Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

Jason

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If trade talks don't start now there really will be too little time. The extended deadline was this eve. In EU fashion that has been further extended to before the working day starts tomorrow. However this really does look like the very last chance.

If DUP mess this up then I think we are looking at hard Brexit. We may well be looking at a government that falls, so if the DUP mess this up then they may be putting the IRA's best friend in Downing Street.
 

dandelion

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If trade talks don't start now there really will be too little time.
Not at all. The obvious thing is to withdraw our notice to leave. far better for the Uk to work from within the EU for the sort of two track EU it wants. I can well see the two track approach growing, with an inner integrated core, but a clearly recognised outer looser aligned group, perhaps incorporating the EEA people, but with more voting rights than now. Its the win-win solution.

We may well be looking at a government that falls, .
That IS the tory plan. they desperately need to not be in power right now. if you dont get the right result in a vote, have another.
 
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eorpach

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Sounds as if the DUP agreement has been given. Guess we won't actually know until tomorrow's Brussels speeches.

Hold your horses, @Jason. You must not be much of a student of Stormont politics to hold onto such exhuberence at this hour.

The DUP speaks for 28% of the electorate of Northern Ireland, in a negotiation that it is having domestically with London.

At the moment this is entirely an internal UK conversation where the leaders of 0.5m people are giving permission to everybody else.

The EU ^is^ Dublin on this issue. It matters not what the ratification process within the DUP is. They (Ireland’s Government) ultimately represent the decision maker in this process as the voice of the other 92% of people on the island of Ireland on this issue. And as a veto holder to agreement (with 27 Member States behind them).

How Dublin responds to this (hopefully magnanimously) is of far more import than how the DUP responds. It’s literally 0.5m people standing up to 449.5m. And Dublin decides who wins.

Based on past experience, the DUP would happily run the UK economy into the ground until next October if it means that they’d get more then than they get tonight.

This will not be signed off before breakfast, unless only the Annex has changed. If it is, then it speaks volumes as to how respectfully Dublin will be of the Unionist vote post Irish unification.
 

dandelion

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Remarkable morning, The Uk government has agreed the UK is to remain.

Theresa Villiers was just on the radio explaining how the agreement announced yesterday does not mean what it says. What it says is that the law in N. Ireland will maintain full 'alignment' with the rules of the single market and customs union. Not that this might be achieved somehow in an agreement, but that the Uk government gives a cast iron guarantee that this will be the case even if there is no agreement between the parties, and in perpetuity. Further, it guarantees there will be no material difference between the rules in Ireland and England.

Theresa Viliers was the one who in the referendum was put up to argue that in the future we would restrict immigration except if the Uk economy needed immigration, in other words that we would not in the future restrict immigration and the situation will remain unchanged. Now she is saying we are definiely leaving the EU, but we will continue to obey all the rules.

So, we will no longer allow people to come here, but we will allow them to come here. We will no longer belong to the CU or Sm, but we will still trade in them according to their rules. No new external trade agreements except in lockstep with those of the EU. I havnt seen th text, but the radio reported that ECJ judgements will continue to be binding on the UK (which of course they must be if the rules are to remain in alignment). The UK will conform to any future changes of the EU rules.

Oh, and I presume in return for this the UK will pay 50bn and lose its ability to set or veto any rules the EU makes. I presume we will continue the annual fees too, since this will probably be a necessary condition for an agreement, and we just made an absolute guarantee to accept an agreement with the EU on their terms.

How remarkable. Yet more remarkable is that the government is trying to spin this as the reverse.
 
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So you reckon that in a referendum , if 45% oppose breaking away, then it shouldnt happen? (remain vote=48% in a recent election?)

getting a bit desperate are we?
You miss the point.

The poll asked what would happen if the UK left with no deal, no Good Friday Agreement and no citizens rights.

This is utter bollocks - the latter two are not under threat.
 
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dandelion

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You miss the point. The poll asked what would happen if the UK left with no deal, no Good Friday Agreement and no citizens rights. This is utter bollocks - the latter two are not under threat.
Of course they are. Brexit breaks the spirit if not the letter of the GFA unless the Irish agree to it. Irish citizens lose their current rights as EU citizens (but these are now guaranteed to continue. How can the Uk guarantee N. Irish continue to keep their rights of travel inside the EU, unless it accepts whatever terms the EU asks to allow this?)

My point was that you said 45% opposing such a fundamental change ought to have a veto. Therefore your position is that the result of the Eu referendum was 'remain'.

Blimey, the news seems to be utterly missing the central point of the agreement, The Uk agrees to remain in the common marker and customs union. It agrees to continue free movement of people. it agrees to pay what the EU demands. It agrees the ECJ will have binding authority. The Uk agrees to give up its veto on changes to EU rules which might disadvantage the Uk. Brexit is a european unionist's wet dream. As juncker showed when he was so pleased in the parliament at what Farage had done.
 

Jason

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We have agreement this morning, and it is one that pleases just about everyone. I see even poor, deluded Dandy can kid himself it means the opposite of what it means. If it gives him comfort, let him believe what he likes!

The agreement sets up a different sort of balance of power for the next phase of talks. In effect the EU won't get the divorce bill payments if a trade deal isn't agreed. Whatever UK politicians might say, I think everyone knows that it just wouldn't be possible to get the UK parliament to release the divorce bill without a trade deal. We now have phase two with the EU actually motivated to negotiate.

I think this deal has strengthened May's government. So far everything has gone through parliament. I know some controversial stuff has been dropped, but so far everything has worked. I think DUP will renew their pact in 2019, perhaps a coalition. We're looking at next election 2022.

This deal makes Scottish independence far less likely. It will tend to reduce tensions in NI. It helps Gibraltar.
 
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eorpach

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This deal makes Scottish independence far less likely. It will tend to reduce tensions in NI. It helps Gibraltar.

Agreed. And it achieves this by pivoting towards the Customs Union / Single Market after Brexit. Not away from it.

The writing is on the wall for the Brextremists:

They will get a free hand on 3rd Party trade deals, or they can secure the United Kingdom’s constitutional integrity.

But thanks to the DUP, they cannot have both. May’s signature today pivots the UK toward the latter.

If any party has secured a key national interest Today, it is Ireland - we have just saved the UK from going off the cliff in March 2019.

And here’s why:

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/...e-madness-of-a-hard-brexit-1.3320096?mode=amp
 
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Jason

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Agreed. And it achieves this by pivoting towards the Customs Union / Single Market after Brexit. Not away from it.

The writing is on the wall for the Brextremists:

They will get a free hand on 3rd Party trade deals, or they can secure the United Kingdom’s constitutional integrity.

But thanks to the DUP, they cannot have both. May’s signature today pivots the UK toward the latter.

If any party has secured a key national interest Today, it is Ireland - we have just saved the UK from going off the cliff in March 2019.

And here’s why:

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/...e-madness-of-a-hard-brexit-1.3320096?mode=amp

This is a good agreement. Following the Brexit referendum there was an attempt in the UK to create a spirit of "Brexit together", ie we all move forward to an agreed end. It didn't really work. However this agreement is one very many in the UK can get behind. There are all sorts of problems with the terms hard and soft Brexit, but this is looking more like what many have termed a soft Brexit. Very many can support it. The extreme of the Brexiteer wind is calling it a betrayal, but I think they've lost the plot.

Many politicians seem to feel that some things are better left unsaid. However the chatter is that this week has been a DUP stunt provoked by Varadkar's megaphone diplomacy. Varadkar's language before Monday caused a lot of DUP upset and was seen as trampling over the balance of the Good Friday Agreement. The DUP believe they have argued the case for their constituency, and that the tiny changes they have gained really do matter. Maybe they are even right. I think Varadkar has been exceptionally unhelpful in this process, and even came close to causing a hard Brexit. He's certainly not given the UK a reason to be a friend of Ireland.

There will be a lot of very happy Conservative MPs this weekend. There isn't going to be either a DUP or a Conservative rebellion. The government will get its business through the Commons. Just about everything is going through by about 20 votes. (Without the 10 DUP MPs just about everything would be a knife-edge.) Business is going to continue to go through. By-elections are only going to be a problem in Conservative-held super-marginals (assuming Labour are a point or two ahead) and there's not many of those, and with a bit of luck they will not have to be fought. We have a stable government to take us to 2022. The term being used is "weak and stable".

Right now no-one is going to want to boot May out. She's doing the job. In terms of fighting the next election the party will decide whether it wants May or a new face. Right now May is looking possible, perhaps for the first time since the election night exit poll. However a change of leader in 2021 could be to someone who has a low profile right now. Rees-Mogg???
 
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dandelion

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We have agreement this morning, and it is one that pleases just about everyone. I see even poor, deluded Dandy can kid himself it means the opposite of what it means. If it gives him comfort, let him believe what he likes!
And there is the problem. The wording is pretty clear to me, it says the Uk will remain part of most EU arrangements and follow the same rules. This implies we will continue to respect ECJ rulings, forever. This is the fallback position, so logically the negotiations will be about even greater involvement (membership, perhaps?)

Now it might be that you Jason interpret the wording utterly differently, but I suspect the EU will see it my way, not least because they are not interested in fudge. They want an agreement, whatever that is. Barnier was going on today about his confidence that May would stand by what she has agreed to, which I am sure he understands as what I said. I think anyone reading it would understand it as I said, and journalists this morning were doing so. And tory politicians were spinning their understanding that it means something other than the normal meaning of the english words being used.

So, if all May has done is lied so as buy time, then we have got absolutely nowhere. Leavers would see it as a benefit, because more time has been wasted with no result, and they are hoping we shall run out of time to change our minds before the government has to give an honest statement of what it intends from Brexit. But I stand by what I have siad before, the torys want to remain in the EU, and the plan at the moment seems to be to invent a brand new form of membership for the Uk, which involves us paying our money, following the rules but not making them. The Norway option. Not so bad, arguably the EU will get on better without being endlessly sidetracked by the UK. But what this means is the UK dropping yet another notch in world power.

In effect the EU won't get the divorce bill payments if a trade deal isn't agreed.p/quote]As I read it, we have promised to pay up and to belong to a virtual CM/ CU which is identical in all important respects to the EU one. Whatever the results of other negotiations.

I think everyone knows that it just wouldn't be possible to get the UK parliament to release the divorce bill without a trade deal.
I'd suggest that would be the opening move in the bankruptcy of the UK, with its credit rating turning to dust.

We now have phase two with the EU actually motivated to negotiate.
I am sre the EU believes it has already negotiates, and we now have an outline of the final deal. I dont see them conceding anything. If you are claiming they will, then you are still trying to trick voters.

This deal makes Scottish independence far less likely.
In as much as it basically guarantees we remain in the EU (except for the bit about making its rules), then it is the result they asked for.

It will tend to reduce tensions in NI. It helps Gibraltar.
 

dandelion

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This is a good agreement.
It basically says we remain. Thats good.


However this agreement is one very many in the UK can get behind.
Ah that depends. If the UK government follows what it signed, then yes. If it follows what it claims it means, then no.

The extreme of the Brexiteer wind is calling it a betrayal, but I think they've lost the plot.
Did someone pour a pint of Irish whiskey down you, because you seem to have totally reversed yourself without noticing.

Many politicians seem to feel that some things are better left unsaid. However the chatter is that this week has been a DUP stunt provoked by Varadkar's megaphone diplomacy.
O am veering to it being a DUP stunt asked for by May. The DUP action has enabled her to sign up to remaining not just for Ireland but for England too.

There will be a lot of very happy Conservative MPs this weekend.
well they are remainers. But perhaps more importantly, they know if we leave the EU trade arrangements they will cease to be MPs because of the backlash form voters when it all goes pearshaped. They can probably survive putting the country through all this disruption only to arrive at the same place we started. Politicians do rubbish like that all the time.

There isn't going to be either a DUP or a Conservative rebellion.
Well if the government is basically sgned up to remain, then who is going to rebel?

Right now May is looking possible,
If the tory party looks even like it might get 2nd place in ten years time, May will be an acknowledged hero.
 

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was the thread startted with this in mind??
glad you all helped work thru it
well GREECE intervened, in between
how HAPPY and successful the Eu has been
yahooooooooooo

menawhile BREXITS appeared and ... maybe on its way to being ... whatever?

XMAS is comming as well?will be and gone before we know it, huh duh


Greece Emerges from Economic Crisis with Increased Inequality

Greece is "coming out of the crisis with a more polarized society, with an opened gap between the rich and the poor," says economic scholar John Milios

http://therealnews.com/t2/story:20638:Greece-Emerges-from-Economic-Crisis-with-Increased-Inequality

 
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dandelion

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Thats about the size of it drifter. But it is in reality a government recognition remain are right, that leaving equates with financial armageddon. Of course we can leave our most important trading agreement and stop that trade, but that means we have to take the financial hit. While the tories are virtually addicted to keeping leave support, they know that the moment those people start to lose money from brexit, their philosophical aspirations will disappear like smoke. The split on how people voted was always the same as what they thought the financial outcome would be. Those who thought it bad voted remain. Those who though it good, voted leave. There are a minority like Jason who dont care about money and wanted to leave despite believing it would cost them, but thats not enough to even keep UKIP afloat.

The agreement presumably comes under the heading of EU negotiations, even if its about leaving the EU, so the final arbitration court is the ECJ. If the Uk tries to back down it will be subject to sanctions from the ECJ. We might even be obliged to pay up reparations! But we have very likely essentially made a binding commitment to remain in the EU, whilst leaving the council of ministers and parliament.
 
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eorpach

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But we have very likely essentially made a binding commitment to remain in the EU, whilst leaving the council of ministers and parliament.

You have. Because of the Good Friday Agreement.

Had London in 1921 never created a border in Ireland, then Brexit in 2017 could have been more than an economically-right wing fantasy of the Tory party. That we got to this point is an endictment of the British education system and it’s deficienceis in educating British People as to why it’s second city left the UK 97 years ago. (That second city was Dublin).

(Sadly for Brexiters), the seeds of the failure of the European project were sown in the Anglo-Irish Treaty of 1920 (why is that not on the GCSE Syllabus?)

Brexit is entirely realisti. It’s just ahead of its time. The DUP needs to die off first. Who knows how long that would take? In the meantime. Brexiters should arm themselves with a copy of the Anglo-Irish Treaty and the Good Friday and St Andrews Agreements. Also with Arlene Foster’s local newspaper.

All of these make for essential reading for a Brexiter that hopes for a hard Brexit some day.
 

dandelion

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You have. Because of the Good Friday Agreement.

Had London in 1921 never created a border in Ireland, then Brexit in 2017 could have been more than an economically-right wing fantasy of the Tory party.
Now your own history is affecting your view, just as the brexiteers pining for the empire is affecting theirs.

Brexit cannot work because basically it amounts to leaving one huge economic trading deal and seeking another, which can only be inferior. All trade deals ever created involve trading off one gain for a disadvantage, but the aim is that everyone will be better off. There is no evidence I have seen that this does not apply to our EU membership, and almost all the economists seem to agree. Those that disagree seem to put a lot of emphasis on other, more important, things wrong with the UK economy. It is arguable that the EU has in effect been a life support machine for the Uk, keeping the economy going despite its other failings. But the synergy of membership means the Uk economy has also adapted to having this trade deal, and to take advantage of it. So the pain will be much worse than had we never joined. Leaving means starting again from scratch, and our most important trading partner is and will remain the EU.

Voters did not vote for any deal which will cost them money. Thats the truth. The government cannot deliver any form of Brexit which will not cost them money, and it already has.

So I disagree, Brexit could never be more than a fantasy under any circumstances. It isnt really fair to say this is a conservative fantasy, because the majority do not believe in it and dont think it can work. But they have a voter base which has been persuaded to want it. They allowed this to happen because they do have a faction which firmly believes in leaving the EU, and in order to prevent party splits they adopted a neutral position. When UKIP came along, they declined to oppose leaving the EU directly. It was a big mistake, because UKIP won by default. Tories refused to admit that the UK needs the EU, and all this talk of return to empire is utter fantasy. But its the sort of fantasy which appeals to tory voters. Labour has pretty much stayed out of it and left the tories to stew in their own disaster.

Right now the government has adopted a head in sand approach, seeking to delay. The action of the EU and Irish government has forced them to address the realities of Brexit. Not because the westminster government cares one bit about Ireland, but simply because unless they made a meaningfull statement right now, negotiations would cease right now. And that would have been disastrous for both the leave and remain faction of the conservatives. Both still see a way to win in the future, remain by following the script of the deal, leave by stalling for time until we have formally left and then repudiating the deal.

The effect of the DUP has been to impose a requirement for whatever deal to apply to all the Uk, so the government could not get away with making a deal just for ireland as an exception to the whole. I imagine the south would have been perfectly happy with a new sea border between England and N. Ireland, and this was the top priority to avoid for the DUP. But i think they will end up like the liberals after their coalition with the conservatives, if they are not very careful. They are a leave supporting party which has just pushed through a remain policy. All smacks of the libs opposing university tuition fees, and then helping the tories deliver them.

That we got to this point is an endictment of the British education system and it’s deficienceis in educating British People as to why it’s second city left the UK 97 years ago. (That second city was Dublin).
Not sure how you mean this. if you mean the Uk still dreams of being an empire and bossing the world about, then yes, it has not learnt the lesson it cannot do this. The politicians who joined the EU understood that the Uk could not longer hold an empire by force of arms, and needed to gain advantage by other means. Thats why they worked for and obtained a veto over developments of the UK's major trading partner, the EU. Fools now have started the process of simply giving this away.

Brexit is entirely realisti. It’s just ahead of its time. The DUP needs to die off first. Who knows how long that would take? In the meantime. Brexiters should arm themselves with a copy of the Anglo-Irish Treaty and the Good Friday and St Andrews Agreements. Also with Arlene Foster’s local newspaper.
I'm not really understanding your point, which is a shame because its good to hear a bit about what the irish really think.

What the EU wants out of all this is to end the Uk veto on its future development. Most likely it will change in ways against the interests of the UK (certainly those of Brexit supporters), and we will comply with whatever it wants, whether members or not, because it is our most important trading partner. This is INEVITABLE. The agreement says the government believes this to be the case. Already they have no choice but to accept EU terms. But still they push ahead with Brexit against what they know to be the national interest.
 
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I have great news! Trump's candidate for the Senate from Alabama has been defeated. The last time a Democrat won a Senate seat from Alabama was in 1992, the year Clinton was elected president.

The new Senator is Doug Jones. He won by getting a coalition of racial and ethnic minorities, Democrats and moderate Republicans. The moderate Republicans have been booted out of their party. Jones may have shown the way to victory for Democrats.

Alabama is the fifth conservative state in the US according to CNN. Trump had a 28 point lead over Hillary in the election.

The candidate that Trump endorsed, Moore, has been accused of an assault by a woman who was then 14. There are several others that have come forward who were also molested as teens. Moore at the time was in his early 30s. Moore is for doing away with all amendments to the US Constitution after the tenth one. That means that he is for legal slavery, no women allowed to vote and the equal clause in the 14th amendment that has been used by US courts to rule in favor of those whose rights have been violated.

Meanwhile, the Pew poll that is one of the most respected non partisan polls in the US has released its latest poll. Trump is at a new low. Only 32 % of Americans approve of his presidency. More importantly, 61 % of Americans disapprove of Trump's presidency.

Consider that a large portion of that 32 % are people who live in the 16 state South which are the states who had legalized slavery during the Civil War. Trump's support outside the South is definitely less than 32 %.

So it is Celebration Time in the USA!!! Trump has been beaten. This is the third high profile special election this year that Trump has lost.

Now the Democrats have 49 senators while the Republicans have 51. There are 50 states with two senators for each state.

The marathon election cycle starts again after New Years. Trump may very well lose his majority in the Senate sooner than that.

Let's hope so!
 
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Freddie53

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The obvious thing is to withdraw our notice to leave. far better for the Uk to work from within the EU for the sort of two track EU it wants.
What? I had not read or heard that the UK could undo its notice of intent to leave within two years. This is good news for the UK.

The best deal for the UK is to try to get some of what the Leave group wants and yet also give the Remain group some of what they want by staying in the EU.

I erased the rest of your post as I wanted clarification on this as I thought that the UK could not rescind their decision to leave. However, you make some valid points. There needs to be a way for those who want closer communion to get that even if it is a new nation state while keeping the free trade agreement with the rest of the EU and others wanting to join that want as much sovereignty as is reasonable in the 21st century, want to keep their own currency etc.

It looks to me that the EU will be hurt by the loss of the UK's trade if the UK could somehow divert its trade from the EU to the US, and Canada and to some degree others.

It is to the benefit of the EU if the UK stays. So May needs to be working for more than one possible outcome and see which outcome comes out the best in the end.

One outcome: The UK leaves the EU.
Another outcome: The UK and the EU work out what each can accept successfully and the UK remains in the EU.

Negotiate from both possibilities and then make a determination after viewing the results.
 

dandelion

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What? I had not read or heard that the UK could undo its notice of intent to leave within two years. This is good news for the UK.
Brexiteers seldom mention this. Its not a guaranteed right, legal opinion differs on whether notice to leave can or cannot be withdrawn. But if it is, that clearly offers the best outcome for the UK.

The best deal for the UK is to try to get some of what the Leave group wants and yet also give the Remain group some of what they want by staying in the EU.
That would appear to be what the recent agreement in principle with the EU says. It says we stay in everything except the parliament, the council of minister, the commission and appointing judges to the court. In other words we stay in following the rules, but no longer take part in managing the EU. It is the craziest possible outcome...except leaving the EU.

But even if it was eventually decided the Uk cannot simply withdraw its notice to quit, the negotiations should be aimed at remaining or rejoining. If that costs us more than it did before, so be it. Blame Farage, Davis and Gove. May's agreement in principle seems to have upset some of her ministers, but it is an acceptance than practically speaking we cannot leave the EU without a cost which would be unacceptable to UK voters (who incidentally now want to remain)

It looks to me that the EU will be hurt by the loss of the UK's trade if the UK could somehow divert its trade from the EU to the US, and Canada and to some degree others.
It wont divert trade, it will simply lose trade.

It is to the benefit of the EU if the UK stays.
Yes and no. They are happy wih May's proposed deal where we just obey their the rules and stop arguing for our own interests. The crazy thing is that Brexit has devolved into giving away stratgic Uk interests and sovereignty when it claimed to be to increase these.