Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

[southeastone]

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Guido Fawkes - Media Bias/Fact Check

That is called shooting the messenger.

 

[southeastone]

Presumably the very same Brexiteers who have so evidently and publicly struggled with the math all the way along

Like Dr Liam Fox, who had planned on doing trade with martians, because there wasn't enough trade in the entirety of this planet to make his figures work...

A bit like BoJo and his budget balancing the comedy never ends!

How is your guy doing in the polls?

 

[dandelion]

The starting point is that the EU is putting in place a string of obstacles before it will even begin to think about starting to talk about a full trade deal. Subsequently any trade deal would have to be one where the UK agrees to EU protectionism, and therefore signs up to policies which are creating unemployment and poverty.

So.. in yout view, the EU is putting up lots of obsacles to a deal. Explain to me how that sounds like the EU is deperate for a deal and we dont care whether we get one or not?

To me, it sounds like they know they can dictate whatever terms they want. lucky for us they will not abuse that situation, and will only ask for the same terms other members of the EU have all agreed to.

UK. Markets have largely priced in the minimal deal outcome.

Er no. Uk markets seem to have priced in that there will be a deal leaving the Uk close to the EU. Many people have said anything else is unthinkable.

Assuming there is just a minimal deal then the Irish economy is going to be very badly hit.

You are again missing the point. brexit will push N. Ireland into reunifications with the south. That is quite a prize. meanwhile, the South is arguably the most attractive place for industry departing the Uk because of Brexit to go to. They will do very well from brexit in the end.

 

[g0nz0]

How is your guy doing in the polls?

Which guy might that be, then, Ted? As I don't know that I got a guy...

 

[g0nz0]

That is called shooting the messenger.

More a case of questioning the untrustworthy liar. Depending on the messenger, you might find the message often gets lost...

Populism is all about the post facts, right? Isn't it the false religion that is promoting no facts and no experts? Or was that just that numpty Michael Gove on another of his solo runs?

 

[Jason]

A recent poll in UK (Opinium) has Con 47%, Lab 30%. This is a big improvement on the General Election. If you want to play silly games with the figures add the Brexit Party and the (tiny) UKIP numbers and it is 50% backing parties that are unequivocably pro Brexit.

The Remoaners shout loudly, but the reality is that Brexit is happening and with a lot of support.

Meanwhile Labour and LibDem are both going through slow processes to select new leaders. Lab is in the ghastly position where Corbyn is still leader, so hasn't gone away.

The EHRC has not announced a date for the outcome of its investigation into Labour anti-Semitism. If the result is against Labour then there will be a flood of legal cases against Labour from victims of anti-Semitism. These are going to get lots of media coverage, and will presumably lead to fines against Labour (which will be huge).

The world has changed. The UK has a clear Conservative majority. Brexit is happening. And the Labour Party might do us all a favour by tearing itself apart or going bankrupt, or both.

 

[Jason]

brexit will push N. Ireland into reunifications with the south.

LOL!

The South does NOT want NI. Oh I know it is part of the national mythology of Ireland that they want reunification of Ireland, but politicians and people are beyond horrified at the idea. Dear Republic of Ireland, would you prefer reunification or a bullet in the head? The bullet it is!

NI is just short of 2m people, Ireland just short of 5m. This suggests NI would contribute ballpark 30% of MPs in the parliament of a reunited Ireland. It is very likely that any Irish coalition would involve NI parties, either Sinn Fein (a party of north and south), so a Marxist and terrorist-sympathising party playing a role, or indeed Unionists holding the balance of power.

There's also the civil disobedience issue. Some members of the Unionist community would be impossible. How would Ireland plan to deal with this? There's the Unionist idea that in the event of a move for reunification either the whole of NI or parts of it would declare independence (an independent nation). The last thing the people of the Republic of Ireland want is to have anything to do with this mess

Poor NI. Great Britain really doesn't want NI. The youth of England and Wales certainly don't (and only the Rangers supporters in Scotland). And Republic of Ireland doesn't want NI either. And let's face it, an independent NI would be a disaster for everyone.

Ireland will do absolutely anything to stop this happening. If they have to fund the DUP to achieve this goal they will do it.

 

[g0nz0]

I don't want a United Ireland for some of the reasons Jason mentioned, but a majority here do it seems...

Personally I'd rather float it off into the North Atlantic. It's a dysfunctional economy and society, suffering from ghe addiction of too many years drip fed by the Crown ... like many other (mostly former, at this stage) colonies, the UK broke it, historically, and I'm unconvinced that there is any way of fixing it.

What is also interesting is that nobody here expects Brexit will affect the Irish Republic anywhere near as bad as the UK seems to be proclaiming in faux-concern for negotiating leverage. We've spent many years diversifying our economy and are very much more exposed to the vagaries of the global economy than to trade with the UK.

 

[Jason]

The effects of Brexit on Republic of Ireland fall into three categories:

1) Full deal. Presumably little effect on Ireland, maybe even a positive.
2) Limited deal. Some damage to Ireland.
3) No deal. Significant damage to Ireland. Some pundits suggest cataclysmic damage.

I think people in UK do care about Ireland. We're all a bit Irish! Very many have Irish relatives and friends. Ireland matters. There's no wish for Ireland to be hurt.

The path of Ireland will be determined by its people and the direction they give politicians. My logic is that Ireland should be the biggest cheer-leader for a deal because that helps Ireland. But it's all the decision of the people of Ireland. And if there is no deal I hope the effects to the people of Ireland are less bad than some suggest.

Look forward a decade and I think we will see UK economy out-performing EU (which is protectionist and tied up in red tape) and therefore NI far richer than Ireland. This will push through into people's thinking about issues including reunification.

 

[g0nz0]

The effects of Brexit on Republic of Ireland fall into three categories:

1) Full deal. Presumably little effect on Ireland, maybe even a positive.
2) Limited deal. Some damage to Ireland.
3) No deal. Significant damage to Ireland. Some pundits suggest cataclysmic damage.

I think people in UK do care about Ireland. We're all a bit Irish! Very many have Irish relatives and friends. Ireland matters. There's no wish for Ireland to be hurt.

The path of Ireland will be determined by its people and the direction they give politicians. My logic is that Ireland should be the biggest cheer-leader for a deal because that helps Ireland. But it's all the decision of the people of Ireland. And if there is no deal I hope the effects to the people of Ireland are less bad than some suggest.

Look forward a decade and I think we will see UK economy out-performing EU (which is protectionist and tied up in red tape) and therefore NI far richer than Ireland. This will push through into people's thinking about issues including reunification.

1. Full deal - limited effect if any;
2. Limited deal - some damage, some positive.
3. No deal - some pundits suggest this is a large opportunity for Ireland as the only native English speaking country left in the EU. I guess they are different pundits to your pundits. I shan't bother with source links as you don't seem to - we are post-fact, after all.

Thankfully, nobody here in Ireland would subscribe to your illogical suggestions. Even Farage got scant succour here in his attempts at forming an Irexit movement. We are apparently the most pro-Europe of the bunch! Ireland is a cheerleader only for a deal that works for the EU. The EU is now negotiating (or will be, come 1st Feb) with a third party country. The UK is now no different to Canada or the US - a trading partner to negotiate the best possible deal (for Europe) with. That means you, by your own volition, are very squarely at the other side of the table to us and the rest of our European colleagues and partners. The easy days of negotiating a withdrawal agreement are behind us, now its gloves-off horse trading and bartering for a trade agreement.

The British will again most likely try the old trick of waving a fish in front of the Spanish, and financial services in front of the Luxembourgers. This failed spectacularly during the withdrawal. The old British colonial idea of divide and rule ultimately failed in India, and it will not work in negotiations against the EU, despite whatever whiff-whaff Boris dreams up. His dribbly prose might tickle you guys like a feather, but it is very much lost in translation in the rest of Europe, and we don't find him half as entertaining as you might like

NI far richer than Ireland? you crack me up. They were once, but under British rule for the past 100 years they've gotten successively poorer! Their society is fractured (much like the rest of the UK), their structural problems are immense, plus they fight with their own fingernails. Whereas the Republic is still the EU's fastest growing economy (has been for past 5 years in a row).

@Jason, you really do sound like Delboy Trotter. "This time, next year, Rodney, we'll be millionaires". Whereas the evidence of history strongly suggests the opposite

With BoJo's stated goal of distancing the UK from European regulations, I think the chances of any sort of a trade agreement are only 50/50 at best, and receding rapidly with every fart that emanates from BoJo's lips. A hard Brexit, falling back (or not) on the provisions on the Withdrawal Agreement, such as they may be, is the most likely outcome at this stage.

 

[g0nz0]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-10/-170-billion-and-counting-the-cost-of-brexit-for-the-u-k

Research by Bloomberg Economics estimates that the economic cost of Brexit has already hit 130 billion pounds ($170 billion), with a further 70 billion pounds set to be added by the end of this year.

https://www.businessinsider.de/international/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1/

Figures from the House of Commons Library put the UK’s total projected contribution to the EU budget from 1973 to 2020 at £215 billion after adjusting for inflation.

That means the combined cost of Brexit since 2016 is likely to soon eclipse the total cost of the EU’s budget payments, which were a central part of the Leave campaign’s case for Brexit in the first place.

"Tally Ho!" indeed. Off to a flying start.

 

[southeastone]

More a case of questioning the untrustworthy liar. Depending on the messenger, you might find the message often gets lost...

Populism is all about the post facts, right? Isn't it the false religion that is promoting no facts and no experts? Or was that just that numpty Michael Gove on another of his solo runs?

You consider the IMF an untrustworthy liar? Ok.

 

[southeastone]

Which guy might that be, then, Ted? As I don't know that I got a guy...

Well you seem to assume Boris is our guy so I was doing likewise with little Leo, is he not in charge?

 

[Viking_UK]

Has she not paid national insurance? that is the main way they prove residence.

Yeah, all paid up, but she's been self-employed for the last 15 years or so and NI payments are taken in a different way than if you're PAYE so they don't take that into account. Class 2 used to come off by monthly direct debit with class 4 being part of the tax return so there's no indication of where you were when you earned the money. Now, it's all part of the tax return, so still no indication of residence.

 

[RazorsEdge]

Yeah, all paid up, but she's been self-employed for the last 15 years or so and NI payments are taken in a different way than if you're PAYE so they don't take that into account. Class 2 used to come off by monthly direct debit with class 4 being part of the tax return so there's no indication of where you were when you earned the money. Now, it's all part of the tax return, so still no indication of residence.

Appeal that, I have a self employed friend who only had to quote her NI and got her residence in days.

 

[Viking_UK]

Appeal that, I have a self employed friend who only had to quote her NI and got her residence in days.

She has appealed and that was rejected - not sure why.

 

[RazorsEdge]

She has appealed and that was rejected - not sure why.

That's a shame, the number of rejects is tiny and the parameters are pretty wide for the burden of proof, maybe her UK earning were sporadic.

Sure she will get it sorted. Has she spoken to the Gov helpline, they are brilliant, also there is a separate charity helpline who are good. Let me know if she needs the details and I will get them off my friend, she didn't need them but they were all supplied to her.

 

[RazorsEdge]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-10/-170-billion-and-counting-the-cost-of-brexit-for-the-u-k

Research by Bloomberg Economics estimates that the economic cost of Brexit has already hit 130 billion pounds ($170 billion), with a further 70 billion pounds set to be added by the end of this year.

https://www.businessinsider.de/international/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1/

Figures from the House of Commons Library put the UK’s total projected contribution to the EU budget from 1973 to 2020 at £215 billion after adjusting for inflation.

That means the combined cost of Brexit since 2016 is likely to soon eclipse the total cost of the EU’s budget payments, which were a central part of the Leave campaign’s case for Brexit in the first place.

"Tally Ho!" indeed. Off to a flying start.

Quotes Bloomberg as a reliable source,

 

[RazorsEdge]

Brexit latest news: Britain's EU departure confirmed as Boris Johnson's Withdrawal Bill clears final hurdle

 

[g0nz0]

Well you seem to assume Boris is our guy so I was doing likewise with little Leo, is he not in charge?

Little Leo? hmmm... Should it not be little tubby BoJo? Leo's head and shoulders taller, and a tad fitter. BoJo looks like the guy who's hitting the greasy spoon and the G&Ts a little too hard.

Leo is unlikely to get back in, in my opinion, but that's not of any concern to me. I don't think too highly of any of them. The one good thing we've had is a national unity in terms of our approach to dealing with the negotiations of Brexit from the EU perspective.