Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

dandelion

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The DUP's goal was set out by Ian Paisley senior: reunification under the crown. DUP emphatically does not want a hard border. It wants no border at all. .
I dont agree. Their support in N ireland is shrinking. Theyre desperate. They want to precipitate a clean break between north and south before reunification goes any further.
Thing is, I doubt even many DUP voters want this.

they are the only - the ONLY - political party in favour of Brexit.
And I just explained why.

if Unionism suffers financially they will swing back to the UUP.
I said, they are desperate. Willing to risk.

The DUP’s best case is for the rUK to realise that the CU/SM is the least evil option after Brexit, and for them and the rest of the British political establishment to row in behind that - because today the DUP have thrown away an economic advantage that could have reversed the decline of the NI economy.
The economy isnt important, except if it can be used to win votes. fanatics dont care about money, witness brexit. Their aim is to scupper north-south cooperation in all respects.

Ultimately, the Conservatives will not take any action to destabilise the Good Friday Agreement.
of course they will! theyre pushing brexit despite thinking it will be an economic disaster and not wanting it! What do they care about ireland?

Uncertainty around a hard border will do that. They will / should fall on their minority government sword to prevent this from happening.
Not a chance. The one issue they will act upon is the preservation of the tory party. whatever that coincides with.

May should never have entered into a Confidence and Supply agreement with a party that campaigned against the Good Friday agreement to begin with.
They had to. The tories future is tied to keeping faith with Leave supporters. To do that they had to demonstrate they are pushing forward Brexit in whatever way they can, and if that means DUP, then so be it. Now, their aim is to stop Brexit, but they can only do that in a way it patently fails or they are forced out of power. Getting DUP on board does not increase the likelihood of success with brexit, so thats a plus. Tories can only abandon brexit if they have demonstrated they tried everything to make it work.

Unless....they conclude that pushing on with brexit is worse for the party than a U turn. When that point is reached, they will flip. For example, more voters moving to remain.

The DUP is perfectly capable of digging in on very small issues - ergo, an Irish Language Act. 11 months and counting.
The DUP simply wanted to destabilise stormont and powersharing.

(Anyone who thinks the libs are going to ally with tories to assist brexit, after the way the tories comprehensively shafted the libs last time, is barking). The libs might be able to supplant tories as the main party of the right, if this continues as bad for the tories as it is thus far.

the DUP has governed with Sinn Fein for a decade.
But it isnt working for them. they are losing the argument.
 

eurotop40

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Yes I'm aware of this. Ireland is 1.5x as wealthy per capita as the UK and on a par with Switzerland and Norway. And I just don't believe it! Anyone who travels knows Ireland doesn't look rich, and Irish people don't feel rich.

The solution is in oddities of the Irish economy. GDP is far, far larger than GNP. Companies based in Ireland are repatriating their wealth. The 2016 big increase in GDP was described by economists as meaningless and farcical. For any country with a lot of foreign investment, it is GNP that is a better measure, and even here it should be taken with a very big pinch of salt.

NI is certainly one of the poorest parts of the UK, in part as a legacy of the Troubles. NI badly needs the free trade boost of being outside CU/SM.

In my perception the British feel rich and are not.
 

dandelion

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curious goings on at westminster. Apparently David Davis has said that 'regulatory alignment' or whatever the phrase is, will apply to all the UK. Inothr words -as I have said for a long time - the Uk will continue to follow all the EU ruls, just not make any of them.

The official line is still we wont belong to the CU or SM, but since we will be following all their rules, we will in effect have recret
ated them.

Jason and Joll, time for all the brexiteers who believe that the norway option is even worse than full membership to get behind remain.
 
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Surely you realise yourself that even if a day dawned that Ireland left the EU (presently inconceivable by everybody in Irish public life bar Ray Barrett), that the day would NEVER dawn when Ireland would re-enter into a political union with the UK?
I suspect this is the case.

Interestingly, I suspect the same is true, re: UK rejoining EU.

Eorpach has said some issues transcend economics - the Irish border may well be one, Brexit is another.

Why would anyone rejoin something they felt had enslaved them?
 
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Nice to see Switzerland on the EU's second list of tax havens (although not the blacklist).

The list also included the likes of Jersey and Isle of Man, however they've been cooperative and promised to change legislation.

I take it Switzerland have not... ;)

https://euobserver.com/economic/140165
 
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eurotop40

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I suspect this is the case.
Interestingly, I suspect the same is true, re: UK rejoining EU.
Eorpach has said some issues transcend economics - the Irish border may well be one, Brexit is another.
Why would anyone rejoin something they felt had enslaved them?

Therefore the future is - alas - not so bright for the UK...
 

Jason

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@eorpach May should never have called an election. However she did and we are where we are.

We are standing on the edge of an abyss. Our opposition is a party that if elected will destroy the world economy. He has Marxist policies which would utterly destroy the UK economy. Think renationalisation of industry by confiscation of shares - and think of all the foreign nations and organisations that hold UK shares. Think default on UK sovereign debt. The world economy would not withstand a Corbyn government. We've already had some UK generals speaking out saying that they would not be willing to serve a government led by Corbyn. Probably a Corbyn victory at the ballot box would lead to the Queen dissolving parliament and the government being carried out by the Privy Council, ie a military coup. The USA will not tolerate a Corbyn government. The evil that is Momentum has to be stopped, and we have to do absolutely anything to stop it.

Everyone know that the DUP pact stresses the Good Friday Agreement. It could have been avoided if LibDem or SNP had been willing to form a pact with Con. These are the only alternatives. These wouldn't play. In effect the DUP pact was the least bad option.

The global requirement that Corbyn must not come to power trumps everything else. It trumps Brexit, the Good Friday Agreement, absolutely everything. There is nothing in politics that is more important.

If Corbyn becomes PM then the Irish economy will collapse, such is the entanglement of UK and Irish trade. I don't mean something like the recent financial crisis but something that plunges Ireland into abject poverty. Of course it would be even worse in UK.
 

Jason

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Nice to see Switzerland on the EU's second list of tax havens (although not the blacklist).

The list also included the likes of Jersey and Isle of Man, however they've been cooperative and promised to change legislation.

I take it Switzerland have not... ;)

https://euobserver.com/economic/140165

I see Mongolia is a tax haven. Who wants to invest in Mongolia?
 
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Nice to see Switzerland on the EU's second list of tax havens (although not the blacklist).
The list also included the likes of Jersey and Isle of Man, however they've been cooperative and promised to change legislation.
I take it Switzerland have not... ;)
https://euobserver.com/economic/140165

The EU is surely not wrong to this regard.
 

dandelion

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Report commissioned for the EU by Irish professor John Temple Laing. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2017/596825/IPOL_STU(2017)596825_EN.pdf

It basically says that if you want succesful international trade, you need a trading agreement with other nations. leave agree with this and want to make some new ones. But laing advises it is a delusion to think there are alternative ways to do this other than the EU model. The deeper the trade relations, the more integrated the states must become.

Brexit can only have three outcomes.

1)the Uk becomes isolated and poor.
2) The Uk rejoins the EU. EEA or membership would do regarding trade, but leavers seems to agree EEA is in fact worse than full membership because you dont make the rules.
3) The UK joins some other trading block which has identical problems to EU membership, because anyone who ever makes a trade deal always wants something in return which you dont like. But there arent any alternatives which would match the EU in benefits.

The only logical way to look at the whole Brexit process is that it was designed to harm the UK.

Temple Laing also warns that the Uk cannot achieve what it wanst unless it decides what it wants. The Irish are doing us a favour by insisting we make clear commitments on the Irish border, and indeed so is the DUP if they are also demanding clarity. The only outcome of fudge now will be dissatisfaction and failure in the future.
 

Jason

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3) The UK joins some other trading block which has identical problems to EU membership, because anyone who ever makes a trade deal always wants something in return which you dont like.

The EU is unusual in that it is seeking to develop a trading agreement into a sovereign state. It is perfectly possible to be part of a trading agreement without becoming part of a new sovereign state - indeed such a concept would lead ultimately to the creation of a single global state.

The EU is in part a trading agreement, in part a protectionist club. To some extent all trading agreements have an element of mutual protectionism, but the EU has taken this to an extreme. Fortress Europe tries to perpetuate soft socialism - high labour costs and cheap goods kept out. Its failure is inevitable, but it will take a while to get there.
 
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Perados

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I suspect they may have included the UK if we weren't not still in the EU... ;)
Right now suggestions come up to put the USA on the list, if Trump realize his tax reform.

So, probabl yBritain isn't on the list because you are a member.



Fun fact about the USA...
If you are an American and leave the nation to sace some tax, the USA demands the difference you would safe for them. (So, nothing with saving tax).
If you go to the extreme and also give away your american citizenship, you will have to pay an instant tax of 20% of all your property... only then you can leave and pay your tax somewhere else.

Somehow I like it ;)
 
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dandelion

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The EU is in part a trading agreement, in part a protectionist club. To some extent all trading agreements have an element of mutual protectionism, but the EU has taken this to an extreme. Fortress Europe tries to perpetuate soft socialism - high labour costs and cheap goods kept out. Its failure is inevitable, but it will take a while to get there.
You do say the oddest things Jason.

Free trade is no guarantee of benefit. What society needs is a system whereby everyone carries out a share of the jobs which need to be done for the nation to prosper, and each receives a share of the national income. Whatever that system is, it must guarante everyone a part. We live in a time when society could organise itself to minimise the amount of work which needs to be done by individuals, yet manufacturing would still function. Yet somehow money must pass to workers so they can buy goods (always assuming we continue to use money and dont simply give people goods)

There is no reason why a fortress europe cannot function. Keynes argued quite some time ago that international trade must balance. There can never be a permanent imbalance to or from anyone, no country can make an eternal profit. That being so, there is really no benefit to international trade, beyond a minimum degree of unique supply from one area or another, but it is very rare that something can only come from one place. There has to be a mechanism to limit flow of trade one way anywhere, and therefore a fortress approach is both inevitable and desireable.

Soft socialism, as you put it, is obviously desireable. Try to take it away form the Uk population, and see how quickly you would be voted out of office. All tory governments have been socialists for quite some time, however much they try to minimise this. High labour costs are highly desireable in that they allow money to recycle into the hands of the work force, who need that money to buy goods. If they cant buy goods, then nor can anyone sell any goods.

The EU is unusual in that it is seeking to develop a trading agreement into a sovereign state.
The EU isnt seeking to do anything. It is a civil service which operates a set of rules agreed by members states in international treaties between them. The power to change those treaties lies with the members, vested in their governments, with all having vetos. What anyone working for the EU might believe is quite beside the point. All members control the future of the EU, which currently includes us, though you wish the UK to give up the power it currently has to control the EU. Daft. The EU is our closest neighbour and shares a viwpoint and history with us. We will continue with it as our most important trading partner, and we will continue to obey its rules, But you wish us to throw away the power to control it which we currently have.

indeed such a concept would lead ultimately to the creation of a single global state.
We already live in a world which is very largely one single global state. It is not possible for someone to espouse free trade (which you seem to do), but simultaneously oppose the creation of a world state. interational trade requires international cooperation and agreements how this trade will be conducted. The term 'state' becomes meaningless, because it is more a world federation, where all the member states have input and vetos on what happens.

The EU is unique in the degree of power it gives to every member to control its future. Most international organisations give nowhere near as much power to every member. Indeed, the EU is remarkable that it does this. There is no better organisation we could belong to, and our membership gives us massive world clout. It would be a very good idea for every person alive if the EU model was extended to the entire world, instead of the terrible economic arrangements most of them have to put up with. Thatcher thought so. So did heath. Or Major, or Cameron. But people have to come to this realisation for themselves.

Brexit is a self serving organisation which aims to destroy the wealth of the UK. I dont know who its backers realy are, but they do not have the best interests of the UK or Uk voters in mind.
 
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Jason

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Free trade is no guarantee of benefit.

But it is. There are very many statements of this view, as here.

There seems to be a politco-economic blindness in our society.

* In political terms our society has rightly deplored fascism and the murder of 17m. However Communism - which murdered upwards of 100m - is somehow tolerated. I don't see students on any university campus wearing a swastika t-shirt, but I do see hammer and sickle and images of Che Guevara. Fascism went through the Nuremburg process. Unfortunately we haven't had a similar process for Communism. In the UK we have the sad position where a silly man - Corbyn - can propose Communism and ride high in the polls. Communism is evil. It is the biggest single source of human-caused misery.

* Free trade is the best system that exists and benefits everyone. Yes there are corrections in the margin. Nations need standards and need to avoid predatory trading. However the basic concept is pretty much a truism. Every non-free system under-performs and ultimately makes people

It's an issue for education. People need to be aware of what has happened in Venezuela and be aware that Corbyn represents poverty.
 
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It would be a very good idea for every person alive if the EU model was extended to the entire world, instead of the terrible economic arrangements most of them have to put up with. Thatcher thought so.
No she didn't.

She was an advocate of free trade and free markets, hence supporting the single market.

However, she came to realise and understand the political aims and repercussions of ever closer Union, and then predicted it would all collapse with Britain left (again) to pick up the pieces.

She said it was the greatest folly of the 20th century (possibly an exaggeration), which hardly sounds like an endorsement for rolling it out worldwide...
 
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Jason

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From Martin Schulz today:

“there to be a constitutional treaty to create a federal Europe… the treaty will be presented to the member states and those who are against should just leave the European Union… We want the United States of Europe”.

This is a coherent view-point. Indeed it does seem to be the only end-point of the euro project. What is welcome about it is its clarity.

Meanwhile it seems that at least some in Catalonia are considering Catexit. Presumably regulatory alignment would allow Catalonia to leave the EU (ie the SM and CU) while keeping open borders with Spain and France.