Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

[798686]

From Martin Schulz today:

“there to be a constitutional treaty to create a federal Europe… the treaty will be presented to the member states and those who are against should just leave the European Union… We want the United States of Europe”.

This is a coherent view-point. Indeed it does seem to be the only end-point of the euro project. What is welcome about it is its clarity.

Meanwhile it seems that at least some in Catalonia are considering Catexit. Presumably regulatory alignment would allow Catalonia to leave the EU (ie the SM and CU) while keeping open borders with Spain and France.

Told you it'd be whittled down to a smaller number of nations...

 

[Perados]

Ni nation will leave the EU and we won't have the USE by 2025... this speech was for SPD members only and not even for the German public. It's a pathetic try to convince the left to agree to a big coalition. He was talking about so many topics that you could find at least one you can agree to.

You eat nothing as hot as you cook it.

 

[dandelion]

From Martin Schulz today: “there to be a constitutional treaty to create a federal Europe… the treaty will be presented to the member states and those who are against should just leave the European Union… We want the United States of Europe”.

But of course, the Uk had already created a two tier EU for itself. Whatever might become if this, if we continue as members, we will ensure that the two tier persists. In fact it seems pretty much the arrangement leavers really are seeking. The Uk would end up leading the minority block enjoying all the perks and still vetoing anything it doesnt fancy.

However, if the Uk leaves know, Schulz might just get his way. And then when we rejoin (which we will), We will have to join the new united europe. And that will be the fault of the Brexit campaign.

 

[798686]

But of course, the Uk had already created a two tier EU for itself. Whatever might become if this, if we continue as members, we will ensure that the two tier persists. In fact it seems pretty much the arrangement leavers really are seeking. The Uk would end up leading the minority block enjoying all the perks and still vetoing anything it doesnt fancy.

However, if the Uk leaves know, Schulz might just get his way. And then when we rejoin (which we will), We will have to join the new united europe. And that will be the fault of the Brexit campaign.

Doesn't sound at all like the nations hold the control, Dandy - especially since the EU would like nation states rendered redundant.

Sounds very much like the EU will kick out those who don't conform.

 

[Perados]

Sounds very much like the EU will kick out those who don't conform.

without Brexit the kick out, or exit never would have become a realistic option.

So, if you would have stayed, the way of the EU probably would have been a different one. Even if I still don't believe the EU will encouage anyone to leave, now or in the future.

 

[798686]

Ni nation will leave the EU and we won't have the USE by 2025... this speech was for SPD members only and not even for the German public. It's a pathetic try to convince the left to agree to a big coalition. He was talking about so many topics that you could find at least one you can agree to.

You eat nothing as hot as you cook it.

I'm afraid it will happen, and it's exactly why we need to leave.

Even more disturbing are the rumours the EU is planning to offer us a basic FTA, covering goods (which suits the EU), but not services (which are crucial to the UK).

A bad deal is not better than no deal. I'm wondering if it might be better to just walk away now, and make the €50 bn contingent on the EU being sensible re: aviation landing rights and auto type approval, etc...

The only real benefit of striving for a deal is to secure a transition period - but again, only if what we're transitioning to is worthwhile.

 

[Perados]

I'm afraid it will happen, and it's exactly why we need to leave.

Even more disturbing are the rumours the EU is planning to offer us a basic FTA, covering goods (which suits the EU), but not services (which are crucial to the UK).

I guess these rumours are just what they are, rumours. Spread by one or the other side to get what they want. It's probably a pathetic try to create fear.

Why should the offer Britain such an obviously bad deal, ifa real solution already was so close? [/quote]

A bad deal is not better than no deal. I'm wondering if it might be better to just walk away now, and make the €50 bn contingent on the EU being sensible re: aviation landing rights and auto type approval, etc...
[/quote] looks like fear works

The only real benefit of striving for a deal is to secure a transition period - but again, only if what we're transitioning to is worthwhile.

so, not the transition period is important, but to what it leads to (the deal)

 

[798686]

I guess these rumours are just what they are, rumours. Spread by one or the other side to get what they want. It's probably a pathetic try to create fear.

Why should the offer Britain such an obviously bad deal, ifa real solution already was so close?

I hope you're right.

 

[Jason]

In the last few minutes the chatter is that there is a stage one Brexit deal, but that the DUP hasn't quite signed off on it. The DUP will delay for every moment they can. Their negotiating tactic is to push for that little bit more. If they get it then it is a victory. If they don't it is still a victory as they can demonstrate they were the ones trying. I'm guessing there will be a deal Friday afternoon.

If we do get a deal - and I know it hasn't quite happened - then we go on to trade talks. The elephant in the room is the £50bn divorce bill. The idea is that without a trade deal then the UK would walk away from the divorce bill. This has been denied, which is why I think it is true. It is the softest possible form of diplomacy as it raises the possibility while denying it. I think the reality is that if there is no trade deal there will be rare consensus in parliament - MPs will vote to not pay the divorce bill. And the EU knows this.

I'm thinking therefore that we will get a decent trade deal. The EU seems ready to offer something on goods. The key one of course is services, and this is where the negotiation will be. I suspect the UK will not agree on goods (which is what the EU really wants) without services. And no deal means no juicy £50bn to the EU.

 

[Perados]

Btw... a short time ago siemens reported the will cut 6000 jobs world wide. They want to be less involved in energy.


Now it's GE with 12000 jobs and the same reason.

 

[Jason]

The DUP's parliamentary party has signed off on the deal BUT the DUP's assembly party has still not signed. In effect the DUP in London has agreed but the DUP in Belfast has not made a decision. The assumption is that the DUP in Belfast will respect the view of their colleagues in London, and that it is just a technical process to get to their agreement, but anything could still happen. They are talking through the night.

There's a suggestion that Theresa May is going to Brussels before Friday breakfast, so I suppose it could all be done before most people are even awake. If a deal is sorted then May will have earnt her breakfast. Ulster fry?

 

[dandelion]

Doesn't sound at all like the nations hold the control, Dandy - especially since the EU would like nation states rendered redundant.

if you reckon the EU wishes to become a nation state, it can hardly think they are redundant.

Sounds very much like the EU will kick out those who don't conform.

No. Some german minority party wants to expand the EU. The EU is a civil service which does as it is told. If the members tell it to expand it will, if members (such as us) veto changes, then it will not.

I think you should be much more worried the UK tory government might soon be knocking on your door and arresting you as a soviet spy fomenting insurrection in the UK. No? sounds as likely as an out of control EU!

Interesting question time right now, discusisng whether the Uk would be better or worse off if it leaves the EU. Seems nothing is settled and all to play for. Guess thats why this nonsense is all being re-published now, because the national mood is moving against Brexit.[/QUOTE]

 

[dandelion]

Even more disturbing are the rumours the EU is planning to offer us a basic FTA, covering goods (which suits the EU), but not services (which are crucial to the UK).

er, it doesnt cover services now even while we are a member! I'm not sure the wto and free trade agreements even cover services either.

A bad deal is not better than no deal.

Er, no deal IS a bad deal, so are you talking nonsense? Youre just saying a bad deal is not better than a bad deal, how edifying.

I'm wondering if it might be better to just walk away now, and make the €50 bn contingent on the EU being sensible

Are you? thats a curiosly leave propaganda-esque thing to say. So, suppose the Uk government has promised to pay the pensions of Uk based civil servants working for it. Are you saying it can legitimately change its mind and not pay? it might have the legal ability to simply turn around and decide not to pay, but is that right? if it did that, would anyone in the future work for the government, knowing it simply cancels people's pensions? If it is wrong to cancel the pensions of UK civil servants, why is it right to cancel those of people working on behalf of the UK but based in brussels?

What nation in its right mind would make a trade deal with the Uk, if it knows the Uk simply turns round and repudiates trade deals when it fancies?

The only real benefit of striving for a deal is to secure a transition period.

Thats really daft. Why didnt the government simply announce it plans to leave in 2020, (or 25..or 30, if thats not long enough) and all companies should plan for that. Then not give notice to leave until the proper time? So SO much easier.

Why? because the UK economy will be badly and permanetly affected if we leave the EU. Panelist on question time just said brexit will greatly benefit the Uk if it uses the opportunity to change how it does things. Er, she explained that there are many things wrong with the UK economy harming its competitiveness, which are nothing to do with the EU, but this will be an opportunity for change. Pull the other one! Nothing like that will change. All that will happen if we leave is more bad news for the economy, and all thse fancy ideas disappearing in smoke They are unattainable.

 

[dandelion]

I gather there is now an opinion poll showing a majority in N. ireland for unification with the south within the EU rather than outside the EU as part of the UK. https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/938869636266909698/photo/1

Prediction coming true? brexit will break up the UK?

How on earth should DUP jump on that one? Support hard Brexit and reunification of Ireland, or oppose Brexit?

 

[798686]

No. Some german minority party wants to expand the EU. The EU is a civil service which does as it is told.

You're being disingenuous.

Martin Schulz likely holds the balance of power in Merkels new government, in addition to being a former President of the EU Parliament.

His views should be taken very seriously indeed.

Writing him off as 'some German minority party' is deliberately, and typically, misleading.

 

[798686]

I gather there is now an opinion poll showing a majority in N. ireland for unification with the south within the EU rather than outside the EU as part of the UK. https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/938869636266909698/photo/1

Prediction coming true? brexit will break up the UK?

How on earth should DUP jump on that one? Support hard Brexit and reunification of Ireland, or oppose Brexit?

'If NI left the EU with no border deal or Good Friday Agreement'?!

What a ridiculous question.

And 45% said they'd still stick with the UK.

So, fuck you.

 

[Jason]

I gather there is now an opinion poll showing a majority in N. ireland for unification with the south within the EU rather than outside the EU as part of the UK. https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/938869636266909698/photo/1

Prediction coming true? brexit will break up the UK?

How on earth should DUP jump on that one? Support hard Brexit and reunification of Ireland, or oppose Brexit?

It's a duff poll, like one of those that says 99% of people want whatever.

 

[798686]

It's a duff poll, like one of those that says 99% of people want whatever.

9 out of ten cats say they'll join the Republic of Ireland if their owners leave the EU without feeding them.

 

[Jason]

Suggestion is that May and Juncker will have a meeting about 6am with a joint statement 7.30am. Assume this is UK time, so the statement will be 8.30 in Brussels.

Presumably she has to leave 4am, so assumption is that DUP will have their decision by then.

 

[dandelion]

And 45% said they'd still stick with the UK..

So you reckon that in a referendum , if 45% oppose breaking away, then it shouldnt happen? (remain vote=48% in a recent election?)

getting a bit desperate are we?