Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

[dandelion]

* In by-elections LibDems are doing well, mainly at the expense of Labour.

Of course they are, but not only at the exense of labour. Because they are the most remain party. Unfortunately if you are remain inclined, a national vote for them is a wasted vote, because they will not win.

* The UKIP collapse seems to be helping Con more than Lab.

Now that is interesting, because the total number of people declaring for the tories has not increased. I put this down to remainers or even soft brexiteers defecting to labour a fast as UKIP are moving to tories. And as you note, I think the staunchest remainers might be getting disenchanted with labour. Labour need to declare for remain.

 

[southeastone]

. Labour need to declare for remain.

How exactly will that fit with the nationalisation plans?

 

[southeastone]

As there are apparently no racists in the UK Labour party we await the news that Tom Watson the labour deputy leader will be returning the £540k received from his friend Max Mosley as the racist leaflet Mosley produced (and lied about in court?) has now come to light? Hope Tom has got an overdraft facility.

 

[dandelion]

How exactly will that fit with the nationalisation plans?

If we are richer -because we remain in the EU - then government can afford more. I have no idea how the tories will cope with implementing austerity+++ post brexit, and persuading voters that it was always obvious that if we went for brexit we would then have to pay the price.

In fact, I dont think this message would be sellable by the tories at all. And that is why they will not carry out a hard brexit, because the consequences would destroy the tory party.

Everything we see now, all the unnecessary delays, all the staged infighting by tories, is all about them trying to do a U turn without leave voters realising that is what they are doing.

 

[southeastone]

And that answers the question how?

 

[798686]

Record year for Aston.

#despite/becauseofBrexit

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/...rd-profits-show-financial-turnaround-complete

 

[798686]

Hmm, seems totally regular... for Juncker at least. Accountability was never his strong point.

https://euobserver.com/institutional/141118

 

[Jason]

As there are apparently no racists in the UK Labour party we await the news that Tom Watson the labour deputy leader will be returning the £540k received from his friend Max Mosley as the racist leaflet Mosley produced (and lied about in court?) has now come to light? Hope Tom has got an overdraft facility.

If it is proved that Tom Watson wrote the text of the leaflet, encouraged Mosley to lie in court, and that the £540k is stolen from an orphanage THEN Labour's support in the polls will go even higher.

The worse Labour seem and are the more people want to vote for them.

We've had Labour supporting terrorism, anti-Semitism, Venezuela, Iran, Cuba, Marxism, spying for the UK's enemies - so why does anyone think racism with Mosley will make any difference?

 

[dandelion]

The worse Labour seem and are the more people want to vote for them.

This is one of the interesting aspects of a lot of campaigning. The US identified that Russia's aim is not necessarily to elect one candidate or another, but to create dissention amongst voters. To change a consensual process of two pretty similar teams deciding who will be in goverrnment next, into a civil war.

So what you do is keep pushing issues which really divide the nation and will tear it apart. Like brexit, for example. Set people against their neighbours on an issue which ten years ago they never thought about and never mattered to them. Start attacking the reputation of one or other leader, preferably both. If one side thinks youra ttacks are total rubbish while the other believes every word, all the better. The ideas isnt to convert anyone. It is to try to turn an election into a zenophobic punchup. To get them openly fighting. To destroy the process and thereby destroy the state.

Brexit will shrink the Uk economy. Not temporarily, permanetly. It will undermine the ability of the Uk to do anything in foreign affairs. We already see the armed forces shrinking yet further, the Uk will have no influence to persuade the other european powers to act on anything. Who are britains traditional enemies? At the moment the most obvious is Russia. We pushed expansion of the EU to steal away the nations they had controlled. We imposed sanctions when they tried to get some back by force. We are encouraging thir former possessions to join a military alliance against them. No doubt they want to reverse this, and have decided they need to use more subtle means than tanks. It seems to be working. Brexit means...joining the Russian Union.

 

[eurotop40]

Hmm, seems totally regular... for Juncker at least. Accountability was never his strong point.
https://euobserver.com/institutional/141118

HoL anyone?

 

[southeastone]

Hmm, seems totally regular... for Juncker at least. Accountability was never his strong point.

https://euobserver.com/institutional/141118

The Barroso business doesn't smell right either

 

[southeastone]

So what you do is keep pushing issues which really divide the nation and will tear it apart. .

Like remainers failing to accept the democratic result of an open vote?

 

[852147]

When your talking to yourself in a thread with no response but you keep going rambling on to yourself with little response from anyone and you end up looking a little derange. Best to get a diary or stick to twitter as not woriking on here. We all know who I mean lol!

 

[852147]

Like remainers failing to accept the democratic result of an open vote?

If we ignore Brexit makes us look so bad ignoring democracy and will cause chaos. Does it mean we can ignore the next general Election Say Corbyn wins but the seats he did not win declare independence and don’t regonise his government causing chaos. Ignoring democracy leads us down so many dangerous paths.

 

[dandelion]

If we ignore Brexit makes us look so bad ignoring democracy

Polling says there is now a steady lead for remain. if we leave the EU, that will be ignoring democracy.

What do you imagine will happen to the tory party if they lead the nation into a disastrous Brexit when most people do not want this to happen? The conservatives know it will be disastrous, no one has been able to explain how this can be avoided. They have been stalling implementing the decision and are now fced with a choice of doing something which will make the tories unelectable for a generation, or making a U turn and cancelling Brexit. (which will also lose them massive support)

The real twist is that if they do the right thing and cancel brexit, their voters will never believe the size of the disaster which was averted. Probably they would settle on a soft brexit compromise, as the Norwegian governmen did in the same situation. But soft brexit and hard brexit are both rather unpopular and less popular than remain.

The only alternative with national support right now is to remain in the EU.

 

[chrisrobin]

Polling says there is now a steady lead for remain. if we leave the EU, that will be ignoring democracy.

What do you imagine will happen to the tory party if they lead the nation into a disastrous Brexit when most people do not want this to happen? The conservatives know it will be disastrous, no one has been able to explain how this can be avoided. They have been stalling implementing the decision and are now fced with a choice of doing something which will make the tories unelectable for a generation, or making a U turn and cancelling Brexit. (which will also lose them massive support)

The real twist is that if they do the right thing and cancel brexit, their voters will never believe the size of the disaster which was averted. Probably they would settle on a soft brexit compromise, as the Norwegian governmen did in the same situation. But soft brexit and hard brexit are both rather unpopular and less popular than remain.

The only alternative with national support right now is to remain in the EU.

Pollsters always say what the think the questioner wants to hear, so, that's rubbish and if you talk about democratic what about the result of the referendum?
The only persons who think it will be disastrous are those who don't want to leave the womb of Angela Merkel and friends.
There is not such thing as a soft brexit that would have financial and legal ramifications attached.

 

[dandelion]

Pollsters always say what the think the questioner wants to hear, so, that's rubbish and if you talk about democratic what about the result of the referendum?

Indeed, what about it? a very narrow result which might have been different had it been re-run the following day. Only 1/3 of the voters actually voted to leave. That shows an enormous lack of commitment to Brexit.

But Nazi Germany and modern Russia have the same view of public votes as you do: that once having got a result they like, then never more shall there be a free vote. That isnt democracy. Democracy is the right to change your mind and change national policy. Every day if necessary.

And then, there is the question of what exactly people voted for. There is the soft brexit, the hard brexit, and all the shades in between. They voted for things which are contradictory and cannot be achieved. The result of any vote where the people voting were misled cannot stand. No one knows what people voted for. Certainly not this government.

 

[chrisrobin]

Indeed, what about it? a very narrow result which might have been different had it been re-run the following day. Only 1/3 of the voters actually voted to leave. That shows an enormous lack of commitment to Brexit.

But Nazi Germany and modern Russia have the same view of public votes as you do: that once having got a result they like, then never more shall there be a free vote. That isnt democracy. Democracy is the right to change your mind and change national policy. Every day if necessary.

And then, there is the question of what exactly people voted for. There is the soft brexit, the hard brexit, and all the shades in between. They voted for things which are contradictory and cannot be achieved. The result of any vote where the people voting were misled cannot stand. No one knows what people voted for. Certainly not this government.

You do seem to forget that the EU has had more than one re-run till they got the right result - and wow - didn't the pollsters get it wrong on the last load of elections!
Boris was right in saying that Brussels is only out to cause trouble, otherwise why would Brussels have gone as far as to deny that was their intention. Like Trump as long as they get their message out first that's the one that sticks. The new brooms in Brussels are starting to sweep and Junckers little friend is not going to be a friend of the UK
The only misleading was done by those who presumed the nation could be lead by the nose and do what it was told, alas that turned itself over as the people began to think for themselves, that my friend is what a democracy is, remember that while we still have one!

 

[Jason]

Pollsters always say what the think the questioner wants to hear, so, that's rubbish and if you talk about democratic what about the result of the referendum?
The only persons who think it will be disastrous are those who don't want to leave the womb of Angela Merkel and friends.
There is not such thing as a soft brexit that would have financial and legal ramifications attached.

I've yet to hear a convincing reason why UK gets polls wrong when just about every other country gets them right.

At the French presidential election the polls closed and there was an exit poll out seconds later. Everyone treated this as the result. I assume there will be an exit poll on Sunday's election in Italy, and I assume it will be within 3%, even spot on.

In the UK in the hours after the poll closes we discuss whether the exit poll was correct, and we would consider it an achievement if the poll was within 3%. There wasn't an official Brexit referendum exit poll, but the finance industry did its own unofficial one and was out by 4%. Our 2015 election had a wrong exit poll. The 2017 election had a right exit poll, but after weeks of polls that were not consistent one with another, and not ultimately reflected in the vote. Right now polls are not being replicated in local government by-elections.

I don't know what value can be placed in Brexit polls. The results are not all that clear - if anything they seem to be saying not much change. I guess the point is that only a referendum can establish a view at a date. And there is a fundamental democratic breach if a nation keeps having a poll until it gets the answer its political class want.

 

[chrisrobin]

I've yet to hear a convincing reason why UK gets polls wrong when just about every other country gets them right.

At the French presidential election the polls closed and there was an exit poll out seconds later. Everyone treated this as the result. I assume there will be an exit poll on Sunday's election in Italy, and I assume it will be within 3%, even spot on.

In the UK in the hours after the poll closes we discuss whether the exit poll was correct, and we would consider it an achievement if the poll was within 3%. There wasn't an official Brexit referendum exit poll, but the finance industry did its own unofficial one and was out by 4%. Our 2015 election had a wrong exit poll. The 2017 election had a right exit poll, but after weeks of polls that were not consistent one with another, and not ultimately reflected in the vote. Right now polls are not being replicated in local government by-elections.

I don't know what value can be placed in Brexit polls. The results are not all that clear - if anything they seem to be saying not much change. I guess the point is that only a referendum can establish a view at a date. And there is a fundamental democratic breach if a nation keeps having a poll until it gets the answer its political class want.

Italy will be interesting and don't forget that Hungary has one at the end of the month... its all change hopefully among the ruling elite..