Boris Johnson continues the conservative campaign to stop Brexit.
The conservatives strategy hasnt changed from Cameron to May to Johnson. The idea is to claim to support Brexit, but to make sure it never happens. If the conservatives say they support brexit but somehow they are prevented from doing it, they lock in leave voters supporting them forever. To work, they must never deliver Brexit.
The first step was a promise of a referendum. But the tories expected to lose the election where they promised it, and if they won their liberal partners would block one. libs lost and con got a majority after all, so that didnt work. Having won, thy kinda had to deliver a referendum, but plenty of ways yet to stop brexit.
Next they held a non binding referendum, which even the suprememe court said could not be binding because it didnt include every british citizen who was affected. It was the least binding version they could get away with.
They confidently expected remain to win. but because remain did not try very hard leave won (if they tried harder, it would have meant con MPs attacking their own party policy, for example on allowing immigration, so they didnt.). Boris was filmed looking horrified the day after. The clown had won when he was meant to lose.
The government stalled for six months despite having promised to act immediately. Then they gave notice to leave to show willing, but held an election promising a hard brexit. The rhetoric was leave, but their hard line was intended to scare away soft brexiteers who might have changed their minds. Their accompanying manifesto promised more economic pain, and they even threatened to tax their main support group, pensioners, and bring back hunting to upset conservationists. They left an open goal for labour on all matters aside from brexit. The conservatives in effect held a second referendum on Brexit, hoping to lose, and they nearly did. Not quite, but they did give more power to opponents of Brexit.
Government negotiated a deal. In the process they wasted every minute they could to use up the 2 years negotiating time and ensure parliament would be under time pressure. Not because time allowed them to force though something, but because it forced the opposition to oppose them. The deal itself contained a number of things leavers hated. It does not achieve what leavers said they wanted as it makes the Uk a vassal state of the EU. That was the point of negotiating it, to prove an acceptable deal could not be negotiated. One strand of the leave campaign was to promise a marvellous deal. The aim here was to prove that had been a lie..and to presuade soft leavers to become remainers. In a modest way, it worked.
Parliament rejected the deal and forced the conservative government to extend the deadline. May had proved the deal was awful, but she had little credibility left with hard leave voters and support was tumbling. Change of leader needed. Not to change policy, which has always been to defeat leave. But to make a change of image credible and get back those foolish leave voters
So enter the clown again. BJs job to push a hard brexit, because the deal has been rejected by leave supporters (well everyone really, 6% national support in polling). But at the same time conservatives have still divided themselves into two camps. Both say they want brexit, but one half says hard leave is unacceptable, the other that soft leave is unacceptable. The two sides have ruthlessly attacked brexit in the name of furthering brexit.
Boris has made wilder and wilder statements aimed at offending remainers and soft brexiteers, insisting on a no deal exit from the EU. MPs are near unanimous this must not happen. He has torn up the constitution offending traditionalists and voters. An unprecedented number of conservative MPs rebelled yesterday, including two former chancellors and Winston Churchill's grandson. Life long conservatives, who being interviewed stated they are still conservatives as they have always been, but the party has become right wing extremists. Ken Clarke stated maybe only 20 MPs want a no deal brexit. The government calling for this to happen is a sham and they have never wanted it to happen. The entire pantomime was aimed at giving the impressions of going for brexit at any cost, but in reality to force parliament to stand against it. Enough conservatives had to be given cover to help labour by increasing their numbers. While they have been thrown out now, in a year they will be back in the party (if brexit is settled, that is. Cameron too said he is planning a post brexit comeback).
The conservatives cannot bring in the deal, because the country has rejected it. In particular, hard leave have rejected it and it was them this whole process was aimed at pleasing. This was where May came unstuck. They cannot bring in hard leave because it would destroy the Uk economy. What they could do is claim to be as rabidly leave as Farage and force veryone else to unite against them. So now parliament is seeking to force the government not to leave the EU without its consent by using emergency legislation. In reaction, BJ is demanding an election. If he gets one, he stands a chance of losing and so ending the torture of the conservative party, because they could then say they had no power to bring in brexit, they had thrown it away. (well, probably would not say they had THROWN it away, but they did.)
It seems likely parliament will get its emergency legislation. If they do, then is has in effect made a decision that the Uk should not leave the EU with no deal. A small step towards resolving the situation. There are only a couple of ways to proceed. Either cancel brexit arbitrarily, or have another referendum asking people if they want a particular form of brexit, or to cancel the whole thing.
