Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis part 2 - Ireland

[dandelion]

The issue of fishing in UK waters affects mainly France and Spain, to a small extent Belgium and Netherlands. In monetary terms it is tiny for these economies. Spain has been quiet on this issue, and Belgium and Netherlands may have decided that it really is such a tiny issue they are just not saying much. In effect France is saying give French fishing boats perpetual free access to all UK waters or there will be no deal.

Fishing is totally and utterly irrelevant to anyones national interest. That this has become central to the talks indicates the have nothing to do with economics.

This evening Boris went to dinner and the menu was fish followed by fish. If that isnt a political statement, I dont know what is. Apart from taking the piss, it might be saying if you want the fish, you can have it, but dont expect anything else. It is Britain's sovereign right to have all the fish, but not to have europe.

The EU has a range of deals it can make while maintaining its internal rules. These have not changed from 5 years ago. Its position has always been consistent. But it has never had anything whatever to gain from walking away from talks. It looks better to keep talking to the very last second. And then resume afterwards. The job of Eu negotiators is to get the best deal for the EU they can.

The UK government surrendered to the hard leave faction a year ago. It may be 1/4 or less of people, but they are the ones who voted for it and put them in power. So what 3/4 want or what is in the economic interest of the Uk, or what makes any kind of objective sense is completely irrelevant. They promised to deliver hard brexit and the slogan 'no deal is better than a bad deal' is again being touted. Its nonsene, unless you hate the EU and that is your driving aim. Its a very Russian centric mentality.

Tories from the day of the referndum have had to decided whether to do what makes sense, or what they committed to do. They have tried every avenue to turn away from brexit, but the choice has always come down to either stay in power and do hard brexit, or lose power. Cameron saw that at once, and resigned. many others have followed. Its the fanatics running the show now.

The interest of the Uk government has always been no deal, but also no blame. If the economy collapses thats game over politically. Following a suicide economic plan ceases to be a vote winner once the public sees it for what it is. But so far they dont. To cancel brexit now would see the conservatves out of power for a generation. No point doing that then.

Con have delayed and delayed this point as long as possible, but the game is pretty much up now. About the only play left is to deliver hard brexit. After it runs into an unmitigated disaster next year, then they can change policy to rejoin. Imporantly, there is time to change to rejoin before the next election. but you cannot at this moment say this is your plan, or give any indication you expected brexit to be disastrous. if you say rejoin is really the plan then you offend the leavers who are most of your voters.. if you say you expect it to be disastrous but then do it anyway and it is, then you offend everyone because you trashed th economy deliberately.

 

[Jason]

We all know the referendum result of 52/48. We should have gone for a soft Brexit, in effect May's Brexit Together, the sort of Brexit that would have been acceptable to many Remainers and many Leavers. We needed Labour to be willing to vote for a compromise.

Instead we had Labour determined to sabotage everything that the Conservatives tried. The result was that Labour ruled out a soft Brexit, apparently following the idea of stop Brexit. Right now if Johnson does get a deal it is likely that some Conservative MPs will not support it. It could be the case that Johnson would need Labour votes to get it through. Presumably Labour will back it.

If there is a deal offered it is likely to be far harder than the May deal that Labour rejected. Labour must wish they could go back in time and vote for the May deal! The outcome now, whether hard Brexit or no deal ultra hard Brexit, is a creation of the Remainers.

 

[Freddie53]

In the short term I imagine the UK will tell everyone "if you bring Irish goods into NI you must fill in six forms in triplicate and jump through lots of hoops. But if you don't we won't do a thing".

In the medium term I think you are right that the EU will see this as a problem for trade through Ireland and NI not just to UK but to other nations the UK has agreements with. Potentially some Canadian product will be landed in Belfast and taken in a lorry through Ireland and by boat to France or Spain. It will cause all sorts of legal disputes.

You have a good point there. A Canadian drink which will costs X amount when imported to the EU from Canada will present a problem if that same drink can be imported to the UK and then get to cross over into the EU via the N H. and the tariff tax that is suppose to be paid is not paid. How that will eventually be dealt with may be a mystery.

Products today may have parts imported from several different companies. I remember a particular product in the US which proudly proclaimed "built in the US." Inside there were parts from 26 different nations!

The US food industry is now harvesting or raising food. Then it is sent to China for processing. Then it is returned to the US so people can eat it.

I can agree that there may be all sorts of legal questions. Here in the US it appears that a particular nation is selling products cheaper in the US than it is in the nation where it is made. Trade continues. Much bitching is done. Trade continues.

This may be what really will happen about those Canadian products slipping across the NI border. Bitching. Campaign Issue. More bitching. The Canadian drink continues to be imported to NI and then cross into Ireland, all free trade!

Keep in mind. The world is headed toward free trade. The world is more and more becoming integrated. I am wondering if it is even possible, much less probable for a nation in 2020 to set forth a completely sovereign trade arrangement with other nations. I don't mean that it can be done, but it will hurt the nation going against the rest of the world. I am wondering if it is even possible much less probable to do?

 

[seventiesdemon]

You have a good point there. A Canadian drink which will costs X amount when imported to the EU from Canada will present a problem if that same drink can be imported to the UK and then get to cross over into the EU via the N H. and the tariff tax that is suppose to be paid is not paid. How that will eventually be dealt with may be a mystery.



The US food industry is now harvesting or raising food. Then it is sent to China for processing. Then it is returned to the US so people can eat it.

I find the bit about the US sending food to China to be processed and back again odd..not odd, but why?.....I'm not aware we do that here and pretty sure we process most of our own.

We grow for 130 to 150 million people, probably more, yet we have a population of 27 mill, 70% or more is exported.

We import certain goods, mostly tinned and packets, it's made with the country of origins produce though. It's not good practice to export food to a country if you don't allow theirs in....free trade and all.

I buy US grapes and strawberries now and then when the season is out here. Last season some of the harvest was affected by bushfire smoke..for the wine side of it anyway.

In the UK I would think the Irish would be more concerned about how Brexit will affect their Whiskey trade

 

[Drifterwood]

Michael Gove criticised for wrongly claiming EHIC and Erasmus will survive ‘for a period’ after no-deal Brexit

Yep, there is yet another an example of a coubtry patently unprepared for the cluster fuck that will arrive on 1st January.

Give the Tory track record in handling the Covid-19 crises, I fear for what is going to happen over the next year, irrespective at this stage of whether a deal can be reached or not...

I can't speak for other UK businesses, but we are largely ignoring what the government is saying in our preparations.

This isn't because we are being recalcitrant, it is simply because what this government is telling us to do is highly unlikely to be what will actually happen, as we experienced with every other aspect of this government. So better to plan in the knowledge of your own business and market and then react to any changes that may happen when they happen.

There are perhaps hundreds of thousands of companies who followed Tory advice in the Covid crisis who may well now sink as a result. We've got good at best preparedness and then dealing with reality as it rolls out. If we have shortages, it won't be the production companies and logistic companies that get the blame. If we overspend to cover potentials that don't then happen, we get no benefit. Tories, your policy, you carry the consequences.

 

[eurotop40]

I can't speak for other UK businesses, but we are largely ignoring what the government is saying in our preparations.
This isn't because we are being recalcitrant, it is simply because what this government is telling us to do is highly unlikely to be what will actually happen, as we experienced with every other aspect of this government. So better to plan in the knowledge of your own business and market and then react to any changes that may happen when they happen.
There are perhaps hundreds of thousands of companies who followed Tory advice in the Covid crisis who may well now sink as a result. We've got good at best preparedness and then dealing with reality as it rolls out. If we have shortages, it won't be the production companies and logistic companies that get the blame. If we overspend to cover potentials that don't then happen, we get no benefit. Tories, your policy, you carry the consequences.

It seems to me that in many countries we have more and more incompetent governments of charlatans. They are able to get the votes but unable to do anything productive in time of crisis. This applies to the Swiss federal government as well as to the local ones: a bunch of charlatans whose incompetence has been masked so far by the influx of foreign capital looking for a shelter.

 

[Jason]

All sources are now suggesting no deal as the Brexit outcome. EU nations are discussing Brexit this evening and in theory anything could change, but I don't think anyone really expects this. Labour have specifically stated that Brexit cannot be stopped (correct). We really do have the insanity of all the missed deals that Labour wouldn't support, and opposition parties now forced to accept their least favoured outcome.

The pound is steady against the dollar at $1.33.

There's a lot of talk around a six month extension in transport movement freedom. Presumably this will happen. The EU wants a year's access to UK waters for fishing. Presumably the answer here is no. Johnson will be toast if he gives this.

Politicians seem to want to steer clear of discussion of the WA. However it is very hard to see how this can stand without a TA. The UK has always been of the view that the TA should be negotiated first. WA is part of Lisbon but the UK does not need it. We have an agreement necessary to enter into trade negotiations which (presumably) have now failed.

 

[Jason]

Erasmus: there isn't an agreement in place for the UK to continue with this scheme. It is not necessary to be in the EU to take part, though all EU nations do.

The UK university sector has reported that the number of students coming to UK is far great than UK students who go abroad. The difference is around £120m, which is enough to run a small university. Probably the UK will want to ditch most of Erasmus, possibly buying into a small part of it.

 

[g0nz0]

Erasmus: there isn't an agreement in place for the UK to continue with this scheme. It is not necessary to be in the EU to take part, though all EU nations do.

The UK university sector has reported that the number of students coming to UK is far great than UK students who go abroad. The difference is around £120m, which is enough to run a small university. Probably the UK will want to ditch most of Erasmus, possibly buying into a small part of it.

The point is Gove said incorrectly that it would continue. What else is he wrong about?

Great with the jingoism and rhetoric, and but not great on reality and details, these Tory Brexiteers..

 

[g0nz0]

It absolutely looks like no deal. Level playing field is a total red line for Europe, as it is needed to protect the market. I'm thrilled for some modicum of short term certainty one way or the other... thank fuck.

Brexit: Theresa May and Boris Johnson's words on the Irish border have come back to haunt them

Theresa May famously told the British Parliament that "no UK prime minister could ever agree" to a border in the Irish Sea.

Boris Johnson later told a Democratic Unionist Party conference that "no British Conservative government could or should sign up to any such arrangement".
​

And what do you think we now have?

And if they subsequently disregard or attempt to repudiate the WA, then how internationally will the word of an English man ever be taken seriously again?

Besides, given the UK's significant exports of goods and services to the EU, Boris a deal ultimately.

He might not get on by 31st Dec, but talks will certainly continue because they have to.

He really is a deliberately disingenuous toad though... a "Australian style deal" is just word salami to avoid saying what it is - NO deal... He looks under pressure and anxious on TV this evening, mostly because, whilst he has the full backing of the ERG, I think he knows he has fucked up his country's interests...

 

[eurotop40]

It absolutely looks like no deal. Level playing field is a total red line for Europe, as it is needed to protect the market. I'm thrilled for some modicum of short term certainty one way or the other... thank fuck.
Brexit: Theresa May and Boris Johnson's words on the Irish border have come back to haunt them

Theresa May famously told the British Parliament that "no UK prime minister could ever agree" to a border in the Irish Sea.
Boris Johnson later told a Democratic Unionist Party conference that "no British Conservative government could or should sign up to any such arrangement".​

And what do you think we now have?
And if they subsequently disregard or attempt to repudiate the WA, then how internationally will the word of an English man ever be taken seriously again?
Besides, given the UK's significant exports of goods and services to the EU, Boris a deal ultimately.
He might not get on by 31st Dec, but talks will certainly continue because they have to.
He really is a deliberately disingenuous toad though... a "Australian style deal" is just word salami to avoid saying what it is - NO deal... He looks under pressure and anxious on TV this evening, mostly because, whilst he has the full backing of the ERG, I think he knows he has fucked up his country's interests...

That's what you get when you elect charlatans that have majored in history and similar bullshit.
Germany is doing much better - with the hatred of many in the UK - because their politicians are mostly scientists, such as Merkel (fat arse but fine head) or von der Leyen.
The time in which the white (British) man would go to Asia/Africa/America and be revered just for being white is definitely over. Sorry to say this because I am white too (although neither blond hair nor blue eyes).

 

[Jason]

The point is Gove said incorrectly that it would continue. What else is he wrong about?

Great with the jingoism and rhetoric, and but not great on reality and details, these Tory Brexiteers..

I'm not convinced that the issue is as big as the media would like to suggest. Erasmus runs on academic years. Nations like Norway which join in with Erasmus do so on the basis of agreements made around March for Oct-Sep. The UK will need to decide whether to be a part. Gove has said it will continue, which is a decision.

We don't yet have an announcement on deal or no deal. If no deal then presumably there will be an announcement in a few weeks that UK will join in.

 

[Jason]

It absolutely looks like no deal. Level playing field is a total red line for Europe, as it is needed to protect the market. I'm thrilled for some modicum of short term certainty one way or the other... thank fuck.

Brexit: Theresa May and Boris Johnson's words on the Irish border have come back to haunt them

Theresa May famously told the British Parliament that "no UK prime minister could ever agree" to a border in the Irish Sea.

Boris Johnson later told a Democratic Unionist Party conference that "no British Conservative government could or should sign up to any such arrangement".
​

And what do you think we now have?

And if they subsequently disregard or attempt to repudiate the WA, then how internationally will the word of an English man ever be taken seriously again?

Besides, given the UK's significant exports of goods and services to the EU, Boris a deal ultimately.

He might not get on by 31st Dec, but talks will certainly continue because they have to.

He really is a deliberately disingenuous toad though... a "Australian style deal" is just word salami to avoid saying what it is - NO deal... He looks under pressure and anxious on TV this evening, mostly because, whilst he has the full backing of the ERG, I think he knows he has fucked up his country's interests...

I assume we have no deal. And of course this means no level playing field, no necessary ECJ role in resolving disputes and no EU fishing access to UK waters.

Repudiation of the WA would be of little interest to most nations outside UK,and EU. It just isn't going to be too of anyone's list as a problem. Boris has been clear on no Irish Sea border. WA has to go.

 

[DiamondJoe]

I assume we have no deal. And of course this means no level playing field, no necessary ECJ role in resolving disputes and no EU fishing access to UK waters.

Repudiation of the WA would be of little interest to most nations outside UK,and EU. It just isn't going to be too of anyone's list as a problem. Boris has been clear on no Irish Sea border. WA has to go.

I'm surprised you don't sound happier, @Jason ?

 

[dandelion]

We all know the referendum result of 52/48. We should have gone for a soft Brexit, in effect May's Brexit Together, the sort of Brexit that would have been acceptable to many Remainers and many Leavers. We needed Labour to be willing to vote for a compromise.

May's brexit was not acceptable to remainers. thats why it failed. Neither side wanted it, and nor did the public when polled. Frankly it is bonkers to continue to follow EU trade rules but leave the management and control part of the EU where we get to make those rules.

It seems to me that in many countries we have more and more incompetent governments of charlatans. They are able to get the votes but unable to do anything productive in time of crisis.

A real problem is politicians are most interested in their careers, not in good government. If bad government helps you get elected, or boosts your retirement fund, then they are likely to go that way. Maybe there should be a ban on any elecetd politician retiring to a highly paid private sector job afterwards. In the UK the current conservatives have secured 10 years in power in well paid jobs having fun running the country by promising Brexit. Doesnt really matter whether it ends up as a disaster for the country, they got the 10 years of well paid jobs. Who wouldnt?

 

[dandelion]

There's a lot of talk around a six month extension in transport movement freedom. Presumably this will happen.

I gather that as things stand, it will not be possible to travel to the EU on business. So any trade which relies on going to the EU to provide a service will now not be possible. Anyone wanting to do so will have to get relevant permissions from the country (countries) they wish to visit.

The UK did have a trade surplus in services with the EU, but this is what will be hit hardest by Brexit. Whereas bulk imports of goods might be subject to a modest tariff, but otherwise be unaffected.

leavers have talked about the trade deficit with the EU, but this is set to get worse.

 

[dandelion]

and no EU fishing access to UK waters.

Half out quota was aready sold to EU cuntries, and presumably they will still be able to use it to fish and land catch in their home ports. Whereas our fishermen have the wrong equipment to take much of the new available catch, and nowhere to sell it except the EU anyway.

Likey outcome a decline in the Uk fishing industry.

You are also forgetting its the same fish whether in UK or EU waters. if the French choose to continue fishing in their waters and deplete fish there, more fish from Uk waters will naturally move into them because there arent any fish there. If the EU just had one square mile in the middle of the entire north sea otherwise controlled by the UK, they could catch nearly as much fish. It isnt simply about the surface area of sea you control. There has to be agreement on how much each party can fish bearing in mind anyone with a modest amount of sea access could catch all the fish.

 

[g0nz0]

I'm not convinced that the issue is as big as the media would like to suggest. Erasmus runs on academic years. Nations like Norway which join in with Erasmus do so on the basis of agreements made around March for Oct-Sep. The UK will need to decide whether to be a part. Gove has said it will continue, which is a decision.

We don't yet have an announcement on deal or no deal. If no deal then presumably there will be an announcement in a few weeks that UK will join in.

Haha, @Jason, you're such an apologist for their bumblings.

Gove said that Erasmus and EHIC would continue for a period of time - obviously talking out of his arse, something he seems well practiced at.

BTW, these were promised all the way along to be protected... Surprising now that EHIC is still one of many things flapping in the wind.

I assume we have no deal. And of course this means no level playing field, no necessary ECJ role in resolving disputes and no EU fishing access to UK waters.

Repudiation of the WA would be of little interest to most nations outside UK,and EU. It just isn't going to be too of anyone's list as a problem. Boris has been clear on no Irish Sea border. WA has to go.

This is the one of the greatest loads of codswallop you've ever tried to peddle here. Boris has been as clear about this as he has on anything else... clear as mud.

The UK so far as trumpeted its trading deals - despite Liz Truss' T, these have been replications by and large of trading arrangements that they already had access to as part of the EU.

I get that Brexit is an emotive issue in the Brexiteer psyche rather than a logical one, and so I'm taking it that to have a break from EU responsibilities and obligations, with trade continuing as close to unaffected as possible would be considered a win... But in order to make any sort of a win out of Brexit, the UK really had set its sights on a deal with the US. Just look at the pandering to Trump over the past 4 years.

And yet the Democrats and now President-Elect Joe Biden laid out pretty strongly that no only is there not a quick deal, but there is no prospect of a deal if it threatens peace on the island of Ireland, and by extension the WA.

This is all quite apart from sullying your names the reputational damage to your international standing by repudiating an agreement and been seen to not have signed up in good faith, but instead solely as a negotiating tactic. Perfidious Albion and all that... I guess England in particular already has a track history of this going back centuries.

L'Angleterre, ah, la perfide Angleterre,
que le rempart de ses mers rendoit inaccessible aux Romains,
la foi du Sauveur y est abordée.

 

[g0nz0]

As regards the so-called Australian deal,

"It’ll be pretty disappointing, I think you’ll find out...

"It (the EU) is our third-biggest trading partner collectively, because it’s such a big economy, but there are very big barriers to Australian exports of agricultural products in particular. There’s a lot of friction in the system in terms of services...

"So be careful what you wish for..."

Malcolm Turnball, former Prime Minister of Australia

Brexit: Malcolm Turnbull tells UK 'be careful what you wish for' over EU trade

 

[eurotop40]

As regards the so-called Australian deal,
"It’ll be pretty disappointing, I think you’ll find out...
"It (the EU) is our third-biggest trading partner collectively, because it’s such a big economy, but there are very big barriers to Australian exports of agricultural products in particular. There’s a lot of friction in the system in terms of services...
"So be careful what you wish for..."
Malcolm Turnball, former Prime Minister of Australia
Brexit: Malcolm Turnbull tells UK 'be careful what you wish for' over EU trade

BoJo is simply a well networked (freemason?) posh buffoon with a questionable Oxford history background. Period.
What is worrying is that - similarly to Trump's followers - a good chunk of the electorate believes in his stupid statements.