Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

dandelion

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As with your RaboBank comment on another thread, I think you are either quoting bad research or misunderstanding the research. It doesn't mean what you are saying it means.
Really? I think it is a question designed to ask people what they want to happen. Perhaps you could explain what you think it means?

The Rabobank assessment is also the latest in a trend where as the implications of Brexit become clearer, predictions keep getting worse and worse. The government has commisssioned its own independent research into Brexit but is currently refusing to publish the results. There is a lawsuit to try to make them publsh. If these had produced optimistic results they would have published them like a shot. So we must assume they are also dire.
 
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southeastone

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Latest yougov polling, 47% wrong to leave the EU, 42% right to leave the EU. trend towards remain modest but continuing. The figures started off pretty much the opposite way round when they began asking the question august 2016. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/uzdpdwbul2/YG Trackers - EU Tracker Questions_W.pdf#page=2

Yougov is a totally slewed platform anyway and they do not give poll size or source figures, interestingly I joined it about a year ago and gave false answers to surveys and found I was "targeted" with surveys which fitted my answers, when I started answering from another angle the surveys offered changed with the new view, it's all crap.
 
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I saw an interesting spin on May's slogan that 'no deal is better than a bad dea'l. The argument went that having persuaded the nation that she is serious about her slogan, when she does finally make a dea, whatever it is, l it must mean that it is a good deal... otherwise she would not have made it.

So when she finally comes forward and announces the uk is withdrawing its notice to leave the EU (as government lawyers have advised can be done), everyone will agree this must be a good deal, otherwise she would not have made it.
That's an interesting way of looking at it... :rolleyes:o_O
 

southeastone

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Jason

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Really? I think it is a question designed to ask people what they want to happen. Perhaps you could explain what you think it means?

The Rabobank assessment is also the latest in a trend where as the implications of Brexit become clearer, predictions keep getting worse and worse. The government has commisssioned its own independent research into Brexit but is currently refusing to publish the results. There is a lawsuit to try to make them publsh. If these had produced optimistic results they would have published them like a shot. So we must assume they are also dire.

There have been very many polls. Most are showing little change since the Brexit referendum. You've found one that says there's a change. It's meaningless. Find ten that say the same and it might have some credibility. But remember, in the UK we don't get polls right.
 

dandelion

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Yougov is a totally slewed platform anyway
It was pretty good at predicting the election result. They used a standard model which did ok, and tried a new constituency model, which managed to predict some of the oddball results such as Canterbury.

There have been very many polls.
And there has been a trend towards remain. Interesting to ponder quite how the government will deal with it if we are at 60/40 remain in years time.

.
 

Jason

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There's a lot of noise around the Brexit process, and many issues are unclear. However there is no obvious mechanism for the EU stopping the article 50 process. It would certainly need unanimity from the 27. If it were stopped the UK wouldn't simply return to being a member with rebate and euro opt-out - the 27 would not every one accept this. If there were to be a second referendum it would be on these new terms. In effect the UK would be voting on membership of the emerging EU nation state. It would be a vote for the end of the UK.
 

dandelion

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There's a lot of noise around the Brexit process, and many issues are unclear. However there is no obvious mechanism for the EU stopping the article 50 process.
Ther is the government legal advice that thy can simply wthdraw ther notification. there is the adice that May was never properly authorised to give notice. There is, as you say, the route of a new agreement from everyone, which would probably require some Uk concessions.

If it were stopped the UK wouldn't simply return to being a member with rebate and euro opt-out - the 27 would not every one accept this. If there were to be a second referendum it would be on these new terms. In effect the UK would be voting on membership of the emerging EU nation state. It would be a vote for the end of the UK.
No, the Uk would continue. But I agree with you and have posted before that the likely outcome of this brexit process is a UK more tightly integrated in the EU. Leave's problem is that they won by deceit, and when this becomes clear to everyone there will be an opposit backlash.

If you wanted to keep the UK semi detached from the EU, you should have voted for Cameron's remain, and your best chance of keeping as much distance as possible from the EU is to switch sides right now and grovel for the best remain deal you can.
 

southeastone

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Gross or net?

Well according to government figures just one example, non eu exports up a £billion in august alone against last year, eu exports up £1.5 billion on same, not too shabby for a broken country
 

Drifterwood

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Well according to government figures just one example, non eu exports up a £billion in august alone against last year, eu exports up £1.5 billion on same, not too shabby for a broken country

I would like to see good news, but people are taking advantage of the weak pound, whether they are tourists, gold buyers or simply product sourcing. I wonder if the dollar and or euro value is up though?
 

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I would like to see good news, but people are taking advantage of the weak pound, whether they are tourists, gold buyers or simply product sourcing. I wonder if the dollar and or euro value is up though?

The pound has levelled against the dollar and euro I think, brokers are making good noises on exchange rates going forward. Just out of interest do you track the euro against the dollar as well?
 

Jason

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Has there been a single good thing since the Brexit vote?

Exports up, most bullish CBI report ever, unemployment down, manufacturing output up, GDP up, stock market up. Every figure invites discussion, but there is plenty of headline good economic news since Brexit. There's bad news as well, including the pound trading lower than we would all like, though the pound is not into worrying territory and the future looks positive.
 
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dandelion

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most bullish CBI report ever,
I think you and I live in parallel universes.
the future looks positive.
And there you go again. Its more a waking nightmare approaching, where the UK is simply forced back into the EU, and the terms get worse with each passing day. Its one of those negotiating situations at a boot fair, where the stallholder names his price, you suggest half and then he says double. Then you say what he said in the first place, and he quadruples. And you buy it anyway. Thats how it will go.

We need the EU, we needed it when we joined and that was why we accepted bad terms to join. Then we spent 40 years improving those terms, even if some now do not like terms which Uk govenments deliberately fought to put in place. And that is precisely what is going to happen now. Brexocists will end up forcing the Uk into greater integration with the EU.

Jason, stop pushing to achieve the exact opposite of what you claim you want.
 

Jason

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Even Remainer Hammond in an unguarded moment called the EU "the enemy".

We have an orchestrated campaign of misinformation coming from the EU. Some of the worries and bad news stories are genuine; many are not.

What Brexiteers dream of right now is that Hammond is replaced by Gove and the UK suspends Brexit talks. As with many negotiations it is necessary to walk away for the other side to get serious. We should exit talks. We should set out that a divorce settlement has no basis in law and can only be discussed within the context of a trade deal.
 

dandelion

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Even Remainer Hammond in an unguarded moment called the EU "the enemy".
haha, well they are his enemy because his party is committed to an impossible course, and the EU is having none of it. Its all getting a bit personal because it is his career being ruined.

We have an orchestrated campaign of misinformation coming from the EU. Some of the worries and bad news stories are genuine; many are not.
Which are which then?

What Brexiteers dream of right now is that Hammond is replaced by Gove
The guy who said he wasnt up to being PM but his partner talked him into it?

As with many negotiations it is necessary to walk away for the other side to get serious.
Thats ridiculous. No one should engage in theatrics like that. Whats more, its the EU laughing at us, because their position is clear and they are the ones who have nothing to lose if we walk away. The UK is getting nowhere because we need the EU a lot more than they need us. Hammond needs the EU to save his career. May never expected to survive the process. (politically, I seriously hope we do not decend to assassination)