Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

[dandelion]

Oh, looks like the legal profession is going to be stuffed by brexit now. Companies are moving their contracts out of Uk jurisdiction so as to avoid Brexit problems. A third of companies have shifted contracts out of English courts' jurisdiction since referendum

Cant say I had realised the lawyers will be redundant. Have to add them to the list.

 

[dandelion]

Yougov have changed their polling question about Brexit. They used to ask , 'in hindisght, do you think britain was right or wrong to vote to leave'. As the idea of another referendum has become steadily more poplar, they have now asked people how they would vote in such a referendum.

For a straight rerun, they got 53% remain and 47% leave.

For a more complex question where people were given three choices, take the deal, leave with no deal or remain, and then asked their second preference so votes could transfer after eliminating the least popular, the final result came out much the same, 54% remain 46% leave.

Roughly twice the margin to remain that leave got in the earlier referendum. The nation wants to remain even more decisively than previously it wanted to leave. http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...dyeogty/SundayTimesResults_180720_for_web.pdf

How big does the remain lead have to be before the tories formally call it a day and switch to remain, seeking to win back remain voters?

Hard leave voters are already seeing the writing on the wall that the tories have well and truly abandoned them already, and are seeking a new home. The conservative party has not changed its view we should be inside the EU just because of the referendum result.

 

[southeastone]

Soros backed Best for Britain fined by the electoral commission for irregularities on donation and spending returns......

 

[dandelion]

Britain is doing so well under the conservative government that the MOD is selling off two airbases, and while we have decided in principle we need to buy some new ships, no one is willing to build them for the price we can afford. The militry budget is still crippled by the two new aircraft carriers, for which we have no aeroplanes.

The aircraft carriers were ordered by labour when the economy and governmnt accounts were doing very much better under their management. They only make sense if we wish to use military power overseas, the UK being its own aircraft carrier. Yet the tories decided to carry on with the project rather than abandon it, when far less had been spent than now. The UK cannot afford them as government finances stand now.

 

[dandelion]

Government planning to stockpile drugs in case of a no deal Brexit. NHS to stockpile drugs for no deal Brexit

Also planning for having to fly in drugs in case ports are jammed. Though how that works if we are locked out of flying in the EU (or indeed rest of the world) I don know.

 

[Drifterwood]

Channel 4 News on Twitter

CH4 interviewer asked him if he would resign if he is wrong about Brexit. He said no. He further said we wouldnt know the answer for a long time, 50 years.

Once upon a time Leave promised we sould see immediate benefits from Brexit. Money for the NHS. Money for everyone. Now they are saying we wont see benefits for 50 years. If 40 years of loss and shrinkage of the economy take place, I expect they will say we need to stick at it and wait 500 years to see the real benefits.

JRM:" We wont know the full economic consequences for a very long time" . He does not believe there will be any gain from brexit in his lifetime!!!! Jacob Rees-Mogg Says It Could Take 50 Years To Reap The Benefits Of Brexit

Rees Mogg is a liar. Don't be fooled by the ultra posh accent.

 

[dandelion]

Irish deputy PM says britain cannot afford a no deal outcome. No doubt some on here would claim that the Uk could survive no deal, but it is obvious from what he has said that the EU does not believe that.

He also said ireland would suport an extension of the article 50 deadline, if Britain was showing commitment to the process. however at the moment the UK government is still just arguing with itself.

'UK can't afford no-deal Brexit'

 

[dandelion]

Jeremy Corbyn made a speech which people seem to be trying to spin lots of ways. Amongst other things, he observed that the current government fails to use EU rules which allow us to make government procurement preferentially from UK companies in certain circumstances. It seems the Uk government does not believe in doing this. Indeed, it is a fundamental conservative policy not to give UK preference but simply go for the chapest bid.

It sounds as though he will also insist anyone bidding for government contracts has to comply with fair dealing rules, such as fairly paying taxes, respecting the environment, workers rights, and so on.

It seems there are lots of creative ways of bisaing UK procuremen to Uk companies, which the government does not do.

 

[185248]

Are you offering the throw a few quid in?

We threw the Quid away on the 14th of February 1966....

A shame we still hang on to the dregs ....wait for the jingle....

 

[185248]

A figure so huge it is almost meaningless.

Trading Economics suggests 9,685,501,000,000 euros as the total of the sovereign debt of the eurozone nations. In round figures that is ten thousand trillion. It's something like E25,000 for every person in the eurozone.

Sovereign debts are high as a proportion of GDP in the eurozone and of course in many other nations. All the time nations can service the debts, it is not too terrible.

The problems come if the markets in effect call time on the debts. There are concerns about the legal basis of part of the sovereign debt of eurozone nations (the part held in UK, which is a big chunk) in the event of a no deal Brexit. I don't understand the issue. It may be that it is all spin around the Brexit story, but the idea seems to be that the debts held in the UK assume that the UK is an EU nation, and if it isn't then the legal framework fails and they have to be moved. The problem is that there is no appetite for buying up great chunks of eurozone debt, so if the debt has to be moved from the UK its not clear where else it could go. The risk is that the markets would call time on these debts.

Surely there must be some other interpretation. However we have to hope that specialists do look at it. If it isn't an issue, great.

We are going to struggle a bit also jase with household debt in the near future. Like you there, in the US the domestic property market seems to be driving the economy. Problem is this is mostly done on borrowed coin. The US bond market is rising to keep pace with their ever increasing debt....which makes it more difficult for overseas banks to access money....The reserve bank here has not increased rates....yet banks themselves here are beginning too... to keep in the game.

While we here have a reasonably diverse economy, food, mineral, gas, education etc. I personally do not think it will catch up to the increasing borrowings.

It scares me a bit because interest rates everywhere are at historical lows. Not increasing at a rate because reserve banks are afraid, or caught in a position where if they did increase would stall growth. Especially with speak of trade wars, seperation of nations.... is continuing and looming.

What are your thoughts on this. Manufacturing here is reasonable, although like in many western nations have become dependent on cheaply made goods from nations of poorly paid workforces for much of our household goods. Poor quality they may be, but it seems only what many now are able to afford as wages have not grown.

50 years have gone by since this began...I'm hesitant to say another 50 may pass to correct it, or for diplomats work something out before we all challenge each other in other places.

Bit of a dilemma jase. One the economic world has not seen. Me personally, it was bound to happen as we keep following the same economic path as we have for generations. It is not keeping in step with other advances in society.

It's a bit of a worry.

 

[185248]

Picture of Brexiter or Brexiteer trying to escape................seems, keeping the poulace mute is the option on the subject.

 

[Jason]

It's a bit of a worry.

Agreed!

 

[Jason]

We threw the Quid away on the 14th of February 1966....

Interesting to see these clips - thanks for posting. The UK and Ireland decimalised a few years later, 15th Feb 1971. The decline in the mental arithmetic skills of the population dates from then! Curiously the UK has retained one quirk of the old system, the guinea. This is £1.05. It is still a unit of account in horse-racing and in some livestock auctions. If you buy a race-horse or a ram you will probably buy it in guineas.

After Brexit we are moving to the Imperial Brexit Doubloon which will be worth £240 (as the pound was worth 240 pennies).

 

[798686]

Hmm, if the UK had joined the euro, we'd now have a 10% lower standard of living.

Conversely, if Italy had retained its own currency, it would have living standards similar to those enjoyed in the UK.

Interesting thing, monetary sovereignty.

Italy Without the Euro Would Not Be Argentina or Turkey—It Would Be the U.K.

 

[798686]

Irish deputy PM says britain cannot afford a no deal outcome. No doubt some on here would claim that the Uk could survive no deal, but it is obvious from what he has said that the EU does not believe that.

He also said ireland would suport an extension of the article 50 deadline, if Britain was showing commitment to the process. however at the moment the UK government is still just arguing with itself.

'UK can't afford no-deal Brexit'

Who gives a shit what Ireland thinks?

I read a commentary in today's paper from someone so horrified by Varadkar's EU arse licking that he's proclaimed himself ashamed to be Irish.

Apparently, being Brussels' poodle is totally incongruous to their usually slightly rebellious nature.

Mind you, anything to be patronising to the UK...

 

[798686]

Government planning to stockpile drugs in case of a no deal Brexit. NHS to stockpile drugs for no deal Brexit

Also planning for having to fly in drugs in case ports are jammed. Though how that works if we are locked out of flying in the EU (or indeed rest of the world) I don know.

Don't worry. We're a world leader in pharmaceuticals. Don't fall for everything you read - especially if it conveniently supports your world view.

Could be an actual job in it for you though, if we end up having to make more stuff ourselves...

 

[Jason]

Ireland is not well served by Varadkar. The economic interest of Ireland is for there to be a Brexit agreement, yet it suits Varadkar's Fine Gael supporters to play tough.

I'm looking for material which contrasts Ireland's level of autonomy in 1918 with that in 2018. I suspect Ireland had greater autonomy a century ago.

 

[Jason]

Don't worry. We're a world leader in pharmaceuticals. Don't fall for everything you read - especially if it conveniently supports your world view.

Could be an actual job in it for you though, if we end up having to make more stuff ourselves...

Another big pharmaceutical producer is Switzerland. Most of what we don't produce ourselves comes from Switzerland.

 

[dandelion]

This weeks hot weather has given us a taste of Brexit. Huge delays at ports, flight cancellations.

 

[798686]

This weeks hot weather has given us a taste of Brexit. Huge delays at ports, flight cancellations.

It's given us a taste of climate change.

And we've weathered it fairly well, all things considered. As with most things - the more frequently it occurs, the better we'll adapt to dealing with it.