to offer the sort of cut-price competition coming from Mexico and China.

first of all, I doubt that Trump thinks he needs anything. The only necessityTrump feels is "I want"...
Sure, people will tell him what might be best for his presidency, but I guess he will ignore every advice and fire those who don't agree with him in every point.

We will see a deal with Britain, but how it will look like is another question. I'm sure Britain won't sign everything, but as you said, Britain is a developed country with a large finance and car industry. Everything Trump wants to make great again.

I still believe the EU is the best option for Britain and you should try to dtay as close as possible. Like May said, you will leave the EU, but you will stay a part of Europe.

The sort of development that Trump would like is (for example) where a UK car manufacturer opens a plant in the US rust belt. This would be providing jobs in the USA. It might be that components are manufactured in UK and assembly is in USA. I don't know what the practicalities are, but we need to look.

Sure... it will be the first step to build a factory and import part, but for how long?
When do you think he will demand a 60, 70 or 80 percentage quota "made in the USA" for every car?

I think we should show Trump his limits as soon as possible. Blackmailing isn't acceptable

 

[Perados]

So far today the pound is up three and a half cents against the dollar. I haven't been able to check it, but there is chatter that this is the biggest single-day rise since 2008.

It seems reasonable to say that the markets have loved Theresa May's speech.

I particularly like the maintenance of a common travel area with the Republic of Ireland. “The family ties and bonds of affection that unite our two countries mean that there will always be a special relationship between us.”

Correct, the markets loved it...
Out of two reasons.
1. The time of speculations end, the British government reveals how they think a Brexit could look like.
Markets hate nothing more than uncertainty. So, no matter how bad the news are, they are still better than speculations.

2. After May's announcement of a "hard Brexit", the pointed out that Britain still gonna have a close economical and political relation to the EU...
Might be the Brexit not as hard as thought?

 

[Perados]

Theresa May's 12-point plan for Brexit

• We will provide certainty wherever we can.
• Leaving the European Union will mean that our laws will be made in Westminster, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast.
• A stronger Britain demands that we strengthen the precious union between the four nations of the United Kingdom.
• We will deliver a practical solution that allows the maintenance of the commons travel area with the Republic of Ireland.
• Brexit must mean control of the number of people who come to Britain from Europe.
• We want to guarantee rights of EU citizens living in Britain & rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can
• Not only will the Government protect the rights of workers set out in European legislation, we will build on them.
• We will pursue a bold and ambitious Free Trade Agreement with the European Union.
• It is time for Britain to get out into the world and rediscover its role as a great, global, trading nation.
• We will welcome agreement to continue to collaborate with our European partners on major science, research and technology initiatives.
• We will continue to work closely with our European allies in foreign and defence policy even as we leave the EU itself.
• We believe a phased process of implementation will be in the interests of Britain, the EU institutions and member states

Sounds like everything else, but not like a hard Brexit.
Close trade relations, but total control of the people who immigrants AND open borders with Ireland...
Needs a lot of time to negotiate.

 

[dandelion]

This is an outright lie, Dandy. You're at odds with the majority of voters here - they voted to put an end to Free Movement of People.

No they didnt. Most of them did not even vote to leave the EU. no one voted on a question of restricting immigration. The first 'we' I used referred to the conservative party, speaking for the nation, who definitely wish immigration to continue. But then, so do labour, so its a pretty universal sort of 'we'. The second 'we' referred to the conservative party also , and indeed May today publicly said she wishes to remain part of the customs union.

Theresa May's 12-point plan for Brexit

• We will provide certainty wherever we can

BBC commentator observed that this barely starts explaining the Uk Brexit position.

Leaving the European Union will mean that our laws will be made in Westminster, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast.

No, it means we will continue to follow international rules and regulations. Now more will be Chinese, or whoever we make new deals with. Byt very likely we will continue to copy most EU trade rules and regulations so as to be able to continue trading with them at all, even if we end with no deal whatever.

• A stronger Britain demands that we strengthen the precious union between the four nations of the United Kingdom.

  Oh dear. Thats going badly. Now the Irish are militaing for a new settlement and the nationalists see this as another opportunity to unite Ireland.

We will deliver a practical solution that allows the maintenance of the commons travel area with the Republic of Ireland.

'Travel area'? I heard that phrase and thought it sounded like trouble. The Irish will not take kindly to restricted trade across the border.

• Brexit must mean control of the number of people who come to Britain from Europe.

  It will not.

We want to guarantee rights of EU citizens living in Britain & rights of British nationals in other member states, as early as we can

I thought this exceedingly unlikely also, because the EU is not going to make mini deals along the way. It will be one big deal signed on the last day of negotiations, or no deal whatever.

Not only will the Government protect the rights of workers set out in European legislation, we will build on them.

Conservatives never increase workers rights. May may mean what she says, but this is the opposite of her parties policies, and one reason they dont like the EU.

We will pursue a bold and ambitious Free Trade Agreement with the European Union.

As Sir Humphrey would have said.

It is time for Britain to get out into the world and rediscover its role as a great, global, trading nation.

Like the Uk has been doing nothing while a member. Jason ranted on about how he was now working twice as hard as before, trying to get new foreign business. Precisely what will happen, it will be twice as difficult to get trade as now.

We will welcome agreement to continue to collaborate with our European partners on major science, research and technology initiatives.

Try to rescue the mess already made of the UK university system because of breaking EU links?

We will continue to work closely with our European allies in foreign and defence policy even as we leave the EU itself.

Still wants NATO? Unfortunate that Trump wants to pull out.

The speech was geneally described as wanting her cake and eating it. It was really chilling that she threatened the EU with dire revenge if they failed to agree to her terms. Because it struck me as an utterly toothless threat. We depend on them for 45% of our trade, whereas theirs is only 7% going to us for the member with even the largest sales to the UK. And she sounded exactly like a schoolmistress telling everyone off for being naughty.

Of course, there was little else she could have done. If she had come forward and said, "Ok guys, some of you voted to leave and we will deliver: All the advice I am getting says it will be terribly bad for the UK, but you asked for it and so youre getting it", I doubt it would have done much for her or the party. The only option for her is to be optimistic and ride the tiger. We, not having our jobs on the line if the government falls, can be rather more frank about the dangerous path she has chosen for the nation.

Because it was a choice by the conservative party, to accept the result of an advisory referendum in which only 1/3 of the nation voted to leave the EU.

 

[dandelion]

Sounds like everything else, but not like a hard Brexit.
Close trade relations, but total control of the people who immigrants AND open borders with Ireland...
Needs a lot of time to negotiate.

The government has this difficulty that immigration is considered one of the biggest issues causing the Brexit vote, but it is government policy to encourage immigration. Indeed, the Uk depends upon it. So they are going in for double talk about 'taking control', but downplaying that once they get control they plan to do nothing. Although it could well be they plan to increase immigration from outside the EU. India and China have already said this would be a condition of any trade deal, I think.

It looks as though the Irish power sharing agreement is going to break down. It might not, I think the separatists wanted a new election because they reckoned Brexit will get them more votes. So after that they might agree to return to government. But if this would then be a government where they have a majority, then the other side might refuse to cooperate. Either way, opinon polling says more northern Irish would vote for leaving the Uk and joining th south if Brexit happens, and especially if there is a physical border created. Which May has not denied will happen. Its armed guards and barbed wire, or the Irish will simply ignore it.

News consensus was that this will never be negotiated in time, so heading for the Uk just leaving with no deal. Spin all about this being not as bad as it plainly will be.

 

[dandelion]

Trump is in need of a foreign policy success early in his presidency. The success available is the outline of a trade deal with the UK, something he calls "signature ready". This need trumps (!) economics. The UK is a developed economy so it is not going to offer the sort of cut-price competition coming from Mexico and China.

But equally, what could it offer that will benefit Britain?

The sort of development that Trump would like is (for example) where a UK car manufacturer opens a plant in the US rust belt. This would be providing jobs in the USA. It might be that components are manufactured in UK and assembly is in USA.

There arent any UK car companies. They are all foreign owned. Nor would there be any benefitsfor the Uk to doing this...unless the new trade deal made cars built in the Uk too expensive when imported to the US because of those pesky tariffs. I agree, the kind of deal Trump wants is one where our business moves to the US. Not just ours, everyones.

Similarly he would like a deal for the banks to all move to new York. An interview today with one of them said they are already well along with opening their new European subsidiary.

I still believe the EU is the best option for Britain and you should try to stay as close as possible. Like May said, you will leave the EU, but you will stay a part of Europe.

There was an interesting line in her speech where she said something about (roughly) 'in the future, people will look back and see this as a turning point'. Her tone of voice seemed rather ominous to me, though admittedly she always sounds that way. I did wonder whether a little irony had crept in to the speech and she could not resist being prophetic about what a mistake this would be seen to be in the future.

 

[dandelion]

ANd on a lighter note....http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38652708

The latest report from the government OBR says that UK public finances are unsustainable.

Osborne has been much rubbished about the need for an emergency budget following a vote to leave, but it still looks like he was right. There was a need for such a budget, it has just proved politically inexpedient to hold it. Though it is hard to see what in reality it could have done.

The OBR projects public debt to rise from current 82% of GDP to 234% by 2066. No idea why they choose those particular dates, but I assume they mean it as an example of current projections. They predict government borrowing to rise through the next parliament.

The report highlighted the NHS as an area which has received increased spending. Not sure this is true if you lump together cuts in local authority social care budgets, which costs have effectively been transferred to the NHS, but they would be perfectly correct to highlight that this is a crunch area where we are already spending less than almost all comparable countries, and where the public will be demanding increases.

Though of course, the government policy for getting out of this slump has been to cut taxes and cut spending. hasnt worked, and they are instead seeing deteriorating finances. The nation needs higher corporation taxes...oh dear, May just threatened to cut them.

The NHS and cuts to same destroyed the last conservative administration. May be it will destroy this one too.

 

[Freddie53]

I've read many of the posts. I want to make a few observations.

Consider this to be nine posts. Not one long post. Several of you have posted many posts since my last one.

1. It is apparent that Russia had a hand in how Brexit and Trump came to be. Now what is to be done about it? Trump is on a collision course with many Republicans and his own appointments to the cabinet which they may or may not get confirmed.

As much as I don't like Trump being president, his latest comments aren't as bad as I first thought. NATO is obsolete. Then Trump added that we need NATO. The reason Trump said that NATO is obsolete was because NATO is not equiped to deal with the refugee crises and the terrorists organizations. That doesn't mean that NATO needs to disband. There is a point there. NATO as one military unit needs to come up with plans to deal with terrorism in NATO nations.

2. The US did not vote for Trump to be president. Welcome to the new US fascist state! Hillary received almost three million more votes than Trump. Hillary lost three rust belt states. How? Very simple! Republicans found a path to control the election process in those three states that cost Hillary the election. The number of places to vote in the blue Democratic urban areas were reduced while the places to vote in the red suburban areas were increased. The result: There were waiting lines in the blue precincts of eight hours. In the red precincts , there was no line. Hillary lost Michigan by only 18,000 votes. Too many Democratic voters in Detroit weren't able to stand in line for 8 hours and had to go home. I'm sure it was more than 18,000.

The fact is that the base of the Republican Party has become a minority group due to the browning of America. So the Republicans are using very anti democratic means to stay in power. I dread to see what they come up with to appear to win in 2018!

The Republican FBI director broke the custom of not opening new inquisitions about Hillary within 20 days of an election. Then he announced that there was no evidence against Hillary after many had already voted early. The damage was done.

Fake news, some from Russia, had Hillary at death's door. And fake news had the FBI on its way to arrest Hillary. By the time that the fake news was declared false, the damage had been done.

Lock Her UP! Lock her UP! was chanted and all the news media carried it free for Trump. Then the media gave millions of dollars worth of free advertisement to the rally cries of Crocked Hillary! Crooked Hillary!

Since Hillary is such a horrific felon why has the rancor and investigations suddenly stopped! Trump said after the election that he didn't want to hurt the Clintons and he wasn't interested in seeing any more investigations into wrong doing by Clinton.

The Clinton Foundation was maligned by the media as well as Trump even though great work has been done through that foundation.

The ultra right Christians were strangely silent about Trump's recorded comments on how he liked to assault women. That was OK because our only other choice was Clinton who for some reason was to them the guardian of hell!

Trump is a pathological liar. He twitted much of the fake news himself. His personality tends forward being dictator. I have my fingers crossed that the concept of American democracy can survive him being president. Some of Trump's friends are racists. Some lean toward being Ne0-Nazi.

The Trump supprotors are not concerned ion the least.

Most of American media is owned by big conglomerates including Murdock that controls much of the UK news as well.

Hillary's campaign manager refused to listen to Bill Clinton and others that were aware that the blue firewall in the rust belt was not secure. The last few days of the election Trump campaigned in those rust belt states while Clinton campaigned in the states that she she already had secured.

The Democrats let the fact that the Republicans are the ones that shut down the government and were the cause of government paralysis.

Democrats failed to let those who were having trouble finding good jobs would lose their health insurance if the Republicans won.

The Republican slogan start creating new jobs is a complete myth. The US has had 75 continuous months of job growth. The unemployment rate is the lowest that it has been in years. That is the best in decades. True, the jobs don't pay as well as Americans are used to, but at least there are jobs.

When Obama took office, the nation was on the brink of economic collapse caused by the Republicans. Wonder which Democrat will save the nation from economic collapse after Trump is through destroying it?

Millions of Americans were duped into voting for Trump and Republicans whose plans are to take away all their benefits, their health insurance, etc. Most likely the people that voted for Trump will have their taxes increased while the very rich get great tax cuts.

3. A clear distinction needs to be made between the American people and the one percent and big multinational corporations whose headquarters are in New York, Houston, TX or London. That does not mean that the industry is in those cities.

In general the American people love the people of Britain as family. Those of you in Europe not having access to our media don' realize how what happens anywhere in the UK rates right along side what happens in the US. The same is almost the same for Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

The study of US history begins in England. The Magna Carta and the English Bill of Rights are considered major documents on which the law of the US uses as its foundation.

The Queen is beloved by a majority of Americans. The Queen's recent bout with a bad cold was major news here in the US as in making the 30 minute daily evening news.

Many of those Americans at the top don't love the US much less the UK. Their greed may well end the peace that Europe and the US has enjoyed. As with many empires, it is those that are too greedy that cause the entire fabric of the empire to collapse.

The greed is so pronounced that they couldn't care less if the average American's standard of living is below nearly every Western European nation.

4. Several have commented about the US wanting to have a second to none military and be willing to pay to defend Europe so that the American influence in the world would be more pronounced.

The price of paying for this huge military budget is being felt. The infrastructure of the US is in horrific state. The centers of many cities are on par with third world nations. The cost of meddling in the Middle East has cost taxpayers trillions of dollars, all borrowed and has to be paid back at some point in time.

As long as a nation's debt is to its own people and the debt doesn't increase at a faster rate than the economic growth, then the debt can be sustained. However, when the national debt is owed to other nations and the rate of national debt is growing faster than the economic rate then watch out. An economic collapse may be just around the corner.

5. Trump just in the last few days has praised the UK for leaving the EU. Trump wants a new trade deal with the UK as a priority.

That is exactly what Putin would love to see. The US and the UK in an economic war against the EU. That puts me in an awkward political position. Should May pull a hard Brexit I want the US along with Canada to have a trade agreement that is beneficial to all three nations. But I don't want that to result in a breakup of the US ties with Germany and France.

 

[Freddie53]

6. Empires often slowly decline. The end date that history gives as the end of an empire is often long after the capital city is really the head of an empire.

I've been thinking about that concerning the UK. The Queen is beloved around the world. As I read the posts about the three centuries with the dates given with the 20th century perhaps being from 1918 to 2016 and the Queen being ill, I got to thinking.

Brexit, the EU, NATO and all are important in history. But the year that the Queen passes from the scene may be the year that will be considered the date of the end of the British Empire.

The Queen is the head of state of several nations with 143 million people according to what I read on the Internet. One of the recent prime ministers of Australia is in favor of a republic. However, I read that she does not want to hold a referendum on Australia becoming a republic as long as Elizabeth is still alive.

What will happen in the other nations other than the UK when the Queen is no longer on the scene. Will a movement to become republics become a reality in Canada, Australia and New Zealand? Will the Commonweath that the Queen championed become obsolete?

7. Considering point six. Is it too late for the UK to build a free trade association within the Anglosphere which could include or not include the US?

Is it too late to set up a federal or confederation of a super state of the UK, Canada (without Quebec) Australia, and New Zealand? What I'm suggesting is a situation similar to Hong Kong and China. Those nations i mentioned could be added to the current four nations of the UK with each being somewhat independent yet sharing the same foreign policy and military etc.

8. The Commonwealth. If the UK looks to the world instead of Europe can the Commonwealth develop into a free trade association?

Should the UK pull that off, that might put this free trade association in the driver's seat to be the dominant trade association in the years to come. India is expected to pass China in population and the Indian economy is finally surging some. Canada and Australia have the room and potential to have great economic growth in the next century. Perhaps not at the level that the US had from 1800 to 1900, but still much faster than the median rate for the rest of the world!

9. The EU. I am going to appear to be speaking out of both sides of my mouth! I can see a great disaster looming for the UK if there is a hard Brexit.

That doesn't mean the the EU will prosper and grow.

The austerity policies of the EU for the past decade or more have put Germany in a position of economic growth while the rest of continental Europe is having slow growth or being close to economic collapse.

A Germany against the rest of the EU is not going to end well.

The irony is that the only nation benefiting from the EU economic policies other than Germany has been the UK. Germany needs the UK according to several articles I've recently read.

The number of nations in the EU that might have an exit vote tells a tale! I've read that France, the Netherlands and Spain have political movements to also hold an exit referendum. I believe that France and Spain both are in the top five economic powers of the EU. Their exit of the EU would be a disaster for the EU.

My take is that the EU is fatally flawed. Why? Most things that are half ass don't end well!

The eurozone is flawed because in order for several nations to share the same currency, it requires a fiscal union. The US dollar is the world's medium of exchange. Should that change, the economic result would be a disaster tot the US.

I do not blame the leaders of Germany for the problem. But the fact remains that Germany is the dominant economic power. That means that for the EU, the medium of exchange is the German euro.. I don't believe that Merkel has done anything to cause this to happen. It is an economic reality.

The euro is from an economic standpoint a German currency used by the rest of the eurozone in the same way the dollar is for the world. When as a result of WWII the dollar replaced the pound, that affected the UK greatly.

This problem can be fixed two ways: One, do away with the euro. Two, the EU becomes a super state with a single fiscal policy, single military, single foreign policy etc. Then the euro can benefit all the EU equally.

Case in point. The red states in the US are anti tax and anti federal government. The blue states are pro tax and pro government.

Reality: The red states get more dollars back from the federal government that they pay in taxes to the federal government. The blue states pay in more in taxes than they get back in government money.

That has benefited the US in general greatly and has been happening now for decades.

So, the red states want to reduce taxes so the blue states can keep more of their money at home and the red states will have much less to spend since the blue states won't be supporting them any longer.

Try to explain that to the Trump voters. It is simple math, but the Trump voters will never even listen to the real facts.

Trump policies could lead to even more growth for the blue states and economic decline for the red states.

The reality is that if Trump and Co do decentralize the federal government, the economic results will be disastrous to the US. It could bring down the US as being a super power. The US doesn't like the term empire and colonies, so we use the term super power. The USSR was also a super power. No, not really. It was an empire that collapsed!

The lessons for the EU are right there. The EU has to do what it needs to do or get off the pot! The EU won't survive in the present organization for long. Perhaps a few decades, but no new real nation will ever be created from the present EU model.

The US President, Congress and Supreme Court model or the parliamentary model used by most of Europe can be made to lead to a new nation. With the vast amount of movement in a true nation, a sense of being European would in short time over ride being German or French etc.

Here in the US many people including me are all 100 % American. At the same time, I just learned about a third church in England where my ancestors went to church and are buried. Do to someone else in the family's research, I found pictures of the church where ancestors from the 1500s and 1600s went to church and the area where they lived.

One ancestral church is in the Lake District. This new church is in Yorkshire in if I looked at the map correctly northern England. It is still a rural area having about the same number of people as it did in the 1500s, less than a 1000.

I'm very proud of my English ancestry. No doubt, I look English. That comes from my mother. My dad's heritage includes Ulster Scot. I know of the town in Northern Ireland where his ancestors with the same last name as mine came! Dad said he was Irish. Maybe so, but this new English church in Yorkshire is the ancestral home of my Dad's grandmother!

But I am not going to lead a movement for the state I live to become a part of the UK or Ireland!

I don't see the present EU being able to in time lead to people in Europe to put being European above being French, German, etc. It won't start to happen until a confederation such as Canada has or a federation like Germany and the US have for the being European first to really take hold in Europe.

Apparently it is not ever going to take hold in the UK!

 

[dandelion]

I've read many of the posts. I want to make a few observations.

In the Uk there has been much interest in Trump in the media. I am sure he is seeking to get an ally in the british government, so he can get a victory on terms of at least good mood music over new kinds of trade deals. Quite how this would make much difference to anything in reality I dont know. The UK and US are deep rivals in terms of the finance industry and some idustrials, and it isnt obvious there are any mutually beneficial quid pro quo which could be suddenly brought forward.

There was a restrospective this week, about other US presidents who have been just as divisive as Trump. Such an Lincoln. I gather he also became president despite only getting a minority of the national vote.

1. It is apparent that Russia had a hand in how Brexit and Trump came to be.

No surprise there. But they might have picked the wrong horse! Although their best tactic is probably to smear both candidates so as to make them ineffectual.

NATO is obsolete. Then Trump added that we need NATO.

I would say we do need it until such time as it can be replaced, but it is not viable for the US to be facing off Russia over control of Europe.

Republicans found a path to control the election process in those three states that cost Hillary the election.

Again Lincoln. And some other presidents they mentioned. Politicians lying and cheating is not new. Certainly no surprise they bend rules their way as far as the law permits.

The fact is that the base of the Republican Party has become a minority group due to the browning of America.

AGain mirrored in the Uk. Survey data suggests the number of UK voters who support the conservative party is about 26%. 19% labour. 33% dont vote for anyone.

Fake news,

Although the internet has made some new twists, it isnt really new. Traditional newspapers have always done this

Most of American media is owned by big conglomerates including Murdock that controls much of the UK news as well.

Again, form changes but not new.

3. A clear distinction needs to be made between the American people and the one percent and big multinational corporations

Indeed. Sadly britain seems to be going the opposite way under May. Did you notice she threatened to undercut EU tax rates if they do not make a deal? That would be undercutting US tax rates too. Doubt Trump will be happy.

Many of those Americans at the top don't love the US much less the UK. Their greed may well end the peace that Europe and the US has enjoyed.

Globalisation has divested the rich of even a national loyalty, because they can just move production anywhere.

The price of paying for this huge military budget is being felt.

Akin to the Uk post wars. Its America's turn to make tough decision on downsizing its world reach.

The US and the UK in an economic war against the EU.

It would be a world economic war, and while the US could survive a policy of isolationism, the Uk cannot.

 

[dandelion]

But the year that the Queen passes from the scene may be the year that will be considered the date of the end of the British Empire.

if so, the Brexiteers are really really playing the nationalist card at the wrong moment.

Is it too late for the UK to build a free trade association within the Anglosphere which could include or not include the US?

Its irrelevant. The Uk chose to join the EU and make trade links there, because it understood this was the only viable choice. If it now throws away the trade it has built up in that time, which seems increasingly likely, it will not be possible to simply replace it. There are no new trade possibilities which will open up from leaving the EU. It will just be a desperate scramble to recue what we can.

Should the UK pull that off, that might put this free trade association in the driver's seat to be the dominant trade association in the years to come.

These are all pretty developed nations. They will not see massive growth, and frankly do not want massive growth. What will happen is undeveloped nations reaching the same levels of economic activity, and most likely become more self sufficient and therefore trading less.

I can see a great disaster looming for the UK if there is a hard Brexit.

Yep, so can I. Doesnt make any difference how well polished May's speech is.

That doesn't mean the the EU will prosper and grow.

Indeed. But I do think a fortress EU is a better option to face fortress US.

 

[Freddie53]

Indeed. But I do think a fortress EU is a better option to face fortress US.

You have a point from the standpoint of economics and the big American global corporations. Unfortunately, that is what can determine the standard of living for the people.

However, on the level of the people themselves, as I have stated before, the percentage of Americans willing to go to war to support Canada should Canada be attacked is close to the same percent that would support the US going to war if we ourselves were attacked.

No other nation comes remotely close except the United Kingdom which received a rating of around 70 % To defend the US and /or Canada was around 90 % If I remember the results of the poll correctly.

You tend to look at the economic consequences more than I do. I tend to look to who the people consider to be our real friends. Even Obama said that the UK was America's closest ally.

The love for the big cats in either or both nations isn't that great for either you or me!

I understand the fact that there is competition between London and New York concerning the financial market.

Still, I tend to look at the culture, the people.

I don't know if you really comprehend how the common people feel about Great Britain. As a family member once said. England is not a foreign country. In this family member's view, we Americans should not trust foreigners. bit England (his word) isn't a foreign country.

There is a reservoir of love for Britain by a large segment of Americans that simply is not there for any other nation except Canada. The order as I recall was Canada, the UK, Australia, Germany and Israel. as the top five with New Zealand being somewhere in the top ten.

Again, I know that who the American people love as family doesn't correspond to how the big global corporations believe and act. They, (the global corporations) don't give a rat's ass about the American people. Why should I expect them to be any different about the British people?

It's my upbringing. I was taught to care for the people. To me having the greatest military in the history of the world means absolutely nothing to me if the American people are required to have a lower standard of living than the rest of the developed world in order to maintain that huge army.