For the sake of argument, let's assume they are correct.
The nerve gas attack on the Russian spy was clearly aimed at helping May. The same idea as galtieri invading the falklands, that an opportunity for sabre rattling always rallies voters.
I am quite sure the Russians delight in discrediting all foreign politicians by any means, but at the moment their national interest is served by trying to make sure Brexit happens. My guess is that whatever influence Russia had on the 2017 election, their interest now lies in exaggerating it. A bit like their choice of nerve gas for an assassination. It wasnt about a death, but about the publicity. Now they want to maximise confusion, and of course still help Brexit, because it will be another step down in British world influence.
the government is in power, but very little new legislation is getting through parliament because it is so weak.
It is interesting to speculate what might have happened with a different result. if May had been returned with an effective but minimal commons majority as she had before, then she would have still been in the position of trying to stop Brexit, but it would have been harder for her. She could not have relied upon the DUP to cover her acceptance of staying in the customs union. Or maybe she could, maybe the government had already identified the good friday agreement as a way to stop brexit. Probably the hope was that the lords would defy the commons. But failing all that, the tories would have had to organise a bigger split than they now need, and thus defeat themselves. That is still basically the situation, but now they dont need to appoint so many of their own side to vote against them.
5) the government is hamstrung in the Brexit negotiations, and this is damaging the UK.
The Uk is hamstrung only because the UK gave notice to leave at a specific date and the clock is ticking down. the Uk has to have an agreement to continue relations with the EU as now, before the time expires. Its a deadline imposed by the Uk upon itself by the way this has been handled. But presumably the government always intended to use this to explain why it went soft on brexit. it deliberately hamstrung itelf.
The EU was never going to give the UK the kind of deal May suggested was possible. Because it just is not possible. The EU is a highly complex protectionist wall around its members. No deal can be made which breeches that wall. A state has to place itself inside or outside. Even if the EU desperately wanted a deal with the UK, it simply could not make one. But as things stand, the effect of the Uk leaving is likely to be neutral for the rest of the EU. Not so for Britain, of course.
7) polls were spectacularly wrong for the 2017 election. One view is that the UK just can't do polls, but every other nation can. Another view is that we've actually found why they were wrong - none of the pollsters were weighting to take account of interference by a hostile foreign nation.
They werent wrong Jason, where do you get these crazy ideas? Russia?
When May declared an election there was a big lead for tories. No reason to think this wrong, but the method of calculation ignored big totals for UKIP, libs and most particularly 'Dont Know'.
During the campaign UKIP vote collapsed and moved maybe 2/3 for tory and 1/3 for labour. Lib vote collapsed and went very largely to labour. Dont knows shrank and made their minds up. They voted mostly labour, which isnt very surprising because most of them were anyway former labour voters.
In fact, it went pretty much as might have been expected. Both labour and tory greatly increased their share, and the final result was something of dead heat, reflecting the nations similar division on Brexit.
I would assume that astute tory advisors told May this is what she might expect to happen, and she went for it.
Quite what the UK now does I don't know.
Cancel brexit immediately would probably be best. The tories know Brexit cannot be achieved without slashing the UK's income. They have always known this, they have just lied to the public about it.
They know the public has a big majority against any form of Brexit which harms the Uk economy, and that means all of them. Even leavers have a majority against all known versions of Brexit.
People have not really changed their views. They like the concept of British independence, but not if there is a price tag attached. This was true of leavers at the referendum and is still true now. Even if the propaganda campaign continue to persuade enough people armageddon isnt going to happen after brexit so that they can keep the show on the road, it will not help whichever party pushes it through. Because they will in the future be slaughtered for the harm done to the Uk economy as it becomes apparent.
There is a way for the government to get the kind of deal it said it wants, which is to remain a member and then make these terms part of agreeing to changes the other members want, when next the treaties are renegotiated. But in reality the govrnment does not want to change anything. It wants to be wholly defeated and maintain the status quo.
Oh, and brexit supporters are dying even as we speak. the demographic is changing so that invitably the Uk will rejoin even if it leaves now. This whole thing has simply been one huge exercise in discrediting the UK both as an ally and as a reliable trading partner. It was intended to harm the Uk, it has harmed the Uk, and will continue to do so the longer brexit continues.
