Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

[dandelion]

Well they do think Brexit wil be disastrous. The government has no considered Brexit position. It is just prevaricating and prevaricating until forced into a decision. And then it chooses remain each time. Their behaviour tells us they know the economic effects of 'no deal' wpuld be awful.

And incidentally, in this context a canada style deal amounts to no deal, because it means a sharp reduction in freedom to operate internationally for Uk companies. The UK needs a norway style result, or something imaginiative which amounts to the same thing. Switzerland apparently did that, but I gather the EU is unlikely to go that same route again because of the problems it has caused. So there is both precedent for a deal, and precedent explaining why there will be no new variant. But both these deals amount to the governmnt accepting things it has ruled out. But then, it said it wouldnt pay any money either.

You see, they KNOW they cannot leave with no deal, because the backlash would destroy the tory party when it all goes sour. They arent in this to help the Uk or even please voters, but to stay in power. If they did what they thought best for the UK we would never have given notice to leave.

Leave pulled a blinder by tricking voters into thinking Brexit would be at no cost. They dont care if everyone finds out this was a massive lie after it has happened. But the tories do, and so they are now paralysed not knowing which way to turn.

 

[Jason]

UK wealth inequality has decreased since 2010.

Wealth inequality in UK fell sharply following 2WW. It increased under Thatcher (but not to 1945 levels or anywhere near) and continued upwards under Blair/Brown.

Wealth inequality has increased under every Labour government ever. Unemployment has increased under every Labour government ever. The national debt has increased under every Labour government ever.

 

[dandelion]

Both the UK and the EU need a unique solution. It is not EFTA, EEA, not quite Canada. It is in the interest of both to find a solution.

No, it is not. The EU's interest is served by maintaining itself as a protected trading area. It cannot agree any deal which compromises that.

If the Uk wants SM/CU benefits then it has to take the things it now considers drawbacks too. Thats the only deal on offer. It always was. But for the EU there will be benefits if the Uk is excluded from its market, because of the transfer of industry from the Uk to EU which will take place.

The concept that has now reached the media is that of a common regulatory area for a transitional period.

Nope the idea reaching the mdia (before the leaks reversed direction) was that Ireland would shadow all EU rules in perpetuity. There would never be divergence. Its simply membership without taking part in making the rules.

I agree with you soft Brexit is crazy. But it is better than hard Brexit.

 

[Perados]

That's the problem running a coalition with an extreme party...

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...clude-phase-one-of-brexit-talks-politics-live

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ne-no-breakthrough-ireland-theresa-may-heads/

May is close to a deal with the EU and even the N.Ireland question could get solved (N.I. keeps on running all EU regulations).
Now threatens the DUP to stop supporting May... nice one.

 

[798686]

That's the problem running a coalition with an extreme party...

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...clude-phase-one-of-brexit-talks-politics-live

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...ne-no-breakthrough-ireland-theresa-may-heads/

May is close to a deal with the EU and even the N.Ireland question could get solved (N.I. keeps on running all EU regulations).
Now threatens the DUP to stop supporting May... nice one.

I guess because they're British, and don't like the thought of Northern Ireland being split from the UK and in a regulatory area with Ireland?

I can understand it, especially after Ireland’s recent tantrums, but I still think they'll agree to a deal.

 

[dandelion]

That's the problem running a coalition with an extreme party...

The Irish Pm said that Theresa May had agreed a deal. Until Arlene Foster heard about it and vetoed it. But she didnt say the Uk cant be a member of the CU/SM. She just said England and Ireland must get the same deal.

 

[Jason]

The Irish Pm said that Theresa May had agreed a deal. Until Arlene Foster heard about it and vetoed it. But she didnt say the Uk cant be a member of the CU/SM. She just said England and Ireland must get the same deal.

There has been extensive discussion between Con and DUP on this issue. The outline has been agreed. In the last round of negotiation May seems to have conceded a point that was not agreed with the DUP, so yes they have in effect vetoed it. However the expectation remains that a deal will be done.

The deal was not that NI remained part of CU/SM. I know the Remoaners are reporting it in this way, but these fifth columnists are wrong in this as in so much else.

 

[798686]

The Irish Pm said that Theresa May had agreed a deal. Until Arlene Foster heard about it and vetoed it. But she didnt say the Uk cant be a member of the CU/SM. She just said England and Ireland must get the same deal.

Which is why you've leapt the tracks and concluded England is staying in the Single Market?

 

[Jason]

That's the problem running a coalition with an extreme party...

The extreme party in the UK is Labour: Marxist, anti-semitic, with a leader who actively supports terrorism. There have to be questions around the parties that are voting with this vile and extreme party (SNP, LibDem, PC, the one Green MP) though if it came to it I don't think any of SNP, LibDem and PC could stomach a coalition with Labour.

DUP does not fit the definition extreme. They are a centre right party in economic terms (probably a bit to the left of May's Conservatives). Yes, they do have some old fashioned moral views, but that reflects the reality in Northern Ireland. Remember just about all elected members of this party have been subject to IRA death threats against them and their families, and many have witnessed appalling IRA outrages, including Arlene Foster. They are never going to surrender (their word) to pressure from Ireland. There's a view that Varadkar has played a clever game. He's created a drama knowing that he can present the UK's agreement as a surrender, and knowing this would so upset DUP that they would reject it.

 

[eorpach]

I can understand it, especially after Ireland’s recent tantrums, but I still think they'll agree to a deal.

I’d love to agree with you on this point, but there is no party in UK or Irish politics more intransigent than the DUP. Given what’s now unfolded, I highly doubt there is going to be political agreement on Phase 2 before January. Particularly as it seems that Arlene phoned May, which indicates that whatever level of advance knowledge Arlene had, she evidently couldn’t the deal to her senior party this morning and very publicly resiled from it.

2 hours later her party were on the BBC calling the Irish Government “cowboys”.

The British public are now about to see first hand just how dug in the DUP can get.

Given the highly predictable response of the DUP, alongside the bandwagon jumping of the SNP, the Major of London, the First Minister of the Wales, a Coucillor on Wokingham... would you not now agree that Ireland’s “tantrum” and the many ridiculing of Ireland, it’s motivations and it’s (non-existent) Presidential Election (by IDS) in the Brexit Press over the last few weeks has been entirely justified by today’s events in the UK?

 

[dandelion]

The deal was not that NI remained part of CU/SM. I know the Remoaners are reporting it in this way, but these fifth columnists are wrong in this as in so much else.

Ah well, the wording was such that the Irish could interpret it this way, but others might choose not to.

DUP does not fit the definition extreme. They are a centre right party

I think you judge from your own standards that Ghengis Khan was a liberal reformer.

The DUP aim in this is probably to destroy the good friday agreement. Stormont power sharing is already dead. They now want to abrogate the open border and international power sharing parts. They are using Brexit to accomplish this.

They want a hard Brexit and nothing else. But if hard Brexit proves impossible, I expect they will take any bribes they can get to stay on board with the tories. The alternative is soft brexit or remain, and labour is more likely to go that way, so they will stick with tories trying to separate the north and south of ireland.

They want a return to conflict.

They are probably quite desperate, because they see their side losing the battle to keep the north part of the UK. They risk precipitating the breakaway of N. ireland from the Uk right now.

 

[eorpach]

But you misunderstand May. Her job is not to get the best outcome for the Uk, but the best outcome for the conservative party. She works for the party, not the nation.

As you say, the strategy seems to be to announce a hard brexit policy, and then wait for it to be knocked down by external events.

The reason for this is clear. If the conservative alienate leave voters they would be alienating the majority of their supporters. So however much they might wish to remain in the EU, and work as hard as they can for this outcome, they cannot afford to be seen to be doing so. So their public strategy has to be to push Brexit and rely on others to show it is impossible.

The wonderful thing abour being an EU member is you get a veto. Veto to bank taxes, for example, which the UK insisted on recently. Next time round we will not be ablet o veto it, if we have stopped being a member. Today there was another wave of banks announcing branch closures. The infrastructure of UK banking is shrinking and this is going to undermine its national importance, just as Brexit will undermine its international importance. It might not be long before core banking has to be nationalised.

No, its just that the crazier she makes Brexit, the easier it is to stop it.

This is a pretty fascinating analysis. And O agree entirely with it.

Today’s events now indicate that the DUP are going to keep the rest of the UK in the Customs Union. Not the other way around.

That said, I doubt today’s events were part of the choreography.

The other point that your observation puts me in mind of:

If the UK end up in a form of regulatory convergence with the EU, post-Brexit, London’s diplomatic relationship with Dublin is going to assume a more profound importance - they’ll be whispering in the window at Dublin every time the EU is in the room writing a new directive or regulation.

 

[eorpach]

I app

How patronising. And pathetic.

Go back, re-write, and come back with something more constructive and less derisory.

I apologise the patronising tone. I left my frustration about the circular nature of this argument get in my way.

If there’s one silver lining from today’s disaster, it is that the UK is finally going to be pushed to confront the Custom Union / Single Market issue conundrum for NI / rUK.

 

[dandelion]

Today’s events now indicate that the DUP are going to keep the rest of the UK in the Customs Union. Not the other way around.

In this dance, the DUP is trying to engineer hard brexit and the severing of north and south. The tories are trying to engineer remain.

That said, I doubt today’s events were part of the choreography.

The EU is sick of prevarication and delay and is determined to force some action.

If the UK end up in a form of regulatory convergence with the EU, post-Brexit, London’s diplomatic relationship with Dublin is going to assume a more profound importance - they’ll be whispering in the window at Dublin every time the EU is in the room writing a new directive or regulation.

DUP wont like that. But fancy ireland becoming the dominant partner in the England-ireland relationship!

 

[Jason]

This evening Conservative and DUP politicians are meeting. It is quite possible that this is already in effect solved. We may be discussing a solved problem.

* If an agreement cannot be struck, that is that. The threat of Marxist Corbyn is a thousand times worse than anyone's worst Brexit scenario. The Conservatives will do what the DUP wants on this, rather than call an election. In effect May will present the DUP's requirement and Ireland (and the EU) either agree or don't agree. The option is agree, or no deal. It may be that it really is a detail and it can all be done with smiles and everyone will be happy. Or it may be some great impasse. I suspect it is a very small issue as May clearly felt she had an agreement.
* If there is an impasse, than of course the impasse could be broken. The alternative government that would be stable is a coalition between Con and LibDem. There is an implicit choice for LibDem. They can stay aloof and perhaps watch any possibility of a Brexit deal slip away. Or they can form a coalition and work for Brexit with a deal. I know LibDem are pledged to no Brexit, but this option isn't on the table. Do they prefer no deal or a deal?
* The perfect scenario for Conservatives would be to do a deal with both DUP and LibDem. I assume this is what is being looked at for spring 2019. It's easy once Brexit is done. Remember, DUP are a little to the left of Con, and not so very far from LibDem. The big disagreement is Brexit, nothing else.

There's also the issue around whether DUP would ultimately go as far as forcing an election. Remember Arlene Foster saw her father shot and very badly injured by the IRA, and as a child she was on a school bus which was bombed by IRA. And Corbyn supports the IRA so strongly that he was arrested for his support of a convicted IRA terrorist murderer. DUP would do anything to stop the Corbyn evil coming to power. This includes praying. And herein lies the real problem for the Conservatives. It is possible that DUP would force an election and trust that God would not allow an evil man to become PM. Unionists have won (in NI) every single election in NI ever. They have become pivotal in the UK government just at the time that their voice needs to be heard. It is just about possible that DUP really would see it as a trust in God issue.

 

[eorpach]

In this dance, the DUP is trying to engineer hard brexit and the severing of north and south. The tories are trying to engineer remain.

They aren’t particularly. They lack that foresight. Their position on Brexit is a direct knee-jerk reaction to the prevailing political situation in Ireland: on the ENTIRE island of Ireland, they are the only - the ONLY - political party in favour of Brexit.

The DUP commands 30% of the NI vote. Even the Ulster Unionist Party was against Brexit. This has the potential to make them very isolated come the next vote - if Unionism suffers financially they will swing back to the UUP.

Northern Ireland is the poorest region on the island of Ireland, the amongst the poorest in the UK. Meanwhile their neighbours to the south are - per capita - the 6th richest nation in the world.

The DUP’s best case is for the rUK to realise that the CU/SM is the least evil option after Brexit, and for them and the rest of the British political establishment to row in behind that - because today the DUP have thrown away an economic advantage that could have reversed the decline of the NI economy. Sturgeon must be watching on, slack-jawed, at what she’s witnessed.

DUP wont like that. But fancy ireland becoming the dominant partner in the England-ireland relationship!

Imagine!

Well whatever happens the EU will remain massively important to the UK, as the UK remains to Ireland. This notion that the UK will just float away from Europe is fantasy: London will always watch every EU move very closely going forward.

 

[Jason]

In this dance, the DUP is trying to engineer hard brexit and the severing of north and south.

The DUP's goal was set out by Ian Paisley senior: reunification under the crown. DUP emphatically does not want a hard border. It wants no border at all. It sees inevitable pull for Ireland to converge with the UK. As the EU collapses (a religious view) then there will be mutual need for Ireland north and south to work together.

 

[Jason]

Meanwhile their neighbours to the south are - per capita - the 6th richest nation in the world.

Yes I'm aware of this. Ireland is 1.5x as wealthy per capita as the UK and on a par with Switzerland and Norway. And I just don't believe it! Anyone who travels knows Ireland doesn't look rich, and Irish people don't feel rich.

The solution is in oddities of the Irish economy. GDP is far, far larger than GNP. Companies based in Ireland are repatriating their wealth. The 2016 big increase in GDP was described by economists as meaningless and farcical. For any country with a lot of foreign investment, it is GNP that is a better measure, and even here it should be taken with a very big pinch of salt.

NI is certainly one of the poorest parts of the UK, in part as a legacy of the Troubles. NI badly needs the free trade boost of being outside CU/SM.

 

[eorpach]

The Conservatives will do what the DUP wants on this, rather than call an election. In effect May will present the DUP's requirement and Ireland (and the EU) either agree or don't agree.

Ultimately, the Conservatives will not take any action to destabilise the Good Friday Agreement. Uncertainty around a hard border will do that. They will / should fall on their minority government sword to prevent this from happening. And they may have to since Dublin really is serious about its brinkmanship with the EU - the EU as a whole will veto Phase 2 if Dublin is not satisfied.

May should never have entered into a Confidence and Supply agreement with a party that campaigned against the Good Friday agreement to begin with.

Plus, polling from the Queen’s University in Belfast indicates that the DUP do not speak for the majority of Unionism on this issue, let alone the majority of Northern Ireland (which voted to Remain).

The option is agree, or no deal. It may be that it really is a detail and it can all be done with smiles and everyone will be happy. Or it may be some great impasse. I suspect it is a very small issue as May clearly felt she had an agreement.

The DUP is perfectly capable of digging in on very small issues - ergo, an Irish Language Act. 11 months and counting.

* If there is an impasse, than of course the impasse could be broken. The alternative government that would be stable is a coalition between Con and LibDem. There is an implicit choice for LibDem. They can stay aloof and perhaps watch any possibility of a Brexit deal slip away. Or they can form a coalition and work for Brexit with a deal. I know LibDem are pledged to no Brexit, but this option isn't on the table. Do they prefer no deal or a deal?

That outcome makes a hard Brexit or exit from the CU/SM impossible for the Tories.

There's also the issue around whether DUP would ultimately go as far as forcing an election. Remember Arlene Foster saw her father shot and very badly injured by the IRA, and as a child she was on a school bus which was bombed by IRA.

She didn’t enter government to carry that with her into the Brexit breach. There is a Peace Process and the DUP has governed with Sinn Fein for a decade.

Unionists have won (in NI) every single election in NI ever.

Until the last one. In this year’s election they secured only 1 Assembly more than the next biggest party, Sinn Fein. And for quite some time they have held far fewer seats on Belfast City Council than Sinn Fein.

They have become pivotal in the UK government just at the time that their voice needs to be heard. It is just about possible that DUP really would see it as a trust in God issue.

Last gasp of a dying wasp in terms of UK nationwide politics. And no, even the DUP aren’t that fanatical IMHO.

 

[eorpach]

The DUP's goal was set out by Ian Paisley senior: reunification under the crown. DUP emphatically does not want a hard border. It wants no border at all. It sees inevitable pull for Ireland to converge with the UK. As the EU collapses (a religious view) then there will be mutual need for Ireland north and south to work together.

Surely you realise yourself that even if a day dawned that Ireland left the EU (presently inconceivable by everybody in Irish public life bar Ray Barrett), that the day would NEVER dawn when Ireland would re-enter into a political union with the UK? The DUP will never realise this aspiration. NI Demographics alone prevent it.